WASHINGTON — Six months ago, Washington Republicans scanned the Senate’s political landscape and saw it was good. Four Democrats in the increasingly Republican and conservative South were set to retire, and Republicans savored the chance to build on their one-seat majority this November.

Then the siren song of retirement pulled three Republicans into the shoals, putting control of the Senate in question. In the end, the Republicans could still prevail, or they could wind up in the minority, producing a divided Congress, regardless of who wins the White House.

In addition to the seven seats that will open because of retirement, two incumbents — one a Democrat in South Dakota, the other a Republican in Alaska — are considered vulnerable.

For Republicans, the biggest prize would be South Dakota, where a GOP victory would knock off Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. A glimpse at each key race:

CURRENT REPUBLICAN SEATS

— Illinois: Sen. Peter Fitzgerald chose not to seek re-election, giving Democrats their strongest shot at capturing a Republican seat. Charlie Cook, a respected political handicapper, lists the race as leaning Democratic.

Both candidates have impressive resumes — the Democrat is Barack Obama, a Harvard Law graduate, state senator and rising Democratic star. If elected, he would become the only black in the Senate. Republican Jack Ryan is also a Harvard Law grad and Wall Street investment banker who now works as an inner-city schoolteacher. “It’s the glamour race,” said Jennifer Duffy, Cook’s Senate expert. “They have five Ivy League degrees between them.”

— Colorado: Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell is retiring. The state’s primary is Aug. 10. The leading Democratic candidate is state Attorney General Ken Salazar. Republicans have a choice between wealthy beer executive Peter Coors and former U.S. Rep. Bob Schaffer.

— Oklahoma: Sen. Don Nickles stunned Republicans with his decision to retire. The leading Democratic primary candidate is Rep. Brad Carson. He is facing a challenge from state Insurance Commissioner Carroll Fisher, as well as lawyer Monte Johnson and retired teacher Jim Rogers. Republicans will choose among Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys, former U.S. Rep. Tom Coburn and Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony.

— Alaska: Sen. Lisa Murkowski, appointed by her father to fill his unexpired term when he was elected governor, is facing a tough primary challenge from former Alaska Senate President Mike Miller. Democrats recruited a strong challenger in former Gov. Tony Knowles. Knowles supports drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, unlike most non-Alaska Democrats.

CURRENT DEMOCRATIC SEATS

—South Dakota: Sen. Tom Daschle, the Senate Democratic Party leader, faces a tough race against former U.S. Rep. John Thune. Polls show the race neck and neck. Republicans say Thune should jump ahead after he begins an advertising push in the state. Two years ago, Thune barely lost his challenge to the state’s other Democratic senator, Tim Johnson.

— Florida: Sen. Bob Graham is retiring, creating fierce primary fights in both parties. A crowded Republican primary field includes former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez, state House Speaker Johnny Byrd and State Sen. Dan Webster.

The Democratic primary pits three political figures against each other — former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor, U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch and Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas.

— North Carolina: Sen. John Edwards, who failed in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, decided not to seek re-election. Former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles is the only Democrat running, and is a strong contender. Bowles lost a race for the state’s other Senate seat two years ago to Republican Elizabeth Dole.

The leading Republican candidate is U.S. Rep. Richard Burr.

— South Carolina: Sen. Ernest Hollings is retiring. The leading Democratic candidate is Inez Tenenbaum, the state superintendent of schools.

Republicans have a primary contest. The leading contenders are former Gov. David Beasley and U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint.

“Beasley is the stronger general election candidate,” Duffy said. “DeMint has a lot of support from the business community.” —Louisiana: Sen. John Breaux is retiring. The Republican candidate is U.S. Rep. David Vitter. The Democratic contest pits U.S. Rep. Chris John, considered the favorite, against state Rep. Arthur Morrell and state Treasurer John Kennedy.

Under Louisiana election law, this race could end up in a runoff if no one wins a majority in the November election. That means the fate of the Senate might have to wait until after a Dec. 4 runoff election.

The South is not friendly country for Democrats, but analysts say the party has recruited some of the most electable candidates in years.

“The Democrats have fielded an unusually strong class of challengers,” said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of a widely read political newsletter, “Unfortunately for them, virtually all of those challengers are running in reliable Republican or conservative states.”

Republicans also think they have a shot at winning in Washington state, where Republican U.S. Rep. George Nethercutt is challenging incumbent Sen. Patty Murray. Democrats are putting their longer shot hopes on Pennsylvania, where Democrat U.S. Rep. Joe Hoeffel is challenging incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter, who survived a tough Republican primary.

© 2004 KR Washington Bureau and wire service sources

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