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Today's Top News
Relief from the Stress Tests
The stress test results are good news. It's time for taxpayer bailouts to end and for the banks to stand on their own
US Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner told the country last week that the banks are essentially OK, based on his stress tests of the country's 19 largest banks. Geithner's call may not seem quite right. After all, the bad case in the stress tests assumed that unemployment would average 8.9% for all of 2009, and we just hit that last week. But there's no reason not to take the Treasury secretary at his word.
So, we are told that the banks have the means necessary to get through the downturn. In that case, why should we spend hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars to keep these healthy institutions afloat?
As long as the banks were on their death beds there was a plausible argument that taxpayer dollars were needed to keep the financial system from collapsing. But if the banks now have a clean bill of health from the Treasury, then it's time for the banks to stop relying on taxpayer handouts.
First and foremost, this should mean the end of the Public Private Investment Partnership (PPIP) programme that was designed to clear the toxic assets from the banks' books. PPIP involved a massive subsidy to the banks since it provided enormous leverage to buyers of toxic assets, while assigning them very little risk.
The basic story was that if an investor put up a million dollars, the government would put up $13m. The investor would have the opportunity to profit on $7m of this investment (her $1m, plus $6m of the government's money), but could not lose more than $1m. The government would profit or lose on the other $7m that it put up directly.
Even assuming that there was no gaming of the PPIP (banks could pay third parties to bid up the price of their assets), this incentive structure would lead investors to bid far more for toxic assets than they would in a free market. The result would likely be that many investors would incur large losses with the taxpayers' dollars.
If the banks were hopeless zombies, perhaps there would be an argument for this sort of subsidy from taxpayers to clear the books and allow the banks to start lending again. But, if Geithner is telling us that the banks are healthy, can't we just let them sell their loans in the market like anyone else? What's the argument for special bank welfare now?
Of course the bank welfare goes well beyond PPIP. The banks have the authority to issue hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds that come with an explicit guarantee from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). This is a substantial interest rate subsidy, especially for the more risky banks. The savings from a government guarantee can easily be 4 percentage points of interest. If a bank has borrowed $30bn under this programme (which is the case with the largest banks), this amounts to a taxpayer gift of $1.2bn a year.
In addition to the FDIC guarantees, the banks also benefit from a variety of special lending facilities established by the Federal Reserve Board. These lending facilities allow banks to borrow in secret and possibly pay substantially lower interest rates to borrow the same amount in the private sector.
The Fed currently has close to $2tn in outstanding loans (a large portion of these loans are to non-financial companies) that were issued through these special facilities. If the banks are really OK, then it should be time to shut down these special channels and allow the banks to again rely on market financing.
Finally, it should be time to shut the AIG window. Many of the largest banks, including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, had bought derivatives from AIG's financial products' division. If AIG had been allowed to collapse last fall, then most of these derivatives would be essentially worthless. However, the government stepped in and decided to honour in full AIG's obligations.
This commitment from the government was very helpful to the banks. Goldman Sachs in particular did very well, pocketing $12.9bn (approximately 4.3 million S-Chip kid years) on derivatives that might have been worthless without the government's helping hand. If the banks are OK, then how about letting them bear the consequences of their bad investment decisions rather than foisting the cost of their mistakes on the rest of us.
In short, we should take the stress test results as good news. Based on what Geithner has told news, the bailouts should be over. It's time for the banks to stand on their own two feet and to get their hands out of our pockets.
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28 Comments so far
Show AllBased on what Geithner has told news, the bailouts should be over. It's time for the banks to stand on their own two feet and to get their hands out of our pockets.
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Nothing is over, Mr. Baker.
Who is going to jail?
Who the f*** is going to jail?
The jails should be filled with thousands of bankers.
The banking implosion is a criminal conspiracy that started with neighborhood lenders and ended with Wall Street Banks.
Trillions have been stolen.
Who is going to jail?
Have you heard???
Massachusetts attorney general, Martha Coakley, "has reached a $60 million settlement with investment banker Goldman Sachs for its role in the state's subprime lending problem."
CONGRATULATIONS to Martha Coakley! Well done, Maestro!
Check it out: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gOqO3_ktzzHxJZB9DL5T7tHltrNAD9843LGG1
Do you have any doubt that more States will be going after these banksters?
And how much of that 60 million was taxpayer bailout money?
These stress tests are bullshit. Many prominent economists and financial advisors have admitted so. Why not talk about the toxic CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS that sit on bank ledgers, but are not included in the tests? Wells Fargo has more than $33 TRILLION. Bank of America $22 TRILLION, and Citigroup $11 TRILLION. They are unloading these toxic credit default swaps onto taxpayers. Barney Fife er Frank claims credit default swaps are good for the economy! These banks are not too big to fail. They need to collapse, the CEOs and CFOs need to go to jail, the Board of Directors needs disbanding, and criminals like Barney Frank, Larry Summers, Robert Rubin, Phil Gramm, Tim Geithner, and others need to go to jail! End of story!
It's WAY PAST TIME to end this charade!!! Can anyone point out one single instance of any business in our country that was ever pronounced "too big to fail?"
Our history is rife with business ventures that failed for any number of reasons, many of which were "poor management practices" or "corruption of the owners." These are exactly the sins of the big banks who we're now being told are "too big to fail."
Trying to get us to believe we need to bail these banks out is nothing more than BULLSHIT that's "too big to swallow." I've moved my savings to a credit union. Funny, we never hear them even mentioned - they're all providing a wonderful service to our country, the best of which is protecting our savings!!!!
Agreed. Credit unions are great. I have belonged to one for more than twenty years.
Sioux Rose
GRACCHUS: I am aware of these toxic "assets" but haven't seen the high numbers you've posted here. What is your source of information? Do you realize that if we apply your numbers to the odds Baker just posted, we're talking hundreds of trillions of assets basically placed on the public's default sheet thanks to the Wall St-banking casino operators.
Hi Sioux Rose,
I read the article the other day and will try to dig it up (I wish I would have printed it out so I could more readily give you the precise source information). There are great articles on Counterpunch by Michael Hudson with some of these statistics(if you look through their archives, you can access them). For example, he is estimating the CDSs at $50-$62 trillion. Matt Taibi has written a great article in Rolling Stone on them http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover
Yes, the CDSs alarm me the most. This whole stress test is a smokescreen by Bernanke and Geithner who desperately are trying to sell off the CDS tranches to private buyers. As I indicated, these stress tests exclude credit default swap debt, which from what most scholars I have read and talked to sits at $50-$65 trillion.
Hi Sioux Rose, here is the article:
Mike Whitney
"Has Bernanke Pulled the Economy Back from the Brink?"
Counterpunch Weekend Edition May 8-10, 2009
I stand corrected:
JP Morgan Chase $88 trillion in derivatives
B of A $38 trillion
Citigroup $30 trillion
Wells Fargo $5 trillion
Sioux Rose
GRACCHUS: Thanks for finding the info though it's another nightmare to take in. So they will print all these trillions and use them to buy more of what Dr. Seuss called THneeds, and rape nature more and more as if these numbers really represent quotients of genuine worth. Unbelievable... because my mind (can anyone's?) cannot wrap around these numbers (someone said the entire world economy was what, about 3 trillion a year?) the best analogy I can use would be that of making a soup. It starts out with real food in it, but someone keeps adding water until what existed in the way of a nourishing soup no longer has any of the qualities of that soup, or nurturance, for that matter! Basically, the concept of money has been rendered as diluted as Grandma's chicken soup. It's like we're all balanced on thin ice now...as the winds of change begin to blow.
Sioux Rose,
I am sorry to be the bearer of another bad nightmare. We indeed, are balanced on extremely thin ice. The numbers are astronomical. When I first read about credit default swaps three years ago, I thought these numbers must be very hyperinflated. But, as I read more and more articles written by prominent scholars, the numbers were not typographical errors, but the same, and eye-poppingly alarming. The real rude awakening for this country will come (if) when the banks will be forced to reveal their real debt kept off the ledger sheets, which are the credit default swaps.
Hi Sioux. Long time reader. First time poster.
The US GDP is about 14 trillion a year and it accounts for about 25% of the world's GDP.
I've been trying to understand all this derivative nonsense and fail to see how a few banks could be allowed to have something like twice the world's GDP on their balance books. It beggars belief. It basically means that every single hour worked, paycheck spent, mortgage paid, etc etc in one year worldwide is less than what these few super banks hold as loans. It's beyond comprehension.
Declan
Sioux Rose
BRISSIE: It should be beyond LEGAL, and certainly not something rewarded by watering the desert with taxpayer seed money. This, added to the insane military budget and senseless killing of person after person, added to the lack of truly meaningful commitment to refitting the nation's infrastructure with greener energy... I mean leadership has been out partying for years as the US Titanic slowly sinks!
To Sioux Rose
Absolutely. Regulation has been such a dirty word in the US for three decades now. I live in Australia where we have very tight banking regulations. The result is that Australia's top four banks (these guys hold pretty much all of Australia's mortgages) are rated in the top twenty banks worldwide. We are heading into recession but only something like 0.5% contraction.
None of our banks have been bailed out. The main things the Rudd government (Centre-left Labor) has done is guarantee people's deposits to prevent bank runs, give people in financial hardship the right to defer (not cancel) mortgage payments for a year, and pump money into people's pockets via cash stimulus. I'm for the first two but against the latter; I don't agree with using taxpayer cash to fund consumerism. But that's another story.
Declan
Sioux Rose,
As with almost everything that comes out of the mouths of governments, derivative exposures is also a lie. Here's another link after the teaser:
"But the banks’ risky assets include derivatives – speculative bets on market changes – and derivative exposure for U.S. banks is now estimated at a breathtaking $180 trillion.2 The sum represents an impossible-to-fill black hole that is three times the gross domestic product of all the countries in the world combined."
www.webofdebt.com/articles/modest_proposal.php
Sioux Rose
GAIL: With Obama knowing these numbers and still choosing the route that basically is about as effective as sticking his middle finger into a dam about to burst, the question is why? Robbers can't hide the stolen goods for long especially in a social climate that's collapsing. How safe will conspicuous wealth be in a land with so many going without, especially when the deprivation is not based on their own wrong-doing, but rather on machinations to a system that was left in the hands of criminals, liars, murderers and thieves.
What does 2 trillion freshly printed paper bills mean in relation to a mountain of debt which reminds me of chips in a casino. The sums played with are so staggering and so removed from the ACTUAL worth of the items they were initially tied to, that the entire apparatus is more corrupted than a mind can begin to take in (due to its scope). I know some author explained these bills would be high enough to stack to the moon... he was attempting to define what trillions LOOK like.
I paid off my VERY modest property and car, and have no medical insurance. But other than any problems with health, there is nothing I want for apart from daily food, and I don't eat much. I've even purchased about 5 pounds of coffee that I have as a back-up because it would seem that imports will become precious and pricey in the not too distant future.
I wonder if the Chinese who bought US dollars understand the amount of money that's gone missing? Or ultimately never existed at all? I have never liked thinking in terms of business, dollar amounts, or things of a mundane/fiduciary nature... but there is the wish to preserve one's modest assets as a cushion into old age. Seems the very concept of security has been eviscerated with so much else. Was it Bob Dylan who sang, "When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose." That might be the best defense in times to come.
Gail,
Looks like you beat me to the punch about derivative exposure as a ratio to world GDP.
Derivatives by their very nature are derived value from something else tangible. In this regard they have no inherent value. All they are, is worthless pieces of paper based on underlying assets.
Declan
Brissie Leftie,
That is the whole point. They are worthless pieces of paper, but firms like AIG, BofA, Wells Fargo, and others are giving them value to make money. The whole thing is fraudulent and the government knows about it. Read Matt Taibi's article that I have provided above with the link. He does a great job of explaining how credit default swaps originated and work, and how the taxpayer is paying for the debts of those firms that participated in "casino capitalism."
gracchus,
Thanks for the link. I read the article a few weeks and was blown away by the figures.
It goes to the whole idea of money. And as we all know here at CD, that's all it is, an idea. Everyone accepts that money has value so therefore it has value. The bankers have pushed this useful idea (barter can only get us so far) to farce. It's pretending that something that isn't real (money) can then become something else entirely unreal (derivatives). It makes my head spin.
Finance is useful but only to provide capital for useful things like manufacturing, agriculture etc. The idea of money making more money is stunningly illogical.
Also, it is part of what Naomi Klein refers to as "shock doctrine." The acts are so outrageous and unthinkable that these criminals bank on people not believing them. Watch Klein's interview with Rachel Maddow (it is in the CD archive).
Million, Billion, Trillion, Quadrillion, Quintillion, Sextillion, Septillion, Octillion, Nonillion, Decilion, Undecillion, Duodecillion....Centillion, Googol, Googolplex.
No, not the value of the Credit Default Swaps...The number of years Greenspan and Bernanke need to spend in jail.
Credit default swaps are convenient little bombs that will be lit and thrown any time people or politicians get the idea to regulate or not pay up to the banksters, with the same old saw that if we don't give them what they want the world will collapse. This will go on for years.
Here's a real stress test to give to the banks. Switch to credit unions or at least small local banks and see how stressed out those banks really get as they collapse as a result !
"What's the argument for special bank welfare now?"
Answer:
"Frankly, they (the banks) own the place (Congress.)" Sen. Dick Durbin.
"It's time for the banks to stand on their own two feet and to get their hands out of our pockets."
Yes, and let me know how that all works out, eh?
I am not sure if the majority of those commenting realize that Mr. Baker has his "tongue firmly in cheek." He is saying to the Treasury Secretary: "You created this charade (the stress tests), now live up to them. Rather than say the banks are insolvent, you say they are healthy. So stop the bailouts."
Of course Baker knows that nothing of the sort will happen.
There is no end to the sickening BS from these thieves without guns.
They belong in jail.
Now the MSM is softening us up with news that social safety nets will be depleted by the year 2016.
Like George Carlin said in his last cable special, "The bastards will get your SS and Medicare/Medicaid too". He was right.
How is this country going to cope with the inevitable massive social unrest?
Why else do you think they have no problem with torture?