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Karzai Did the Deals That Made Him a Winner Anyway
The scene was evocative, Abdullah Abdullah making his stand against corruption in front of hundreds of grizzled old warriors and tribal chiefs. The setting was the huge tent built for the loya jirga after the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, an apt symbol of a new beginning as the former comrade of the great Mujaheddin commander Ahmed Shah Masood threw down a gauntlet for a possible future challenge to Hamid Karzai for the leadership of Afghanistan.
Despite all the criticism heaped on Mr Karzai for fraud in the election and for all the surprisingly strong showing of Mr Abdullah, there was always going to be one winner in this race, Hamid Karzai.
The demographics of Afghanistan mean that Mr Karzai, from the majority Pashtun population, could not be beaten by a man who is of mixed Pashtun and Tajik parentage, but draws his support overwhelmingly from Tajiks. Besides, deals done by Mr Karzai had ensured that he would have got the other significant minority votes, the Uzbeks and Hazaras.
It is one of the ironies of the electoral mess that Mr Karzai would probably have won in the first round of the polls even without his supporters engaging in massive and blatant ballot stuffing. To his surprise and anger he was penalised for the fraud and forced to run a second round.
The incumbent president and his followers, and indeed many Afghans who do not directly support him blame the West for putting them through a second electoral process.
Around $300m (£180m) has been spent so far on the elections. And then there are the lives of soldiers, civilians and officials lost in attacks by the Taliban who vowed to disrupt the polls. Further costs, human and material, to get Mr Karzai to his 50 per cent of votes officially needed for victory would cause an international outcry. Many UN staff, who have seen seven of their colleagues murdered - five last week in Kabul - in the course of election work, are close to revolt against taking part in such an empty exercise.
The likely course now is election officials will take the matter to the supreme court which could waive the rules demanding a second round. Western officials insist that Mr Karzai will in future be pressurised to carry out reforms and take a firmer stand against corruption. But they will have to continue dealing with Hamid Karzai. There is no one else around.
6 Comments so far
Show AllThis is Bush, Cheney and Obama's idea of free election's. They certainly do not want an intelligent leader in there because it would make them look dumber. So much for the lost american's live's. Let the politicans be next.Just like the American elections, put in who they want.
Jimmy Breslin wrote a comic novel entitled "The Gang that Couldn't Shoot Straight".
That title keeps popping up in my head as the "Af-Pak" debacle spins ever more wildly out of control.
Of course, in the Amerikan tradition, the more evidence there is that the "shooting" is wildly inaccurate, the more the war criminals in charge increase the amount and duration of the "shooting".
This latest farce, comparable to the corrupt US Supreme Court's judicial appointment of George Bush as Warlord-in-Chief in 2000, truly adds grievous insult to mortal injury for the Afghan people-- and is a cruel affront to decent, peace-seeking people worldwide.
· Yr Obd't Servant
We all know what Karzai is :-)
Well - Mr. Abdullah was once the spokesperson for the "Islamic State of Afghanistan" and maintained a kind of moderate stand compared to the Taliban - and that's all!
So - Karzai or Abdullah - wouldn't have mattered! Ban Ki-Moon anyway rushed to Kabul to legitimize things on behalf of the so-called International Community!
And really you don't want to spend another round of money in a second election given that the possibility of same frauds like massive ballot stuffing still remains :-)
Democracy has kicked the bucket in Afghanistan!
what the Americans WANT is NOT RELEVANT to the afghanis.
the moment Hillary Clinton Declared - that "The Vote is LEGITIMATE despite Abdullah's withdrawal" -
THAT was an admission - that the USA could NOT AVOID in any circumstance - that they botched their attempt to REPLACE karzai with abdullah.
and it was really Washington "coming back" to KARZAI on BENDED KNEES.
how so?
because Karzai - clever man AFGHAN that he is - made deals with the Taliban, the Tribal Warlord, the NON-pashtun "insurrectionists"...all the while the USA tried to PAINT HIM gradually as "ineffective" to PREPARE the way for a supposedly "honest election" which would have produced ABDULLAH as the NEW "washington dahling"...
OR if Abdullah LOST - would still be turned into a "power sharing" deal - waiting for the day when Karzai in the Palace could effectively be "undermined" BY washington THROUGH abdullah.
PROBLEM IS _ abdullah clearly was thinking OUTSIDE of washington's all -too -clever designs - and knew there was NO battle against karzai that he could win.
in other words - UNDER washington's PREVIOUS "FAVOR" for KARZAI -- Karzai was seen merely as "the mayor of kabul" and a WASHINGTON PUPPET....by afghans, whether Taliban or not, pashtun or not.
the MORE KARZAI made deals of HIS OWN with these different factions - in order to PROTECT HIMSELF from the OBVIOUS washington power game of laying the foundations to REPLACE HIM (as if washington thinks Karzai WOULDN'T have been watching THEM in the USA and had not been reading the USA MEDIA pronouncements undermining HIM )
the MORE KARZAI gained power and respectability with HIS own Afghans for showing "independence FROM washington".
the RESULT IS -- washington is EFFECTIVELY OUT OF THE GAME OF DECISION MAKING in afghanistan EVEN as washington has committed itself to FUND afghanistan MERELY to sustain a presence
BUT on Karzai's TERMS !!! and THAT of HIS WARLORDS and perhaps - perhaps EVEN the taliban and al qaeda
and PERHAPS - out of the picture frame for now - EVEN the Russians and Chinese and Iranians!!!
it is so laughable.
Washington is COMPLETELY at the MERCY of the afghans and the central asians. make NO MISTAKE about that!
think :
Washington - through Hillary is trying to get "BACK" with karzai - AFTER over a YEAR of openly trying to undermine karzai because they calculated he was "done" and that they had a "new darling" .
ALL IT DID was SHOW KARZAI and the afghans - that the Taliban - al qaeda , and the afghans' OWN instincts and knowledge -
WAS RIGHT all along - about washington.
THAT IT CAN NOT and NEVER SHALL BE TRUSTED for it SHALL BETRAY THEM again and again and again -- as it did when it EGGED THEM ON against the soviets and then abandoned them.
washington tried , in its imperial arrogance, to "call the shots" in so many nets and spokes of the wheel -- it is NOW ending up being SHREDDED apart by the forces in Central and South Asia.
what was it that Rudyard Kipling said?
"HERE lies a man that tried to Hustle the EAST".
there you go - washington Tried to HUSTLE the EAST ...
there lies another of its RUINED attempts - and what's more - it doesn't MATTER what americans THINK or washington THINKS it can MAKE americans think.
the only thing that matters THERE in afghanistan and central asia is what the AFGHANS THINK - and what they THINK , from karzai - to abdullah - to the taliban , to al qaeda, to the warlords, to the pashtuns and nonpashtuns is:
THE USA is THE ENEMY..and CAN NEVER be trusted.
and everyone knows what history has shown>
WHEN those people in all their complexities - despite their differences - decide it is time to come to ONE common conclusion - THAT A FOREIGNER is an ENEMY and OCCUPIER ....
that enemy is going to LOSE. and his empire is going to collapse!
the more obama and mcchrystal and nato commanders try to dig themselves IN .. the WORSE it will get for them . they will be eaten ALIVE - or at least their grand armies will be....while BLEEDING the USA and NATO of finance.
oh my oh my oh my
OBAMA,HILLAR, MCCHRYSTAL and NATO REALLY are in over their heads on this one!