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Egypt a Ticking Time Bomb
The Arab world’s leading nation has become a political and cultural backwater — and that’s not good
As battered air travelers struggle to recover from Iceland's volcanic big bang, another explosion is building up.
This time, it's a political one that could rock the entire Mideast, where rumors of war involving the U.S., Syria, Israel and Iran are intensifying.
President Hosni Mubarak, the U.S.-supported strongman who has ruled Egypt with an iron hand for almost 30 years, is 81 and in frail health. He has no designated successor.
Mubarak, a general, was put into power with U.S. help after the 1981 assassination of President Anwar Sadat by nationalist soldiers. Sadat had been a CIA "asset" since 1952.
Egypt, with 82 million people, is the most populous and important Arab nation and Cairo the cultural center of the Arab world. It is also an overcrowded madhouse with eight million people whose population has tripled since I lived there as a boy.
Not counting North Africa, one in three Arabs is Egyptian.
Egypt was once the heart and soul of the Arab and Muslim world. Under Sadat's predecessor, the widely adored nationalist Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt led the Arab world. Egyptians despised Sadat as a corrupt western toady and sullenly accepted Mubarak.
After three decades under Mubarak, Egypt has become a political and cultural backwater. In a telling incident, Mubarak recently flew to Germany for gall bladder and colon surgery. After billions in U.S. aid, Mubarak could not even trust a local hospital in the Arab world's leading nation.
The U.S. gives Egypt $1.3 billion annually in military aid to keep the generals content and about $700 million in economic aid, not counting secret CIA stipends, and vast amounts of low-cost wheat.
Mubarak's Egypt is the cornerstone of America's Mideast Raj (dominion). Egypt's 469,000-man armed forces, 397,000 paramilitary police and ferocious secret police keep the regime in power and crush all dissent.
Though large, Egypt's military is starved by Washington of modern weapons, ammo and spare parts so it cannot wage war against Israel. Its sole function is keeping the U.S.-backed regime in power.
Mubarak has long been a key ally of Israel in battling Islamist and nationalist groups. Egypt and Israel collaborate on penning up Hamas-led Palestinians in Gaza.
Egypt is now building a new steel wall on the Gaza border with U.S. assistance. Mubarak's Wall, which will go down 12 meters, is designed to block tunnels through which Gaza Palestinians rely for supplies.
While Washington fulminates against Iran and China over human rights, it says nothing about client Egypt - where all elections are rigged, regime opponents brutally tortured and political opposition liquidated.
Washington could quickly impose real democracy to Egypt where it pulls all the strings, if it wanted.
Ayman Nour, the last man who dared run in an election against the eternal Mubarak - "pharaoh" to Islamist opponents - was arrested and tortured.
Now, as Mubarak's health fails, the U.S. and Israel are increasingly alarmed his death could produce a political eruption in long-repressed Egypt.
Mubarak has been trying to groom his son, Gamal, to succeed him. But Egyptians are deeply opposed. The powerful 72-year old intelligence chief, Gen. Omar Suleiman, an ally of the U.S. and Israel, is another possible strongman. CIA will also be grooming another army or air force general for the job.
Egypt's secular political opposition barely exists. The regime's real opponent remains the relatively moderate, highly popular Islamic Brotherhood. It would win a free election hands down. But its leadership is old and tired. Half of Egyptians are under 20.
Mohammed El-Baradai, the intelligent, principled, highly respected Egyptian former UN nuclear chief, is calling for real democracy in his homeland. He presents a very attractive candidate to lead post-Mubarak Egypt.
Washington hopes it can ease another compliant general into power and keep the security forces loyal before 30 years of pent-up fury at Mubarak's dictatorship, Egypt's political emasculation, thirst for change and dire poverty produce a volcanic eruption on the Nile.
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15 Comments so far
Show AllIf Egypt goes a similar route as Iran did after the overthrowing of the Shah, than the ones whom should shoulder the blame are the short-sighted "intelligence agency" spooks who prefer strongmen.
Any long-term student of history can tell you that such arrangements eventually come to an end, and quite badly at that. The best outcome is if Mohammed El-Baradai wins out.
I'm afraid El-Baradi will not lead the new Egypt into the democratic fold. America is terrified on any democracy in the Middle East, especially Egypt. Right now Egypt has been bought off relatively cheaply by simply dishing out some cash to vicious dictators there and keeping them with enough domestic firepower to crush any move towards freedom. The U.S., the world’s largest sponsor of terrorism, needs a compliant Egypt so that it can concentrate on resource rich Mesopotamia. Real revolution for a democratic state in Egypt is about as likely as a revolution in the U.S. against our own corpocracy.
Have no fear. Obama, the Noble Peace Prize winner, will crush all trouble in Egypt through his Arab/Muslim surrogates.
The only hope for Middle East is SEX. The Arabs should double their population such that US's economic "aids" and US sponsored terror forces will no longer be able to contain the bubbling cauldron of rage and desperation, born of horrific poverty and injustice in a huge population.
Of course a continuous economic recession in USA, reducing the amount of military and economic "aids" to Middle East will facilitate and hasten the collapse of this imperial arrangement in the Middle East.
If this scenario comes to past, I would expect the USA to supply the Green Cards to the elites in all US sponsored territories over there. It would be a replay of Iran and Vietnam. There will be no confrontational warfares because the US would be financially unable to carry out a war of contrition, aka a stretched-out "War against Terrorism".
Mr. Margolis' analysis is a 3-month late. It would've been accurate up to last February. Now, it is a totally different ballgame in Egypt. Since Mr. Baradei's return to Egypt several weeks ago, the country is witnessing a massive popular movement demanding constitutional and political reform (Mr. Baradei's Facebook page has a 230,000 members .. About 150,000 signed petitions - more than 42,000 of them online - for amending the constitution to end Mubarak's monopoly of power .. demonstrations, strikes and sit-ins are becoming daily occurrences). While Mr. Baradei is modestly advocating just the minimum demands, he became a catalyst for the millions of unrepresented, voiceless Egyptians. "Change" has become the catchword in Egypt today. This new movement for change has achieved two major achievements: Firstly, it exposed the extreme fragility of the regime (especially as it coincided with Mubarak's ailment which paralyzed the state apparatus for more than a month) as well as its cartoonish Opposition parties. Secondly, it presented, for the first time, a third alternative other than the corrupt, supressive military-based regime, on the one hand, and the Islamist opposition, on the other. For here is a civilian, liberal, centrist alternative who can be a consensus-builder and who is capable of defusing the time bomb ticking in the heart of the Middle East.
All power to Mr. Baradei and the Egyptian people to take their country and lives back. I remember when Egypt was the bastion of culture.
Thanks. Of course, that "decent" Egypt can be restored by Egyptians!
Last time I was in Egypt was some 39 years ago and was just traveling through to try and get back to Europe and Luxembourg to catch the cheap Icelandic flight back to the US for the upcoming election battle between McGovern and Nixon.... Well we all know how that ended. I remember being a little rock starish as most of the people hadn't experienced many long haired hippy types. At one point in the airport when leaving I had about 50 Mao dressed Chinese military types trying to communicate with me. It was kind of crazy because they where the utmost in cloned conformity, looking at me as some kind of mysterious singular individual doing his own thing, in dress, travel and opinions. There seemed to be a certain curiosity and respect for someone so different then themselves.
Here's hoping the Egyptians catch a break from the tentacled,meddling, overreach of US imperial policy.
Margulis is right to focus attention on Egypt, but I am surprised to hear him say: "Washington could quickly impose real democracy to Egypt where it pulls all the strings, if it wanted." We know how well that has worked in Iraq, Afghanistan and Gaza. Whatever happens post-Mubarek must be the choice of the Egyptian people.
Well, at least the u.s. knows how to keep 'throwing money' at the egyptian generals to keep them happy and high on the hog. Just another of the many meanings of 'dollar diplomacy'; and those machines printing the money just never stop, I bet, which is another sieve sucking what is left of this fucked up economy, dry.
Reports were that US also constrains Egypt's food supply. What have they got--about three weeks worth of grain?
For those who have hope that our elite can introduce democracy to Egypt, think again.
As someone puts it, we Americans have one Muslim empire in the Middle East and another in the Far East. We appointed one Egyptian Mr. Brutos Brutos Ghali as the Secretary to the UN and we have another UN Secretary from another puppet state, South Korea's Ban Ki Moon. We can get rid of these two appointees anytime we want to. We made sure Mr. Ghali did not get a second term when he became not so pliant, exactly the same way we got Mr. Baradei out of UN. We did it with less ugliness than when we got rid of Mossagdeh in Iran as we didn't have to, but got them out we did.
For god's sake the UN headquarter is in New York, what are we suppose to do. Our dreams like Project for a New American Century and "all spectrum dominance" are not pipe-dreams. It is based on our solid foundation of national strength and invulnerability as it is or as it was.
If one day the Egyptians do get Mr. Baradei as their leader you can bet he would be under our thumb. Actually I don't think this can happen. Remember? "We" don't like this guy. As I said earlier, he had proved to be too "independent" already in his UN job.
As for democracy in our other Empires, you bet "We" want democracy for "them tha people" too. But it will have to be "Our" democracy, whereby we can place and re-place "Our" puppets
Why democracy in a country like Egypt has to be necessarily "against" U.S. interests!? Do you really think that American interests cannot be maintained except through dictatorial regimes around the world? Even at the price of winning everybody's hatred of the U.S.? Why America cannot mature and grow up out of the narrow-minded vision that sees the world only in two colors: either puppets or enemies!?
The problem has nothing to do with ours being a young nation or the fact that our elites are not experienced enough in dealing with other nations. It has everything to do with our wasteful lifestyle which we see as "ever-getting-richer", and our ideology, "capitalism", which we see as the best means to maintain this lifestyle.
Such a lifestyle means that we would soon run out of resources if our elite don't plan ahead. Planning ahead means that we must keep as much of our own resources in reserves and exploit those of others. In terms of national strategic interests and economic rationality, capitalism and a military hig enough to support it, have served us well.
To exploit other countries' resources we need them to have governments that we can control and which will work for our interests at the expense of their own countries and their own people. The kind of governments that fit this bill would be those that are dictatorial or elected by rigged elections.
Don't believe the stuff dished out by Adam Smith about how every country work for their own interest through exploiting their own "comparative advantages", and in the end every body benefits and live happily ever after. It isn't true in real life. In capitalism, however you practise it, it is always the strong that get away with more. And that is how we always come in best. By means of our earlier capitalist exploits in our own country we have become over time the smartest, strongest and wealthiest, and we can keep on being that way if we play this game of capitalism-cum militarism to the hilt. Playing this game to the hilt means we do not have equal partners or friends. We must be the masters and they just have to be the mastered.
Totally agree with your analysis. But the problem lies in the increasingly accepted fact that such world policy is no longer sustainable. America cannot go on like it used to do. Let's hope rationalists in the Administration succeed in leading it towards more realist choices.