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| NOVEMBER 18, 1998 11:36 AM FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: Campaign for America's Future Erik Cole at (202) 955-5665 |
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| While Social Security Helped Democrats in '98 Election, Poll Shows Americans Dissatisfied with Debate About "Saving" Social Security | ||||
| WASHINGTON - November 17 - Social
Security was one of the top issues on the minds of voters as they went to the polls on
November 3rd. But a new poll
conducted in the days immediately after the 1998 Congressional election demonstrates that,
while the issue helped the Democrats in their good showing, over 85 percent of all voters
thought that the candidates running for Congress did not do a good job of
explaining to the public the changes they have in mind for "saving" Social
Security. The nationwide poll, conducted by International Communications Research (ICR) for the Institute for America's Future, found that strong majorities want Congress and the President to "save Social Security," but, the poll had bad news for politicians and lobbyists whose idea of "saving Social Security" involves privatization. By a margin of almost three to one, Americans rejected proposals to create private accounts by diverting Social Security taxes while cutting guaranteed benefits and raising the retirement age to make up for lost revenue. Only 22 percent said such a plan would save Social Security, while 63.4 percent thought it would harm the system. Women, a key voting constituency for the Democrats, are especially skeptical about this approach to Social Security reform, with only 17.5 percent saying it would save the system and 67.2 percent saying it would be harmed. The poll's findings represent a cautionary warning to the leaders of the Republican party and to the President, who have declared their intention to seek a deal to make changes in the Social Security system this year. The poll shows that while Americans are skeptical about the debate so far, the future of Social Security is very important to them. Those age groups which most frequently cited Social Security as an important issue - those in the 50 to 64 and the 64 and older age groups - are precisely those Americans who are most likely to vote in upcoming elections. "Perhaps reflecting the view that the politicians have not leveled with the public about their plans for Social Security," said Roger Hickey, co-director of the Institute for America's Future, who commissioned the opinion survey, "the poll shows that the public is in no mood to rush to make major changes to Social Security until they fully understand the implications." The poll found that 87.9 percent of Americans would prefer "to have the Congress and the President take the time to better explain the options before going forward with changes," while only 8.8 percent support "Congressional and Presidential action to address Social Security's long term solvency right away." "In light of these findings," said Hickey, "Congress would be well-advised to move slowly and deliberately to build a consensus for understandable and progressive reform. The poll results indicate a rush to drastic change could generate opposition from worried voters." This caution is especially important for Democrats. Most voters, by a margin of 44 to 27 percent, trust the Democrats over the Republicans to "save Social Security without unfairly cutting benefits or raising the retirement age." Among the youngest Americans surveyed, 18 to 34 year-olds, 50.9 percent trusted the Democrats to protect Social Security, while only 13.3 percent trusted the Republicans. Only among the 35 to 49 age group did the Republican Party come close to tying the Democrats, with 32.9 percent trusting the Republicans and 33.8 having more faith in the Democrats. Democrats should be very wary of supporting radical reforms, such as privatization schemes, that could undermine the trust the public currently gives them. The poll did show that Americans are prepared to make distinctions between complex plans. One question asked people to choose between two options: Option A would "carve out" a portion of each worker's payroll tax and divert the funds into private accounts, "while making substantial cuts in guaranteed benefits to offset the reduced income to Social Security." Option B would "add on" private accounts by allowing people to "make voluntary, tax-deductible contributions to private accounts, while their Social Security taxes go entirely to the trust fund, continuing to pay current level of guaranteed benefits to all but the highest income retirees. " Among all respondents, Option B, the "add on" proposal, was chosen by 55.3 percent, while Option A, the "carve out" proposal, was supported by only 29.6 percent. Interestingly, although the voluntary "add on" plan was supported by solid majorities over the "carve out" plan in every category of income level, age and education, support for the voluntary plan was especially strong among Republicans (at 60.2 percent) and among those earning over $50,000 per year. This should perhaps come as no surprise, since the wealthy are more able to come up with voluntary savings, it nevertheless shows perhaps one way to a compromise plan for voluntary accounts that might be supported by all income groups -- even wealthy Republicans. Such "add on" plans have been proposed by former Social Security Commissioner Robert Ball, as well as by Robert Eisner, former President of the American Economics Association. Note: On December 3, at 10 am, at the Brookings Institution, a Statement of Principles for Social Security Reform (organized by the Institute) will be released to the press by over 140 signers who are leaders of civic organizations and public policy experts. Speakers include John Sweeney, Patricia Ireland, Jesse Jackson, and Hugh Price. For more information contact Erik Cole: 202 955-5665. ------------------------------------------------------ The entire ICR report is available in pdf here - including all of the questions asked, the raw results, and the crosstab information demonstrating results by age, sex, income, age, and many other variables. Or contact Erik Cole at (202) 955-5665. The poll was conducted for the Institute for America's Future by International Communications Research (ICR). Over the period November 4 through 7, ICR made random telephone contact with 1,000 adults and asked them a set of questions concerning the election and the issue of Social Security. ### |
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