WASHINGTON - With its battle to kill the decade-long U.S. ban on assault weapons won, the National Rifle Association is now setting its sights on the Nov. 2 presidential and congressional elections.

The 10-year ban on importing or manufacturing certain military-style assault weapons expires on Monday because Congress never renewed it.

While many decried its expiration and polls showed a majority of Americans supported the ban, few were ready to engage in a major fight with the NRA, the powerful gun lobby whose large financial war chest and committed 4-million membership has made it a political power for years.

"There's an enduring disconnect between public opinion and public policy on the gun issue. The majority of voters support stronger gun laws but for them the gun issue is not a No. 1 or top-tier concern," said Robert Spitzer, a political scientist at the State University of New York Cortland campus who specializes in gun politics.

"But for some of the NRA members, they are single-issue voters, deeply committed to their cause. As a consequence, they exert deep political force," he added.

The NRA, which generally supports Republicans, has not yet formally endorsed President Bush's re-election bid.

But its Web site calls his Democratic opponent, John Kerry, "the most anti-gun presidential nominee in United States history" despite efforts to paint himself as a gun owner and hunter.

NRA Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre said formal endorsements would not come until Congress recessed next month, but he did not hide his preferences for Bush's record on firearms. Although Bush said in 2000 he would back extension of the assault weapons ban, he never pushed for its passage and has embraced other NRA policy priorities.

"It's pretty clear where gun owners that care about their guns are going," LaPierre said in a telephone interview last week. He said Kerry's efforts at portraying himself as a sportsman showed the Democrat recognized his vulnerability.

"That gun in Kerry's hands says more than anything I can say," LaPierre said. "He wouldn't be doing that if he didn't realize it's make-or-break-it for a candidate out in the heartland of the country."

Some analysts say Democrat Al Gore's narrow defeat in several states with a large pro-gun electorate cost him the 2000 presidential election and that the Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994 because of NRA campaigning against them.

'FAULTY LEGISLATION'

For years, many opinion polls have shown public support for the assault weapons ban and some other gun control measures. But politicians have been hesitant about crossing the NRA, which can simultaneously mobilize grass-roots supporters and work the halls of power in Washington and state capitals.

"They don't want to tick off the NRA -- especially if they are in close races," said New York Democratic Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, elected on a gun control platform after her husband was slain in 1993 by a gunman on a commuter train.

Congress did pass the 10-year assault weapon ban in 1994 and President Bill Clinton signed it into law, but the NRA has since made the death of what LaPierre called "faulty legislation based on cosmetic nonsense" one of its top priorities.

While its demise was a win for the NRA, the year has not been all victories for the gun lobby. Another top priority, a bill to limit civil lawsuits against the gun industry, passed the House of Representatives but failed in the Senate. NRA allies killed it themselves after the Senate added to the bill a renewal of the assault weapon ban.

Gun control has not been a key issue in a campaign dominated by Iraq, terrorism, the economy, health care and the legacy of Vietnam. But with the assault weapons ban in the headlines and interest groups starting to advertise about guns, it may reappear on more voters' radar screens, especially among swing suburban voters in battleground states.

© Copyright 2004 Reuters Ltd

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