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After Four Decades, Finally: The Beginning of the End
But there is another sense in which this election will likely turn out to be historic. For nearly four decades this country has been moving to the right. Unfortunately we must include the Clinton years in this right-wing trajectory: with such major regressive structural changes as welfare reform, the World Trade Organization, and NAFTA, the Clinton administration continued the country's rightward drift on economic if not social issues. In other words, it continued using the government to make rules that would redistribute income, wealth, and power towards the upper classes. (These are generally described somewhat inaccurately as "free-market" or "free-trade" policies.)
The right's ascendance began with the election of Richard Nixon in 1968, who rode into office on a backlash against the social movements of the 1960s, especially the civil rights and anti-war movements. Nixon's infamous "Southern Strategy" deployed a coded racist appeal that would help make the South Republican and ensure that no Democratic presidential candidate would get a majority of white voters (they didn't from 1968-2004).
Reagan continued this strategy but also initiated a counter-revolution on the economic front, decimating organized labor and cutting taxes for rich. It was an economic failure by any objective measure but it succeeded in drastically changing the ideological climate on economic issues. By the end of the Reagan (and George H.W. Bush) administrations in 1993, the typical Democratic member of Congress was far to the right of Richard Nixon on most economic policy.
The impact of this economic counter-revolution on the living standards of the majority of Americans can hardly be over-emphasized. Prior to the Reagan years, the United States was on its way to becoming more like Europe, with a welfare state and social safety net that would allow the vast majority of its citizens to enjoy the benefits of a developed, high-income economy. When Medicare and Medicaid were enacted in 1965, it was widely believed that insuring the elderly and the poor, respectively, were just the first steps toward universal health insurance.
The assault that began with Ronald Reagan's firing of 12,000 striking air traffic controllers in 1981 set the nation on a very different path. By the time George W. Bush took over, he was even able to go after Social Security, the bedrock New Deal anti-poverty program whose beneficiaries include about one-sixth of the population. Bush lost that battle to a grass-roots groundswell of opposition. But the fact that he could even launch such a privatization effort, where Ronald Reagan would not even dare to tread, showed how far America had fallen from the economics, social norms, and basic ethical principles that prior generations had taken for granted.
The end result of America's long right-wing experiment was perhaps the most massive redistribution of income and wealth in our history. Over the last 35 years, there has been virtually no increase in real wages for the majority of the labor force. At the same time the top 1 percent of households (with earnings of more than $1.2 million) saw their real incomes more than triple. A new "gilded age" of gross class inequalities became the norm; workers without a college degree (still more than 70 percent of the labor force) could no longer have the same expectations of landing a job that would allow them to afford a home and a family.
Now that long journey into darkness has finally come to an end. My own view is that the 2006 Congressional elections may have been the turning point. It was then that Democrats regained the Congress on the basis of a more populist appeal by some of their candidates, and a mass revulsion with the war in Iraq. Even if McCain had won the presidency in yesterday's election, he would have faced great obstacles in pursuing a right-wing agenda, but he could have taken a lot of people to their graves trying. His best bet for saving the Republican party from a long walk through the political wilderness would have been the one threatened by Vice President Dick Cheney and other fellow neoconservatives: more war, most likely beginning with a military strike against Iran. This is how they retained the Congress in 2002, when the economy was also bleeding jobs after the bursting of the stock market bubble and the consequent recession of 2001. From August 2002 until the November election, the build-up for the Iraq war pushed all of the voters' most important concerns out of the news. It worked.
This time they couldn't pull it off, and Obama's election has saved us from a repeat of these kinds of crimes. One of the most interesting things about this election is that it also showed how the Democrats could have avoided most of this long nightmare of right-wing rule by simply appealing to the class interests of the key swing demographic, which is white working class voters. Like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, their way back to Kansas was right in front of them all this time. Non-college-educated whites with household income between $30,000-$50,000 voted for George W. Bush by a margin of 24 percentage points; for those with income between $50,000-$75,000 it was 41 percentage points (70-29). Obama did not make the kind of appeal that would really clinch this demographic, which includes many "Reagan Democrats;" but Wall Street did it for him. The financial crisis that exploded in mid-September sealed the outcome of this election. The Republicans' fake populist appeal to these swing voters, painting the Democrats as an "elite" who did not respect their culture or religion, rang hollow in the face of millions of mortgage foreclosures, job losses, collapsing retirement savings, and a shrinking economy. The politics of deploying "weapons of mass distraction," including the so-called "war on terror," had finally run its course.
But foreign policy will remain the Democrats' Achilles' heel for some time to come. This is also a mostly self-inflicted handicap. The most important Democratic leaders promote the same assumptions about foreign policy as the Republicans: that terrorism is practically the most important threat facing our country; that extremism and anti-U.S. sentiment in the world has nothing to do with our foreign policy; that America is really defending itself, or promoting "democracy" when it invades other countries or de-stabilizes foreign governments. If this is really the state of the world, then there is some logic to voting Republican. Why not vote for the guy who is willing protect us by any means necessary from these unavoidable, mortal dangers?
And someone who won't be constrained by a political base that includes peace activists and others who might shrink from the violence necessary to defend ourselves? Of course there are millions of Democratic party activists and primary voters who see right through the charade, and vote Democratic with the hope that the jingoistic campaign rhetoric is just for show. But unfortunately there are a lot of voters who believe the hype from both parties, which is often reinforced in the media. Thus, on the eve of this election, John McCain still had a 14 percentage point edge over Barack Obama on "national security," while trailing on almost every other issue. (Interestingly, the people of Washington DC and New York City, the prior victims and most at-risk of any future terrorist attack, are practically deaf to the right's fear-mongering --McCain lost DC by 93-7 %; while the most receptive audiences live in places like Wyoming and Oklahoma where they are more likely to be hit by a meteor from outer space than to get hurt by a foreign terrorist. This is another indicator of how far removed the politics of "national security" are from any real threats.)
This time none of that stuff mattered, because the economy was going down the drain. However, until the Democrats present a more reality-based program on foreign policy, they will still be vulnerable to external events and the hyping of foreign threats, even if they are ridiculously exaggerated, of our own making, or altogether imaginary.
For now, though, the domestic economy will occupy center stage as the new government faces the worst recession in decades, and one that is just beginning -- the housing bubble that caused this recession is only about 60 percent deflated. The people have voted for change, including expanded health care coverage and -- as they did in 2006 -- an end to the Iraq war. How much change we will actually see will depend more than anything on how much pressure there is from below.
But there is plenty to celebrate in addition to the election of our first African-American president. Forty years is a long time for a country to be on the wrong track, and even worse for one that has so much influence on the rest of the world. We now have an opportunity to resume the economic and social progress that was considered almost inevitable a few decades ago, and to address some of the most urgent environmental problems -- most importantly climate change -- which have only recently become widely recognized. Who knows, we might even stop invading other countries and move towards becoming a law-abiding member of the international community. Progress is now at least possible, although it will still be an uphill fight. As Obama himself said in his acceptance speech, "This victory alone is not the change we seek. It is only the chance for us to make that change."
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9 Comments so far
Show AllMark's comments are hopeful.
Reality: The same capitalist ologarchy that put the Clintons, then George, Jr. in power paid for Obama's candidacy.
Let's see if he will turn on his masters.
Bear in mind that when he won the Dem candidacy, he brought Clinton's and Bush's corporate handlers aboard as advisers. He has the same advisers that created the human misery of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Palestine in the 80's & 90's.
I saw so much hope in the faces of people watching O's victory speech in an ER room.
May my cynicism be unfounded and their hopes nourished.
But I could be wrong !
Yep, you're wrong, on several counts.
First, ordinary Joe Six Pack's like me financed Obama by contributing what we could out of our monthly income for the last 21 months. Internet fund raising is part of what helped Obama win.
And your cynicism is unfounded. The longer you nurture it, the stronger it will get. You will not only poison yourself, but you will poison others as well. However, it will be more difficult for you to bring us down now. Because we have seen what America can do.
As a nation we are confronted with many enormous problems. But what good is cynicism? It cannot help. Much of the nation feels reborn today and ready to face these problems head on. You can be positive and contribute to making our country a better place, or you can sit and gripe. We would love to have you join us rebuild America. Will you help? You seem very intelligent. I suspect you have much knowledge and many abilities that are very much needed.
Yes YOU can!
Rebuild America? You had better look very closely at what you want to rebuild!
I've read reams of column inches on the economy and the imperial occupation of client states (generally referred to as "wars") vis a vis the election over these past many month. All well and good.
But any chance someone can now ask the president-elect about restoring the U.S. Constitution and rule of law? It seems he neglected to bring it up during the campaign.
Mark Weisbrot makes an insightful comment that foreign policy and national security issues are "the Democrats' Achilles heel..... a mostly self-inflicted handicap" dating back to LBJ's decision to go to war in Vietnam.
Sending US troops into Indochina was a naked betrayal of Johnson's own 1964 stump speech promises that he would not send "American boys off to fight and die in an Asian war." It created a cleavage that quickly split the Democratic party base, enabling Tricky Dick (that self-proclaimed Quaker man of peace and virulent, superpatriotic anti-Communist) to deploy the GOP's "Southern Strategy" in the pivotal presidential election of 1968 with devastating, tragic long term effect. Like Weisbrot says, for the next forty years the Dems limped and wandered through the political wilderness courtesy of this self-inflicted wound.
The deep partisan divisions of today do trace directly back to the Lyndon Johnson era. As LBJ candidly predicted, enacting the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts did destroy the Democratic Party as a political force in Dixie for a generation. But as he learned to his great sorrow, "Johnson's war" in Vietnam also became a bloody, viciously divisive albatross - a partisan wedge issue gift to the Republican Party that proved to be a gift that just kept on giving.
From the Democratic Party's perspective, passage of 1960's federal civil rights legislation ending Jim Crow segregation was a win/lose proposition. Vietnam was strictly lose/lose. From the Republican Party's perspective, it was win/win all around.
What is intriguing about Barack Obama's successful and historic presidential campaign is how he proclaimed from the outset it was time to simply transcend these old, bitter divisions about race and war, turn the page and move on.
Obama stayed steadfast on message (on THIS generational message ) despite dogged Republican efforts to inject race and raw jingoism into the 2008 election - from Reverend Wright to Bill Ayers, from Joe the Plumber cracking sly joke reference to Sammy Davis Jr., and Sarah Palin making red meat rhetorical appeals for "real" flag waving Americans to stand up and be counted. Adamantly refusing to take the bait, Barack always bobbed and weaved and danced away, countering back with his themes of hope, tolerance and change.
This tactic/strategy worked, as evidenced by yesterday's election returns.
What remains to be seen however is whether the Democratic Party, as an institution, can transcend race, and the waging of war abroad, as perpetually recurring issues which remain perpetually divisive (and therefore exploitable by demagogues lurking in plain view within the right wing ranks of the loyal GOP opposition).
By all means, let us transcend racism and beat our swords into plowshares, recognizing that America's "long journey into darkness has finally come to an end."
But after wandering about aimlessly for forty years - at catastrophic economic and social cost to the nation and to the world - I suspect we cannot expect those wounds to heal themselves just through the passage of time, pretending all has been transcended if not forgotten, and implicitly forgiven.
But then again, maybe yes we can.
Bill from Saginaw
Bill
I would tell you it was those selfsame "real" flag waving Americans" that elected Barack Obama. They rejected the base appeal by Republicans.
"What remains to be seen however is whether the Democratic Party, as an institution, can transcend race, and the waging of war abroad, as perpetually recurring issues which remain perpetually divisive (and therefore exploitable by demagogues lurking in plain view within the right wing ranks of the loyal GOP opposition)"
There are demagogues lurking in plain view on both sides. My greatest worry is that we won't be able to transend the chance victory has given us.
This article led me to an interesting thoughts, imagining how different things could have easily turned out if Hillary Clinton did not lose to Obama in the primaries; i.e. as far as race and ethnicity is concerned. i know, i know, everyone loved Bill Clinton to death. Some even labeled him the "first black president." i, however, have always found him to be opportunistically racist, if not a racist in the most general use of the term. there have been many people associated with the Clintons, who have reported profound bigotry among them, and while i can't say that i believe it is all true (most of it was written and/or reported by ultra-conservative R-W Christian fundamentalists, who wouldn't want the truth if it meant they were given personal permission by God to commit adultery with the same sex, support their daughter's abortion, and finally admit that the earth is a whole lot older than a 10,000 years without eternal repercussion--or in the least, just be friendly and forgiving of those who do), i can't say that i don't doubt it or that i wouldn't be surprised if it were true. but really--who is shocked about anything politicians do nowadays? oh, another republican was busted in a sex scandal with prostitutes (sorry: escorts)? big deal. Hillary Clinton was busted in a compromising position with Jessie Jackson, cigar in HER hand? yeah, whatever.
But anyway. . .my point is that i definitely agree with author Mike Weisbrot here. It's been a long 4 decades, and Bill Clinton (and Hillary, too, for that matter) hasn't changed much of anything for the people at the bottom. This economic crisis we're in is perfect proof of that. Deregulation could have ended then. There were signs of its flaws all along, after all, and its impending effects of doom have been predicted since Reagan, the clueless, careless, corporate-lapdog, decided to ruin the country in the name of. . .free (?) trade.
What a lot of the RWs like to point out is that Obama wants to re-distribute wealth in order to give the poor things they haven't earned and thus don't deserve. However, what they fail to see is that the American poor don't want things they haven't earned. They want the things that were stolen from them and given to the rich. For example, a decent working wage. Because we all know that if we raise the minimum wage, companies will just increase their prices and we'll be right where we started. This, to me, is the tricky part. Allowing companies to profit and at the same time, for employees to make a decent paycheck. They've been fattened and spoiled by dereg. and corporate politicians going from pocket to pocket, playing musical puppet for corporate payoffs.
Is it even possible to level the field--to create fairness again out of the rampant corruption, not only in politics but in every financial sector in the country, in business altogether? i don't know. maybe we should just junk the whole system and start over again. This time, though, we'll make sure we have a few morsels of decency, honesty, morality, etc. etc. blah blah--really?: what do we know about these things?
nevermind about all that stuff. this is america. nothing is going to change so much that we'll really be able to call it fair or free or any of those other terms they sell us their policies labeled with.
but hey: at least we have those notions in our minds now. yeah, you're right alright, Mike: it has been a long 4 decades, Mike. What now, Mike? What now? More poetry from Obama, and more action? i know he keeps going: "Yes, we can. . .Yes, we can." But just because someone CAN, it doesn't mean that they WILL, which is actually the only thing that matters in the end. In another 4 decades, people won't be talking about how we COULD have done this or COULD have done that. They'll be going: "THEY DIDN'T DO JACK-S#*T!"
Interesting article. I am hopeful and tend towards idealism, but let's not count our chickens before they've hatched. The radical right in the US is by no means done with their efforts to turn the US into a nazi-esque theocracy. It would be a huge mistake to underestimate them. This election should mark the beginning of their delegitimization, which means that vigilance and exposure of the abrahamofascists are the orders of the day.
Planetary sustainability should be our goal. Whole new economies could grow up around the notion of sustainable industry with technology and manufacturing. The commercial/consumer/military glut must also be put to rest...