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Spending Not the Cause of Our Problems
"Runaway government spending" is an easy target now. It is not the cause of our problems. Government spending will not "crowd out" private investors. It is essential in stimulating the demand on which the private sector and even our ability to sustain healthy debt to gross national product ratios depend.
Further cuts in domestic job creation, sure to result from the refusal by Congress to extend unemployment benefits, will be counterproductive. It will lead to more unemployment, more benefit spending for prisons, emergency health care, domestic violence, and further declines in government revenues - a true death spiral.
That message, however, hardly ever gets a hearing. CNBC anchors regularly proclaim: "only the private sector creates wealth." I wonder what these anchors would be using for their research and communication but for massive government subsidy and research and development on computers and the Internet.
Critics also claim that the Obama stimulus did not work. Using carefully sourced data the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office shows that the stimulus package created jobs and saved others that would have been lost.
The problem here is political.
As even some business economists pointed out at the time, the initial Obama package was far too small. Dean Baker points out the federal package amounted to less than half of the trillion-dollar hole caused by the housing bubble collapse. Government stimulus was reduced even further by cuts in state government spending.
Perhaps President Barack Obama could not have achieved more, but he should have chastised Congress and made clear the country would need more and soon. Obama's inflated claim on behalf of that modest legislation is a major reason that more federal job creation is so politically difficult.
The deficit mania has other deeper roots. A core within the business community, especially financial services, never accepted the New Deal.
Social Security always has been especially offensive. It is a universal program that worked and became very popular. It constitutes the major reason poverty rates among the elderly declined dramatically. Had George W. Bush privatized Social Security, our great recession likely would have become Great Depression II.
Unable to go after the program directly, conservatives attacked Social Security through fallacious arguments that the program, which its bipartisan trustees certify as fully funded through 2044, is a fiscal time bomb. As Baker points out, the real fiscal time bombs are exploding private sector dominated health costs, the bank bailouts and war costs of a trillion dollars and counting. Concern about deficits never has prevented the business press or our senators from supporting these corporate behemoths.
Paul Krugman also provocatively argues that more than immediate monetary interests drive this issue. Ideological and even identity issues are in play. Krugman cites John Maynard Keynes' powerful aside on classical capitalist culture: "The completeness of [the notion that government can do nothing] is something of a curiosity and a mystery. It must have been due to a complex of suitabilities in the doctrine to the environment into which it was projected. That it reached conclusions quite different from what the ordinary uninstructed person would expect, added, I suppose, to its intellectual prestige. That its teaching, translated into practice, was austere and often unpalatable, lent it virtue. That it was adapted to carry a vast and consistent logical superstructure, gave it beauty. That it could explain much social injustice and apparent cruelty as an inevitable incident in the scheme of progress, and the attempt to change such things as likely on the whole to do more harm than good, commended it to authority. That it afforded a measure of justification to the free activities of the individual capitalist, attracted to it the support of the dominant social force behind authority."
The anti-deficit mania has tangled roots both in immediate monetary interests and in the broader political culture. It has surprising support among some working-class citizens, who stand to lose from its implementation. They are led by, and in turn sustain, the so-called Blue Dog Democrats. Nonetheless, its deep and tangled roots constitute no reason to treat it as inevitable.
Why deficit mania cuts across class and how to construct a culture and economics that sustains full employment will be the subject of my next column.
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101 Comments so far
Show AllAs someone who hates the bogus tea party, and all the rest of the political horror show, I will explain why deficits matter. YOU CAN'T LIVE ON BORROWED MONEY!
Governments - especially the US Government, aren't householdd. Different rules apply. To a limit, they can "print" money, and there are times when deficit spending is the only way to get out of a recession - like right now.
If a deficit must be addressed, it should be addresed through steeply progrssive taxation. Deeply cutting military spending and allocating the resources to useful domestic projects would help too. But none of the promoters of deficit mania are calling for that, they are calling for dismantling of the public sector.
Sorry but I don't buy into any crackpot ideas about spending your way out of a recession. The crimminals who run this country have used the FED to create the bubble's that are now breaking, bring down the economy. You can't keep pumping them back up.
If by spending, you mean giving money to the crooks from Wall Street, you are correct (Obama's current policy).
If by spending, you mean building affordable housing, rebuilding passenger rail, funding local farms, funding schools and libraries, funding free clinics, upgrading residential windows and insulation, etc., then spending in these areas will end a recession.
Not all spending is the same.
Wall street is on top of the list that goe,s on and on. Theres a million special interest groups that line up to put their snout in the trough. I favor social power over state power. Everything on your list is fine with me, lets leave the crooks out of it. I think we can do much better without them.
I agree. I think that Wall Street has such a lock on the US political system, though, that there is no chance for reform without getting rid of both of them together.
Fortunately, that might not be too difficult, as their policies are extremely stupid and are leading to their self-destruction. :)
"Fortunately, that might not be too difficult, as their policies are extremely stupid and are leading to their self-destruction."
I hope so because they're dragging Main Street and other nations into their self-destruction so that they can hop out on top of them.
Sabocat- you're getting to smart for your own good. Stop it! Now! Raising taxes on the wealthy will destroy their carefully laid ground work of 30 yrs. Please reverse course immediately and sum up trickle-down in 30 words or less. Try not to laugh, please.
Here's a hypothetical* situation:
If your car breaks down and you have no money and you can't get to work, you can:
A. Stay home from work and earn nothing and, ultimately, lose your job.
B. Borrow some money to fix your car, go to work, keep your job and, ultimately, pay back the loan.
Which is the best option? If you chose B, you are correct. Incidentally, option B is called LIVING ON BORROWED MONEY!
Flunkdaddy must have gotten his name around the time that he tried to complete economics 101.
*hypothetical means pretend
Have repayed many loans, did not roll over the debt each time it came due and add to the principle. You extinguish the debt when your car is paid for.
Correct. Deficit spending can be a useful tool under certain conditions, but its duration should be finite and it should only go towards productive activity.
flunkdaddy-you're absolutely right. The Keynesians always forget to mention the part about raising taxes, cutting spending and paying down debt when things get better. We've never done that (the 90's came close but we never paid down debt)and now we've reached the point where you sell the house, sell the car, hopefully get a small apartment, eat rice and beans and hope for the best. The next step would be the national equivalent of homelessness.
Unpleasant as it is, it seems better to get real about a problem rather than thinking everything will be OK if we just got rid of "those people" who cause all our problems. Pogo rules. ("We have met the enemy and he is us")
It is frightening to think what will happen when interest rates rise. And if they don't, how about all those retired people with nest eggs who suddenly have no income.
Most people would rather keep drinking, thats their cure for a hangover.
It's not the Keynesians who fail to pay down the debt when things improve, it's the Republicans and the rich. You said so yourself (Clinton tried to in the 90's).
What has happened has been a misapplication of Keynes' idea that temporary deficit spending can revive a stalled economy.
Think of deficits as medicine. During the Great Depression (soon to be known as World Depression I) the US had a cold. Since the Depression, the US has been hooked on cough medicine and now drinks ten bottles a day.
Pretty soon the dumb ol' USA will land in the emergency room (World Depression II) where it will linger in a vegetative state until China pulls the tubes out.
chaokoh: I like the analogy of "hooked on cough medicine". We really are addicted to debt. And others here have pointed out the difference in investment vs just spending to spend (e.g., cash for clunkers)
regarding Clinton and debt. I've always believed that the focus on eliminating the deficit was a big plus for his administration. But the reality is he had the wind at his back--tax increases in '91 and '93; a rising stock market that, especially in the last few years, filled coffers with one time only capital gains taxes; and a Republican Congress that wouldn't let a Dem Pres spend anything.
Good point. We need to use taxation as a governor. That is it rises when the economy picks up and it decreases when the economy isn't so good. That, however, would imply that the government would save for a rainy day. Perhaps the point is that there are factors other than interest rates and inflation to consider.
Actually, Keynesians do not always forget to mention the part about taxes and cutting nonproductive spending...Which is why we thought over 1 trillion in lost tax revenue to the wealthiest was a catastrophic mistake; why we thought that forbidding Medicare to negotiate rates on prescription meds was destructive; and why we were alarmed about destructive wars of choice. Most Keynesians believe in counter-cyclical strategies, in which you use your tools to even out the wild gyrations of a capitalist economy, which when left untended can only produce repeated cycles of boom and bust...or in our case for the forseeable future, bust, BUST and Mega-BUST.
Classical Keynesianism suggests that the government stimulate the economy when it is in recession and stay out of the economy when it is not. What the US has done since WWII is to perpetually stimulate the economy in good economic times and bad - largely for ideological reasons. This has distorted the economy, bankrupted the government, and created a capital addiction that is harder to break than a crack addiction.
This last bubble, the mother of all bubbles, The Bailout Bubble; is going to cure that problem.
Your car analogy is pretty good, however, you are missing one option which would better the describe the current predicament. So here's option C
C. the car costs more to maintain every month than you can afford. Walk, take transit or bike to work.
The very large problem with option C is that there are people who live in rural areas, such as my wife and myself, who cannot walk, take transit or bike to work. Out here there is no public transportation which can take my wife to her place of employment which is about 16 miles away. She cannot walk because the distance is too far and she cannot use a bicycle because it rains quite often here in the Pacific Northwest and also because she has Parkinsons' Disease.
Any more innovative ideas that you would like to throw our way?
Maybe I did not explain it properly but I really hope you are not in the C option. It would mean that you spend more on the vehicle than have income from the job. It would not make sense to continue down that path. Unless, of course, you are a government entity.
Chameleon
You just don't seem to get it. While it would be quite nice idealistically to follow your suggestions of walking, taking a transit or biking we cannot do those things because of the reasons that I previously mentioned. You also seem to have difficulty grasping the fact that in the real world that we inhabit we cannot purchase another vehicle because of the cost factor involved in buying that vehicle [unless you would like, due to your magnanimity, to buy a new car for us] and which therefore means that we have to scrape by and somehow keep this car running on the income that we are bringing in, which is not all that much.
And to answer what appears to be a derogatory comment by you, neither my wife nor myself are government employees.
I'm not even going into the fact that the car analogy was used a metaphor for gov spending.
But since you feel it applies to you lemme make this simple for you to understand and also give you a free basic economy lesson.
You have a vehicle that you and/or your wife drive to work.
The maintenance of that vehicle is X dollars /mth
The income you derive from using that vehicle is Y dollars/mth
If Y is less than X then it's not worth doing the trip in the first place as you are losing money.
Furthermore, i did not imply that you are a government employee. what I said was that only a government entity (that does not mean an employee) would continue to run a deficit indefinitely.
Jeez, my English is not the best but i thought my post was pretty clear. That, or some people lack reading comprehension.
Despite what you seem to believe, you post was far from being clear. As to be expected from so many people on the Internet, you just had to make another derogatory comment by claiming that my reading skills are supposedly not that comprehensive because they do not meet your lofty standards.
Chameleon, I would change that to X + W + Z + F where W is the cost of driving to work, F is average monthly costs for food basics, and Z is the general monthly costs of living (mortgage/rent, utility bills). If Y is less than the sum of them, then yes you need a new job that pays better. Working in the city could be more costly mileage and healthwise even if the job pays better. It would be even better if more jobs were made available closer to home instead of too far away which might be possible in some places. That would make it more feasible for more people to bike or walk to work. Your English is not the problem here and there is no need to insult anyone about reading comprehension. You can't be too simplistic about the matter.
P.S.: I would also add that transit fares are not cheap thanks to defunding public transportation time after time but that is another complication I didn't want to get into. Also keep in mind that most buses don't go into rural areas or even exurbs though there may be very limited metro even in exurbs.
Stanley1979
Thank you for your intelligent and empathetic comment
I am glad I could help. I think that chameleon is a young man based on his interest in walking, biking, and transit but I could be wrong. I am sure he might catch on with other factors out there if he hasn't done so already. I wonder what the rural heartland, Pacific Northwest, and the rest of small town America would have resulted in had railroad public transportation been allowed to stay its course instead of Big Auto systemically forcing the majority of us into driving long distances. It saddens me that we all have to be divided like this. Perhaps Peak Oil will unite us as the Great Depression becomes more apparent. Good luck to your wife.
Sure you can.Everybody does.Most of the time it works.Do you have a mortgage?? Just paid mine off.That felt good.Now I have no debt at all.Whoopee shit.Now I can got out and get into debt again.Isn't that what America is all about?
what you did is what all the rest of us have done. You have made good the loan and extinguished the debt. You can't run your household like the gangsters in D.C. they have the FED we don't. Only with a printing press in our basement do we get to do what they do.
Governments are't households any more than electrons are billiard balls. Completely different economic rules apply!
The only consequence of excessive deficit spending is inflation, but that hasn't been a probelm for a long time, and moderate inflation is a friend of the worker, becasue it puts hm in a better wage bargaining position, while lowering the real interest rate ( = intrest rate - inflation rate) on his household debt. This is why through the 1980s - 1990s the wealthy interests insist the fed raise interest rates at the least sign of inflationary pressure - in the form of "too low" an unemployment rate!
Inflation is right now. Gold was about 260 an ounce when Bush and his gang took office pumping out trillions , breaking all records in deficit spending. Next up, Obomber piles trillions more till gold hits record prices at about 1250. The Fed started in 1913 and that same 1913 dollar is worth five cents today. It is the worker who is robbed by the debasement of the money supply.
The price of an investment commodity like gold hs nothing to do with inflation.
Look, real interest rate works like this - when my father bought the house I grew up in in 1961, the selling proce was $28,000 - a huge amount in those days, the monthly payment was $252 per month, and my dad was making about 12,000 per year. That $252 was a lot of money and he wondered if he could keep up the payments. By 1991, when the mortgage was paid off, he was now earning $65,000 per year, some due to promotion, but mostly due to inflation-based raises, and the $252 mortgage payment each month was now a pittsance.
Now, work the same example of managing a mortgage in a deflationary situation - remebering that deflation means lower pay and probablt unemployment, as well as lower price of goods. Which situation would you rather be in?
How do you explain the price of gold going up? I think what you just explained was called the housing bubble. A bubble is inflation like the dot comm, housing. or the bailout bubble collaping around us. You dad + mine lived through an inflationary period which is why his wages and house went up in price.
Gold is a hedge bet. Gold is also still used in our economy and therefore has utilitarian value. It is many times a defensive investment against inflation or speculation that things are going to get worse. People buying gold now may or may not be making a good investment if a long period of mild deflation overtakes the economy. It was a great idea to be in gold in 2002/2003 but not so much now. Moderate inflation in housing is not really speculation because you have to live inside in the U.S. for the most part. It also sits on land which they aren't building much of these days. With the population increase housing should go up. I respect your arguments but SaboCat has this nailed as far as short-term stimulus and defecits and our economy. Remember, in the long term debt is not a problem because we are all going to be dead. Sorry if that last point in new news.
health care has skyrocketed, collage tutition, food etc. its not just precious metals that seen the increase. The increase in the money supply is inflation. I agree in the long term we are dead, in the meantime we have to manage.
Borrowing money to attend college or grad school makes the point you are arguing against. It is short-term in nature betting on long-term higher productivity. Now certain degrees have higher returns than others and that guess is what breaks or makes the Ohbummer crowd and they're obviously nervous. Also, when I advised my niece to go 125K in debt to attend Med School I also explained to her that she should borrow short-term and pay back long-term because she'd be paying back with less valuable dollars. This lowers her real cost of school somewhat. This is what we should be doing or it will end up putting the cart before the horse, so to speak, and really screw things up for the vast majority of us. Just sayin'.
There are some folks who would love for us to believe that, but it is not actually true. Modest inflation is quite good for debtors, which is why the elite screams about inflation all the time, trying to convince us that anything over 2% per year is Weimar Germany in the making. They do not want to lose any chance to extract the last penny out of the working classes.
Thank you for your insight and I concur 100%. Adjusting for inflation that's about 99.9999%.
And if one considers inflation to be defined as an increase in the money supply, the "moderate" inflation spoken of here could be replaced by hyperinflation. For those not familiar with hyperinflation see: Germany 1923 hyperinflation.
All money is borrowed: it is intrinsically worthless paper which represents some future real value, which the holder has faith will be obtained when the money is exchanged for goods. Money is debt, borrowed from an expected future (all debt is borrowing from the future). Money earned as wages is trading real value for abstract value with the expectation that that abstraction can be exchanged for something real later on.
Now, you can use that money for things which are needed or invest it in something which is expected to produce real wealth, or you can waste it by throwing it away or building bombs which blow up and kill people, making bad bets with a crooked bookie, or giving it the wealthy -- who will sit on it or waste it.
If we look at real, tangible, wealth and evaluate that in comparison to the money which is SUPPOSED to accurately represent it, then it's easier to see what this is all about. For a long time now the capitalists have have been getting money through scams by destroying real wealth by manipulating money and finance -- they get money by buying up and liquidating a factory, destroying it's productive capability, for instance.
When the government (or the Fed) create money it SHOULD represent actual wealth which is likely to be produced in the future by using that money to bring people and resources together in some productive enterprise. If the money is wasted or given to people who can not or will not produce the wealth that money should represent (taking probabilities of failing into account), than all it does is reduce real wealth while the capitalists skim off a cut for themselves, at the expense of the working people.
Once one gets past being trapped by the words, abstractions, deceptions and diversions it's not that difficult to understand what's going on beneath the smoke and mirrors. Money is not wealth -- money is only an abstraction which is supposed to represent wealth, for the sake of convenience so we don't have to lug a sheep along to the store to buy a carpet, by bartering. But because it's an abstraction it is easily manipulated and accumulated by the wealthy and greedy (who would be hard pressed to keep a million sheep, or a million carpets, in their back yard).
you're right about the bogus fiat money being based on debt. However for much of the worlds history it was not that way. Since the dawn of time gold and silver were chosen as sound money. The politians have forced us all through legal tender laws to use their fake money. Becuse of the limited amount of gold and silver their spending was resricted. Today it endless with the FED punping out trillions endlessly. This scheme is collapsing before are very eyes. Lets hope we can pick up the pieces and make a better world.
Through most of history gold and silver was not worth anything except as money -- unless you were a jeweler, metal craftsman, or liked to wear or use such things. (Now we have discovered more uses for those metals). You can't eat gold, you can't saw wood with it, you can't burn it for heat, you can't even make a decent weapon of it -- it has very limited real uses: mostly it's pretty and doesn't rust. It's intrinsic values is fairly low; what mostly makes people want it is it's pretty, it holds up over time, and it's rare -- and because they think other people will give them useful stuff in exchange for it.
It is critical to be clear about the difference between the real and intrinisic values of things and the nominal value based on people's beliefs and expectations. ALL money is 'fake' in that it never has much intrinsic value unless it's made of something intrinsically valuable (useful) -- such as a good Nicholson file. Money has value ONLY because there are other people, and governments, who are assumed will back it. A government can default and demonitize currency, or it can be eaten away by inflation, but your good Nicholson file will always sharpen a shovel, even if you are the last man left alive on Earth.
The problem is that other people and the government have not maintained the associated real value of money -- you sure can't buy a good file for the same money you used to! But you can still trade that file for something of value if you find someone who needs it -- you can even sell an unused file you bought 50 years ago for more money than you paid for it. That file has as much potential productive work in it, as many sharpened shovels, as it ever did.
It's true that gold proce has gone up, but it's no more useful that it was in the past: it's the relative value of the money which has gone down. If the government maintained the ratio of real value to money's abstract, representational, value (no inflation), then we'de be OK, but that's destroyed by capitalism and bailouts to speculators who have lost their silly wagers but refuse to be responsible for them. The Fed creates money all out of proportion to realistic expectations for future production. It's debt like my telling you that for a hamburger today I will gladly pay you a millio dollars on Tuesday -- and there is no way I could possible even HAVE a million dollars on Tuesday -- I would be just lying to you -- I would be an INVESTMENT BANKER!
But if money were created with realistic expectations of future production, that that worls fine -- it's like the farmer who works so hard to plant seeds now because he can realisitically expect to get crops later in the year. Sound debt is about investing in the future , not stealing from it.
Good point about the file. that why people today are investing in hard assets. Your right about the price of gold going up because of the debasment of the money supply by our goverment. I see things as the stock market collapsing, the economy tanked, and goverment bailouts making things worse.
The one bright spot is that although our real wealth has diminished, it isn't as bad for most people as the loss of money to the rich. In other words, if 'we the people' muster the political will to bust open the symbols of wealth there is still a fair bit of real wealth around: we have people who are willing able to work (and can learn skills missing), and we have some raw materials available, and we have people who want things are are willing to work to make them or make things which other people want who will trade. The fundamentals of a tangible economy are not ALL gone -- yet. We can barter, and we can create local scrip, and re-organize into real communities which can function as largely self-contained economic entities. This is very like what people in some other countries have had to do in order to survive.
Of course the capitalists and the government will fight this this tooth and nail because they WANT a feudal society where they have all the power and wealth. And will continue to lie and deceive people about what the true possibiities are, and attempt to put down any sorts of efforts around that, by force if think they have to. But the people can find ways to do it anyway.
One of the most inspiring stories I've seen recently is at
http://www.uruknet.info/?p=m67642&hd=&size=1&l=e
"
Video: Sand houses defy Gaza shortages
AlJazeera.net
July 5, 2010
"
They can't get regular building materials, so they combined their will, labor, and the materials they have and build houses out sandbags, creating tangible wealth that's not dependent on 'the powerful' at all. More power to them, and a lesson for us all here, about tangible economy and about what 'we the people' can do.
BLUE PILGRIM: I really enjoyed your posts and the allusions you utilized to discern the inherent value of thing as opposed to its symbolic representation (and alleged worth). Never has the art of the facade been taken to a higher level than is seen in the Wall St fiscal alchemists turning derivatives into piles of gold, yachts, cannibalized rain forests, and more. P.T. Barnum would have understood.
Latte liberals are too rich to care. Run for office stupid.
I thought "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter..."
http://www.ontheissues.org/2004/Dick_Cheney_Budget_+_Economy.htm
Of course, that was back when the rich were getting their tax breaks so they would use the extra cash to create jobs.
Spending Not the Cause of Our Problems? WTF?
The great inverted pyramid scheme that financed the American Empire since World War II is about to come tumbling down.
Sums it up in one sentence, well done.