New Paper Finds Big Increase in Trade is Transforming Colombian-Venezuelan Relations

For Immediate Release

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Dan Beeton, 202-256-6116

New Paper Finds Big Increase in Trade is Transforming Colombian-Venezuelan Relations

“The Gains From Trade” May Include a Peace Dividend

WASHINGTON - Greatly increased commercial ties between Venezuela and Colombia are
most likely the driving force in the recent reduction of diplomatic
tensions between Venezuela and Colombia, a new paper from the Center for
Economic and Policy Research argues. The paper, "The Gains From Trade: South American Economic Integration and the Resolution of Conflict,"
demonstrates that while Colombia’s exports to Venezuela more than
doubled as a share of its total exports from 1999 to 2007, Colombian
exports to Venezuela fell from 15.6 percent to just 3.6 percent during a
period of profound diplomatic tension in 2009-2010, after Venezuela cut
off Colombian imports in response to a planned military bases sharing
arrangement with the United States.

“Peace and stability can be one of the most important gains from
increasing trade and economic integration between neighboring
countries,” said CEPR Co-Director and economist, and lead author of the
paper. Mark Weisbrot said. “This appears to be the case in the recent
thawing of relations between Venezuela and Colombia.”

The paper
shows the loss of Colombia’s exports to Venezuela in 2009-2010 after
Venezuela cut off Colombian imports: $2.3 billion in trade, or 11.2
percent of Colombia’s total exports. More importantly, the loss
comprised more than 20 percent of Colombia’s non-fuel exports.

“The tendency of cross-border commerce to provide incentives for
better and more stable diplomatic relations is undoubtedly a major
reason that South America has pursued regional economic integration in
recent years,” Weisbrot added. “This has been the growing trend since
the region rejected Washinton’s “hub-and-spoke” model of “free trade”
agreements, including the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas,”
said Weisbrot.

The losses to Colombia were concentrated in a few sectors. For
livestock and related products the loss of $632.8 million in exports to
Venezuela represented 83 percent of total exports in this sector, while
textile exports suffered a loss of $286 million or 63 percent of
Colombia’s textile exports. Replacements for these export markets were
not easily found.

Trade and diplomatic relations between Colombia and Venezuela have
warmed with the new administration of President Juan Manuel Santos, who
took office on August 7. The two nations have established a cross-border
security committee and reached agreement on the payment of some $800
million in outstanding debt owed to Colombia exporters, and the
resumption of fuel shipments from Venezuela to Colombia. Meanwhile, the
Colombian Supreme Court ruled that the U.S.-Colombia Defense
Co-operation Agreement was unconstitutional as it would require
congressional approval, and had not been passed by the legislature. The
Santos administration has not sought congressional approval, and for
now, the agreement appears to have been abandoned.

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The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) was established in 1999 to promote democratic debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives. In order for citizens to effectively exercise their voices in a democracy, they should be informed about the problems and choices that they face. CEPR is committed to presenting issues in an accurate and understandable manner, so that the public is better prepared to choose among the various policy options.

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