WASHINGTON - December 14 - A telephone survey commissioned by Environmental Defense among 602 likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers reveals that over 2/3rds of caucus-goers – and more than 3/4ths of Democratic county chairs – consider global warming to be extremely or very serious.
- A 72% of majority of Democratic caucus-goers say they consider global warming to be extremely (32%) or very (39%) serious – while another 15% say it is fairly serious. Only 11% dismiss it as just somewhat (9%) or not at all serious (2%).
- Among a separate poll of Democratic county chairs and vice chairs, 77% think global warming is extremely (37%) or very (40%) serious – plus 14% who say it is fairly serious.
The research also included a separate poll of Democratic county chairs and vice chairs – perhaps the first time such a survey of Iowa Democratic party influentials has ever been released.
Democrats are More Prone to Support a 'Global Warming' Candidate but They Do Not Know Most Candidates' Stands on the Issue
Large majorities of these active Iowa Democrats are also more likely to support a presidential candidate who makes cutting carbon pollution and global warming a centerpiece in their campaign – however at least two-fifths of caucus-goers do not know where the candidates stand on global warming.
- Fully 69% of caucus-goers and 80% of county chairs/vice chairs say they would be more likely “to support a presidential candidate who made cutting carbon pollution and global warming a big issue in their campaign.” Only 14% of caucus-goers and 9% of county chairs say they would be less likely to support such a candidate.
- Large blocs of caucus-goers – ranging from 43% to 86% -- either do not know the candidates or more likely do not know their stands on global warming. In no case are a majority of caucus-goers able to offer an excellent or good rating of likely Democratic candidates’ performance on addressing the issue of global warming (ranging from 42% excellent/good for John Edwards to 28% for Tom Vilsack to 6% for Chris Dodd).
Just 16% of likely caucus-goers say their mind is made up on whom to support. The remaining caucus-goers are either initially undecided (8%) or say they could still be persuaded to support someone other than their first choice (75%).
Iowa Democrats are Widely Supportive of a Proposal to Reduce Carbon Emissions
A later survey question reveals that 72% of caucus-goers and 67% of county chairs favor a proposal to reduce carbon emissions in the U.S. (based on a description that resembles a Senate bill entitled the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act – and the wording can be found in the attached appendix). The measure is opposed by 15% of caucus-goers and 25% of county chairs.
In terms of long-range problems, caucus-goers rank global warming on par with other leading problems such as health care and high government deficits – and well above issues such as terrorism, new diseases, and competition for jobs from developing countries.
“I’d like you to tell me which you think will be the biggest problem for the next generation.” |
| % of Caucus-Goers | % of County Chairs |
The cost of health care | 22 | 11 |
High government deficits | 21 | 28 |
The effects of global warming | 19 | 24 |
Competition for jobs from developing nations | 11 | 19 |
Energy shortages | 7 | 9 |
New diseases and health problems | 7 | 5 |
Terrorism | 7 | 3 |
Indeed, if one were to combine the closely related problems of global warming and energy shortages they would be ranked by Iowa Democrats as the top long-term problem facing America’s next generation.
“These various survey findings illustrate the breadth and intensity of support among Iowa Democrats for expecting the presidential candidates to not only address global warming on the stump but to actively promote a meaningful solution like carbon reduction,” said pollster and Iowa native Paul Harstad.
John Edwards Starts Out with a Substantial Lead in the Iowa Caucuses, but the Race is Very Fluid
John Edwards is well out front in the early preferences not only of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers (36%), but also among Democratic county chairpersons (40%), according to the dual surveys released by Environmental Defense.
Other prospective candidates scoring in the double-digits consist of Hillary Clinton (16%) and Barack Obama (13%) – while those prospective candidates scoring in single-digits include Tom Vilsack (9%), John Kerry (6%), Joe Biden (5%), Wesley Clark (3%), Bill Richardson (2%), and Evan Bayh (less than 1%). Overall, 8% of caucus-goers say they are undecided in their initial preference.
Early Preferences among likely Democratic candidates for the Presidential Nomination |
| % of Caucus-Goers | % of County Chairs |
John Edwards | 36 | 40 |
Hillary Clinton | 16 | 8 |
Barack Obama | 13 | 11 |
Tom Vilsack | 9 | 15 |
John Kerry | 6 | 6 |
Joe Biden | 5 | 2 |
Wesley Clark | 3 | 2 |
Bill Richardson | 2 | 1 |
Evan Bayh | * | 3 |
Chris Dodd | - | - |
Other | 1 | 1 |
Undecided on Vote | 8 | 11 |
The surveys were conducted from October 12 to 19, 2006, among a cross-section of 602 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 100 Democratic county chair and vice chairs in Iowa. The research was conducted by HARSTAD STRATEGIC RESEARCH, INC., of Boulder, Colorado.
Harstad Strategic Research
2820 N. Lakeridge Trail
Boulder, CO 80302
Tel: 303-545-0200
Fax: 303-442-9196
www.HarstadResearch.com
Results from Iowa Statewide Surveys of Likely 2008 Democratic Caucus-Goers and County Chairs - October 2006
Most people don’t have the time to attend the presidential caucuses in January of presidential election years. Thinking ahead to 2008, please tell me the chances you will attend a Democratic presidential caucus on a Monday evening in January. Will you definitely attend, probably attend, the chances are 50-50 that you will attend, or will you probably not attend the caucuses?
Dem
Caucus
Goers
[n=602]
Definitely attend.................................................................................. 48%
Probably attend.................................................................................. 52%
50-50.................................................................................................. % Þ Terminated
Probably not attend............................................................................ % Þ Terminated
DK/NS................................................................................................. % Þ Terminated
I know it’s a long way off, but I’d like you to think ahead to the Democratic primary for president. I’m going to read you the names of 12 POSSIBLE Democratic candidates for president. Please tell me for whom would you vote in the caucuses if the candidates were [randomized order] Al Gore, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, John Kerry, Barack Obama, Mark Warner, Evan Buy, Tom Vilsack, Bill Richardson, Russ Feingold, Wesley Clark, Joe Biden, and Chris Dodd? [If ‘DK/NS,’ asked] Well, which way do you lean?
Dem Caucus Goers Dem County Chairs
Ranked by % Vote [n=602] [n=100]
John Edwards........................................... 36% 40%
Hillary Clinton............................................ 16% 8%
Barack Obama.......................................... 13% 11%
Tom Vilsack.............................................. 9% 15%
John Kerry................................................ 6% 6%
Joe Biden.................................................. 5% 2%
Wesley Clark............................................ 3% 2%
Bill Richardson.......................................... 2% 1%
Evan Bayh................................................ *% 3%
Chris Dodd............................................... - -
Other........................................................ 1% 1%
Undecided on vote.................................... 8% 11%
Would you say that your mind is made up to support that candidate, or could you still be persuaded to support a different candidate? [Asked after vote]
Dem Dem
Caucus County
Goers Chairs
[n=602] [n=100]
Mind made up..................................................................................... 16% 19%
Still be persuaded............................................................................... 75% 69%
DK/NS................................................................................................. 1% 1%
Undecided on candidate preference (from prior question)................. 8% 11%
I’m going to read you a list of seven problems that the next generation MAY face twenty years from now. I’d like you to tell me which you think will be the biggest problem for the next generation? [Read list, Randomized] [Asked of a random ½ of caucus-goer sample, asked of everyone in county chair sample]
Dem Dem
Caucus County
Goers Chairs
[n=300] [n=100]
The cost of health care....................................................................... 22% 11%
High government deficits.................................................................... 21% 28%
The effects of global warming............................................................. 19% 24%
Competition for jobs from developing nations..................................... 11% 19%
Energy shortages............................................................................... 7% 9%
New diseases and health problems.................................................... 7% 5%
Terrorism............................................................................................ 7% 3%
DK/NS................................................................................................. 5% 1%
How serious do you think the problem of global warming is – extremely serious, very serious, fairly serious, just somewhat serious, or not serious at all?
Dem Dem
Caucus County
Goers Chairs
[n=602] [n=100]
Extremely + Very serious.................................................................... 72% 77%
Extremely serious............................................................................... 32% 37%
Very serious....................................................................................... 39% 40%
Fairly serious...................................................................................... 15% 14%
Just somewhat serious........................................................................ 9% 8%
Not serious at all................................................................................. 2% -
DK/NS................................................................................................. 2% 1%
Would you be MORE likely or LESS likely to support a Presidential candidate who made cutting carbon pollution and global warming a big issue in their campaign? [If more/less, asked] Would you be much (more/less) likely or only somewhat (more/less) to support the candidate?
Dem Dem
Caucus County
Goers Chairs
[n=602] [n=100]
More likely.......................................................................................... 69% 80%
Less likely........................................................................................... 14% 9%
Much more likely................................................................................. 27% 32%
Somewhat more likely......................................................................... 42% 48%
Somewhat less likely........................................................................... 8% 8%
Much less likely .................................................................................. 6% 1%
No difference [Do not read]................................................................ 11% 7%
DK/NS................................................................................................. 6% 4%
Now I am going to read you the names of possible presidential candidates. After I read each name, please tell me how would you rate their performance on addressing the issue of global warming – excellent, good, only fair, or poor? If you don’t know a name – or have no idea about their performance on global warming – please just say so. [Randomized names] [If respondent said they didn’t know, asked] Do you not know (Re-read candidate’s name), or do you not know his/her position on global warming?
| | | Exlnt+ | Only | DK | DK |
| Ranked by Performance | Good | Excllnt | Good | Fair | Poor | Candidate | GW Perf |
| John Edwards [Form X] |
| Dem Caucus Goers [n=302] | 42 | 9% | 33% | 12% | 1% | 8% | 38% |
| Dem County Chairs [n=100] | 69 | 23% | 46% | 9% | 1% | - | 21% |
| John Kerry [Form X] |
| Dem Caucus Goers [n=302] | 40 | 7% | 33% | 14% | 3% | 8% | 35% |
| Dem County Chairs [n=100] | 67 | 23% | 44% | 16% | - | - | 17% |
| Hillary Clinton [Form Y] |
| Dem Caucus Goers [n=300] | 36 | 9% | 28% | 12% | 2% | 9% | 40% |
| Dem County Chairs [n=100] | 42 | 10% | 32% | 16% | - | - | 42% |
| Tom Vilsack [Form X] |
| Dem Caucus Goers [n=302] | 29 | 5% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 10% | 40% |
| Dem County Chairs [n=100] | 53 | 16% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 31% |
| Barack Obama [Form X] |
| Dem Caucus Goers [n=302] | 20 | 6% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 18% | 57% |
| Dem County Chairs [n=100] | 40 | 8% | 32% | 6% | 1% | 6% | 47% |
| Joe Biden [Form Y] |
| Dem Caucus Goers [n=300] | 18 | 4% | 14% | 12% | 2% | 16% | 53% |
| Dem County Chairs [n=100] | 32 | 8% | 24% | 18% | - | - | 50% |
| Evan Bayh [Form Y] |
| Dem Caucus Goers [n=300] | 11 | 2% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 25% | 57% |
| Dem County Chairs [n=100] | 24 | 7% | 17% | 10% | 1% | 5% | 60% |
| Wesley Clark [Form Y] |
| Dem Caucus Goers [n=300] | 10 | 3% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 21% | 57% |
| Dem County Chairs [n=100] | 11 | 2% | 9% | 13% | 2% | 2% | 72% |
| Bill Richardson [Form X] |
| Dem Caucus Goers [n=302] | 10 | 2% | 8% | 5% | *% | 28% | 57% |
| Dem County Chairs [n=100] | 25 | 7% | 18% | 9% | - | 9% | 57% |
| Chris Dodd [Form Y] |
| Dem Caucus Goers [n=300] | 6 | 2% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 29% | 57% |
| Dem County Chairs [n=100] | 12 | 2% | 10% | 9% | - | 12% | 67% |
As you probably already know, when fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal are burned, there are carbon emissions. Most scientists say that global warming is due to carbon emissions. I would like to describe a proposal to reduce carbon emissions in the United States. The US Government would require reductions of carbon emissions by placing a mandatory limit on those emissions from large industrial sources such as power plants, refineries, and large manufacturers. It would also create a market for those carbon reductions by allowing anyone who can reduce emissions - big factories or small businesses and farmers -- to sell "emissions credits" into that market. A company could combine its own emission reductions, plus those it bought from others, to meet its overall obligation. That way everyone would have an incentive to find ways to cut carbon emissions. Based on this information, do you favor or oppose this proposal? [If respondent says favor or opposes ask:] Do you strongly [favor/oppose] or do you somewhat [favor/oppose] this proposal?
Dem Dem
Caucus County
Goers Chairs
[n=602] [n=100]
Favor.................................................................................................. 72% 67%
Oppose............................................................................................... 15% 25%
Strongly favor..................................................................................... 34% 33%
Somewhat favor.................................................................................. 37% 34%
Somewhat oppose.............................................................................. 8% 13%
Strongly oppose................................................................................. 7% 12%
DK/NS................................................................................................. 13% 8%
Methodology
The October 2006 Iowa Statewide Survey of likely 2008 Democratic caucus-goers and Democratic party chairpersons was conducted by HARSTAD STRATEGIC RESEARCH, INC, the national public opinion research firm in Boulder, Colorado.
The results of the caucus-goer survey are based on a total of 602 interviews conducted from October 12-19, 2006, among likely Iowa Democratic caucus voters. The random sample of 602 caucus-goers has a worst-case 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 4.0% about any one reported percentage. For some questions, the sample was randomly assigned into two halves, and certain questions were asked of one half, while other questions were asked of the other half. These results have a worst-case 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 5.7%.
The survey of 100 Democratic party county chairpersons and vice-chairpersons was conducted October 12-22, 2006. The sample of 100 Democratic party county chairpersons and vice-chairpersons has a confidence interval of plus or minus 6.7% about any one reported percentage.
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