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Date: July 29, 1998 3:16 pm
Contact: Council for A Livable World
Luke Warren - 202.546.0795 ext. 127

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Another "Rush to Failure?" Rumsfeld Report on Ballistic Missile Threat Fires Up Some on Capitol Hill
WASHINGTON - July 29 - MEDIA ADVISORY

Last week's Iranian test of a medium range ballistic missile apparently adds credence to the recent report by a commission headed by former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld claiming that the U.S. might face a ballistic missile threat well before the 2010 time frame predicted by the U.S. intelligence community.  Both events have increased calls on Capitol Hill for a rapid deployment of a ballistic missile defense system.  But is this the appropriate response?

Citing the availability of ballistic missile systems and technology, and the ability of countries to conceal their weaponization programs from U.S. intelligence, the Rumsfeld commission concluded that a handful of countries, North Korea and Iran in particular, could deploy ballistic missiles within five years of a decision to do so, and that the U.S. would not know when that decision took place.

To make matter worse, Iran has just tested a 800km range ballistic missile, putting Israel well within Iran's striking distance.  Advocates of missile defense claim that these events painfully illustrate that the U.S. has no defense against such missiles.

Unfortunately for proponents of missile defense, there is no evidence that a missile defense system will work.  Since the launch of Sputnik, the U.S. has spent $108 billion on ballistic missile defense, and we have nothing to show for it.  Moreover, a GAO study and the Welch panel report, sponsored by the Department of Defense, both criticized the Administration's 3+3 plan for developing and deploying a missile defense system as "high risk" and a "rush to failure" respectively.

Additionally, pursuit of a ballistic missile defense system could threaten efforts to see the Russian Duma ratify START II.  START II would eliminate over 4,000 Russian warheads, far more than any ballistic missile defense system ever will.  There has also been some success in the realm of controlling ballistic missile technology exports, including recent success with Russia and China.

Lastly, National Missile Defense provides no defense against the most likely future attacks on U.S., which have already been demonstrated at the World Trade Center, the Oklahoma City Federal Building, and the Tokyo subway.

Ballistic missile defense is an inappropriate response to the threat of ballistic missile attack, no matter how imminent.  Better responses would be to strengthen arms control treaties, improve intelligence gathering, and engage in proactive diplomacy.  

If you need a guest for a show on this topic, please contact Luke Warren - 202.546.0795 ext. 127.

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