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We Cannot 'Techno-Fix' Our Way to a Sustainable Future
This week, California will host the Asilomar International Conference on Climate Intervention Technologies. The conference follows hearings last week in the US House of Representatives and a report from the UK Committee on Science and Technology, as well as a recent report from the Government Accounting Office, all following on the heels of earlier reports from the Royal Society. In short, there is a lot of high level interest in the topic.
Given the failure of Copenhagen, the sellout of US Congress to special interests and the stalemated international negotiations, the "last resort" of geoengineering is gaining support. This is especially true as many are either in a state of panic or paralysis following recent announcements of methane seeping from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, on top of the ongoing reports of emissions rising, ice melting, and temperatures reaching all time highs.
There are good reasons to be quite worried. But there may be good reasons to be even MORE worried by the climate geoengineering proponents and what is going on at Asilomar this week.
The conference holds as its intent to develop "voluntary guidelines" for further research on climate geoengineering technologies. Voluntary guidelines are most often designed to fend off "involuntary" regulation. The conference is organized by Margaret Leinen, who happens to be the mother of Dan Whaley, founder and CEO of Climos, a company with patents currently pending for methods to profit by selling carbon offsets from ocean fertilization, one proposed geoengineering technology. Other major players in geoengineering, some of whom will be at Asilomar, similarly have vested interests in ensuring cash flows for funding, experimentation and commercialization of their pet technologies.
We can pretty well guess that whatever "voluntary guidelines" they come up with for themselves will be designed with "don't take no for an answer" as their underlying mantra.
A letter signed by dozens of civil society groups was submitted to the conference organizers, challenging the entire premise of the conference in stating: "The priority at this time is not to sort out the conditions under which this experimentation might take place but, rather, whether or not the community of nations and peoples believes that geoengineering is technically, legally, socially, environmentally and economically acceptable."
Asilomar seeks to step right on past any process for determination of acceptability, assume it as a given, and carry on with business.
This is deeply troubling on many fronts given the technofixes being put on the table, the scale of their impacts, and the track record so far.
The technologies for "climate intervention"(aka, geoengineering) fall into two broad categories: Carbon sequestration and solar radiation management. Ocean fertilization falls into the former. The idea is to dump iron particles into ocean waters to stimulate plankton blooms. The plankton absorb CO2, and when they die, (hopefully) carry their carbon to the ocean floor to remain sequestered. There are many known risk factors, including one newly discovered and described just last week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. This study revealed that the kinds of plankton that are stimulated by iron fertilization include those that produce domoic acid, cause of shellfish poisoning in humans and lethal to marine animals. Oops.
Ocean fertilization has already been tested numerous times. The controversial "Lohafex" test last year failed to illustrate any carbon sequestration after dumping more than 6 tons of iron into the Southern Ocean. To make matters worse, these tests were undertaken in spite of a moratorium agreed to by close to 200 nations under the Convention on Biological Diversity, also defying the London Convention on Ocean Dumping. Such treaties and agreements are, apparently, just pieces of paper. Biochar is another carbon sequestration technology proposed. Advocates claim that by growing hundreds of millions of hectares of tree plantations, burning the trees to make charcoal and then tilling the charcoal into soils, we can sequester carbon under ground. The scale that would be entailed here is monumental, especially given that only 12-40% of the carbon from the trees is retained in the charcoal. The impacts, on forests, soils, and from small particles (soot) becoming airborne, could very well outweigh any supposed gain.
Another broad category of climate intervention technologies involve "solar radiation management" (SRM), i.e. blocking or reflecting sunlight. Examples include using jets or rockets to blast small reflective sulphate particles into the stratosphere, "cloud whitening" to increase reflectivity by injecting saltwater mist into clouds, vast plantations of plants engineered to have shiny, reflective leaves, or covering large areas of the desert with a white/reflective coating or deplying huge arrays of mirrors into space.
These technologies are virtually all extremely risky, expensive and/or downright nuts. But, frighteningly, they are gaining mainstream acceptability! Among the advocates are some, like Bjorn Lomberg the "Skeptical Envrionmentalist", who have denied global warming is even real. Some claim that these approaches are prefereable to reducing emissions. Julian Morris, of the International Policy Network, for example stated: "Diverting money into controlling carbon emissions and away from geoengineering is probably morally irresponsible."
The potential for "weaponization" of climate geoengineering technologies adds fuel to the fires for those who find this issue troubling. Who will control and have access to the power to control rainfall or deflect (or not) sunlight in a drought, flood, famine and water deprived future world?
Perhaps it is time for a collective pause and some deep reflection? First of all, our faith in science and technology seems to be teetering precipitously. On the one hand, we appear shocked when scientists err, as if we somehow expect the scientific method and its practitioners to be godlike in their ability to predict the future of global systems and dynamics. On the other hand, many are prepared to deny the validity of literally thousand of studies all converging towards the conclusion that global warming is in fact a reality. Further, we fail to recognize that science is merely a tool, and it's ability to uncover "truths" depends utterly on the skill and integrity of its' users. Scientific rigor demands a lag time between asking a question and offering "proof" for an answer. That time delay is inconveniently long under the current circumstances.
How do we reconcile? The decision to resort to technofixes to geoengineer our only planet is not up to the handful of profit-seeking businessmen donning lab coats at Asilomar this week. The planet is our collective responsibility. The world views held by many earth inhabitants, including most if not all indigenous peoples, is that we are not Mother Earth's "mechanics", but rather integral parts of her. This view is part of the conciousness of "Pachamama" which will be visibly present at the "negotiating tables" in the upcoming World Peoples Conference on Climate Change and the Rights of Mother Earth, being held in Bolivia next month.
I, for one, will feel far more hopeful about my children's future if decisions about climate geoengineering come not from Asilomar and the "profitable technofix" mindset, but rather out of Bolivia, with the Rights of Mother Earth as their basis.
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58 Comments so far
Show All'Further, we fail to recognize that science is merely a tool, and it's (sic) ability to uncover "truths" depends utterly on the skill and integrity of its' (sic) users. '
I agree with the basic content of your article.
But for me, when an author mis-uses the apostrophe, it is difficult to take you seriously.
Very simply: Possessive pronouns never (That's Never Ever) use apostrophes.
"It's" means "It is." "Its" is the possessive form of "it." No apostrophe for possessive pronouns: Yours, mine ours, theirs its.
Your use of "Its'"--with the apostrophe after the s--is utterly meaningless.
These are grammar-school level issues. No serious journalist, or blogger, or scientist who publishes or any other person who purports to use language professionally would make that mistake, never mind twice in one paragraph.
Spell checkers don't work, either: "The rapist" flies right by, even if "Therapist" was intended, to give one of literally millions of examples.
So, next time I see your byline, I'll read.
But if I see a silly mistake as basic as this, I will thereafter avoid your efforts as a waste of time.
As an English teacher myself, I think getting upset about a grammar error is as silly as the mistake. If you teach English, or writing in particular, you must realize that people must get excited about the content, to develop the content, and they must avoid worrying about grammar and spelling until the final draft. Certainly, at the point of publication, we expect editors to help authors catch mistakes. This is one of the weaknesses, and always has been, of Common Dreams as a 'publisher.' They don't appear to have the staff or resources to hire a skilled editor. Consequently, any article that is not published elsewhere is at risk for these common errors. Nevertheless, I'd rather see them publish more articles, not fewer, errors or not.
On the other hand..................
Perhaps the lack of attention to detail is a symptom of a greater problem. The problem of not paying attention to detail. Or not caring about the ultimate consequences of an experiment because one is excited about the possibilities of patenting a geoengineering procedure that will be purchased by a large corporation working for a large government that will use that procedure to further screw up the environment for profit.
Details. What a nuisance.
I'm not "upset."
I simply point out that in a world of hyper-media saturation, it pays to show a little care for your reader, or they'll (me and others like me) will go elsewhere. The 'abject failure of technology meme' is at least as old as Mander's In the Absence of the Sacred, which pretty exhaustively proved the point that fighting the techno-fire with tech is doomed to failure, and that a massive change in human thinking is the only possible outcome, voluntarily or otherwise.
So I choose not to waste my time on a sophomoric attempt at reiterating well-known ideas.
Should her work become ground-breaking, rather than regurgitation, then I'd be as lenient, grammar-wise, as a caffeine-laden college kid texting his friends.
I know all that -- and between getting older, thinking faster than I write, acquired dyslexia, arthrotic and spastic fingersn and some other stuuff, I often make mistkes like that -- in fact I'm not prrofreading or editing this post to demonstrate.
Writing and proofre4ading are two different modes of thinking, and the one actually has very little to do with the other. Great mateamaticians make errors in arithmetic too -- I've seen MIT lectureres get stumped for the moment on simple ratio/proportion stuff.
So what?
See my other replies.
She misappropriated an apostrophe?
Call in the NSA. Have her banned from speaking the truth to power.
Throw her out I say.
Citizens should never write anything unless it is absolutely perfect.
I think many covert and overt tyrants would like us all to fear ridicule or criticism for a misspelled word or err in apostrophe use.
I didn’t run this through spell check!! Oh my! Ban me from speaking my opinion.
Is this a deliberate distraction or personal vendetta?
Neither. I ask no one to do what I'm stating I will do. Notice how my comment is directed to the author specifically.
I told the author of my reaction to her mistake, and pointed out why I would choose to avoid her writing if it kept happening.
No one else has to agree with that. Indeed, the fact that so many of you don't mind pretty much insures that she'll keep y'all as readers.
And you missed the point about spell check. I advocate NOT using spell-checkers. It would only have caught one of her errors, anyway: the non-existent " its' ".
I don't wish to ban anyone anywhere from expressing their ideas. It's just that,
like I said, if her ideas were so amazing and previously unknown, then I wouldn't have mentioned it. Again, for me, this article is old news, boss.
She wants me and folks like me as readers, then she'll heed the advice. If not, she'll ignore it.
That's it.
Except that you misused "misappropriate." That word means to acquire something without the right to do so, a.k.a. "stealing."
Peace.
"...when an author mis-uses the apostrophe, it is difficult to take you seriously."
Thank you for pointing that out. I see the same thing all over the Web. If it happens in a comment, that's one thing; but in a published article, which by >its< very nature tends to try and claim more authority than a comment, >it's< quite another.
Certainly, the content may be valuable and true, even if the writing has glaring errors, but my automatic response is to be more skeptical of the content.
Good article. Now we have to worry about 'geoengineering'--the human legacy shall be extinction and the last geoengineer can carve the tombstone epitaph:
Quickly we came,
Quickly we went.
Dumb and dumber
through our world we went.
Never deterred, never wise;
we geoengineered
our own demise.
from the article:
"Among the advocates are some, like Bjorn Lomberg the "Skeptical Envrionmentalist", who have denied global warming is even real."
you know, fuck global warming...
deny chemical and industrial devastation, asshole...the products of business...
the best man can do is stop messing (and the shit these people are discussing is messing), and start cleaning and planting, and hope there is time...
Global Start Date: September 22, 2012...the unanimous rejection of the modern world by all the planet's citizens...local living, local governing...
let's stop turning this place into garbage! let's bring it back to life...
glorious, luscious, vibrant and thriving life...
Let's get those gardens growing! We're gonna need food...
I often reinterpret the Adam and Eve myth as portending the future; a moral story of man that once having eaten the forbidden fruit of knowledge, proceeds to destroy Eden until summarily chucked out.
the Rama series by Arthur C. Clarke and Gentry Lee finds man unable to conquer his inner demon that destroys any and all others, and relies on outside officiating, alien parenting, if you will, for resolution...just, but not tolerant...
the good guys are not enough, alone...too good, maybe...or too few...
may we fare better...
Why are you waiting for a start date?
the start date is for everyone, together...that's the whole point...
the date could be any...the idea is to do it en masse...
changes at the level I'm discussing cannot be accomplished by individuals...
the abolishing of private property, for example...
Change can be accomplished by individuals. We need to change our opinion of just what is human nature. Our current paradigm is that man is selfish and greedy and violent--you know, in keeping with the theory of the Survival of the Fittest.
But this is not correct. Our nature is to be cooperative and to be members of a loving community. We can not survive as individuals. We must have community that honors and supports life. Under President Ray Gun our government declared that Greed is Good! Wrong...we must instead care and share. Those who are greedy and have more than their share, and more than they can possibly use, must be socially stimatized. It is evil to be greedy. We must use our tax funds to care for the people and our planet and all life on it. The hell with the profits of the corporations and our world empire of greed. We need to change our ways as individuals and as a nation to be empathetic. Start out by taxing the rich and funding new energy systems right now, before the oil runs out, and we more seriously damage the eco systems of the earth.
Nice. But once I awake from your daydream, I recognize that there are more than 6 billion members of homo sapiens on this small planet. For any chance we may have to survive, at least 6 billion squanderers have got to go. Then those that are left can try to hold hands and sing kumbayah.
How would abolishing private property make a difference. I don't understand that.
Are you talking about communism?
private property, one forced to pay another for the right to live upon the planet, is extortion, is criminal, and is destroying our world by driving unnecessary and unwise economic activity...
thank you, ms. smolker, for the excellent article. i've just written one with very similar sentiments, published yesterday at truthout.org: http://www.truthout.org/change-is-dead-long-live-change57879
This all speaks about the arrogance of capitalistic technology that refuses to recognize the absolute harmony and divine intelligence of creation.
I'm STILL waiting for my jet-packs !!
Did you look in the bubble-copter?
They're probably right next to the plankton stroganoff!
Brave New World!
Where the government and the CEO always know best...
...not long for this world is the brave new world!
Knowing the history of Man . Nature will be far more merciful than Man in allowing us to adjust to the changes that will be asked of us to suffer. We should be wise not be trapped by man made disaster from both sides ( pollution and fix for the pollution ).
It is clear that Man knows enough to be dangerous.
Use of technology should be limited to which that help us live with natural changes of our environment.
Could it be that Thomas Friedman is wrong? No. It can't be. He's never been wrong, not even about invading Iraq. Or Stephen Leavitt? No. Even Jon Stewart thinks they're both right about inventing and mass-producing our way out of disaster. Attention, Wal-Mart shoppers -- how could it be that they're all wrong? :-)
There's something Rachel should have mentioned but I will add. Today's younger generation has been trained to think selfishly and live selfishly as if condos and apartments along with all those tiny gizmos didn't spoil the kids' minds enough. I am fortunate to have neighbors who are ready to put aside our differences and help one another out from gardening to emergency health care when someone is not doing well and there's no ambulance in the hour of need. Online training and discussions are a great blessing but no technology can help people build self-confidence, willingness to team up, and the ability to build and sustain team confidence. There is no need to discard technology but taking it for granted is also wrong.
Proposed "Geoengineering" projects represent the pinacle of Disaster Capitalism. There is no stopping Global Warming as it's already happening and accelerating. There is only mitigating or slowing it down which can only be done by drastic cuts in the activities that cause the pollutants driving the process--something very inconvenient for industrialists, their bankers, and the politicians they own.
My own interpretation of the available data and knowledge of the human animal informs me that we are already too late, that the time for aggressive action was 20 years ago at Kyoto. Each year Business as Usual continues generates decades of additional Global Warming, a fact most seem to be blind to. And lets be clear that us humans are not going to kill the planet and its life. What is happening is Genocide in very slow motion.
"Geoengineering" and similar interventionist technologies share the disease profit-based expansionism: let's not solve the problem, but sell a treatment instead.
However, we have no cause to leave technology per se behind: tech need not mean adding gizmos, but revamping gizmos and reducing gizmos.
Retrofitting communities requires an appreciation of housing, transport, communication, and power generation technologies.
It's great to see all these ideas; we just have to reject the scams.
Cicero: "Freedom is participation in power."
I'm with Rachel Smolker re: the rights of mother earth as their basis, BUT neither side of the argument she presents honestly addresses the central problems: Artificial degradation of the biosphere and human overpopulations accelerating that degradation.
There is no substantive economic literature devoted to the planned "downgrowth" of capitalist economies. This is because capitalism relies upon several core myths to continue to operate, one of them being the myth of "endless economic growth." But what planet earth needs right now is a very CAREFULLY planned, globally interrelated, and objectively, scientifically elaborated economic & humane human population down-growth over at least the next seven (7) decades.
Neither the back-to-nature folks nor the techno-fixies have the right to try to suddenly convert the present global economic system to one which will shove billions of human beings crammed into densely overpopulated urban centers off a resource (food, potable water & energy) cliff--let alone to expect them to go quietly or idiotically pretend they don't exist.
Those massive urban population centers are, in fact, all ticking ecological, economic, political and cultural time bombs of the largest and most complicated kind. They have to be carefully defused over the next 3 to 7 decades--and this situation should be treated as an ongoing global emergency. Billions of people who know nothing about creating and distributing healthy food and who have been de-linked from the natural world for a century by industrialized farming, transportation, far-flung distribution routes, etc., will have to be taught not to rely on those ecologically failed fossil fuel dependent systems any longer for their food supply. As many as possible of them must be taught how to grow their own food and be more self-reliant for food AND energy production. Arable land will have to be gradually (at first) redistributed around the world away from giant collective corporate agri-businesses and back into the hands of family & communal/tribal self-sufficient farmers relying on more organic methods. This is just the beginning.
Arable habitats including remnant wilderness areas must be simultaneously preserved so that human, animal and plant species don't put too few biodiversity survival eggs in one basket. The Irish Potato Famine is the cautionary tale here: Reliance on one monoculture that crashed when a plant disease spore was brought in on a sailing vessel resulting in the starvation deaths of a million people and an enormous forced human population exodus. So habitats and remnant wilderness areas must be HARMONIZED with SUSTAINABLE human populations and these are not subjective economic or political decisions that must be made to achieve this but, global, democratic, objective scientific decisions.
Technology has encouraged the human species to overpopulate itself into an ecological resource corner on a global scale. This has created an existential situation where, despite obsolete pre-high tech cultural & economic beliefs ("the more children I have the richer I am"), or equally obsolete superstitious nonsense ("it is my religious duty to have as many children as I can"), the entire world can no longer afford for the ability of human beings to procreate to be treated as a freely exploitable right, but an earned and limited privilege. That's IF we want to preserve of technology what we can sustainably preserve and not fully revert to a stone age species.
metal said: "Neither the back-to-nature folks nor the techno-fixies have the right to try to suddenly convert the present global economic system to one which will shove billions of human beings crammed into densely overpopulated urban centers off a resource (food, potable water & energy) cliff--let alone to expect them to go quietly or idiotically pretend they don't exist."
And that is the problem isn't it: Finding something productive that emits no Global Warming pollutants for all the excess numbers of people to do while the global economic paradigm enters "downgrowth" on the way to a steady-state sustainable economic paradigm. I've written about that and offered solutions that appear to go unread given the paucity of responses I've gotten. The situation is Radical and demands radical steps be taken just to mitigate. By radical, I mean 200 Million US residents must completely stop emitting carbon pollution starting tommorrow and continue for the rest of their lives, yet it isn't ethical to force folks off a cliff, which is already being done through inaction. And as we just saw with the massive subsidy voted to the health extortion industry, nothing of substance will be done as jobs and the economy will be deemed more important than the environment upon which they're based. Expect the worst and plan for it is how I see events occurring.
along these lines, I feel it is vital to not project our current mindset into the future...
obviously, the future will not work if everyone expects stores and video games and banks and jobs and schools and...
life, apart from technology, presents inherent pleasures...
pot has been discussed elsewhere on this site today...
I would, in all seriousness, recommend widespread marijuana use as a panacea moving through this coming period of tribulation...
sex has also been discussed elsewhere on this site today, but not positively...sex is rarely discussed positively in any arena, and that is worht noting, but a much more positive attitude toward sexual activity, in general, is another thing I feel is vital moving forward...
we simply have to come up with a way for greater sexual expression to be part of our daily lives...
then there are the arts, physical activities, many skills associated with the tasks of living in the world...
sunshine and rain, other creatures, exploration and travel...
also, difficult to quantify, but what about being free of financial obligation and legal mumbojumbo?
bliss? maybe no, but maybe better than many quite possible futures...
as for suddenly converting the global system, and rights, that seems to be happening anyway, and what about the rights of those who want their only planet to remain functional?
EKW's Grandad: "From the time that you're born 'till you ride in a hearse, there's nothing so bad it couldn't be worse."
"as for suddenly converting the global system, and rights, that seems to be happening anyway, and what about the rights of those who want their only planet to remain functional?"
The present system took 200-plus years of industrialization to consolidate. The sudden conversion I'm talking about would be the sudden collapse of the existing global corporate model of global agri-business food (mostly monocultural) and sylviculture production and distribution. Were that to happen billions of human beings would die within 5 to 7 years.
I appreciate your point...
of course, the 200-year road you describe was a rambling one, driven by profit and exceptionalism and technological advance, and going, rather, against nature all the way...
what potential in a much more rapid and intentional effort to more closely align with nature?
"and going, rather, against nature all the way..."
The very concept of anything going against nature is impossible by definition, and we're not likely to even start discussing honest solutions to the problems we do have until everyone realizes this basic point.
Cicero: "Freedom is participation in power."
"The very concept of anything going against nature is impossible by definition..."
OK, I've read some stupid comments on this and other sites in my time, but this one wins the all time, all purpose idiot award.
It's because of too many people like this vorpalmusic person, who are utterly devoid of basic common sense (or, if you're religious - "the sense that God gave you") that the United States is circling the drain and, at this rate, will be a dead empire within 15 years.
Cicero: "Freedom is participation in power."
World leaders would either have to be tricked into accepting such an "alignment plan" for everyone's own good, or they would have to be convinced of the ugly fact that what is happening to the environment makes every threat of conventional war pale in comparison and magnitude and that, therefore, they should invest more in environmental sustainability than they do on military defense.
How about a bio-engineered virus that sterilizes everyone. The next generation is a very small one, of test tube babies, immune to the bug. They start over with the stern warnings of the past to control themselves. They live with all of our technology and the knowledge that the human race nearly destroyed itself with that technology.
All we need is a good genetic biologist.
Misanthropic, Malthusian sicko.
Cicero: "Freedom is participation in power."
The greatest danger posed by such an idea is that viruses can unpredictably mutate and sometimes cause unpredictable genetic mutations within their host species. Keeping only a small set of immune gametes or test tube fetuses limits humanity's genetic heritage and puts its survivability as a species in one small egg basket. Any number of disease or environmental threats could much more easily wipe out the remnant population if it was too small. Your idea also avoids the fact that surviving human beings would still need to adapt to an entirely different culture than their previous one and your idea will not prepare them for this.
"For a list of all the ways technology has failed to improve the quality of life, please press three."
--Alice Kahn
Cicero: "Freedom is participation in power."
I expect more and more countries to organize to more meaningfully address these crises by going around the laissez-faire regressive capitalists of Amurka while they continue to go more green. The contemporary U.S. corporatist/fascist regime is cutting its own domestic economic throat every which way from Sunday and overextending its military empire as it is and ultimately that may be a good thing for the biosphere. The U.S. has failed both national and global leadership on this issue and its hardcore resource extractive, pro-fossil fuel, pro-pollution policies represent one of the greatest threats to the biosphere and near future human generations.
Without sterilization,
We are going to go extinct.
With sterilization,
we are going to go extinct (but at a later date).
I base this on the geologic record that inarguably reveals that 99 percent of all species on this Earth have gone extinct. Homo sapiens is not going to be the first to escape these odds.
The next creature that rules the earth will be a mutant bug or reptile who breathes methane. There's a small chance for a while for descendants of Bill Gates who have locked up the worlds seeds in a nuclear vault in the arctic. This Dr Strangelove activity says to me, his elite club are probably intent on wiping the rest of us out while preserving themselves with a covert vaccine.
I think it is fairly pointless to waste effort on a magic bullet when by 2100 there will be so many tailpipes on the planet no mammal could possibly breathe.
I agree with Karlof that the only option is to declare war on the internal combustion engine and use the military to take out any pollution smoke stack that disregards this order.
We'll be sitting in the dark like a bunch of mushrooms, and the birthrate is sure to shoot up if we don't plan for that, but at least we can gauge the effects of a zero-emission year.
But, dipshit stuff like band-aids on top of a cancer patient is not going to cure this global disease. Stupid cons like dumping Metal in the Ocean or spraying salt water in the sky is not going to overcome the fact that two billion chinese and a billion Indians are now are in line for a new automobile. A new coal plant is going on-line in China every week now.
We've got to use some common sense, and try to overcome mindless religion and destructive commerce.
I'm not sure we can do it.
Oh well, pass the bong as somebody said...
TJ
The probability that any of these "fixes" will have any positive effect is exactly zero. In order for any potential fix to work, one would need to know so many things we don't know. We would have to understand in some detail the sensitivity of all sorts of mutually dependent variables in response to any suggested changes, a very challenging effort in its own right, as the large uncertainty in the IPCC models demonstrates. My understanding is that the smaller-scale experiments that have been tried either didn't work at all, or had unintended consequences - a completely predictable outcome of messing with a system we don't understand.
As an engineer, I know that without proper understanding of a system, it is best left alone. Geoengineering in my mind is roughly analogous to an average person taking off the back of their television set and starting to fiddle with all the internal adjustments, and then expecting it to work. Not going to happen. Period. (Of course, nowadays, very few if any adjustments exist in a television, but the point is still legitimate) If you don't know how a system works, leave it alone. There is usually only one or a small number of ways to fix (or improve?) it, and an almost infinite number of ways to break it.
Gregory Bateson once wrote an essay on roots of the ecological crisis, and noted that it was the combined effect of population, technology, and "hubris" that has led us into what he called "an evolutionary cul-de-sac." We have focused our conscious purpose in ways that we find immediately desirable, rigidly programmed them into the structure of our culture, and now these structures are making all efforts at change in the direction of sustainability impossible.
He thought of hubris as simply errors in how we come to know the world, failures in our epistemology. But unfortunately, he noted that a wrong epistemology can work for a long time before the internal contradictions and limitations become evident. By then, it is too late to undo the changes that have already rippled into the system.
So while I agree with Ms Smolker in that I would like to see much more emphasis on other ways of living - particularly indigenous ways, I think the techno-addicts will never comprehend that their epistemology is wrong. They cling to it like an alcoholic to a bottle. I think the chances are good they will get their opportunity, right or wrong. After all, how many dying people willingly take experimental drugs that they know might kill them? We are indoctrinated from birth that nature is cruel and harsh, and we try to beat her at every turn. The idea of letting things take their natural course has been thoroughly wiped from the mind of almost every American.
Lastly, I think there may be a third option that she doesn't consider: returning to the land voluntarily. For my part, I've given up trying to tell other people they shouldn't screw up the planet. Experience has taught me that most Americans are in flat-out denial, and I don't want to see an even more fascist response to what are really intractable problems. So my solution follows Gandhi's suggestion: Be the change you wish to see in the world. Will it solve the larger problems with the ecosystem? No. But it's a start, and I don't have to brow-beat and guilt-trip people along the way. My goal is to demonstrate that a much lower-energy, less intensive lifestyle is not only possible, but much more emotionally and spiritually fulfilling than the wasteland of consumption and greed called Western culture.
"As an engineer, I know that without proper understanding of a system, it is best left alone."
This is an interesting perspective--and one that would eliminate nearly all of the knowledge that has ever been obtained by mankind. Secondly, in response to:
"Lastly, I think there may be a third option that she doesn't consider: returning to the land voluntarily"
Surely you are aware that urban life is many, many times more environmentally sound than if everyone lived "on the land".
I dispute the claim that we have acquired much that could be qualified as "knowledge." If one speaks of eternal verities, I think we have only begun to open that door. Most of what we "know" is irrelevant. I am wholly unimpressed with the West's so-called "knowledge." But if you are talking about more efficient methods of killing other people, then yes, I would agree that we have more "knowledge." Exactly the kind we don't need.
And as for urban life being more environmentally sound than living "on the land," let's see what happens when the grocery store shelves go bare. I give this country three days without food, and no more, before all hell breaks loose. If you cannot meet your needs yourself, you are formally dependent on others to do that for you.
When the large technical systems fail that make "just-in-time" delivery of food, fuel, and water possible, we'll see just how "many times more environmentally sound" urban life actually is.
Cities are going to fall. And it is not going to be pretty. Good luck with that.
Also see www.dieoff.org
This site presents, among other things, a handy little digest of the entire history of human civilization. Its author has some interesting points to present. His thesis posits that the end of the energy age, and especially the end of the age of oil, will decimate advanced civilization. Though a bit tongue-in-cheek, it is a compelling view.
And the end of cheap energy has begun already, on an already overpopulated planet. And this timeline does not even consider the unmitigated effects of continued global warming. Nor does it take into account the effects of possible nuclear resource wars, and resource wars have already begun as well.
1. Pre Industrial Phase [c. 3 000 000 BC to 1765]
(-----Stone Age-----)
A - Tool making (c. 3 000 000 BC)
B - Fire used (c. 1 000 000 BC)
(-----Stone Age Interrupted-----)
C - Neolithic agricultural revolution (c. 8 000 BC)
D - Watts steam engine of 1765... (proto-industrial phase begins)
2. Industrial Phase [1930 to 2025, estimated ]
E - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value
F - Peak energy-use
G - Present energy-use
H - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value
3. Post Industrial Phase [c. 2100 and beyond ]
J, K, and L = Recurring future attempts at industrialization fail.
(-----Stone Age Resumes-----)
the end.
I think most environmentalists are not being realistic.
The great methane release of the 2020s is inevitable.
Even if you stopped human emissions completely right now... 400 gigatons of methane is going to be released soon because of the carbon already in the atmosphere. When that happens look forward to poisoned hydrogen sulfide clouds floating around earth destroying all ozone, and killing all plant/animal-life like 250 million years ago...
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/02/050223130549.htm
I think it's time to build support for techno-fixes. The great thing about techno-fixes is that oil/coal/agribusiness companies won't care if we do them.
I think we need to fund NASA to research sending a giant reflective tarp near Venus in-between the sun and earth so we can block all sunlight in the Arctic.
Just have it there ready to be deployed... just in case methane starts being released exponentially from the arctic and ocean. Despite how much environmentalists have invested in "Plan A" - having a "Plan B" as an option is never a bad idea.
Fundamentalist thinkers of all stripes never get far enough to see the Plan B. The debate is still being driven by the laughably irrelevant premise of natural vs. unnatural.
The problem is just as amenable to rational solution as any other has ever been. Some people will always insist that we appeal to irrationality instead, though.
"Get back to the land"--ignoring that the population continues to mushroom, and that having it consolidated actually preserves energy, while dispersing over the countryside more than we already do would demonstrably be catastrophic.
"Down with modern technology"--ignoring that nobody would hear what they were saying if not for these new media, and even more ironically, that they would never have had access to enough information to come to these kind of half-baked conclusions without it.
"Don't eat meat"--yeah, ok, this one is probably a really good idea, lol. What about eating insects; we probably ought to be exploring that a bit more.
My point is that the majority of "solutions" actually lead to worse problems than the ones they are ostensibly solving, and people tend to let unquestioned assumptions drive the "debate."
You say: "The problem is just as amenable to rational solution as any other has ever been."
I disagree. I don't see any evidence suggesting this is a tractable problem that can be dealt with in any kind of rational way. I would need to see some serious evidence to support such an outrageous claim, and I am doubtful you can supply it.
I actually agree with what Karlof1 wrote way down on this page. It's basically over. Go ahead and do your geoengineering projects if you think it's going to help, but as I already said, the chances are excellent that things will actually get worse. If you fiddle with a system you don't understand, you will much more likely make things worse.
The central reality is that this is an intractable problem. There are no easy fixes. Many, many people are going to die, and there is no getting around that basic fact.
Since I don't see you suggesting any solutions - other than to live in a city, be dependent upon trucked food, pumped water, and shipped fuel for heat and transportation, rely on modern technology, and to pursue geoengineering, I think it would be fair to say you are fundamentalist in your own right. So you might want to think a bit about exactly what you are advocating before trashing other solutions.