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Beginning of the End for Afghan War?
And so it is true for the people of Afghanistan, where spending for the army and police is programmed for $11.6bn (61% of projected GDP) in 2011. If that doesn't fit the definition of "unsustainable", it's not clear what would.
Not surprisingly, the Afghan people are looking for a way out. They want negotiations to end the conflict. But the United States says no. The US and its Nato allies are preparing for a major military offensive, perhaps the biggest of the war so far, in the southern province of Kandahar.
A poll sponsored by the US army showed that 94% of Kandahar residents support negotiating with the Taliban, rather than military confrontation.
The New York Times reports this week that "in some parts of the country, American and Nato convoys are already considered by Afghans to be as dangerous a threat as Taliban checkpoints and roadside bombs, raising questions about whether the damage" to the perception of US forces caused by the continued US killings of Afghan civilians "can be reversed to any real degree".
"'People hate the international forces,' said Bakhtialy, a tribal elder in Kandahar. ' ... Their presence at the moment is too risky for ordinary people. They are killing people, and they don't let people travel on the road.'"
A series of high-profile atrocities by US and Nato forces that have surfaced recently has made matters worse. Three weeks ago Nato admitted that US special operations forces had killed five civilians, including three women, two of them pregnant. Nato had previously engaged in a cover-up, claiming that special operations forces had "found the bodies of three women who had been tied up, gagged and killed".
Meanwhile in the United States, a rebellion is growing in Congress against the war. Wisconsin Democratic Senator Russ Feingold, House Democrat Jim McGovern from Massachusetts, and House Republican Walter Jones from North Carolina have introduced legislation that would require President Obama to establish a timetable for withdrawing US troops from Afghanistan. The bill has quickly picked up 29 co-sponsors, and could reach 100 within the next few weeks.
How does this get us out of Afghanistan? My colleague Robert Naiman of Just Foreign Policy explains:
"A signal like this is likely to have dramatic political effects in Afghanistan, just as these things had dramatic political effects in Iraq. In 2007, Congress never succeeded legislatively in writing a military withdrawal timetable into US law. But the fact that the majority of the House and Senate went on the record in favour of a timetable had dramatic effects in Iraq. It put pressure on the Bush administration to compromise its objectives, to start serious negotiations with people it had previously been trying to kill."
The result was a signed agreement between the US and Iraq for a timetable to withdraw US troops.
That is how the Afghan war will end. The pressure will build until President Obama and his military have no choice but to begin the US exit from Afghanistan.
The majority of Americans are against the war, and every week thousands of Americans continue to put pressure on their representatives in Congress, who can also read the polls in an election year. The war has dragged on long after the public turned against it, and long after Washington abandoned any pretence of a coherent story to justify it – a result of our limited, corrupted form of democracy. But this Congressional rebellion is the beginning of the end of this war.
- Posted in
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29 Comments so far
Show AllOur invasion of Palestine 60 years ago keeps on getting worse.
Our invasion of Iraq keeps on getting worse.
Our invasion of Afghanistan keeps on getting worse.
Our pending invasion of Iran keeps on getting worse.
Our pending invasion of Venezuela keeps on getting worse.
Bottom line, our war materials industry keeps on getting better.
The big question is why the hell do the Pentagon and its politicals want to keep on with this war? They'll never get the TAPI oil and gas pipelines running with ever more of the Afghan population hating them. The Pentagon is a lunatic Transformer programmed for war and destruction.
And consumption. Truth_Light's final line is on the money.
WHY? Because you can't get promoted through the higher echelons of the officer class without battlefield experience. So the junior officer corps demands war. The generals have great contacts with arms manufacturers which turn into lucrative retirement jobs shilling for the arms manufacturers with their former colleagues in the Pentagon, so the generals want more war. The arms manufacturers want to keep their snouts in the trough, so they make fancier and fancier weapons of dubious usefulness (not to mention morality or legality) and push them onto all of the above. The politicians want war because when so much money is in free-flow, a good part of it is used to pay for their votes in congress which enables the whole taxi-dance to go swirling around the dance-floor ad infinitum. It's the perfect scam because it's perpetual motion and everybody makes out like a bandit. Except the American public and the poor buggers who get invaded, bombed from 2 miles up, sliced into rashers by daisy-cutters, poisoned by depleted uranium or driven into foreign lands to escape the death squads.
"That is how the Afghan war will end."
What war?! There is no war in Afghanistan. It's an International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), don'tcha know. If you're going to issue predictions about the outcome, at least try to understand the actual situation and get the underlying terminological facts straight.
First of all, unlike Iraq, the evolution of ongoing international operations in Afghanistan have been sanctioned by multiple resolutions of the United Nations Security Council -- nine of them relating to ISAF, namely: 1386, 1413, 1444, 1510, 1563, 1623, 1707, 1776 and 1833.
Secondly, leadership of the ISAF operation was assumed by NATO on 11 August 2003, bringing the previous six-month national rotations to an end. How the mission fits into a North Atlantic treaty on mutual defence is a whole other question, but that's the military context in which it is now subsumed.
ISAF’s mandate was initially limited to providing security in and around Kabul. In October 2003, the United Nations extended ISAF’s mandate to cover the whole of Afghanistan (UNSCR 1510), paving the way for an expansion of the mission across the country. It is also noteworthy that, for reasons best known to themselves, both China and Russia have acquiesced, not only in the initial UN mandate, but also in its subsequent "mission creep" extensions.
In the circumstance, and especially considering the mixed motivations involved on the part of the supporters, it seems unlikely that military expeditures by the Afghans themselves will be a major factor in determining how and for how long the "international assistance" will continue. In fact, although one hesitates to suggest money laundering, their government is merely a conduit for much of the monetary element in any case.
REF: http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_8189.htm
Simple really. The occupation (it was never a war) of Afghanistan will
end when the projected cost of installing the UNOCAL oil pipelines
exceeds their projected value or return on investment. You didn't
actually think we were there for some political reason like ah!
national security or bringing democracy to the Afghan people did
you????
Right! And the same goes for Iraq.
RE: The pressure will build until President Obama and his military have no choice but to begin the US exit from Afghanistan.
In all likelihood, exiting from Af-Pak-Iraq won't happen during the Obama presidency - even if he is re-elected.
"(the occupation will end)...when the projected cost exceeds their projected return on investment."
Hmmm. Are you sure it's even a part of the equation? I mean, when all costs are handed down to the taxpayer, so-called 'externalities' become meaningless to them. It's all profit, all the time. Just keep the sheeple confused and the right amount of palms greased.
It is NOT a war ! Fascist amerikas invasions/ occupations of Iraq, Afpak are giant terrorist acts ! Imperialism by amerika will only end when the empire falls. The economy will continue to fail, as amerika continues to borrow bazillions to murder and torture ! At some point there wont be enough blood money to keep on killing !
It doesn't matter how expensive the war becomes. It will continue until the profits for the war-pigs diminish.
Merely by the way, Prince and Blackwater/Xe have built their own private air force in Afghanistan.
You really want that back, and all the other mercenaries, in North Carolina or along Chertoff's ERUV against Mexico?
This may be a job for Milo Minderbinder.
I will vote only for candidates who take a stand of ending the occupations in both Afghanistan and Iraq.
This means of course that in many elections I won't have an anti-war candidate to vote for, but I'm sick of voting for the lesser of evils.
Either a politician is committed to ending the war, or he is committed to not ending it.
What is really sad is that probably many candidates are actually very much against the war, but don't even say so for fear of losing votes.
Politicians who are for the wars, of course, like to trumpet it because it is almost always good for votes.
The control of the MSM and the years of propaganda and war fever in its time-tested mix with apple pie, mom, and the flag, have resulted in the population being largely, although far from completely, brainwashed to believe that the U.S. is doing something good, noble, necessary, in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The government + msm conspiracy (I can't say it is a conspiracy in a legal sense, but it will do until a real one comes along) is actually quite awe-inspiring. A huge propaganda job- huge!- has been accomplished, and is nine years running, and is still working very well, mentally guiding perhaps half or more of the citizens.
This proves to me that the MSM, using "official statements" and serious-voice editorializing, could convince at least half of Americans that the moon was actually made of cheese. Easily.
Even many people who identify with the so-called left are immediately swayed by articles in print- on the web, as seen from comments.
For example, so many people, left and right, seem to be primed for conflict with Iran.
A few years ago Americans didn't give a hoot about Iran, or North Korea either, until the government and the media worked together to paint the public a picture of evil empires.
And to a large extent, it has worked; and to some extent it has probably worked on every one of us, no matter how well we shield ourselves with prudent mistrust and skepticism.
Propaganda is really a terrible thing. It's an evil thing.
Since Sept. 2001, a huge number, perhaps half or more, of the people of the U.S. have been caught in a mass hysteria, a crowd madness, followed, gradually, by a mass depressive state- a depression probably caused more by the wars than by the sad state of the economy.
War and the love of war, which have both gripped the U.S. for nine years, are spiritually draining conditions, especially when there is no real necessity nor any real honor left in war.
The illusions live on nonetheless, generation after generation.
Even now, lots of Americans still believe that the U.S. is in these wars because A. Iraq started it with 911... or B. Afghanistan started it even though the reputed terrorists were actually in Germany. C. A hundred other reasons that don't make sense.
Anyhting to avoid an admission of being wrong about the wars.
I think that the militarism of the past nine years was only possible because, since the Reagan years, Americans became more and more conditioned, mentally, to think of war in terms of World War Two, instead of Korea or especially Vietnam.
Even the Civil War series on TV had an effect of glorifying militarism and conflict, although surely that wasn't Ken Burns's intent.
Private Ryan and other WW2 movies, painted a picture of war that went a long way to "erase the stain of Vietnam" and make people believe in war as a noble endeavour again.
WW2 has become mythologized, and Bush's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were possible because the mental model, or the meme, in use, was that of the WW2 myth of God, guts, glory, bands of brothers, and lots of soldiery bonding, (i.e. thinly veiled bromance, with firearms and explosives).
I don't now how to stop the militarism or the wars. I can't. I choose not to participate, or to agree with those who favor the wars, but that's all I can do.
The people making war will have to hit some kind of bottom.
I use the 12-step term because war is an addiction, and so is easy to start, but almost impossible to stop once well entrenched.
Too late for that. The US elite has decided upon national suicide.
There will be no collapse or suicide for the defense department.
It and its wars will continue despite any setbacks to the ordinary citizen's financial situation. War and the long term strategic goal of total control, operates outside the normal parameters of the government that we the people know of and are familiar with.
If every bank closed today. If the oil ran out. If the supermarket shelves ran empty, if a terrorist nuke went off in every major city, they would not deviate from their long term plan.
America itself is not the prize, its simply the vehicle. They've got total control, all the rest is collateral damage. Nearly every person using a cell phone and computer is now tapped, therefore--and at least somewhat--under control.
Another 'attack' and this time, things will get weird and get weird quickly.
Jest my 'pinion. I could be wrong. :)
Thinking inside the box a small, weak, incompetent elite has provided for you is perhaps closer to the truth.
"... this Congressional rebellion is the beginning of the end of this [Afghanistan-]war."
I sure hope you're right, Mr. Weisbrot, I sure do.
We've been tormenting the Afghan people as scapegoats for the criminals who suicided themselves in order to commit 9-11 for faaaaar too long. Hard to kill people who already killed themselves, of course, so vengeance had to be wreaked on someone else - mad as that is. The Afghans were weak enough to serve the purpose. - Now there's not one word of truth left in the justifications.
All that's left to do is get out.
The ongoing assault and robbery in Afghanistan is wrecking the sense of justice in the world, making US all depressed (literally pressed down, in our sense of right and wrong: feel for it - it's heavy) and lacking in common hope.
That happens just when we all need to think and act together as a group on so many issues: Climate extreming, economic system change, pollution, wasteful consumption, population stabilization - to name a few. The wars and militarism distract US as a group and species from our dire needs.
And don't give me objections saying the elite profits and wants this: sure they do, but they suffer from our common stupidity too.
The "Congressional revolt" is an illusion for the consumption of the naive among the "Progressive Democrats."
The US and NATO have their ass in a open-ended meatgrinder.
The Russians are enjoying it immensely and could watch for another ten years.
The mainland Chinese are beginning to express their displeasure at the utter mess the US and NATO have made on their border.
I dont think we have seen the beginning of the end yet. When the oil through the yet to be completed Afghani pipelines is insufficient to be worth the military presence, that will be the beginning of the end of the Afghani occupation.
Besides a rout of US and NATO forces, which is entirely possible, there is this clear terminus: the mainland Chinese will never let the US or NATO dominate Afghanistan.
Simple.
Nor will the US, as opposed to local interests, control the pipeline, if and when it is finished.
But that is merely one terminus.
This article looks into the heart of US politics. Everybody will change only when they can profit or be seen as a hero, and preferably both.
In Chinese understanding the westerner is a child, because he is wilful and selfish and clusters in family with his toys in the belief that, because it is his, it is the entire world. The Chinese see the child, as child, is innocent and they indulge children to a fault, but when the child is in an adult body and the family becomes nation or company or culture and the toys can truly kill then they see the child is a fully fledged barbarian.
What the Chinese see as barbarian, the westerner and particularly the US citizen has a wont to call individualism.
Ayn Rand, her gargoyle disciple Greenspan, and little boy Bush amongst millions of others call such selfish individualism a virtue.
Whatever is said, it seems undeniable that such an adult child is craven, base and evil and his actions stain indelibly.
There is no chance of honour here. Only an abject apology and full reparations can wash the barbarian out.
Sadly, I see nothing approaching an end either in Afghanistan or Iraq.
Bush's court jester Chalabi just got done disqualifying over 50 Iraqi candidates for their party affiliations.
Had they asked "You and what army?" what do you suppose he might have answered?
Afghanistan end? The troops that leave will head into Pakistan. You can talk about a light at the end of the tunnel all you want, but all I am getting back here is a whiff of sulphur.
True enough it is all part of the Neo-Cons' continuing Plan for the New American Century.
Except...well, on verra soon enough.
Sadr will decide matters in Iraq, one way or the other.
Also recall that "Al Qaeda in Iraq" did not exist in Iraq before the US (and unnoticed Israeli) occupation and invasion.
We can end these wars on our own. It would not continue a week if we decided to end it. Just the way segregation was ended, in Montgomery, Alabama.
http://tinyurl.com/27tfh9h
Those stinkin politicians , they are putting on their
makeup for their remake..for the elections, of course.
Many stupid voters will fall for this remake..
The perfume of the day....Anti-War rhetoric , by the very
ones that have been voting for the funding forever.
Tomorrow's perfume... financial remorm..., meaningful
legislation won't get done either
The next day to smell good... campaign finance reform..
Shumers weak and laugh of a bill, who in the fuck is Chuck
kidding? He is the one that controls all the Senatorial
election financing and is a BIG corporate whore and AIPAC
beneficiary.
None of this makeup and perfume means anything and they will
continue to stink to high heaven.
"If, like King Oedipus, the spectacle no longer wishes to look at reality, it is that it only wants to be looked at, contemplated, admired and accepted for what it pretends to be. It wants thus to be listened to, without even listening however, and it is not too much perturbed even about no longer being listened to: what seems to matter most to the spectacle is to relentlessly pursue its paranoiac journey...."
Gianfranco Sanguinetti (tr. M/PF)
The permanent militarization of U.S. policy goe's back to post WWII's MIC. Not only greater secutity but also ever-greater material abundance was sought.
Back in the late '90s, UNOCAL gave money to the Taliban to take Kabul. An inconvenient bit of history, tending to undermine the purported virtuous motives behind our current vast industrialmurder (war) on Afghanistan , er, the insurgents/Taliban.