UK emergency services have been put on alert as the World Health Organisation (WHO) warns that a potentially deadly from of bird flu that affects humans could spark a global epidemic this winter.

An emergency planning doc ument spelling out the disastrous likely consequences of such an epidemic has already been distributed to government agencies.

Although only relatively few human cases of the flu strain - known as H5N1 - have been reported, the WHO believes that if it took hold it could spread dangerously quickly.

Dr Jim McMenamin, consultant epidemiologist with the NHS's Health Protection Scotland in charge of the flu surveillance system in this country, told the Sunday Herald that it is "a question of when rather than if we get an influ enza pandemic."

He added: "The globalisation of culture has lead to the globalisation of disease. International air travel means that infection can be just a few hours away. All it takes is just one person to serve as a seed."

The emergency planning document reveals that Britain is desperately unprepared for such an epidemic. At present there are no drugs to protect humans from H5N1, and it is expected to take at least six months to make a vaccine.

In human cases reported so far, the death rate has been chillingly high. In Thailand 17 people were infected, of whom 12 died. In Vietnam, 27 caught the disease and only seven lived.

A Pandemic Influenza Plan has been drawn up and circulated to all health boards and NHS trusts under the auspices of the Cabinet Office's Civil Contingencies Group on Pandemic Planning.

It states: "concerns about pandemic influenza are at an all-time high", and suggests that "a minimum of 25% of the population will become ill" and "10% to 35% of the workforce may be absent from work."

One section reads: "Mortality is likely to be high - estimated at 1% of the total population." The global death toll of the pandemic could be between 50 and 100 million.

The UK government believes high levels of death and illness could lead to public disorder. Quarantine, travel res trictions and the issuing of face masks are all being considered as protective measures.

A large number of school children could be affected, with working parents having to take time off to care for them. Schools could be shut down during the outbreak. Every element of industry and services could be severely affected.

Under the heading "Societal Disruption" the document says the government "needs to consider maintenance of essential services such as … utilities [and] communication; management of mass casualties; maintenance of public order; the role of police and armed forces".

A Scottish Executive health spokesman said: "We are well aware of the potential risk of a flu pandemic, and we have been working closely for some time with the rest of the UK on ways in which we can minimise risk and control any outbreak."

© 2004 newsquest (sunday herald) limited

###