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China’s Pipelineistan “War”
Anteing Up, Betting, and Bluffing in the New Great Game
Future historians may well agree that the twenty-first century Silk Road first opened for business on December 14, 2009. That was the day a crucial stretch of pipeline officially went into operation linking the fabulously energy-rich state of Turkmenistan (via Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) to Xinjiang Province in China’s far west. Hyperbole did not deter the spectacularly named Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, Turkmenistan’s president, from bragging, “This project has not only commercial or economic value. It is also political. China, through its wise and farsighted policy, has become one of the key guarantors of global security.”
The bottom line is that, by 2013, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong will be cruising to ever more dizzying economic heights courtesy of natural gas supplied by the 1,833-kilometer-long Central Asia Pipeline, then projected to be operating at full capacity. And to think that, in a few more years, China’s big cities will undoubtedly also be getting a taste of Iraq’s fabulous, barely tapped oil reserves, conservatively estimated at 115 billion barrels, but possibly closer to 143 billion barrels, which would put it ahead of Iran. When the Bush administration’s armchair generals launched their Global War on Terror, this was not exactly what they had in mind.
China’s economy is thirsty, and so it’s drinking deeper and planning deeper yet. It craves Iraq’s oil and Turkmenistan’s natural gas, as well as oil from Kazakhstan. Yet instead of spending more than a trillion dollars on an illegal war in Iraq or setting up military bases all over the Greater Middle East and Central Asia, China used its state oil companies to get some of the energy it needed simply by bidding for it in a perfectly legal Iraqi oil auction.
Meanwhile, in the New Great Game in Eurasia, China had the good sense not to send a soldier anywhere or get bogged down in an infinite quagmire in Afghanistan. Instead, the Chinese simply made a direct commercial deal with Turkmenistan and, profiting from that country’s disagreements with Moscow, built itself a pipeline which will provide much of the natural gas it needs.
No wonder the Obama administration’s Eurasian energy czar Richard Morningstar was forced to admit at a congressional hearing that the U.S. simply cannot compete with China when it comes to Central Asia’s energy wealth. If only he had delivered the same message to the Pentagon.
That Iranian Equation
In Beijing, they take the matter of diversifying oil supplies very, very seriously. When oil reached $150 a barrel in 2008 -- before the U.S.-unleashed global financial meltdown hit -- Chinese state media had taken to calling foreign Big Oil “international petroleum crocodiles,” with the implication that the West’s hidden agenda was ultimately to stop China’s relentless development dead in its tracks.
Twenty-eight percent of what’s left of the world’s proven oil reserves are in the Arab world. China could easily gobble it all up. Few may know that China itself is actually the world’s fifth largest oil producer, at 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd), just below Iran and slightly above Mexico. In 1980, China consumed only 3% of the world’s oil. Now, its take is around 10%, making it the planet’s second largest consumer. It has already surpassed Japan in that category, even if it’s still way behind the U.S., which eats up 27% of global oil each year. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China will account for over 40% of the increase in global oil demand until 2030. And that’s assuming China will grow at “only” a 6% annual rate which, based on present growth, seems unlikely.
Saudi Arabia controls 13% of world oil production. At the moment, it is the only swing producer -- one, that is, that can move the amount of oil being pumped up or down at will -- capable of substantially increasing output. It’s no accident, then, that, pumping 500,000 bpd, it has become one of Beijing’s major oil suppliers. The top three, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce, are Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Angola. By 2013-2014, if all goes well, the Chinese expect to add Iraq to that list in a big way, but first that troubled country’s oil production needs to start cranking up. In the meantime, it’s the Iranian part of the Eurasian energy equation that’s really nerve-racking for China’s leaders.
Chinese companies have invested a staggering $120 billion in Iran's energy sector over the past five years. Already Iran is China’s number two oil supplier, accounting for up to 14% of its imports; and the Chinese energy giant Sinopec has committed an additional $6.5 billion to building oil refineries there. Due to harsh U.N.-imposed and American sanctions and years of economic mismanagement, however, the country lacks the high-tech know-how to provide for itself, and its industrial structure is in a shambles. The head of the National Iranian Oil Company, Ahmad Ghalebani, has publicly admitted that machinery and parts used in Iran’s oil production still have to be imported from China.
Sanctions can be a killer, slowing investment, increasing the cost of trade by over 20%, and severely constricting Tehran’s ability to borrow in global markets. Nonetheless, trade between China and Iran grew by 35% in 2009 to $27 billion. So while the West has been slamming Iran with sanctions, embargos, and blockades, Iran has been slowly evolving as a crucial trade corridor for China -- as well as Russia and energy-poor India. Unlike the West, they are all investing like crazy there because it's easy to get concessions from the government; it's easy and relatively cheap to build infrastructure; and being on the inside when it comes to Iranian energy reserves is a necessity for any country that wants to be a crucial player in Pipelineistan, that contested chessboard of crucial energy pipelines over which much of the New Great Game in Eurasia takes place. Undoubtedly, the leaders of all three countries are offering thanks to whatever gods they care to worship that Washington continues to make it so easy (and lucrative) for them.
Few in the U.S. may know that last year Saudi Arabia -- now (re)arming to the teeth, courtesy of Washington, and little short of paranoid about the Iranian nuclear program -- offered to supply the Chinese with the same amount of oil the country currently imports from Iran at a much cheaper price. But Beijing, for whom Iran is a key long-term strategic ally, scotched the deal.
As if Iran’s structural problems weren’t enough, the country has done little to diversify its economy beyond oil and natural gas exports in the past 30 years; inflation’s running at more than 20%; unemployment at more than 20%; and young, well educated people are fleeing abroad, a major brain drain for that embattled land. And don’t think that’s the end of its litany of problems. It would like to be a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) -- the multi-layered economic/military cooperation union that is a sort of Asian response to NATO -- but is only an official SCO observer because the group does not admit any country under U.N. sanctions. Tehran, in other words, would like some great power protection against the possibility of an attack from the U.S. or Israel. As much as Iran may be on the verge of becoming a far more influential player in the Central Asian energy game thanks to Russian and Chinese investment, it’s extremely unlikely that either of those countries would actually risk war against the U.S. to “save” the Iranian regime.
The Great Escape
From Beijing’s point of view, the title of the movie version of the intractable U.S. v. Iran conflict and a simmering U.S. v. China strategic competition in Pipelineistan could be: “Escape from Hormuz and Malacca.”
The Strait of Hormuz is the definition of a potential strategic bottleneck. It is, after all, the only entryway to the Persian Gulf and through it now flow roughly 20% of China’s oil imports. At its narrowest, it is only 36 kilometers wide, with Iran to the north and Oman to the south. China’s leaders fret about the constant presence of U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups on station and patrolling nearby.
With Singapore to the North and Indonesia to the south, the Strait of Malacca is another potential bottleneck if ever there was one -- and through it flow as much as 80% of China’s oil imports. At its narrowest, it is only 54 kilometers wide and like the Strait of Hormuz, its security is also of the made-in-USA variety. In a future face-off with Washington, both straits could quickly be closed or controlled by the U.S. Navy.
Hence, China’s increasing emphasis on developing a land-based Central Asian energy strategy could be summed up as: bye-bye, Hormuz! Bye-bye, Malacca! And a hearty welcome to a pipeline-driven new Silk Road from the Caspian Sea to China’s Far West in Xinjiang.
Kazakhstan has 3% of the world’s proven oil reserves, but its largest oil fields are not far from the Chinese border. China sees that country as a key alternative oil supplier via future pipelines that would link the Kazakh oil fields to Chinese oil refineries in its far west. In fact, China’s first transnational Pipelineistan adventure is already in place: the 2005 China-Kazakhstan oil project, financed by Chinese energy giant CNPC.
Much more is to come, and Chinese leaders expect energy-rich Russia to play a significant part in China’s escape-hatch planning as well. Strategically, this represents a crucial step in regional energy integration, tightening the Russia/China partnership inside the SCO as well as at the U.N. Security Council.
When it comes to oil, the name of the game is the immense Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline. Last August, a 4,000-kilometer-long Russian section from Taishet in eastern Siberia to Nakhodka, still inside Russian territory, was begun. Russian Premier Vladimir Putin hailed ESPO as “a really comprehensive project that has strengthened our energy cooperation.” And in late September, the Russians and the Chinese inaugurated a 999-kilometer-long pipeline from Skovorodino in Russia’s Amur region to the petrochemical hub Daqing in northeast China.
Russia is currently delivering up to 130 million tons of Russian oil a year to Europe. Soon, no less than 50 million tons may be heading to China and the Pacific region as well.
There are, however, hidden tensions between the Russians and the Chinese when it comes to energy matters. The Russian leadership is understandably wary of China’s startling strides in Central Asia, the former Soviet Union’s former “near abroad.” After all, as the Chinese have been doing in Africa in their search for energy, in Central Asia, too, the Chinese are building railways and introducing high-tech trains, among other modern wonders, in exchange for oil and gas concessions.
Despite the simmering tensions between China, Russia, and the U.S., it’s too early to be sure just who is likely to emerge as the victor in the new Great Game in Central Asia, but one thing is clear enough. The Central Asian “stans” are becoming ever more powerful poker players in their own right as Russia tries not to lose its hegemony there, Washington places all its chips on pipelines meant to bypass Russia (including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline that pumps oil from Azerbaijan to Turkey via Georgia) and China antes up big time for its Central Asian future. Whoever loses, this is a game that the “stans” cannot but profit from.
Recently, our man Gurbanguly, the Turkmen leader, chose China as his go-to country for an extra $4.18 billion loan for the development of South Yolotan, his country’s largest gas field. (The Chinese had already shelled out $3 billion to help develop it.) Energy bureaucrats in Brussels were devastated. With estimated reserves of up to 14 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, the field has the potential to flood the energy-starved European Union with gas for more than 20 years. Goodbye to all that?
In 2009, Turkmenistan’s proven gas reserves were estimated at a staggering 8.1 trillion cubic meters, fourth largest in the world after Russia, Iran, and Qatar. Not surprisingly, from the point of view of Ashgabat, the country’s capital, it invariably seems to be raining gas. Nonetheless, experts doubt that the landlocked, idiosyncratic Central Asian republic actually has enough blue gold to supply Russia (which absorbed 70% of Turkmenistan’s supply before the pipeline to China opened), China, Western Europe and Iran, all at the same time.
Currently, Turkmenistan sells its gas to: China via the world's largest gas pipeline, 7,000 kilometers long and designed for a capacity of 40 billion cubic meters per year, Russia (10 billion cubic meters per year, down from 30 billion per year until 2008), and Iran (14 billion cubic meters per year). Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad always gets a red-carpet welcome from Gurbanguly, and the Russian energy giant Gazprom, thanks to an improved pricing policy, is treated as a preferred customer.
At present, however, the Chinese are atop the heap, and more generally, whatever happens, there can be little question that Central Asia will be China’s major foreign supplier of natural gas. On the other hand, the fact that Turkmenistan has, in practice, committed its entire future gas exports to China, Russia, and Iran means the virtual death of various trans-Caspian Sea pipeline plans long favored by Washington and the European Union.
IPI vs. TAPI All Over Again
On the oil front, even if all the “stans” sold China every barrel of oil they currently pump, less than half of China’s daily import needs would be met. Ultimately, only the Middle East can quench China’s thirst for oil. According to the International Energy Agency, China’s overall oil needs will rise to 11.3 million barrels per day by 2015, even with domestic production peaking at 4.0 million bpd. Compare that to what some of China’s alternative suppliers are now producing: Angola, 1.4 million bpd; Kazakhstan, 1.4 million as well; and Sudan, 400,000.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia produces 10.9 million bpd, Iran around 4.0 million, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) 3.0 million, Kuwait 2.7 million -- and then there’s Iraq, presently at 2.5 million and likely to reach at least 4.0 million by 2015. Still, Beijing has yet to be fully convinced that this is a safe supply, especially given all those U.S. “forward operating sites” in the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, plus those roaming naval battle groups in the Persian Gulf.
On the gas front, China definitely counts on a South Asian game changer. Beijing has already spent $200 million on the first phase in the construction of a deepwater port at Gwadar in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province. It wanted, and got from Islamabad, “sovereign guarantees to the port’s facilities.” Gwadar is only 400 kilometers from Hormuz. With Gwadar, the Chinese Navy would have a homeport that would easily allow it to monitor traffic in the strait and someday perhaps even thwart the U.S. Navy’s expansionist designs in the Indian Ocean.
But Gwadar has another infinitely juicier future role. It could prove the pivot in a competition between two long-discussed pipelines: TAPI and IPI. TAPI stands for the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, which can never be built as long as U.S. and NATO occupation forces are fighting the resistance umbrella conveniently labeled “Taliban” in Afghanistan. IPI, however, is the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, also known as the “peace pipeline” (which, of course, would make TAPI the “war pipeline”). To Washington’s immeasurable distress, last June, Iran and Pakistan finally closed the deal to build the “IP” part of IPI, with Pakistan assuring Iran that either India or China could later be brought into the project.
Whether it’s IP, IPI, or IPC, Gwadar will be a key node. If, under pressure from Washington, which treats Tehran like the plague, India is forced to pull out of the project, China already has made it clear that it wants in. The Chinese would then build a Pipelineistan link from Gwadar along the Karakorum highway in Pakistan to China via the Khunjerab Pass -- another overland corridor that would prove immune to U.S. interference. It would have the added benefit of radically cutting down the 20,000-kilometer-long tanker route around the southern rim of Asia.
Arguably, for the Indians it would be a strategically sound move to align with IPI, trumping a deep suspicion that the Chinese will move to outflank them in the search for foreign energy with a “string of pearls” strategy: the setting up of a series of “home ports” along its key oil supply routes from Pakistan to Myanmar. In that case, Gwadar would no longer simply be a “Chinese” port.
As for Washington, it still believes that if TAPI is built, it will help keep India from fully breaking the U.S.-enforced embargo on Iran. Energy-starved Pakistan obviously prefers its “all-weather” ally China, which might commit itself to building all sorts of energy infrastructure within that flood-devastated country. In a nutshell, if the unprecedented energy cooperation between Iran, Pakistan, and China goes forward, it will signal a major defeat for Washington in the New Great Game in Eurasia, with enormous geopolitical and geo-economic repercussions.
For the moment, Beijing’s strategic priority has been to carefully develop a remarkably diverse set of energy-suppliers -- a flow of energy that covers Russia, the South China Sea, Central Asia, the East China Sea, the Middle East, Africa, and South America. (China’s forays into Africa and South America will be dealt with in a future installment of our TomDispatch tour of the globe's energy hotspots.) If China has so far proven masterly in the way it has played its cards in its Pipelineistan “war”, the U.S. hand -- bypass Russia, elbow out China, isolate Iran -- may soon be called for what it is: a bluff.
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45 Comments so far
Show AllI briefly mentioned days ago , in some other thread...that China had already made an agreement to build that pipeline from Turkmenistan to China..and then the East. ...and that THIS is part of what china's generals had talked about for the last 2 years when saying:
"WE hope that the USA will not create problems and difficulties for China in her WESTERN borders...or it will be problematic for our relations"....meaning of course the USA's expanding wars ...
as usual -- Pepe Escobar is Ahead of the Curve. he won't be getting any visa to the USA for public speeches, that's for sure......he might bring REALITY to americans...
i'll add another speculation:
considering that RUSSIA has been doubledealing with iran - likely at the pressure of the USA - in withholding , not delivering and then reneging on antiaircraft advanced missiles for iran - that were already paid for -
to make it more difficult for the USA/ISRAEL to just attack iran.......
GUESS which country has capability to supply iran with at least some addded capability to deter or respond to aerial attacks? :
CHINA.
losers in the end?
USA, RUSSIA . and not least Russia's own reputation for letting itself be a poodle to US pressure to "isolate iran".
IMO...china is going for the LONG-term relations..not even just a decade worth...and can see that as important as its energy needs and investments are strong relations with its NEIGHBORS...whatever those arrangements are like...
one of its historic strongest ties have always been WITH ancient persia..that in fact WAS the reason for existence of the famed "SILK ROAD" - commerce with persia and china. Energy conduits and relations only strengthen rather than weaken the relation.
>>USA, RUSSIA . and not least Russia's own reputation for letting itself be a poodle to US pressure to "isolate iran".
Actually Russia would be a "winner" in scenarios involving Iran in particular if said scenario leads to conflict.
Russia is the worlds LARGEST producer of oil and has the worlds largest reserves of Natural Gas. Sanctions on Iran help (to some extent) keep the price of that Oil and Gas inflated.
A war with Iran would lead to Oil juming several hundred percent meaning that 10 million barrels a day Russia sells will increase in price.
Russia feels it a win win situation no doubt. Their ambigous role does not isolate them ENOUGH from Iran to cut them out completely yet they stand to profit off the appearance of supporting the sanctions on Iran.
They hope to use those increased revenues to modernize and expand their armed forces and to do as CHINA does and lock up resources around the world with State owned firms like Gazprom.
Just keep in mind how the three major powers earn currency.
China by the export of cheaply made goods to western markets.
Russia by the exports of Natural Gas and Oil to the West.
The United States by virtue of having the "reserve currency" thus printing it up.
Each will follow policies they see as favorable to them.
consider also this crucial point made by Pepe Escobar:
"Few in the U.S. may know that last year Saudi Arabia -- now (re)arming to the teeth, courtesy of Washington, and little short of paranoid about the Iranian nuclear program -- offered to supply the Chinese with the same amount of oil the country currently imports from Iran at a much cheaper price. But Beijing, for whom Iran is a key long-term strategic ally, scotched the deal."
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not only does it show that china CAN and is willing to show its "partners" that it CAN and WILL 'stand by them'...by declining Saudi Arabia's offer of CHEAPER deals...it also plays oil producers against each other to get china's trade. that's very clever...and basically is a signal to washington:
"build up saudi arabia with more armaments all you want...we're not going to sacrifice our investments and future developments linked to Iran and other partners we decide are good for US".
PART of this is , national sovereignty being of paramount importance to china, where "separatists" are anathema to its leadership, say what we will about that, IRAN's SHIITE regime is a VERY critical influence that China needs and can use because the Shiites are known to have SOME influence on china's own indigenous Muslim communities: muslim communities who in large part became so as a result of ancient trade between china and Persia ....with persian and arab merchants going to china and vice-versa.
"good relations" with iran means keeping separatism within muslim communities inside china under control. ..and IRAN in the middle east is likely being seen as part of China's own "sphere of influence" in holding up against western and USA intrusions into ITS affairs.
what can washington or saudi arabia's sunni's offer in contrast to allay china's fears?
What is important to remember is it immaterial which firms win these bid for contracts inside Iraq, or the Stans to US Foreign policy.
What is important is ensuring these countries continue to sell their resources in US dollars.
This allows the USA to continue to "print currency" and ensure there a "demand" for US dollars and ensures that China has to continue to accumulate those US dollars in order to buy the same.
It interesting to note that the country that is now the second largest holder of US debt, is the USA. China, Japan and other countries have slowed in their purchase of US treasuries and securities so the US is supporting their debt by running up more debt.
China thinks in the long term. They know they have to slowly rid themselves of US debt that they hold but also recognize that this must be done slowly or all the remaining debt they hold will decrease in value.
While The USA tries to print its way out of debt via quantitive easing, the Chinese see they way out as locking up real assets the world over and then leaning on countries to accept payments for the same in Chinese Currency.
you are absolutely correct, perceptive as always, GWNorth (what is it about YOU , canadians? lol).
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the way I look at recent developments -- a BIG LOSER in this "china game" is RUSSIA for 2 big reasons:
by basically showing IRAN that Russia (at least under medvedev, seemingly) can NOT be relied on to "help" iran deflect an attack by israel/usa...with Russia's on-off-on-off games of supplying Iran with viable defense that COULD make washington think twice...
China will ultimately "enter" deeper into Iran (not even considering china's already historic ties with persia) .
in the end. EVEN any "regime change" by the USA , should that occur, or to collapse iran's economy through western sanctions -- will NOT CHANGE the fact that , just like IRAQ, destroyed as it is, IRAN ISN"T GOING ANYWHERE and will REMAIN IRAN long after the USA Empire is gone.
and the aftermath , even with destruction , for the moment that will last, say 10 years after an attack , WHICH COUNTRIES will be seen as having "stood by" iran or any other country that was attacked by the USA and the WEST?
it will be such countries as China.
an attack by the USA and Israel will only HASTEN these two countries' ultimate demise with nothing much to show for it but internal destruction of themselves and FEW "allies" elsewhere.
as for the Dollar .....
already -- the IMF could merely come up with a very watered-down proclamation about currency "wars"..hardly even mentioning china as demanded by the USA. that shows the USA has LOST even MORE of its clout. china in the meanwhile , insists on its "stability" as the "antidote" to the global recession, which means it will NOT give in to raising its yuan drastically -- but over many, many years..a decade at least...and let the USA fix its problems as IT ought to do while china continues to "stabilize" and biding its time...gain enough clout to once and for all declare the DOLLAR DEAD. DEMAND REPAYMENT OF US Debts...or CHOKE OFF investments or "special relationship deals" with the USA...and let the usa "TAKE A NUMBER" on a line as a CLIENT state. ...and "compete" just like all other nations have had to compete for having been forced to Tie themselves to the US Dollar.
Page 1 of 2
CHINA'S SORROW, CHINA'S EMBARRASSMENT
The great relocation that failed
By Peter Lee
This is the first article in a two-part report.
The world has been transfixed by the fate of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo, now serving an 11-year sentence for his advocacy of democracy and opposition to the Chinese Communist Party's single-party dictatorship.
However, a less-known case - the detention of investigative journalist Xie Chaoping - provides another perspective on the rise of Chinese civil society. It also illustrates the difficulties China faces in righting a wrong, even when the party's survival and the national interest are not seen to be at risk.
In August, Xie Chaoping was detained by the Public Security Bureau of Shaanxi province's Weinan City in a fit of pique over
Xie's devastating, detailed and closely argued expose of municipal corruption, mismanagement and arrogance in the execution of relocation and disaster-relief programs in southeastern Shaanxi, entitled "The Great Relocation".
Xie's detention provoked an outcry from his family and journalistic peers and publicity in the Hong Kong and Western press, and he was released after over four weeks of captivity.
After his release, Xie wrote a moving account of his detention. It shows that, even when torture and "enhanced interrogation techniques" are removed from the equation, the age-old cruelty of the jailer and the widespread indifference of the public to the routine abuse of detainees' bodies and dignity provide ample means to cow and eventually break the spirit of a prisoner.
Roland Soong translated Xie's account at ESWN:
I thought that they were blatant about enforcing the law violently. When they arrested me, they cuffed me tightly so that my left shoulder became swollen and hurt like hell. I asked them for plaster at least 10 times, but nobody paid any attention to me.
On August 23, we took the train to Xian at the Beijing West Station. Wang Peng [one of the case officers] marched me through five waiting rooms, pushing and shoving me hard. I thought that he wanted to break down my psychological defense this way. I was cuffed to the iron gate by the ticket inspection entrance for more than 30 minutes. As we were about to board, he wanted to cuff me from behind. I said, "My arms felt like they are broken already. I won't run. Don't cuff me from behind."
Wang said that he was only carrying out his duties. I got upset and I said, "If you cuff me from behind, I am going to kill myself by ramming my head against the wall." As I said that, I took a step back and got ready. Zhu Fuli [another of the case officers] came over and held me in his arms. He said, "Old Xie, don't do that." He then cuffed his left hand to my right hand, and then we boarded the train.
[In the detention center], we work in the morning until past 11am. In the afternoon, we were interrogated, sometimes as late as 7pm. When we return to the cell, there was no meal left. I remember skipping dinner six or seven times ... Once I came back from interrogation and everybody had already eaten dinner ... A 17- or 18-year-old boy crawled over and said to me: "Uncle Xie, you didn't eat yet? I know that you haven't eaten yet. We got two steamed buns per person this evening. I saved one for you." I took a bite and tears began to come out of my eyes. But I felt that a grown man shouldn't be crying. So I turned my head to the wall and cried.
The police did not torture me to get a confession ...
There were no prison kapos or bullies at the detention center. But the rules are that newcomers have to sleep next to the toilets, clean the toilets and wipe the floor. Wiping the floor requires the person to squat down and apply a rag to the floor. I had back problems. After I wiped the floor for four times, my back felt as if it was broken. My clothes were soaking wet. I knelt down to work. The prison guard yelled aloud: "No kneeling." I told the prison warden that I didn't want to squat, and the prison guard let me off. ...
So I have left the detention center. But I have become more fragile. I cry whenever I hear the words "steam bun". I cry whenever I think about my wife. I can never forget the look in my wife's eyes when she rushed out to see me being taken into the elevator. All the bitterness and sorrow of the world were there. [1]
Xie's detention forms another chapter in a miserable story that the Chinese government has been fruitlessly trying to bring to a close for 50 years: the disastrous aftermath of the decision taken in 1956 to build a dam across the Yellow River at Sanmen Xia (Gorge) on the border between Shaanxi, Henan and Ningxia provinces.
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for the rest go to asiatimes.
of course the USA has had many, many SUCCESSFUL relocations:
like relocating the native indians to kingdom come...about 20 million of them...and something like 20 million Africans relocated from africa to plantations in the "new world" "cleared" of Native Indians...and relocating Iraqis in the millions...we don't really know their current addresses....and there are afghans and pakistanis , not to mention relocated south americans, vietnamese, loatians, etc....
all SUCCESSFULY relocated by the USA to ...wherever...
isn't the USA's REPOPULATION and RELOCATION project great?
relocate 20 million native indians to heaven....
repopulate america with 20 million relocated african slaves...
to help clear and then "develop" land...
for 20 million Relocated europeans and then some more...
a very neat project of relocation, if you can get it....good 'ol USA ....always SUCCESSFUL...
Not to mention the millions being "re-located" to the street, in our own country, what with The Government/Wallstreet inspired mortgage foreclosures...
Fantastic work by Mr. Escobar. He should be published in every major media source in America. But that is not likely considering the censorship of our corporate media on this subject. What a surprise, as Big Oil has interests and influence in American corporate media as well as subsidizing PBS, our so-called public television
Hence, nearly all American media reports on the mythical endless war on terror rather than the imperial wars for energy and global corporate profits.
But to say, "under pressure from Washington" or "As for Washington", does not explain to the uninformed reader that "Washington" policies are in fact private corporate agendas.
The current imperial disasters that are now playing out are old Necon (the crazies) plans designed with the special interests of military industrial war profiteers and Big Oil in mind. The war costs are then billed to the taxpayer and are now crippling the Federal budget and the American economy.
But with Iraq and Afghanistan now costing $4 Trillion, they have already wasted more money than the resources are worth ! And what will occupations for the rest of the the 21st century cost ?
This is classic imperial over-extension ! The American economy is being sacrificed to serve global corporate agendas.
For more good reading on what is behind the Afghan occupation, Google up some Chossudovsky, such as:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=19769
"The War is Worth Waging": Afghanistan's Vast Reserves of Minerals and Natural Gas
The War on Afghanistan is a Profit driven "Resource War".
by Michel Chossudovsky
By using US dollars and exporting to the US, China is, in effect, subsidising its main competitor for oil and gas by propping it up economically.
China knows this, but has good reasons to do so. Here's their plan.
1. Buy US bonds and use US dollars while building the Chinese industrial base through exports to the US.
2. Quietly secure resources from all around the world to feed that industrial base without provoking the US and without using military force.
3. Allow the US to alienate every country it can with its reckless military resource-grab. At the same time, slowly sell off US treasury bonds and switch away from dollars.
4. When China's industrial base has developed to the point that it no longer depends on exports to the US and when the US has become too obnoxious as a competitor for gas and oil, China will pull the plug on the US "economy" (a.k.a. its military) by ditching the last of the US bonds and it will stop using the dollar.
Game over.
Not quite. If the dollar collapses too quickly, what happens to China's reserve dollar holdings? If the US doesen't buy stuff from China, China is finished. China has a lot of domestic problems as well.
"If the dollar collapses too quickly, what happens to China's reserve dollar holdings?"
Re-read point #3. Key word: "slowly".
"If the US doesen't buy stuff from China, China is finished."
Re-read point #4. Key phrase: "When China's industrial base has developed to the point that it no longer depends on exports to the US"...
OK how much time to you reckon this is going to take? Once a threat to dollar hegemony arises, the US will take drastic measures.
At what point in time do you reckon China will not need the US as its primary market?
probably when or IF china succeeds in re-ordering and refocusing towards its DOMESTIC development market...which it is wisely doing so..having learned the Trap of "export-dependent" economy.
If I am CORRECT in assuming...the asiatimes writer Henry CK Liu - has been making suggestions to the chinese through his writings and that his writings have become rather popular in china - including among ordinary readers online and being cited more regularly...especially on his emphasis on "China and countries need to refocus on DOMESTIC development"...the explanations are too long on the HOW - to cite here.
but definitely one way that china is engaging that is by enlarging its social security programs, the refurbishing of closed plants and industries towards domestic markets. etc.
they are just not as reported outside of that country.
but the main point is: that is a path that not only china but all countries - really as their national destinies ought to have been all along - would have to be taking..IF they were not otherwise COERCED by the global capitalist system to become "export dependent" in ORDER to , as LIU puts it,
"earn dollars for their international transactions ...wasting their hard-earned money and efforts and cheapened resources merely to SERVICE the DOLLAR...rather than invest it in DOMESTIC development. in which EXPORTS are merely a SMALL Part of their economies..but NOT the driving force".
should china reach THAT point or anywhere NEAR it....why WOULD it need "foreign markets" merely to be "prosperous" when its domestic population ITSELF is the SOURCE of its own prosperity by making itself the BUYER and CONSUMER of ITS own economy's produce?
if anything -- isn't THAT what cultures and nations have done ..UNTIL some foreign conqueror , through outright theft or monetary manipulation, destroyed their own self-sufficient internal economies?.
if china reaches THAT point (where we know its domestic market is hugely UNDERdeveloped -- again, in large part because it has to function within the global "DOLLAR HEGEMONY" structure to have to earn "dollar savings" that are really WASTEFUL of its national sovereign wealth) - what BASIC reason would china or any nation even NEED the US dollar for as "transaction" currency?
Yes I understand, however the key words are "if" and "when". Also, what is often ignored is China's environmental and domestic political problems.
Some folks are buying into the fear-mongering that China is a grave threat, I just don't see it. The US poses a far more credible threat to itself than China does.
who really knows about the "when?" we are not trying to predict the exact dates here. we are trying to discuss the tendencies, IF they do happen according to those tendencies. that's really all we can do.
I long ago "predicted" --or opined, is more the correct word, to friends while drinking coffee or beer - many of them 'columbia u students" in management, accounting, whatever:
"that wall street of yours? it's phantom make believe wealth...one day it will collapse..and things will be exposed for the world to see ...that george bush campaigning? he's after SOME war somewhere , to invade and grab resources...he's just waiting for some dramatic big national tragedy as an excuse...there will be folks we don't know of that will come out of the woodwork as schemers in these things"
9/11 happened, wall street collapsed, fascism has arrived, WMD's that didn't exist let iraq be another "american province"...etc...
of course I was not privy to "when"...
i merely opined that what I called "the writing on the wall" was so OBVIOUS.
same with our discussions here.
china has its internal problems...so does every country...but the main point here is :
the DOLLAR HEGEMONY process is in serious trouble...it can't be kept up forever...and for NOW -- it is quite irrelevant as to what the "future brings" -- WHEN the dollar is reduced to what it SHOULD have been all along:
the currency of ONE country without imperializing over the world and making the world PAY for that country's "prosperity" -- as the USA has gotten away with.
Also...Socialist...i really think YOU can better educate us on these things. i am mainly just making my own "guess work" as I always did about the other things that, unfortunately , seem to have confirmed my guesses years ago.
I only wish I had the answers on what is going to happen in future. There are far too many wildcard variables for me to predict what's going to happen. It does look bleak that's for sure. As a couple of recent posts have pointed out, the environmental disasters and using up of fresh water sources may be a game changer.
You are so right on that Socialist.
that's also why I am very , very frightened, in all honesty. not only about what is already happening ...but for the future.
Albert Einstein ..in his essay "WHY SOCIALISM" ...
while he concluded:
" I am absolutely convinced that the source of the EVIL is capitalism...the ONLY solution is Socialism" ...nonetheless posed the question even HE admitted he could not answer:
....the question now is, even under socialism...how and where can we find the leadership and guides that TRULY have the welfare of all at heart and who will be incorruptible?"
and brings to bear the human failures...
basically offering:
SUPPOSING that we HAD socialism as the "absolutely ONLY solution" ....that the SYSTEM or political thought were in place ....just waiting to be applied and all were indeed "for it" for what he opined would show it is for justice for all...who WOULD "manage" it or "lead" or guide or keep it cohesive - who, when in positions of decision-making , do so with true honesty and the welfare of society at heart?....or will THEY TOO fall to the trappings and temptations of "making decisions" ?.
that kind of question often reminds me of my mother decades ago: when the town (we have one of the more prosperous and "important" ones in the philippines where I grew up) and other towns were practically clamoring for my mom to "run for governor" ...and then she gathered us all - including the young ones...the whole "clan"...to discuss it and to give her and my father's decision...
NOT to run. even if it was clear that the province held her reputation so high (she was an educator) it would have easily been a landslide...(even among muslim constituents with whom she had many friends, and into whose far villages she was one of the few "christians" that could travel and visit there and welcomed with open arms) ...
because she felt that in the end politics was too "dirty"...and that her "role" in life of the province was to try and continue what she did: just encourage people everywhere, no matter how poor or "distant" ...to try and educate themselves..and work with each other and always seek common interests and help each other..and try to help each other enlighten about differences and commonalities.
so - the family "voted" : NO.
Your mom sounds like quite a lady.
An Muslim friend of mine once told me that in the Koran (I have not read it myself to verify this), it says "Anyone who seeks to rule is inherently unfit to."
she's more like "past tense", lol. but there was one curious thing I was told by siblings when I visited home to see her for the last time as she lay in a coma dying from brain cancer (doctors said they couldnt' detect that she was experiencing any pain at all in those last months and they were surprised and she always looked so at peace in her bed when i was there). late one night, as we were sitting together outside the house with people visiting from across the province to keep the family company , which was what it was all through her dying months, a brother of mine introduced me to a stranger from some distant village...after the man left..he had "goons and guns" with him...believe it or not because we're in a "muslim" area also..
and my brothers whispered to me later: "ted..that man that just left? he's one of the big chieftains of the Muslims..he came to pay his respect to mommy..and told us..we are never to worry...if ever there is trouble ..and there were clashes INSIDE the town between the muslim "rebels" and government..he said that word has been passed through all the muslim communities and villages: "the family of so and so -- will not be touched".
it turned out, that for several years, my mom spent quite some time with them in their villages that were often remote and very underdeveloped, often run as they were by their own "hierarchy" that could sometimes be quite "authoritarian" ...and they had mostly been suspicious of "christians" and the government..and usually refused development, education...etc..and so were not very welcoming...it turned out my mom would find a way to travel there, usually with a few college students , riding in a jeep or a motorcycle..and that even in rainy weather...when the rides would break down...she'd happily sludge along in the mud on the rice paddies...all of them soaked, lol..and keep trying to get to the villages...there - according to what that stranger said:
she became known in their villages as someone that kept trying to convince them to have the government at least offer them better irrigation, water pumps, etc..because they traditionally drank from the rivers which were dirty and caused them so much of their worms and other diseases...eventually, she persuaded them with these, to adopt better health habits..and she kept persuading them to send their children to school, even just elementary...or make plans to build some schools in their villages...or learn more cottage industries and learn to manage them themselves. do their accounting, etc....basically that type of thing...little by little, it seems that they warmed to her ideas. my brothers were told that among the village she was considered the only individual they would ever trust completely...not even the government officials really were welcomed...because the muslims sensed that she had no other "hidden agenda" , not proselytizing, not asking them to "give up" , or anything like that but to convince them to make sure their children were healthy and educated.
there was an ongoing joke in the town: "there goes Ma'am J again...scooting in the super motorcyle ..." off on the highway to another of her villages..
she was really passionate about understanding between the muslims and christians and at times would wear muslim clothes (which are really beautiful weavings) and bring back "dances" she would learn from them and teach them in the college shows to her students...or bring a muslim to teach things or give speeches.
so ...that was one story i learned ..at the time i was shown by a brother little notebooks she kept for decades. they were accounting books she carefully penned in..for the last centavo (penny) of expense and earnings of college program shows she presented for the school that was a yearly staple for decades in the town..basically the "crowning glory" of the town's cultural reputation in the province...where she basically taught every part of the shows: choreography, music, costumes, props and scenery, acting..and the promotion ...
and those notebooks were her "report" ..because her shows were basically what built a huge gymnasium/theatre in the school that is, even today, still the centre of "culture" in the town (which is big). i was told when i came back years ago:
"this gym - this very large building was built by your mother".
so they renamed it when I was there...and it stand today with her name on the big entrance.
her ledger was so neat...it was so nice to see. 5 centavos "for one pad of paper"
"12 centovos for a box of crayons for the upstage screen", "1 peso for red paint for the down-stage screen" ...for a particular year's show....things like that so the school would see where the expense went during a show.
she hated dishonesty. and taught her kids a love of arts, literature, culture, history, countries and people, nature...even when we were adults...she would still be so excited some nights:
"come, come everyone, come outside...look at the night sky...it's unusually clear...see that? " and she'd point everywhere in the sky and NAME the constellations, dozens of them , from memory...and get us to be excited about things.
TEDDY: Great posts today; and I much appreciated the "debate" with GW North. Excellent commentary from both of you.
GONZO NEWS: Good post, too.
Not sooner than 5 years but no later than 20 years.
Once a threat to dollar hegemony arises, the US and its collapsed "economy" will be in no position to take drastic measures. See point 3: "Allow the US to alienate every country it can with its reckless military resource-grab."
But don't take my word for it. Read Asia Times and other non-US sources.
I largely agree with that, however the time frame might be a bit ambitious. For several reasons I think it is going to take longer than that. Here are a couple of articles to check out.
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_china_superpower_hoax_20100923/
http://michael-hudson.com/2010/09/america%e2%80%99s-china-bashing-a-compendium-of-junk-economics/
thanks for that link, Socialist. I also read that weeks ago.
china has been a leading participant in devising a way in which all participating sovereign nations's currencies are fairly honored for trade purposes.
under china's leadership, russia, brazil, venezuela, and some other countries have been hammering it out.
of course that's a grave threat to the global economic and political domination by financial capitalists mainly based in the US and the Western Europe.
that's exactly correct.
of course it also means that "bilateral" agreements are paramount in such a structure..in which two nations find the common "win-win" solutions regarding their particular trade needs...along the lines of using their own currencies to "transfer credits" to each other...which then are absorbed back into their economies for domestic development. which itself becomes a basis for other trade, etc...with no country becoming interested in or DEPENDENT ON "dominating" the world ....
but simply, realisticaly , and in all practicality, simply wanting to ensure that ITS citizenry or residents are taking part in its internal prosperity...and let other countries do the same for theirs.
prosperity of a country does NOT depend on how it is "measured" agains ANOTHER country -- but in how a country PROVIDES for ITS inhabitants the GENERAL WELFARE of everyone in it..so that NONE , and the country itself are not SACRIFICED for the sake of the "prosperity of the citizens of ANOTHER country"
which is what is happening under the current global capitalist world regime.
the global capitalist regime DEMANDS that countries LIKE china or greece or south america's or africa's , or asia's ....
KEEP their DOMESTIC PROSPERITIES and DEVELOPMENT for the sake of THEIR people
UNDER CONTROL and SUPPRESSED
in order that the HEAD of the SNAKE of global capitalism: the USA and its "allies" of capitalism and those it coerces -- REMAIN the "masters of the universe"....
at the cost of the domestic development and prosperity of other cultures and nations.
and THAT is why "export dependent" economies are what they ARE.
it is a result of hundreds of years of THAT coercion, built over time, and IMPOSED by "advanced" technology and financial capitalist regimes.
DOMESTIC development of countries as the NATURAL and LOGICAL right of nations and peoples -- when UNCOERCED by DELUSIONAL countries like the USA (for "americanizing the world with the USA inhabitants as the most PRIVILEGED of all inhabitants anywhere as a permanent sign of AMERICAN supremacy through capitalism") --
is the thing to be aimed for by countries. and DOING SO, achieving so , will ensure that the USA and its "dollar hegemony" as a path towards this IMBALANCE throughout the world (the enriching of a few at the expense of the many...both country-related...and population related - by DENYING or SUPPRESSING or LIMITING domestic prosperity through INTERNAL domestic development and concentration of any country's wealth and resourcefulness FOR its people rather than as "service providers for foreign ownership or use") is ENDED once and for all..so that countries can lift themselves from centuries and even eons of being at the MERCY of more powerful countries while being denied their DOMESTIC populations' welfare...which should NOT depend on "export"...but on that country's being the MAIN consumer for ITS produce..and export being only for the purpose of achieving what the world has needed to achieve for a long time and ought to be living by as a civilization and species :
"trading" as an expression of sharing with others what you can SPARE - NOT because you NEED the TRADE itself - but because the others DON'T have what you can SPARE....but ALSO not because they REALLY need what you can spare for THEIR continued prosperity which depends on THEIR also becoming THEIR main consumers for what THEY produce...and in that global society
societies can truly appreciate their differences and VALUE them for what they are while ensuring that their domestic prosperities : that is...providing for their general welfare without dependence on "trade"....places them in a position , all of them, that is "non-dependent"
but -- if and when necessary - CO-dependent societies in a truly humane way.
domestic development of that nature will ensure, imo, that "wealth" becomes IRRELEVANT, where societies ensure that their inhabitants are ALL wealthy..and there is no need for "wanting what others have" that only comes at the cost to society and individuals.
you could very well be on the right track there. at least that is where things might lead to. a lot depends on the "actors" at play...what any country does, especially among powerful ones, influences the REACTIOn of another country.
china can not be stopped in seeking its own interests. as any country might. it is beside the point how china is perceived or WILL become ...as seen from the standpoint of today, as what the USA WILL become as seen from today.
what is important is what IS happening as a foundation for the next event.
IF the USA CONTINUES to impose its global hegemonic project. CHINA and others will have NO CHOICE but to seek ways of going around that,,,and even BECOME "hegemons" themselves at least in part as a result of being forced to behave in such as way as to PREVENT being overcome by the "USA hegemon".
the communist party revolution was a RESULT of china's being invaded and divided up by western colonialists ..and when the chinese nationalists actually appealed to the USA , showing the USA that the chinese were actually trying to adapt "jeffersonian democracy" ...the USA REJECTED them..and instead connived some more to divvy up china.
LEFT with NO choices...what came up was mao zedong.
the same thing happened with IRAN. the USA destroyed iran's democracy - installed the shah..and iran is where it is as a consequence of american policies.
for every action there is a reaction. as is said.
leave people no choice and they , if they can, will resort to things opposite of what y ou want them to do.
above all, in things of national interests...since the USA has LEFT countries with NO choices to find their self-determination...their reactions...or that of their people...was a foregone conclusion.
now - of course the USA and many of its citizens "WARN" against "the chinese threat" ...but that is of course a way of DENIAL at the USA's OWN hegemony...and not wanting to see "another hegemon" because as far as the USA is concerned ONLY the USA has the right to attain such "status"...which is the same as its foreign policy in which NO NATION on earth has the right to exist OUTSIDE of AMERICAN policy dictates.
now -- why would a 5 thousands year old culture ALLOW ITSELF to bow to THAT, regardless of what China (or for that matter, any nation) BECOMES as americans 'warn against'?
WHERE in china's history has china invaded south america? or posted armed camps all over the globe - or even, when china was the world's most prosperous country for hundreds of years - used its capacity for vast naval fleets to lord it over , say:
Persia or africa (where china had markets) ...or europe...and even REJECTED european entreaties to "join hands" feeling that china was satisfied with "remaining china?" and interested in nothing greater than trade?.
on the other hand -- in the MERE 300 hundred years of the USA's "discovery and founding"
how SOON before the USA started entering the waters of northern africa for COLONIAL purposes and extending its "american project?" a mere few decades.
so - even this business of "warning about china as the next hegemon" is more like the USA PROJECTING ITS OWN actions to countries that do NOT reflect the USA's UNIQUE hubris in becoming the world hegemon that is based on FANTASMS of "american omnipotence" as well as "the NECESSITY OF AMERICAN ordered world"
where even such huge empires like china and russia DARED NOT imagine THEY or anyone could ever do.
THAT is a critical difference between the USA and all other nations.
There are some excellent comments here. But as I see it, global warming is going to play hell with the chess game at a point not so far in the future.
Yes. It will, in fact, flip the chessboard completely over.
unfortunately -- and we are ALL the "culprit" , except those folks everywhere that have not even willingly or consciously taken part in the price that we exact for our "lifestyles" ...
and when the world, the planet finally reaches a point where NONE of our so-called 'developments' can be sustained...woe be unto us all. there will be no place to hide. even if SOME might do so , temporarily...and if we get through this , if we do...the generations in the future will surely condemn us for leaving them an UGLY world. ...brought and handed down to them to have to fight over for what's left of its once-beautiful , terrible greatness and generosity to all life. and we will have deserved it many times over.
Exactly what I was thinking while reading this. A scary article. Hide your children, because the MIC is going to need them to take on the Chinese someday over fossil fuels. But even if you can keep the american elite's hands off your children, they are going to face the possible, or likely, disasters of warming. This article shows just how hell-bent the elite are on grabbing and burning every last drop of oil or cc of natural gas.
Even more horrifying for the us oligarchy than conflict with china over fossil fuel reserves, a conflict in which they will simply sacrifice poor people's children like they do in all wars, is the sheer terror of americans taking back control of their own lives and communities by generating their own renewable energy locally. Instead of toting weapons and killing for the oligarchy in other countries, those military personnel who will not benefit from these wars, who "volunteered" (read-were forced onto the military by economic circumstances), could be at home working on a renewable energy infrastructure.
the conflict with china is only in the heads of the gladiator-slaves - the masters are already unified under the global investor agreements
edweg
I hear you. The global investors will be set to profit from the conflict, but like any war, it is not only in the heads of the gladiator-slaves. Real people will die real deaths.
The only real complication for the Chinese in this Pipelineistan scenario are the Uighers of Xinjiang. After the Tibetans, they are the second-most persecuted minority in China...and they are restive. Do not be surprised if Niger delta sabotage along said pipeline news items begin to occur.
history of nations is the history of oligarchy and people buy this confusion all the time since historical books are written in this fictional mode
by observing the commentary on internet we can sense the strength of the oligarchy and our own inability to move beyond own discontent
edweg
So now we know where the "red dragon", one-world ruler, in Revelation comes from. Bottom line: should we learn Mandarin, Cantonese, or both?
What I DIDN'T see mentioned was that of the supposed 27% of world oil used by the US, at least half (maybe a lot more, now) goes directly (and indirectly a lot more) to the US MILITARY !!!
Without the military waste of oil resources, the US might be a lot more in line with China and other countries, despite the personal-auto obsession produced by corporate deviance. This is something to consider - and a huge expense.
Mountaineer:
No one in power gives a damn about global warming.
There will be winners and losers and I would expect the capitalists to find ways to profit from the changes and disasters. Global warming is the future.
And for the American liberals who want to feel good about themselves, buying a Prius will not solve the problem.
"what BASIC reason would china or any nation even NEED the US dollar for as "transaction" currency?"
Answer: To purchase oil and food.
How did China's oil get underneath our blood?
CHINA STEPS UP ROLE IN EUROPE
By Antoaneta Becker
LONDON - China's increasing financial involvement in debt-ridden European nations has divided observers, inviting comparisons on one side to a Chinese Marshall Plan for Europe, and to a Chinese communist takeover of the continent on the other.
During his week-long tour of European capitals, Premier Wen Jiabao spearheaded an intensive Chinese diplomacy seeking to win skeptics and defuse fears of Beijing's growing international clout.
On his stops in Greece, Belgium, Italy and Turkey, he held talks about bolstering market access for Chinese companies into Europe, signed investment deals and talked long-term action plans for China presence in European countries. The message
delivered was unequivocally that China is now an important player on the European financial and economic arena.
Veronique Salze-Lozac'h at the Asia Foundation compared China's "rescue plan" for struggling European economies to the Marshall Plan of the 1940s, saying it marked a turning point in recognizing China as a key world player.
"Like the Marshall Plan in its time, China's offer to help Greece is not about altruistic solidarity, and is far from selfless philanthropy," she wrote in a report last week. She said it amounted to "a clever and enlightened economic and financial strategy".
On his very first stop in Athens, Wen pledged renewed commitment to Europe's financial stability and described the European Union and China as "passengers in the same boat".
"We hope that by intensifying cooperation with you, we can be of some help in your endeavor to tide over difficulties at an early date," Wen said in a speech to the Greek parliament. "China will not reduce its euro-bond holdings and China supports a stable euro."
Wen Jiabao offered to buy more Greek government bonds when Greece returns to borrowing on the international debt markets. He also proposed to set up a US$5 billion fund to support the upgrading of Greece's merchant fleet with Chinese-made ships, and pledged to support more Chinese investments in the Greek economy.
This comes on top of existing agreements to lease and operate the country's main port for 35 years and to build a logistics terminal to connect with southeastern Europe. As Greece is preparing to sell off state assets to raise much-needed cash, China is discussing further investments in the country's railways, telecom and construction sectors.
Beijing's foray into Greece has raised hackles, with some observers reviving the phantom of a China threat.
"It was Winston Churchill and Harry Truman who took steps to prevent a communist takeover of Greece; it is Wen Jiabao who now makes the running by promising to buy Greek bonds when they are once again offered on world markets and to help that bankrupt nation's recovery with investments in its economy," Irwin Stelzer, director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute wrote in the Sunday Times in Britain.
Greece is hardly the only European country where officials are looking at China as the possible underwriter of their countries' economic recovery. Earlier this year, Beijing bought 400 million euros (US$558 million) of Spanish government debt. Portugal and Ireland, both threatened with debilitating debt or bailout costs, are also said to be courting Chinese lending.
By wooing individual indebted European countries, China is seen by some as implementing a "divide and rule" strategy in Europe where talk about coordinating a new united EU policy on dealing with the economic giant has so far failed to produce a coherent policy framework.
The Chinese "complain that it is too difficult to deal with Europe that speaks with so many different voices but in fact they have managed to use this to their own advantage, playing different members off one another," said one EU official based in Brussels.
Chinese experts say Europe has the same reasons for deepening relations with China as Beijing.
"For Europe, China is a bargaining chip that increases its clout versus the US," says Zhang Guoqing, pubic policy researcher with the School of Government at Beijing University. "Europe is clear that while some people in Washington are preparing to wage a trade war with China, this is their opportunity to boost trade and investment from China."
Zhou Hong, director of the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says China meant well in Europe but acted rashly.
Beijing acted "without thinking through the reactions from the European side", she said in an e-mailed comment. Before rushing into these investments, China should have consulted Brussels, mindful that such Chinese investments may be regarded as "an intrusion into the European rules of the game".
But China is "almost always condemned whether it does something or if it does not", says Duncan Freeman, researcher with the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies. Whether seen as a Chinese Marshall Plan or as a communist takeover, both are an exaggeration of what China has done in Greece and of the effects its investments will have in the country, he asserts.
"It is not China but the European Union and the IMF [International Monetary Fund] that hold the real power of making and breaking Greece," Freeman says.
(Inter Press Service)
A dragon-tailed Trojan horse?
(Oct 7, '10)
A Chinese 'Marshall Plan' or business?
(Jan 14, '09)
1. Ahmadinejad steps into a cauldron
2. What really bugs Iran
3. Pakistan stands up for its sovereignty
4. Nobel Committee faces down the dragon
5. The great relocation that failed
6. Bernanke sets the world on fire
7. US cartoons 'made in North Korea'
8. Tax China and rebuild
9. Lost Asian satellites send powerful signals
10. Al-Qaeda takes a big hit
(24 hours to 11:59pm ET, Oct 12, 2010)
"UNLIKE ITS RIVAL THE UNITED STATES, BEIJING IS GUARANTEEING ITS FUTURE WITHOUT DEPLOYING ITS MILITARY..". - Pepe Escobar (Oct 13, '10)
Another source of oil for China not mentioned here is the proposed Alberta TAR SANDS bitumen. The proposed Gateway Pipeline will deliver it to the coast of BC and it will move by oil tanker to China from there.
The whole reason for building the Gateway pipeline is to have competing markets - the USA and China. Also, if the USA threats to reject Tar Sands oil come to be then there will still be this other [Chinese] market.
China is also a world leader in renewable energy growth. With the huge demand in China, almost any electric power source is valuable and economically viable. Renewables are the first and last best hope for avoiding runaway climate change.
NateW
*The only real complication for the Chinese in this Pipelineistan scenario are the Uighers of Xinjiang. After the Tibetans, they are the second-most persecuted minority in China...and they are restive. Do not be surprised if Niger delta sabotage along said pipeline news items begin to occur*
i bet their mentors have already drawn up a few plans in langley