WASHINGTON – Despite President George W. Bush’s continued insistence that its efforts in Iraq are making steady progress, a new report by two Washington-based think tanks argues that the situation has deteriorated since the handover of “sovereignty” from the U.S.-led occupation authorities to the interim Iraq government.

More U.S. soldiers and contractors have been killed and injured over three months since the transition to Iraqi rule on June 28, 2004, than any other three-month period since the U.S.-led invasion in March, 2003, while the estimated strength of insurgent forces appears to have risen sharply, according to the report by the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) and Foreign Policy in Focus (FPIF).

In addition, more members of the 30-nation coalition that joined with the U.S. in support of the invasion have withdrawn their forces, the latest being Costa Rica which, although it never actually contributed troops, demanded earlier this month to be taken off the coalition list.

Body counts appear to be rising for Iraqis themselves, both as a result of the insurgency and U.S.-led efforts to put it down and as a result of a crime wave that has persisted, if not spread, since the U.S. invasion, according to the 86-page report, ‘A Failed Transition: The Mounting Costs of the Iraq War.’

“This is a re-run of the Vietnam War on fast-forward,” said IPS director John Cavanagh, who contributed to the study. “It’s astounding that the number of monthly U.S. casualties is higher during this so-called ‘transition’ to Iraqi rule than during the initial six weeks of the U.S. invasion.”

The report was released just hours before the first nationally televised presidential debate between Bush and his Democratic challenger, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, who has in recent weeks become increasingly critical of the U.S. effort in Iraq and the way it has been carried out.

During a visit last week by Iraq’s interim president Iyad Allawi, Bush himself insisted that the more progress was being made on the ground in Iraq than the U.S. public was hearing about through the media. He also dismissed a particularly gloomy intelligence report that was leaked to the New York Times as guesswork.

But most independent experts – and what the Washington Post Wednesday called “a growing number of career professionals within national security agencies” – believe that the situation is in fact considerably worse than what the administration has conceded. Indeed, Secretary of State Colin Powell himself acknowledged Sunday that the insurgency in Iraq is “getting worse.”

The main author, Phyllis Bennis, a Middle East analyst based at IPS, has been keeping tabs on the costs of the U.S. campaign was launched 18 months ago.

The numbers her team recorded for the report pretty much bear out Powell’s own analysis. The Pentagon itself, according to the study, estimates that the number of Iraqi insurgents has quadrupled from some 5,000 in November, 2003, to 20,000 today, while the deputy commander of the coalition forces in Iraq, British Mar. Gen. Andrew Graham, has said he thinks the number is at least twice that many, from 40,000 to 50,000.

With the increase in the strength of the insurgency, both the number of attacks against coalition forces, as well as civilian targets, has also risen to twice what they were last winter.

U.S. casualties – both killed and wounded – are averaging 747 a month since the “transition” took place. That contrasts with a monthly average of 482 casualties during the six-week invasion in the spring of 2003 and 415 casualties from over the 13 months leading up to the transition. More than 1,040 U.S. soldiers have died and 7,413 have been wounded over the past 18 months, more than 90 percent of all of them since Bush declared an end to major hostilities.

Non-Iraqi contractor deaths have also been highest during the “transition,” according to the report, with a monthly average of 17.5 contractors killed over the past three months, versus a monthly average of 7.6 contractor deaths over the previous 15 months. A total of 52 U.S. contractors have died to date.

As of last week, an estimated 12,800 to 14,800 Iraqi civilians have been killed in connection with the invasion and ensuring occupation, according to the report, which estimated the total number of injured civilians at roughly 40,000.

But the failure to date of the U.S. and Iraqi government forces to enforce security has also had a major impact that is not only related to the insurgency. Murder, rape, and kidnapping have kept tens of thousands of women off the streets and children out of school – the opening of school this year has been delayed until next month – and a major exodus of members of the middle and professional classes, particularly Iraq’s Christian community.

Meanwhile, despite Congressional appropriation of some US$18 billion for reconstruction, unemployment is running at 50 percent or more – roughly double what it was before the invasion. According to the report, the U.S. is currently employing only 120,000 Iraqis out of a work force of some seven million.

Moreover, Iraq’s health infrastructure has been severely weakened, particularly as a result of looting in the invasion’s aftermath, as well as the demands placed on it by the continuing violence and the failure to date to repair damaged water and sewage systems that are contributing to an outbreak of infectious diseases, including hepatitis, in various parts of the country.

In terms of cost to the U.S. taxpayer, the study says that Congress has so far approved $151.1 billion for Iraq alone, and that Congressional leaders have said they expect the administration to request another $60 billion after the November election. In terms of long-term costs, at least one economist has estimated that the total war bill to date will add up to an average of at least $3,415 for every U.S. household.

Economic and social costs, especially to soldiers’ families, have also been high. Since 2001, some 364,000 reserve troops and National Guard soldiers have been called up and required to serve tours of duty that often last as much as 20 months, resulting in losses of income to their families.

The average tour of duty for all soldiers in Iraq has been 320 days, and various studies have shown that as many as half of the soldiers may not re-enlist. An Army study last March found that 52 percent of soldiers in Iraq reported low morale and 75 percent complained that they were poorly led. Meanwhile, 44 percent of the country’s police forces have lost officers to Iraq, which has also depleted the ranks of other “first responders,” such firefighters and emergency medical personnel in local communities.

Almost two-thirds of injuries suffered by U.S. forces in Iraq were severe enough to prevent them from returning to duty, while a recent study in the New England Journal of Medicine reported that one in six soldiers returning from Iraq showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder, major depression, or severe anxiety.

Other costs resulting from the war, according to the report, include a sharp rise in recruitment by al Qaeda and like-minded groups, with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies recently estimating al Qaeda’s active membership at some 18,000.

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