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The Great Recession
The economists were the second to last ones to figure out we’re in a recession. The last one was George Bush himself, but he doesn’t care. He’s been phoning in his job for months now anyway.
But people who were losing their jobs, people who were losing their homes, and all those who’ve seen their retirement accounts lose 40 percent of their value—they all know we’ve been in a recession for some time.
And it’s not just any recession.
This one’s a whopper. It’s likely to be the roughest recession in forty years, at least. And it’s going to last a lot longer than its predecessors.
This is what happens when the idolatry of the free market prevails over common sense, when greed skims over the lessons of 1929.
We wouldn’t be in the Great Recession today if Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin hadn’t deregulated the financial industry.
We wouldn’t be in the Great Recession today if Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson hadn’t let the housing bubble expand to the popping point.
We wouldn’t be in the Great Recession today if the Bush Administration had bailed out homeowners instead of just bankers.
But here we are, right smack in the middle of the Great Recession, and now it’s on Barack Obama’s plate.
At least he’s talking some sense. Since winning the Presidency, Obama has been upfront with the American people about the need to engage in massive deficit spending in 2009 and 2010 to rescue the economy. This is a basic Keynesian prescription, although for many it is a hard medicine to swallow, especially after the debt Bush has run up in Iraq. But swallow we must.
Obama may have to spend between $500 billion and $1 trillion to forestall double-digit unemployment. What he spends that money on is almost as vital as the aggregate amount. Fortunately, he is wisely talking about repairing our infrastructure, sharing money with state governments, and initiating a green jobs program. These expenditures will give us the most bang for the buck, and they will lay the foundation for long-term growth that is not so ruinous to our environment.
Unfortunately, his economic appointments leave a lot to be desired. He could have picked someone like Joseph Stiglitz or James Galbraith or Dean Baker to head the Treasury and the National Economic Council. All have been critics of corporate globalization. All are strong proponents of reregulating financial institutions and reflating the economy.
Instead, he chose Lawrence Summers to head the council and Timothy Geithner to be Treasury Secretary. Both are experienced at ramming free market policies down the throats of other nations. Both were disciples of Robert Rubin when he began to deregulate the financial industry as Clinton’s Treasury Secretary in the late 1990s.
Summers served as chief economist at the World Bank from 1991 to 1993, when it was foisting structural adjustment policies on developing nations. And when he moved over to Treasury, he got Stiglitz fired from the World Bank after the Nobel Prize-winner criticized such policies.
“Spread the truth—the laws of economics are like the laws of engineering,” he said while at the World Bank. “One set of laws works everywhere.” You can find this quote in Naomi Klein’s Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, a must-read. She points out how Summers ran roughshod over Russia’s parliament to impose economic shock therapy there in 1993, when he had moved over to Treasury.
“The momentum for Russian reform must be reinvigorated and
intensified,” Summers said, after the parliament had refused to go
along. Shortly after that comment, the International Monetary Fund
threatened to withhold a $1.5 billion loan. So Boris Yeltsin dissolved
and attacked parliament, abolished the constitution, and bowed to the
IMF’s and Summers’s demands. Summers kept the heat on, demanding that
“privatization, stabilization, and liberalization” must all be
completed post-haste, Klein reports.
The results were catastrophic. “Russia’s ‘economic reforms’ can claim
credit for the impoverishment of seventy-two million people in only
eight years,” Klein writes.
Summers also helped knock down Glass-Steagall, the wall erected in the New Deal to keep commercial banks and investment houses separate.
Then as Treasury Secretary, Summers approved the deregulation of the financial industry even further. He and Clinton signed off on the Commodity Futures Modernization Act that removed oversight from the credit default swaps and derivatives trading that have so imperiled our economy.
Summers was Rubin’s disciple. And Timothy Geithner is Summers’s disciple.
Geithner got his start working for Kissinger and Associates, which should be a disqualification in and of itself. So, too, should be working for the IMF for Bush Jr., which Geithner did from 2001 to 2003.
In between, Geithner worked in the Treasury Department under Bush I and Clinton, focusing on international economic affairs. In the late 1990s, he was responsible for overseeing the Asian crisis.
As Klein notes, the Treasury Department “was in no rush to stop the pain.” In fact, it used the crisis in Indonesia, South Korea, and Thailand to force them to abandon policies aimed at self-sufficiency and to impose policies that would open those economies to U.S. corporations and banks. Never mind that the dictates of the Treasury Department and IMF inflicted enormous pain. “In South Korea, 300,000 workers were fired every month,” Klein writes. “In 1996, 63.7 percent of South Koreans identified as middle class; by 1999 that number was down to 38.4 percent.”
Since 2003, Geithner has been president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He testified to Congress in March that he couldn’t explain what precipitated the financial instability we’re in right now.
“What produced this is a very complicated mix of factors,” he said. “I don’t think anybody understands it yet.”
That’s either a cop-out or a confession. Maybe he should have just taken the Fifth. Because he’s also been intimately involved with the criminally negligent bank bailouts.
“His easy terms protected shareholders and executives but demanded almost nothing from the failing banks for the public,” William Greider noted in The Nation. “Worst of all, the deals did not work. They have failed to stabilize much of anything and are still putting Wall Street preservation ahead of the national interest. Where is the evidence that we can expect a different approach if Geithner is in charge? Or even that he understands the true dimensions of this crisis?”
Another disturbing appointment by Obama was Peter Orszag to head up
the Office of Management and Budget. When he was on the campaign trail,
Obama accused John McCain of planning to cut Social Security benefits.
Well, Orszag wants to do that, too.
In 2005, he co-wrote a paper called “Saving Social Security: The Diamond-Orszag Plan.” It calls for “a reduction in benefits, which would apply to all workers age 59 and younger.” The younger you are, the more you’ll get hurt.
“The reduction in benefits for a forty five-year-old average earner is less than 1 percent,” his plan says. “For a thirty-five-year-old, less than 5 percent; and for a twenty-five-year-old, less than 9 percent.”
Social Security is not in crisis. And there’s no reason to be hacking away at the safety net—especially if you’re a Democrat.
Now is the time for a new New Deal, not for ripping up the old one.
At some level, Obama appears to understand that. But his economic team—that’s another story.
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18 Comments so far
Show AllBut people who were losing their jobs, people who were losing their homes, and all those who’ve seen their retirement accounts lose 40 percent of their value—they all know we’ve been in a recession for some time.
How many of those people voted for George Wanker Bush, especially twice? And how do they feel now?
I think they are blaming all those poor people who didn't deserve to own their own homes. I think I heard them talking about how we all need to pull ourselves up by our bootstraps and not expect the government to take care of us. Oh, and don't forget those greedy unions. Silly liberals, it's all the working man's fault.
Thing is, there is a simple way to resolve this. But I doubt anyone will do anything about it: http://www.thoughts.com/RedNeckPossie/blog/a-way-to-give-power-back-to-t...
Summers must be among the stupidest people ever hailed as "brilliant" in the history of the human race -- "the laws of economics are like the laws of engineering"?!? That is George Bush stupid, Homer Simpson stupid, Forrest Gump stupid. Economics is a social science (could be labeled "Production and Consumption in Human Society"), dependent on a large number of assumptions about the importance of production, human motivation, cognitive operations, societal development, the impact of technological innovations on motivation and cognitive and societal development, and many others. And then there are the complications of short-term vs. long-term and local focus vs. global considerations, dwindling resources, environmental degradation, war and international law issues and trends as well as power struggles, etc... Social science theories, including those of economics, cannot be properly tested by experiment and remain mostly speculation. The practice of economics usually amounts to a very rough from of attempted social engineering (as it clearly did in Russia) by a dominant group over a weaker group to achieve the immediate goals of the dominant group over the short term, with the economic theories serving to enable the plunder by providing justifications for the actions that are designed to weaken the resistance of the members of the weaker groups (victims).
Engineering is based on the application of mathematics and the principles of the hard sciences (developed and perfected through numerous repeatable scientific experiments in which virtually all important independent variables are controlled) for utilitarian purposes.
And who can ignore that Summers repeatedly demonstrated his stupidity through his shenanigans in Russia and his calls for deregulation in the US. The appointment of Summers should alert most progressives to the reality that the US government economic policy under Obama will remain upside-down backasswards.
Sioux Rose
KIVALS: The way the bought-media works is it can turn anyone into an overnight genius-sensation by merely offering them enough spotlight. Look at Ann Coulter or Rush Limbaugh or too many columnists at the Washington Post or New York Times. Summers is obviously a high paid call boy for the bankers' club, and they have financed his reputation because he will schill for their interests. It is DEEPLY troubling given the evidence of the Asian recovery process, along with that of Russia, added to what Summers-backing the deregulation of Steagall-Glass has done to OUR economy, to put these same people back into positions to do more DAMAGE. So for any who try to say Obama is picking his teams based on EXPERIENCE, the more pertinent question is experience doing what, and leading to which outcomes?
Good point Sioux Rose. We should always be skeptical of the glowing reputations of those who serve money and power.
Matthew does a fine job here of laying out what I guess really is the obvious: change will come slowly in the US, the leader of the capitalist world where greed always comes first. Of course I'm an optimist.
"Summers is obviously a high paid call boy . . . "
Summers is a liar for hire.
"Look at Ann Coulter or Rush Limbaugh..."
Do you mean Man Coltface and Drug Limburger? Please, don't make us look at them!
>>How many of those people voted for George Wanker Bush, especially twice? And how do they feel now?
Quite frankly I expect that the same people who voted GW BUSH twice are blaming it all on "The Liberals" and would vote GW Bush a third time if they could.
A way to solve some of our financail woes: http://www.thoughts.com/index.php?_action=blog_view&id=211792&type=1
"great recession"! what a joke. we are in a breakdown process, the end term of which will make the chaos of places like iraq seem like a holiday. and this stage is not far away. our only hope is a broad movement which will prevent the rise of a corporatist solution, i.e., fascism, and bring control of the means of production into the hands of the society at large.
"he is wisely talking about repairing our infrastructure, sharing money with state governments, and initiating a green jobs program."
Clinton/Gore played that trick on us back in the 1990s and look what happened. There will be no environmental improvements until we suck all the oil dry.
As for Obama's disturbing picks, try looking at his voting record during his senate tenure and prove to me that he's any different from Dubya.
Obama is little more than an articulate George Bush, issuing the daily platitude.
-- ekaton aka d.k.shaw
You are absolutely correct, sir. Once all the oil is gone, so goes this horrible planet grinder called 'civilization' and many of us along with it. At least for the earth, that will be a great environmental improvement.
Obama or any of his ilk can do nothing to disturb nor shock me. When you look at the premises that support this whole thing you understand that, once 'Joe Six-Pack' is starving, scared and fearful, it will be too late to fix anything.
The so-called developing world has been our canary in a cage. We've sat back and watched the CIA, IMF and USA supported local dictators as they starved, tortured, raped, murdered and completely devastated their landbases and people in their charge. We did nothing as long as good ol' Unca Sam kept the goodies coming.
When all of the repercussions of this finally arrives at Joe Six-Pack's door, nothing can nor will be done for him. Just as our compatriots who's 'resources' the US government paid good money to have stolen by proxy, who's lands have been destroyed in order to give us tomatoes in winter, and whose blood the US government has spilled to defend the right of corporate pillaging, so too will we fall.
"Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will." -- Frederick Douglass
There is a reason why pure capitalism has never existed. Capitalism is very volatile. Everytime strict controls have been taken off of capitalism, it blows up; always has, always will.
Economists = Mammon's lawyers.
Recession in deed! Depression, in reality. Tonight's 60 Minutes spelled it out for J.Q.P.: events like Enron brought us, gambling like the markets brought us, oil futures which made millions for many of the big guys we have been bailing out! Capitalism does not work as touted; we need, the country needs, to nationalize such as oil, health care, transportation, infrastructure, education K through graduate school, medicine, engineering etc. Doctors, must not start practices as indebted paupers, teachers need to be skillfully trained to be skilled, and course work and content must be made broad and exciting. All good elements should join to help take all people to the world we can envision, one which belongs to all people on earth.