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Politicians Ignore Keynes at Their Peril
John Maynard Keynes explained the dynamics of an economy in a prolonged period of high unemployment more than 70 years ago in The General Theory. Unfortunately, it seems very few people in policymaking positions in the United States or Europe have heard of the book. Otherwise, they would be pushing economic policy in the exact opposite direction than it is currently heading.
Most wealthy countries have now made deficit reduction the primary focus of their economic policy. Even though the US and many eurozone countries are projected to be flirting with double-digit unemployment for years to come, their governments will be focused on cutting deficits rather than boosting the economy and creating jobs.
The outcome of this story is not pretty. Cutting deficits means raising taxes and/or cutting spending. In either case, it means pulling money out of the economy at a time when it is already well below full employment. This can lower deficits, but it also means lower GDP and higher unemployment.
This might be OK if we could show some benefit from lower deficits, but this is a case of pain with no gain. Ostensibly, there will be a lower interest-rate burden in future years, but even this is questionable. First, the contractionary policy being pursued by the deficit hawks will slow growth and lead to lower inflation or possibly even deflation. It is entirely possible that the debt-to-GDP ratio may actually end up higher by following their policies than by pursuing more expansionary policy.
In other words, we may end up with smaller deficits and therefore accumulate less debt, but we may slow GDP growth even more. The burden of the debt depends on the size of the economy and in the scenario where we do more to slow GDP growth than the growth of the debt, then we end up with a higher interest-rate burden, not a lower one.
The other reason why we may not end up with a lower interest rate-burden is that we need not issue debt to finance the budget deficits. Countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom that control their central banks can simply have the central banks buy up the bonds used to finance the deficits. In this story, the interest payments on the bonds are paid to the central bank, which is in turn refunded to the government. This means that there is no interest-burden created by these deficits.
If that sounds impossible, then it's necessary to pick up Keynes again. The economies of Europe and the United States are not suffering from scarcity right now. They are suffering from inadequate demand. This means that if governments run deficits, and thereby expand demand, the economy has the capacity to fill this demand. The decision of central banks to expand the money supply by buying bonds simply leads to an increase in output, not to inflation.
The idea that there is a direct link between the money supply and inflation is absurd. Do any businesses raise their prices because the Fed has put money into circulation? How many businesses even have a clue as to how much money is in circulation? In the real world, prices are set by supply and demand. If any businesses tried to raise their prices just because the Fed has put more money into circulation they would soon find themselves wiped out by the competition - at least as long as we are in this situation of having enormous excess supply.
This story should be old hat to those who have studied Keynes. In a period of high unemployment, like the present, governments can literally just print money. Not only will this put people back to work, this process can also lay the basis for stronger growth in the future by creating better infrastructure, more energy-efficient buildings, supporting research and development of clean energy and improving the education of our children.
Unfortunately, our political leaders don't give a damn about mundane issues such as unemployment and economic growth. It is far easier for them to bandy about silly cliches about fiscal responsibility and generational equity, even though the policies they are pushing are 180 degrees at odds with anything that will help our children or grandchildren. Their main concern is pushing policies that keep the financial industry happy. And 10 million unemployed never bothered anyone at Goldman Sachs, just as Fabulous Fabio.
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72 Comments so far
Show AllThe Obummer admin. doesn't give a shit about massive unemployment. One look @ Larry Summers fat smug face tells you all you need to know about this odious lying regime.
IMHO continuous economic growth on a finite planet is the ultimate Ponzi scheme. At some point it has to stop. We can't continue to pull ever more resources, at an ever increasing rate from the home world.
I wonder if we have already started to bump into the planetary limits for natural resources and that is why the economy was switched over to one of a financial fantasy land. Who knows for sure, but I figure at some point as all these countries debts grow out of control, they are going to try sell bonds to fund that debt and there just wont be any more buyers for it. IMHO, it seems inevitable to me that this has to happen at some point.
"I wonder if we have already started to bump into the planetary limits for natural resources..."
Stop wondering because we are not just "starting to bump into" the limits, we are over the edge of the cliff. Like Wile E. Coyote from the Road Runner cartoons, we are standing in the dust, ready to plummet as soon as we realize our feet are no longer on the ground. The difference between our situation and the outcome of a Ponzi scheme is that the last people in are not just going to lose their money, they are going to lose their lives.
And yet, "economic growth" is still the magic bullet that will cure all ills. It's like the guy who falls off the top of the skyscraper, and on the way down says to himself, "So far, so good". The human capacity for denial is truly an extraordinary thing.
South Sea Bubble, Tulip craze.
There will always be people who push the economy into financial fantasy land.
An article of utter drivel, a not unexpected item considering the nature of our criminal institutions. Director of economic and policy research?
Yet another blatherer in the wilderness.
Do yourself a favor don't be taken in by these snake oil solutions of "people in the know".
Economic growth and it's ugly sister called profit are distractions designed to facilitate the illusion. Since no enterprize now existant accounts fot the bulk and most dangerous of costs not accounted for.
Profit and growth are the dillusions that create economic growth today.
Get real folks.
Growth, profit, power.
The new opiate of the masses.
For lifes sake kick the habit now!
Wildwood
An article of utter drivel...
Director of economic and policy research?
My sentiments exactly.
Part of the problem is that peoples income can no longer support their level of debt. And, their are no longer borrowing at the rate they were during the height of the boom. The problem is not only that banks aren't willing to lend but that perhaps people over burdened with debt are no longer willing to borrow more debt.
That scares the hell out the powers that be, seeing how about 70% of our economy is consumer driven.
The powers that be decided long ago that debt was the way to wealth. And by holding down real wage growth, they pushed people into debt to maintain their standard of living.
That should be clue Sherlock! The last 10 years of growth was a debt driven aberration.But wall street made huge amounts of money on it, at expense of the real economy.
Now the system is coming back down to reality..A painful one!
One clue to perhaps a fatal flaw in the system.
Debt is not wealth!
Debt is debt!
This article is not about personal debt! It's about increasing the money supply, to stimulate demand - you may not understand the difference, Sherlock. See: CRA, Roosevelt, Great Depression, etc.
Living on borrowed money is not a good idea, you can't create wealth from debt, if it were possible it would have been done centurys ago and we would have opulence.
In terms of public perception the Keynesian stimulus which Obama put in place is a failure because times are still hard and unemployment still hovers at 10%. Conservatives argue that it is just money down a rat hole. It is hard to argue that the stimulus was a success because it kept unemployment below 10%. It is easy to criticize as an ineffective measure because it has not made things better. To argue that we need another stimulus or that the first one did not work because it was not big enough, (which I believe is the actual truth of the matter) strains the credulity of the average citizen. In his life there is no stimulus, no direct infusion of cash to spark his demand side so he cannot see in macro terms how it can work for the country at large. Instead the concept of bankruptcy, of clearing debt seems more plausible. Using that reasoning conservative supply-siders argue that if the banks had been allowed to fail debt would clear and money in the side lines would flood back in to restart the economy. This is foolishness in my opinion. Why would investors put their money in a failing economy but it is in suburban America the conventional wisdom. That view has not been discredited by recent economic events. There are only two ways the Keynesian solution can succeed. Either the stimulus has to be great enough to really move the economy toward full employment or the other side's position, laissez faire--let it go down, has to fail grandly enough that in desperation people will turn to the government for FDR New Deal like measures that will show success. Obama's timid half way measure has only staved off the depression to come. It has not vindicated Keynesian economics. We now have to go through the profound pain of devaluation and really high unemployment under Republican auspices, have our noses rubbed in laissez faire for 5-10 years, have former believers face real deprivation before the supply side theory is in turn rejected also and a real Keynesian solution is undertaken. The smirk on my Republican neighbors faces will not be wiped away without suffering. Debt will be cleared away, just as the supply siders predict but so will their pride and pretense. As Lincoln said, "We must disenthrall ourselves, and then we can save the country." After all this turmoil, (10 years or so of it I predict) we will move forward again--at least I hope so for by that time I will probably be dead.
"strains the credulity of the average citizen" unfortunately in our era, with terrible leadership and little journalism other than pro-corporate propaganda, there is no one to explain Keynes to the 'average citizen' They don't understand that stimulating demand is required.
"the Keynesian stimulus which Obama put in place" of course is almost nothing, but that is the view of most 'average citizens'. Most Keynesians, like Baker, Krugman, Stiglitz have argued for much, much more. Apparently it does not "strain the credulity" of these Nobel-prize winning economists. I think you're correct in the direction we will go, but I hope you're still around to see it ;)
Well, we have an interesting group of comments to an excellent article. A nation that controls its own currency and has a history of relative stability, such as the US, is definitely better off to attempt to keep people working with deficit spending in a period of severe recession. This is far different than the average Joe piling on more unproductive debt. Investors are always looking for safe investments, and the US has an excellent track record of always paying its debts. Not since the Hoover era have our leaders made horrendous mistakes with the economy. Keynes helped guide us out of that mess. We are free to ignore Keynes words at our peril.
"A nation that controls its own currency and has a history of relative stability, such as the US, is definitely better off to attempt to keep people working with deficit spending in a period of severe recession."
The US is certainly not a bright example of what you say. If you believe in people like Cheney and Obama who claim that deficits are "good", man do I have a Brooklyn Bridge to sell you.
"the US has an excellent track record of always paying its debts"
Sure, no wonder it racks up dozens of trillions unlike any other nation which has yet to come close to having $1 trillion in national debt. All that endless military spending and bailing out corporate criminals who never pay back but cook those books really well sure have a nerve. This nation is a LAUGHING STOCK !
While there appears to be alot of satire in your response to GregR., your attempted rebuttal is severely lacking in actual facts and data. GregR is in fact correct; do you have other information contradicting what he posted???
Of course, you are right about the military and bailout budget being a drain- I just do not see how that is relevant to what GregR posted!
Regarding those facts, readers may want to consider the US is not the only major economy in this fix, nor are we the most worse off. These figures may not be the most accurate, but they paint the picture.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt
I wouldn't trust sources such as IMF and CIA to give us fudged data. Another thing to keep in mind is that GDP does not give us the real picture. See these articles:
Dangerous Fallacy in GDP Measures
http://seekingalpha.com/article/148203-dangerous-fallacy-in-gdp-measures
Is GDP an economic fallacy? by Dr Frank Shostak
http://www.brookesnews.com/070309savings.html
GDP Fallacy
Do Governments Willfully Mislead People?
by James Bibbings | Commodity News Center | August 5, 2009
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/cnc/2009/0805.html
I didn't look at the articles, but of course GDP is a flawed analytical tool. For instance, a mother caring for her children adds nothing to GDP, but paying someone else to raise your children gives us GDP growth. There are lots more absurdities, but GDP does give us some good indications on our economy.
Well, it would be nice to see graphs of GDP (or something) vs debt - thanks for the links.
Give us one nation that has $1 trillion or more in national debt. I already posted the facts and there are plenty of sites with data to back up what I said. Pick any nonpartisan one and see for yourself. A nation that could actually control its own currency would never be trillions in debt to begin with and they certainly wouldn't allow endless printing from the Fed Reserve. Greg R first has to prove to us his original claim that the US is the greatest country on fiscal discipline. If you want to defend his Enron nonsense, be my guest.
How much debt does Japan have? Way more than 1 trillion.
Japan's debt is held by domestic investors rather than international banking corporations.
Plus Japan runs a trade surplus.
.
Remember how the Clinton years were often touted as an exceptional period of economic growth? Well, where is the green economy that came out of it? It didn't happen, just more consumption driven mania and more financial "gains" predicated on speculative bubbles. What makes these economists think that merely with a reshuffling of flow charts of supply and demand models we can avoid the deleterious physical consequences of pillaging and plundering the planet to death with more miraculous growth elixirs touted as the cure all for our economic pain? We cannot grow our way out of the destruction of our natural habitat, a living earth. No amount of economic tinkering can alter this fundamental reality.
Long ago posted here the belief that the economic success of the Clinton years was due in large part to the moderate recession being experienced then by much of the rest of the world. This allowed us to buy and consume unrealistically cheap oil at a fantastic pace (the Clinton years could be called the SUV years.) As soon as the rest of the world began to recover and demand rose the US "economic powerhouse" seemed to get several flat tires, drove into the weeds and all the value in many sectors was finally seen to be ephemeral and in fact, based on cheap oil.
When I posted that, a former Clinton staffer called me everything but a Republican and swore that the economic success of the Clinton years was because of the brilliance of his advisors. Those same advisors that are largely responsible for the current collapse and are now festering in the Obama administration.
Clinton is still being quoted as saying Robert Rubin is the most brilliant Secretary of the Treasury since Alexander Hamilton. Never mind the fact he and Larry Summers helped to undo the safeguards put in place by the Glass-Steagall Act and Rubin claims to have missed the inordinate risks with the whole sub-prime debacle while raking in hundreds of millions of dollars as head of Citigroup. Hey what's a few flat tires amongst famous limousine liberal friends? Once you're inside the elite yacht club of the platinum investor class it's heads you win tails the rest of us lose. Look out, here comes another former Harvard Dean about to enter the sacrosanct halls of the Supreme Court. Change we can believe in? What change? It's just more of the same!
I would prefer a local approach to keep money at home ...
Michael Unterguggenberber was mayor of the Tyrolean town of Woergl during the 1930s. He was faced with a decaying town and an empty treasury, like many another in those hard times. There being no money, he printed some 'labor certificates' to a value of 5000 Austrian schillings and deposited that amount in the bank to cover the certificates.
The certificates bore a negative interest. Every month, they had to be revalidated by affixing a stamp to them, of a value of one per cent of the face value. This money the mayor put into a relief fund.
The mayor put his money into circulation by paying it to his workers. The workers spent it in town, where the businesses found that they could use the money to pay taxes and other dues.
Nobody wanted to keep the money -- they spent it as soon as they could, rather than have to pay the fee. They paid their taxes with it promptly, even trying to pay them in advance. Within a year, the 5000 schillings had circulated 463 times, creating goods and services worth over 2.3 million schillings. Government schillings only circulated 213 times. Unemployment fell by a quarter and the town had repaired streets, a new drainage system, street lighting, a ski jumping platform, and a new water reservoir.
Over 300 other Austrian communities became interested, but two powerful enemies, the Tyrol Labor Party (one wonders why?) and the Austrian State Bank (well understood!) appeared. The bank threatened to start legal proceedings and the experiment stopped.
The Province of Alberta, Canada, heard of the experiment and duplicated it. It issued 'Prosperity Certificates,' which had to be validated with 104 one-cent stamps within two years to retain their value. The central government considered it a danger and banned it.
Regional currencies exist today in Argentina, in the provinces of Salta, Tucuman, Jujuy and Catamarca. The bonds have become the prevailing currency in regular daily use (1995) for purchases, transportation, the payment of local taxes, the wages and salaries of all provincial employees and most of the private sector.
Sioux Rose
PARALLAX: Neat post! Ever hear of "Ithaca Dollars"?
What am I missing? Baker's saying that, "Countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom that control their central banks can simply have the central banks buy up the bonds used to finance the deficits. In this story, the interest payments on the bonds are paid to the central bank, which is in turn refunded to the government. This means that there is no interest-burden created by these deficits." sounds bizarre - rather like my saying that because I spent too much this month I can just borrow the money from myself add the sum to my total debt, and pay myself the interest. No problem??? Well, for 2009 the central banks would have to come come up with $1.9tn (total 2009 deficit). Where they gonna get it, borrow it from the government? OK, then where does the gov't get it - borrow it from the central banks?... Madoff was a piker!
Of course Keynes assumed a fairly strong state, a condition in little question during his lifetime. But he wrote about what to do when a capitalist economy was fast and employment high as well.
Nixon said, "We are all Keynesians now." But that has been equally true of others who do not admit it. Friedman does not really describe another mechanism of markets; he only advocates a different handling, a handling for another end.
The core of these complex problems has a simple dynamic of operation: the people who own things decide to maintain their ownership and their profit above all else. They consider widespread subservience to be "order" and "civilization," well worth killing masses of people to preserve.
Keynes describes the functioning of capitalistic markets well enough to allow for their conscious manipulation. These people have read Keynes or can hire people who have.
They do not want their minions to be happy and educated and independent and healthy. They want them healthy enough to work, content enough to submit, educated enough to complete necessary tasks, but neither content enough nor enraged enough to revolt.
The point is not to educate our politicians, but to learn them a thing or two.
The problem is that the people who make the policy decisions are affluent (to say the least) and in no danger of losing their jobs. So why should they worry about being logical and why should they bother to read Keynes, who was not the clearest writer?
I'd rather they recinded the Bush tax cuts and end the wars. That will close most of the deficit permanently. The raise in taxes will reduce investment, so the Fed will have to take other measures to sweeten that pot for growths sake.
"Cutting deficits means raising taxes and/or cutting spending."
Right.
Since the self-styled "deficit hawks" (who squander trillions on illegal wars) are categorically against all taxes, cutting spending will be their constant refrain.
"Unfortunately, our political leaders don't give a damn about mundane issues such as unemployment and economic growth."
Right again.
"Their main concern is pushing policies that keep the financial industry happy."
Only half-right.
Their main concern is also to destroy Social Security, Medicare, Housing Assistance and any other government program that helps the non-rich. They are happy to ignore Keynes and endure slow GDP growth (they're already filthy rich) if it gives them the chance to wipe out the legacy of FDR. After that, they can rediscover the value of deficit spending while rebuilding the US along more fascist lines.
It's the conservatives who want to destroy SS and Medicare. Although the less wealthy conservatives who retire have a strong tendency to change their minds. If we allow Republicans and conservatives to take over, then it's likely just a matter of time until SS and Medicare are more or less gone. However, it's not gonna happen soon, cause there are too many baby boomers moving into the retirement pool and they will not allow serious change. This is one of those areas where there is a HUGE difference between Dems and Repubs. And don't let the conservatives fool you. SS is in quite good shape. Medicare needs work...serious work.
Hmmm, Obama and the Democrats are "conservative" too but they aren't being open about it. Well, that matches their refusal to be open about allowing Wall $treet to tickle SS and Medicare into bankruptcy ! True conservatives don't support Republicans or Democrats.
"It's the conservatives who want to destroy SS and Medicare."
Really? Just take a look at Obama's deficit reduction team ...
Alternet ~ Obama Packs Debt Commission with Social Security Looters... Obama has filled his new 'debt commission' with Wall Street insiders determined to gut Social Security.
The Democrat is Erskine Bowles. Described by Business Week in 1998 as "Corporate America’s Friend in the White House," Bowles is president of the University of North Carolina and a venture capitalist with close ties to Wall Street. He sits on the board of Morgan Stanley and General Motors, both of which have received multi-billion dollar government bailouts since the start of the financial crisis. The finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) sector was by far the largest donor to Bowles in his unsuccessful Senate campaigns in 2002 and 2004, donating over $3 million. His wife, Crandall Bowles, is on the board of JPMorgan Chase, making the couple two of the biggest beneficiaries of the government's financial welfare over the past two years. Crandall Bowles also gave over $14,000 to Obama's 2008 presidential campaign. Both are members of the Business Council, a prestigious association of major CEOs.
Bowles' Republican co-chair, Alan Simpson, is a former Republican senator who pushed (unsuccessfully) for a back-door benefit cut to Social Security benefits in the '90s by tampering with its cost-of-living adjustment and attacked AARP for its defense of Medicare. Simpson's former Senate aide, Chuck Blahous, is a prolific crusader against Social Security and was executive director of Bush's commission in 2001. In a warning sign for Social Security advocates, Blahous and Robert Reischauer, another policy insider who penned a memo in 2009 with fellow Brookings Institution elites calling for Obama to take "action to stem the growth of Social Security and Medicare," were recently nominated by Obama to be Social Security Trustees. (The Blahous pick he apparently owed to Senator Mitch McConnell.)
http://www.alternet.org/story/146183/obama_packs_debt_commission_with_social_security_looters?page=entire
Commissions can commission all they want. It's just bs. Do keep in mind that SS will need a bit of tweaking now and then to keep it in good shape. Never touch it in the slightest and sooner or later trouble will evolve. At some point we will need to do a slight bit of 'means' testing, raise paycheck withholding, or cut benefits a bit. Hopefully we'll eventually have a rational discussion and make the SLIGHT adjustments.
Social Security is in great shape ... The problem is that the Politicians borrowed the money for the Reagan tax cuts for the already wealthy and the corporations. The problem is that the Politicians now have to pay that money back to the Social Security Trust Fund and rather than do that they want us to take cuts. The Politicians don't want to rescind the Reagan Tax Cuts for the wealthy and corporations to make good on Social Security promises paid for by the people's SSI contributions ...
Wish I'd read your comment before posting mine. Yours says it better, thx.
I wish Al Gore had never said anything about keeping SS funds in a "lockbox." Having a special huge pile of money sitting somewhere just for future retirees is silly. Money comes into the government and money goes out. It's simply important to keep track of it. I'm sure some worry, but I firmly believe that those retirees who truly need their SS will get 100% or VERY nearly that.
How about repealing some of the undeserved tax breaks given to the ultra wealthy, which Bush handed out and Obama is too chicken to touch?
Exactly correct ... The "powers that be" only consideration is keeping and adding to their power, the people be damned ...
We see the new estimate for the Afghanistan War in the trillions yet there is no help for those in need here at home. They would rather spend the money terrifying, maiming and killing people abroad than help their own people at home.
Sioux Rose
MMCK: Wow. You put it in such stark, but all too true terms.
Cicero: "Freedom is participation in power."
These neo-libs running the EU and US economy ever deeper and deeper into a slit trench seem to be itching for another World War, which is what may very well happen. Only it won't be a war between nations like WWI, but a revolution between classes and racial groups. I always expected capitalist Western Civilization to go out with a quiet fading whimper. But it may go out with a very red bang after all.
These neo-libs running the EU and US have bankrupted their economies and then bankrupted their countries ... Now it is the people they want to pay for their fraud and criminal negligence with austerity while the banksters get record bonuses.
Why borrow our money at all? Just print it ...
We need to have a bank holiday to sort out the still insolvent Wall Street Banks and nationalize the privately owned and operated Federal Reserve and place it under the Treasury Department.
The Treasury prints our money and the banks borrow from the treasury or from savers. We reduce all leverage in the economy so that only the Treasury can create money. In this way the people garner the profit and the prerogative of currency and credit creation.
The bubble has popped ... the jobs it created are not coming back. We need to reduce the work week from 40 to 32 hours over two years while leaving wages the same. Companies would be recompensed with the USG implementing Medicare for All.
Baker wants to borrow our own money ... I say let's take back that which is granted to us in Our Constitution, the right, responsibility and duty of creating our own money without debt to be used for the benefit of the people ...
On the one hand the author says there's no relation between money supply and inflation and then goes on to say prices are based on supply and demand. This makes no sense and he completely contradicts himself. Just look at this idiotic logic:
"The idea that there is a direct link between the money supply and inflation is absurd. Do any businesses raise their prices because the Fed has put money into circulation? How many businesses even have a clue as to how much money is in circulation? In the real world, prices are set by supply and demand."
To put it more concisely the author says... "Supply doesn't matter, it's supply that matters."
When there is more of something, it's value is diminished. When there are more dollars, the dollars have less value and that is inflation. This is basic economics.
This is just bullshit from a pro big gov centralization intellectual, a shill for powers that ruin people's lives and rob them and send them off to war to die.
Progressives listen to this kind of charlatan at their own peril. What got us out of the depression was war. The most Keynesian leader in history was Hitler. Keynesian economics like all policies that lead to greater central government power will eventually lead to more militarization and war, which is central government's number one "service." Sure there will be some new jobs and roads built at first, like in Nazi Germany, but it is guaranteed that in the end it will lead to more military spending and perforce more use of that military. After central banking we had World War One, after the Keynesian policies of Hitler and FDR, we had World War Two. If you want World War Three, by all means support increasing the central government's economic power.
Oh those are such reich-wing, libertarian, government-fear-mongering lies. Yet again. Let's talk conflict shall we?
First you claim Keyensian spending (gov't spending on productive things) did not get us out of the depression.
Then you claim war (gov't spending on destructive things) DID get us out of the depression.
Hellooo! Did we find some gold over in Europe that we looted back to the US like the Vikings?
The key phrase you seem to miss in Baker's point is 'direct link'. That is different from 'indirect link'. When there is more of something, value is diminished - yes but in this case, stimulating the economy: 1. does not lower the value of money in a recession/depression and 2. you get something for it! Projects, wages, etc.
The government is not evil. It's the people's instrument to rule themselves and create a just society. Like any tool, it can be abused, and is not guaranteed to lead to the military, but it doesn't mean we give up on tools. To do so is to believe libertarian nonsense: Individual first, everyone else be damned. You should not use 'intellectual' as a slander word.
Hint.
When what happens in the material world conflicts with logic, it is logic that is wrong.