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Eight Reasons the Democrats Lost Virginia & New Jersey—and How to Recover
Losing the Virginia and New Jersey governorships hurt. Local factors played a part, but these are major states. So it matters why the Democrats lost them. Here are eight reasons, with lessons on how to reclaim the momentum of just a year ago:
Bad candidates.
The consensus choice, but worth stating before moving on to reasons less obvious. Creigh Deeds ran an awful campaign, even saying he'd reject a healthcare public option. Jon Corzine's ratings were disastrous from the beginning and his Wall Street background combined with the massive indictments of so many New Jersey Democrats to offer the worst possible symbolism. You have to give people something to fight for, and if our candidates are this unpopular, we'd better get better ones.
Blue Dogs.
The Blue Dogs watered down the stimulus package so much that it couldn't stem the continuing loss of jobs. It also included far too little aid to beleaguered state and city governors. So unemployment has continued to climb, creating an understandably disgruntled electorate. No one likes a governor or mayor whose main job is to cut needed services and throw more people out of work, so this puts Democratic incumbents in a terrible bind. If Democrats want to protect their incumbents in 2010, they need to tackle continued job losses and the continued bleeding of local budgets.
Baucus, Nelson, and their cohorts. (More Blue Dogs)
Imagine if Democrats had united to pass a healthcare bill like the original House version, including popular elements like a strong public option and being funded through taxes on the wealthy. Imagine if they'd done it promptly after some reasonable discussion, instead of dragging it out for months and second-guessing every step. Obama and the Democrats would have something to show voters by now, a record as a party that can get things done even on critical and difficult issues. Instead, after watching endless internal bickering, the public fears the Democrats really will never get their act together, and that what they do pass will be so beholden to wealthy corporate interests that it won't address our real problems. The sooner the Senate and House pass a reasonably progressive healthcare bill, especially one that starts benefiting people immediately, the more the Democrats can reclaim their reputation.
Obama.
Obama hardly has sole responsibility for the defeats, especially since most voters in New Jersey, and even Virginia still approve of his presidency. But maybe if he'd talked more honestly about the level of disaster we've inherited, and what it will really take to address it, Americans wouldn't be backlashing so severely on the economy. Maybe if he had put people other than like Geithner and Summers in charge, voters wouldn't feel that if you're a banker or speculator who helped crash the global economy, you and your institution get a bailout or golden parachute, but if you've been thrown out of work or your small business fails, you're on your own. Maybe if he'd leaned on the Blue Dogs more (channeling his inner Lyndon Johnson), they'd have come around by now. Obama needs to start governing more as he campaigned-by consciously building a movement and creating momentum to carry candidates and legislation he supports over the top. And he needs to take strong moral leadership on the key issues we face.
The plummeting youth vote, and demobilization in general.
In exit polls, Virginia voters under 30 dropped from 21% of the 2008 electorate to 10% this year, and from 17% to 9% in New Jersey. Minority voting saw a similar decline. In both states, over half the Obama voters of a year ago simply stayed home. With this collapse of the Democratic base, even relatively modest Republican turnout could carry the day.
In Seattle, where I live, voters elected a strong slate of progressive local officials, both in the city and our more conservative county, including candidates who defeated entrenched incumbents. These candidates actively targeted young voters, whose participation also helped defeat a regressive statewide tax initiative and pass a statewide initiative affirming civil unions. The difference is mobilization and vision, because our local candidates invested resources on reaching young voters and giving them something to turn out for. The Obama campaign reached out to young voters intensively, as did major nonpartisan efforts like those of the PIRGs and RockTheVote. This time, the Democratic campaigns did minimal outreach, and too many young voters who would have supported Democratic candidates never made it to the polls.
The Democrats and the media who threw ACORN under the bus.
ACORN definitely made some poor staffing choices. But their alleged "voter fraud" is a Republican myth, since when a handful of paid canvassers added fake registration names, the only institution harmed or defrauded was ACORN itself, who'd spent money to register nonexistent people, none of whom ever even tried to cast a vote. Fox and its cohorts never mentioned that ACORN was legally required to turn in the dubious names, which they flagged for election officials to reject. And yes, some low-level staffers deserved being fired or worse for not instantly ejecting the young conservatives who played pimp and "ho," but the media stories never mentioned those who did and even called the police. The real reason for the attacks was the organization's long-time role in organizing low-income communities, and their registering 1.3 million legitimate voters in the 2007-2008 election cycle alone. By failing to stand up for ACORN's legitimate achievements, cowering Democrats helped the political right demobilize a major force to get low-income communities to participate politically. Other efforts will find hard this force hard to replicate.
Organizing for America.
Organizing for America has done some important things, like generating 300,000 phone calls on healthcare reform. But mostly, it's just been sending out videos of Obama's talks and then asking for money. They've done little or nothing to foster the actual campaign's intensely creative invent-your-own-approach style, and little to connect people so they can empower each other to act. Despite a 13-million-name email list, the organization's impact has been underwhelming so far. They need to start taking more risks and help rebuild a strong grassroots movement among those who did so much to elect Obama. That would go a long way toward shifting America's political culture.
Our common inaction.
A few days before the election, I had dinner with my friend Magdeleno Rose-Avila, who used to work for Cesar Chavez and first got Sister Helen Prejean involved in death penalty issues. A year ago, Magdeleno said, everyone he knew was going to the mat to get Obama elected: giving money, time, everything we could. We stretched beyond what we could, and then we stretched some more. Now, most people he knows have become political spectators. We send out emails. Maybe we call our Senators. But compared to the year before, our actions are minimal, and ineffectual. We haven't been reaching out, canvassing, bombarding the media, calling swing states, marching in the streets, attending town meetings, and coming together to get our voices heard. Or at least not enough of us have. If we want significant change, we must lead the way we did before, but have since stopped. If we want progress, we're going to have to work for it.
The reasons for the Virginia and New Jersey defeats are correctable. We can get better candidates, and make clear to those running that if they stand for nothing, their constituents will fall for anything. Obama and the House and Senate leadership must tell Blue Dogs and Senators like Baucus: The more they block progress on popular key initiatives, the more swing Democrats, including many of the most conservative, will pay the electoral consequences. Conversely, if they can finally pass a decent progressive healthcare bill and help shore up state governments, they'll ultimately benefit at the polls. For his part, Obama needs to start building a movement again. That means leading by example, playing hardball with obstructionist Democrats, and encouraging those grassroots citizens who act on the issues he cares about-even if they push him farther than he'd like. The rest of us must recognize our fight is big, and change can't come from Obama alone-something that should be amply clear by now. We have a chance that will be fulfilled only if we start reaching out once again to our fellow citizens, as we did when we helped carry Obama over the top a year ago.
25 Comments so far
Show AllThis article misses the point (or understates) that Democratic voters have lost faith in the 2 party system as well as Obama. Last year, Obama had support based on his pledges. For the most part he has failed on his pledges and has continued following many of Bush's policies. The Democratic Congress has failed in that its foreign policies have been aligned with the Republicans and domestic policies have been bought out by special interests. Democratic voters were fooled last year into voting for change and Congress and Obama didn't deliver. Sending letters to Democrat Congressmen that essentially lied may let of steam, but won't change the immoral fiber of the Congressmen. The solution is voting third party, not getting fooled again. This article also fails to address the depth of Independent and Progressive dissatifaction which goes beyond the writings of this article.
This article ignores betrayal. Pure, craven, vicious betrayal.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-25-billion-dollar-secret-the-ny-fed-goldman-and-the-aig-cover-up-2009-11
Obama abandoned progressives before progressives abandoned him. He deserves desertion and so do all the spineless democrats trailing in his wake.
I'm sorry, but I primarily blame Obama. If he'd come in and been as transformative as he said he was, even the lousy candidates would have won from the "glow" of his coattails.
The youth support dried up because of him too. Myself, I'm skeptical of any politician as a matter of course. But I admit Obama actually did inspire me and made me hopeful that THIS WAS IT! And now, unfortunately he's proven his critics right - he's not much more than empty speeches. Worse yet, it almost hurts to hear others work the Hope and Change theme into THEIR speeches and writing. It all just sounds too hollow now.
I am from nj and I KNOW the reason the dems lost NJ was one reason and one reason only
Corzine was terrible
Compared to Chris Christie ? ??? ...... LOL .... man, that guy is the quintessential crooked politico, gluttonous, fat from his spoils, this guy is a walking, or waddling, caricature of corrupt Boss Tweed style politics.
(But I take perverse pleasure from Christie's win just because Corzine is the perfect Zionist Demo Wall St. insider)
I don't trust Christie, but he was the unknown quantity and the alternative to corzine
corzine wanted to "monetize" state assets
that meant sell nj to wall street,
including, the turnpike and parkway and atlantic city expressway and other properties
then he would promptly piss all the money away giving it to his rich buddies who are not required to contribute
causing them to have raise taxes on regular people such as sales tax, property tax, registration fees,
then the guy wants to close state parks,.............. what kind of moron politician threatens to close state parks????
but he didn't even have the guts to do it himself.............. he had his head of parks "float" the idea in the press............ then he came back later saying that "obviously" this not going to happen
then he guts the parks budgets so they can't staff them or maintain them
how about closing rest stops on the highways so that you don't have to pay someone to clean the bathrooms???
again did not make the rich or the corporations contribute
whitman previous governor lowered the corporate tax from 2 percent to 0.8 percent
what an onerous burden for the corporations , my god , 2 percent tax!!!!!
thats the same tax rate for the lowest earners in the state ............. god forbid asking corporations to pay what the poorest workers in the state pay
corzine completely silent on this issue, no moves to make the rich and the corporations contribute
corzine was paulsons predecessor at goldman sachs (need i say more)
he bought his senators and then his governors seat by far outspending his opponent being that he is worth about 200 million dollars
what was his main contribution, lets pick on the state workers, not give raises, reduce benefits, take unpaid furlough days, etc etc
never mind that all that money those state workers get stimulates the economy
but lets shrink the economy by giving all the money to his rich wall street buddies, that , in practice , was corzine
"In both states, over half the Obama voters of a year ago simply stayed home."
If Obama were a real man, these results would be a slap in the face and a call to arms.
As it is, Obama will probably allow the slimy Emmanuel try to 'finesse' these results and wind up making things much worse.
As usual, we'll get plenty of posts using the word "sheeple" and castigating everyone who voted for Obama.
Third parties are our only way out of the morass in which we find our country. Sadly, too many drones on this board use events such as these election results to scream about Democrats without pointing out that republicans are not only as bad as Dems but even find ways to be worse.
Turning away from the Dems is the right thing to do but turning to the republicans is the wrong thing to do.
q
A little too late to write this when these warnings could have been brought up before the elections but how many people L-I-S-T-E-N ? We could talk all day about turnout and compare Seattle to VA and NJ relentlessly but the fact remains that it was all about the party's refusal to take populism seriously.
NJ I only know so much about but Deeds was someone I detested as far as his going "centrist" was concerned. I voted for Brian Moran in the primaries but sat this election out on Tuesday. Deeds stood with Obama on mountain top removal, opposed single payer for all Virginians, had very weak to no plans on solving transportation woes compared to Mcdonnel's not that either one of them will solve this one, and did nothing to address the rising costs of living in Hampton Roads and Northern VA. Instead, Deeds went too much into "abortion" and same old talk about school salaries which were yesterday's issues. He could have addressed education in broader terms rather than focus on the salaries of some teachers alone. He could have also stopped alienating us working class liberal male voters by not flooding our male boxes with "abortion" scare tactics spam ! Add it all up and of course typical Democratic voters of all ages, races, genders, etc ... will be turned off !
Obama won in 2004 and 2008 by luck and fluke. Anyone could defeat Alan Keyes in IL any day. Obama's victory in 2008 came because of the big meltdown on Wall Street in September just as Obama was sinking in the polls. Had the meltdown happened November and after, Mccain would have won much like Bush Sr. in 1988.
There is no doubt that the public's anger with Washington refusing to depart from the status quo spilled into these two races. Voters in NJ defeated Jon Corzine handily for being a Goldman Sachs hack all along much like shooting a turkey straight from the sky. I knew that these two races would go down like this and I still stand by my words that they are both a very very bad omen for this party in 2010 and 2012.
The financial and economic crisis we face have been a bi-partisan effort in dismantling many of the economic policies created by FDR in overcoming the last depression. Both parties supported free trade/NAFTA which destroyed our industrial and manufacturing base. Both parties supported the deregulation policies in banking, transportation, energy which have had disastrous effects. Both parties supported the repeal of Glass-Steagall which allowed for the multi-trillion dollar bubble of speculative debt to grow to the size of a mushroom cloud that is destroying whatever remnants of economic activity are left after years of de-industrialization (progressives didn't protest too loudly over that)and dismantling of our machine-tool and manufacturing capabilities.
Both parties are responsible for supporting the terrible economic policies of globalization, de-regulation, privatization, free trade, de-industrialization etc.
At this point in our nations demise, there is very little to distinguish a Rep. from a Dem. as they all have proven to be incompetent in the matters of eoonomics.
Sioux Rose
IVY: Well stated! Right on.
I get about one e-mail a week asking me to contact my congressman to push him to vote for this or that. But I am among the roughly 60,000 voters in my county who have been effectively disenfranchised. I live in Butler County, Ohio, the home of John Boehner, otherwise known as Mr. NO!. There are, give or take a few, 135,000 voters in this county. In any election 65 to 68 thousand of them will vote for the GOP, no if's and's or but's. You think John Boehner is corrupt? No more than the party that backs him. The GOP holds every elective county office save one (a judgeship). The candidate with the party endorsement is a certainty to win in spite of the fact that the County Commission (three men) is a game of musical chairs of corruption, exposure, resignation and appointment of someone else just as crooked. Inside of three years we have had one past commissioner indicted on 8 federal counts for crimes while in office, another commissioner facing charges before a State Ethics Board, a county treasurer forced out of office for criminal activity while in office, a county auditor who pleaded guilty to federal crimes while in office, and the party is scrambling to keep the lid shut on a whole host of other bribery, mismanagement and tax evasion crimes. Yet next year, all incumbents will be re-elected. John Boehner is so secure in the midst of all this corruption that he does not even spend any money on a campaign--he gives it to others of his ilk. Now if Obama wants to really work for me, he will unleash the Justice Department on this county.
Then perhaps contacting my congressman will not be a waste of time.
Eight Reasons the Democrats Lost Virginia & New Jersey—and How to Recover
Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn if the Democrats "recover" or not. It makes no difference whatsoever.
Seriously.
My reply was in mind once I saw the headline: Who cares?
Ditto.
zmann: Who cares?
Paul Rogat Loeb
That's why he's in the position he's in TODAY!
· Yr Obd't Servant
Frankly, I want to let the Dems die. What good are they anyway for the working (if you still got a job) people of this nation? Answer---NONE.
When we see clearly that both of the corporate parties are equally evil, we can start over and try to get some democracy in our nation. Let both parties die and kick their corpses over the the side of the road. Let's get moving with independent candidates.
We need a fresh slate of candidates who will really represent the people of their districts. Weep no tears for the death of the Democratic party---good riddance is a better attitude. Do not let the death of the Democrats send you over to the darker side. Let both sides of the two headed monster die in peace (and hopefully quickly)
genicon
The continued belief that there is a difference between the two parties, cannot be attributed to ignorance, every one knows since 2006 the democrats have had the power to change direction, they have the house, the senate, and the presidency , yet nothing changes.
So the continued focus on these insignificant squabbles between the Dems. and Reps. can only be stupidity.
The Dems lost because all the ranking party Dems have spent a year booting their centrist-to-progressive constituency in the teeth on every identifiable issue.
A puppy would have bitten Pelosi by now.
Oh my, that was priceless. They should turn that into a bumper sticker.
The Democratic Party needs to put itself on trial for crimes against humanity, declare itself guilty, and dissolve itself for the good of the human race.
This--and this alone--is what the Democratic Party "needs" to do.
I feel ya!
But you know, those depraved swine would just declare a mistrial and head straight back to the trough. Thus honor is satisfied.
· Yr Obd't Servant
True enough.
We have to put them on trial.
I was just following Loeb's trope about what the Democratic Party "needs" to do--that whole cud-chewing school of faux-progressive commentary: the Dems "need to" or "should" do x or y, Obama needs to or ought to to this, blah blah unto nullity and eternal recurrence of the same idiocy and futility.
I think you can qualify for a lifetime sinecure at The Nation Institute and a weekly column in the magazine simply by stepping up to the podium and declaring what Obama and the Dems "need" to do.
I've read and heard mainstream politicial analysis which says that Obama should move even more rightward to pick up the independent vote which is leery of "big government." Let them go that way and see how many votes they gain. What even Rahm should be adding to the calculus is how many votes they will lose, how many defections to the Greens, how many primary challenges from those who stay Democratic. Believe me, they hardly bat an eye at offending what they consider to be a small left wing minority. When will they listen? WHEN THEY ARE HANDED A HUMILIATING, DISCREDITING DEFEAT IN 2010 AND WHEN OBAMA FEARS FOR FOR HIS DEFEAT IN 2012 PRIMARIES. First sign that he gets it will be when we see Rahm Immanuel, Dick Geithner and Larry Summers go.
Why would anyone, for one moment, think that Obama, handmaiden of billionaires who contributed millions to get Obama elected, even consider turning the tide in favor of the poor, misguided citizens who voted for him?
Of course not! He's going to do everything in his power, and he is doing just that, to return those millions plus, to his big campaign contributors, the billionaires who control every financial aspect of our lives.
Just think, folks, military/industrial megamonster, the insurance industries, the oilopoly, the sick care industry-all of those who have, in just a year, benefited enormously from Obama's and his Congress's decisions.
Why would anyone in his right mind think that Obama, or any Democrat, would do things any differently from what he's already done?
That's what U.S. politics is about! So what if Obama loses the next election, who cares? Certainly not him. He would go on to continue amassing his fortune, just the way Clinton, Bush, et al., are doing-giving $100,000 speeches once a week, hobnobbing with billionaires on their private, gold-plated hardware jets, paid for by stupid taxpayers.
And, at the same time, he would assist Michelle to some very comfortable, well-paying government job, the same as Clinton has done.
Nothing has changed in my lifetime. With each election, which I have seen since Roosevelt, things have gotten steadily worse. The right wing have a stranglehold on everything that affects our lives-cradle to grave, and there isn't a damn thing we can do about it, short of a revolution. And as long as the right wing control the media, and thus the message, forget about "democracy."