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Will Energy Efficiency Stimulus Distract America from the Real Task at Hand?
The Efficiency Trap will be easy to fall into--it is politically expedient and it lies at the intersection of energy and economic issues that propelled voters to pull the lever for Barack Obama in the first place.
An efficiency stimulus plan seems at first glance to be an unadulterated good: it puts Americans to work, saves energy and money, and cuts greenhouse gas emissions, all with investments that should pay for themselves. But there are reasons to be nervous about the overwhelming focus on energy efficiency by green leaders and Obama's top energy and climate advisors. This narrow focus threatens to distract from the critical work ahead: overcoming the technology gap that exists between the current state (and cost) of today's clean energy technologies and fossil fuels.
An efficiency program will not create the new industries that the American economy needs to increase employment and productivity in the long term. An efficiency program will not create new exports that will bring global capital in to the American economy. And, equally as important as short term stimulus, America needs to have a plan to achieve those objectives as quickly as possible as well.
Obama's primary focus must be on making clean energy cheap -- what Google calls RE<C, renewable energy cheaper than coal -- not on reducing energy consumption.
Global energy demand will triple by 2050 as the world population
grows to nine billion humans. This means that even if the whole world
heads toward European levels of efficiency, with those in the
developing world increasing their emissions as they develop and America
achieving efficiency gains the same level as those in the EU, then by
2050 we end up with 9 billion people each emitting 10 tons of carbon a
year, or 90 billion tons of annual carbon dioxide emissions. Clearly,
efficiency can only play a limited role in a prosperous and equitable
clean energy future.
The central challenge of any pursuit of a new global clean energy economy is bringing nascent clean energy technologies into the market as quickly as possible. Bringing these technologies through the "valley of death" that faces all new products and then scaling them up to capture a significant market share in the global energy sector is the true energy challenge of our era. Commercializing technologies is an incredibly intensive process, and if we want to speed up their success rates, it is essential that the Obama administration design a public investment framework that helps support that process for critical breakthrough energy technologies. And he must start today, since these energy innovation efforts will take time.
These two reasons--economy and energy--aren't in themselves reasons to be wary of an efficiency stimulus program. But a large-scale efficiency program might have both political and fiscal ramifications that hamper the Obama administration's ability to tackle these two crucial challenges at once.
The fiscal ramifications are pretty cut and dry--there is only so much money that Obama will be able to spend on economic revitalization and the more he allocates for short-term stimulus, the less he will be able to spend on maintaining the long term competitiveness of the American economy. A smart option would be to ensure that short term stimulus measures can provide a bridge to sustained growth, but efficiency does not meet this condition.
The political ramifications are a bit more subtle. The next four years look like they will be the toughest economic times America has seen since the Great Depression. It is entirely possible that the Obama administration will have to focus on the economy and give up other pieces of his platform like entitlement reform or climate change and energy investment. Efficiency stimulus now could give Obama political cover to withdraw from bolder energy-related promises later if it appears he will not be able to enact that part of his agenda. He will be able to point at his efficiency programs as addressing the energy challenge in order to dodge those sorts of accusations while not actually having done even the barest minimum necessary to spur innovation.
Herein lies the Efficiency Trap--if Barack Obama spends the next few years focusing on energy efficiency without also making the vital investments in energy technology innovation and enabling infrastructure that are truly necessary, then what will America have to show for it? A few jobs, yes, perhaps an increase in consumer spending, and an almost insignificant reduction in global carbon emissions. We will not have created new industry, we will not be on track to truly revitalize the economy, and we will not have begun the task of developing technologies that could allow 9 billion humans to live decent lives while also sustaining America's economic growth for decades to come. The Efficiency Trap will be easy to fall into--after all, it is politically expedient and it lies at the intersection of energy and economic issues that propelled voters to pull the lever for Barack Obama in the first place.
Obama has not yet fallen into this trap. But it is critical to look ahead to possible barriers that stand in the way of a clean energy economy. Much of what Obama does in the next four years will revolve around the economic recession and his ability to think strategically about how to work with, through and around it. An efficiency program works great as a short term stimulus plan. However, it does little to address the technology gap needed for a clean energy transition, and it does little to drive the innovation that will propel long term economic growth well into the 21st century. If Obama is truly clear eyed about the challenges he faces, then he already knows that an efficiency program is far less than the full measure of devotion he must have to overcoming America's interlinking energy, economic and climate challenges.
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14 Comments so far
Show AllA paragraph explaining how one gets and what is energy efficiency would work well in the article, rather than having to google to find/read it elsewhere. One suggestion to authors:in the areas of economics, this article, some medical and science for general readers, it would be a good thing to use less jargon. It is very hard for someone who is deep into a field to write for the general reader, but it would be a good idea. It certainly would increase the number of people reading the material.
Yes.
Everybody keeps insisting that it wasn't really the new deal that brought us back from the great depression, but the war. However it is well-accepted, or at least was before Milton Friedman, that military expenditures have the worst multiplier effect of any government expenditures. However, when the world was at war and we were brought into it by something like Pearl Harbor every American was quite happy to have the government spend what it took to win, no matter the debt that might be racked up. So government spending on the war effort dwarfed previous spending on new deal initiatives, because there was quite a bit of opposition to it (by the right of the day of course).
Now, imagine what could happen if that kind of war-time investment were made in a non-war-time era on an infrastructure that would return so many times over.
In my mind it is the single approach that will bring us out of the approaching depression, and pay back so many times over in so many ways.
But it will take nothing short of a world-war-type investment and effort.
A renewable energy cheaper than coal could be readily obtained by legalizing cannabis and encouraging homeowners to grow it. Anything else may be nothing more than a pipe dream.
Corn can produce around 25 gallons of ethanol per acre. Hemp can produce around 250 gallons of ethanol per acre, can be used for textiles and rope, the seeds can be used to produce additional gallons of oil for food use or for biofuel, and on and on. So its only logical that hemp should remain illegal. Personally, I like the flowers. (Yes I know that cannibis is hemp having gone through many iterations of selective breeding, and that one cannot "get high" on hemp. If only the powers that be would admit that.)
-- ekaton aka d.k.shaw
"Obama's primary focus must be on making clean energy cheap" - If we build hundreds of thousands of windmills from Dakota to Texas and along the coasts, with transmission lines, we're all set. Why don't we just do it.
Too much doom and gloom here. The author should visit Kerela, India and learn something about making wise use of resources even with a very dense population.
Thank you! Thank you! Somebody finally gets it!
The costs of energy efficiency, renewable energy and inhibiting global warming are all reducible, and probably will drop, -
- IF -
- IF the Obama Administration goes into the problem with eyes open, and IF they come up with even a reasonable amount of funding. I say IF because Washington sometimes has gum on its shoe and can't walk fast, or move at all.
My unstudied research targets would be, in this order,
1. ecologically low-impact geoengineering,
2. better non-automotive transit,
3. energy-intensive industrial processes,
4. offshore wind energy improvements,
5. electricity storage on a massive scale,
6. nonphotovoltaic solar electricity,
7. production of biodiesel from algae,
8. and home/office heating.
Go after specific products that can be manufactured, or specific improvements with value.
Sioux Rose
How about if the banks just given those chunks of cash are forced (before they get the next "installment") to invest in these greener technologies; and how about if billionaires are told they EITHER enter a higher tax bracket or VOLUNTARILY put a % of their income into these initiatives. Hey, our political version of a mafia keeps giving us (The public) offers we can't refuse... why not the reverse? (Dream on, Sioux.)
Greenwashed investments? No guarantees that the actual investments will have anything green about them.
I'm a big supporter of renewable energy programs, but I suspect that Mr. Zemel is underestimating both the potential for energy efficiency in this very wasteful country and the economic impact of addressing it. For example, consider how much energy is seeping from homes, office buildings, and factories in this country and how many newly trained specialists would be required to apply state-of-the art measures to end that waste. It's fine to build better faucets, but let's also fix our leaky drains.
I urge Zemel and other people here to visit the website of the Rocky Mountain Institute (rmi.org), long the go-to organization on questions relating to efficiency. It can be an eye-opener.
Many of us live the most extravagant lifestyle ever recorded. (there are more overweight people in the world than underfed/hungry folks) We need to make painful choices at global, national and personal levels. Those advocating imagined technological solutions are taking us on an enormously risky path. The science fiction true believers reminds me of those who until recently believed absolutely in an unfettered free market. The chickens have come home to roost on unbridled casino capitalism. The same is now happening with regards to climate change and other environmental crises. The "technological solution" is unfortunately probably a delusion and form of avoidance. By all means, let's focus on efficiency for the near...and the long term.
i think for many years now -- it has been fairly well-known that Americans in general spend MORE on trying to LOSE weight (obviously due to a surfeit of "choices" of weight gaining food) -- per year than ENTIRE regions in the world such as parts of africa spend or CAN spend to actually EAT to SURVIVE....
while americans , generally, worry about how they LOOK because they ate too much - many times more in population throughout the world worry about where, how, and IF they can get the next meal....
americans spend on their "individuality" , going to the gym, taking the latest classes for "self-realization", spending on health food, to gain a semblance of the "sunburned" look, a bit of the "emaciated look" they see in modeling ramps...while
actually EMACIATED PEOPLE elsewhere -- get SUNBURNED walking miles on bare feet to find WATER......and THEN americans wonder if US government and institutional "foreign AID is WORTH the money spent on others who hate us and who don't deserve it....just LOOK AT THEM and their filthy habits!!!...." -- while the us government and institutions largely send "AID" with STRINGS ATTACHED upon WHOEVER is in government control to ENSURE that they "open up their economies" to the REAL "aid" from america -- which is
AID TO THE CORPORATIONS......to "manage" famine, "scarcity" etc....AT A NICE PROFIT.......
just ask the US pharmaceuticals, and the US GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIZED agribusiness industry.......not to mention the ATTACHED OTHER industries such as "distribution" industry, FINANCE industry, SHIPPING industry, private "security" industry.....
isn't it SUCH a WONDERFUL way of MAKING A BUCK..for "humanitarian reasons?"
it's the AMERICAN WAY , u know.
just ask the Native Indians -- 200 hundred years ago...uh...they're gone.........my bad!
Common Dreams must have taken a big bribe from the elite establishment to post these right wing rant articles. Zemel apparently believes the extreme right gutter koolaid that economic growth at all cost is a legitimate priority. Zemel wants to create ever higher tech energy conversion and feed an ever-growing energy demand. He doesn't say it but he may as well claim the USA's military domination of the planet is his ultimate goal because his approach supports that goal more strongly than any other approach whether he knows it or not. Consumption is a very easy sell to people who are kept totally in the dark, that is, 99% of the US population over the past 50 years. But more recently, many more of us have learned that the elites' energy and economics propaganda are gargantuan lies. We now know that we do not need economic growth. So the koolaid is now sour. The economy must submit to the enlightened will of the people. What makes the people happy may or may not grow the economy. The people are not happy with perpetual growth in energy consumption, material consumption, or anything in the economic realm. Running the rat wheel ever faster doesn't cut it any longer. Consuming more doesn't cut it any longer. We have to consume less. Try 1000 lb, 20 hp 50 mph, 150 mpg vehicles for personal transport, using diesel internal combustion, an ancient technology. And equivalent value in the other sectors. Kaka on the elite establishment. We don't need the establishment lies, Common Dreams, so stop posting them, please.
Zemel makes two false assumptions, in my opinion. The lesser is the assumption that because Obama will take office in a time of economic crisis, he will only be able to do a limited number of things. But he doesn't need to "focus" on a small number of programs--this is what he has advisors and agency heads for. He need not study up on the merits of one clean energy technology versus another--he need only assemble his team working on that, listen to their presentations and arguments, choose a course that seems wisest, and say "go do it." And look into results at some later date. As for limited funds, the solution to economic crisis is usually assumed to involve government spending, so he need only choose to direct the monies toward this use.
The more important false (though annoyingly common) assumption is that we will have to be ready for 9 billion people in 2050, and rising levels of consumption in at least the Third World (which will supply virtually all of the increased population). This is based on current trends. But it has been estimated that we are currently exceeding sustainable resource use by 23%. Where will the raw materials for the additional 2 1/2 billion come from? The water, for drinking and sanitation, and everything else--maybe diverted from the irrigation needed to feed those people? How about the land to house them--again, taken from the agricultural land needed to feed them? And then there is the reality that we have achieved the current excessive population only via the subsidy provided by cheap fossil fuels, the distilled and concentrated energy from millions of prehistoric years. Once that's gone, how can we produce the fertilizer to produce crops beyond the size of today's (which are no longer increasing)? And how can we possibly feed the thirty billion people we'll have in 2090, or the trillions we'll have in another two hundred years if you assume that current trends are immutable? Obviously population will have to stop growing some time. Since the evidence is that we are already beyond the carrying capacity of the Earth, I think we need to assume that it will happen SOON.
None of this is an argument that we should NOT invest public monies in renewable energy as well as efficiency and conservation--we absolutely MUST. And we can easily find the money we need, no matter the current state of the economy, if we are at last willing to face directly the gargantuan vampire in the room: the military budget. Since it's more than half of the total budget, and equal to what the rest of the world COMBINED spends on military matters, obviously there is plenty there. It's true that hundreds, possibly even thousands of rich people would lose money if we divert some of this toward constructive uses--but I would argue that this is a small price to pay to avert the deaths of billions, the likely outcome if we cruise along with business as usual.