One of the bleakest prognoses on the future of the Great Barrier Reef predicts that warmer oceans will kill 95 per cent of its coral by 2050.

A report by Queensland's Center for Marine Studies (CMS) said the reef - the world's largest chain of coral - will not survive as the Pacific Ocean warms steadily in the coming decades. The authors warned that, even if the most optimistic forecasts prove true, tourists will be able to see coral only in distant reef "theme parks".

Australia's Great Barrier Reef will lose most of its coral cover by 2050 and, at worst, the world's largest coral system could collapse by 2100 because of global warming, a study released on February 21, 2004. The study by Queensland University's Center for Marine Studies, commissioned by the Worldwide Fund for Nature, said that the destruction of coral on the Great Barrier Reef was inevitable due to global warming, regardless of what actions were taken now. A portion of the Great Barrier Reef is seen in this undated file photo. Photo by Reuters

The report, which was largely funded by the Queensland and federal governments, said: "Coral cover will decrease to less than 5 per cent on most reefs by the middle of the century, under even the most favorable assumptions. Reefs will not disappear, but they will be devoid of coral. There is little to no evidence that corals can adapt fast enough to match even the lower projected temperature rise."

A spokesman for the Environment Ministry said the report was "a good contribution to debate about the reef from a constructive organization". But, speaking on condition of anonymity, he said the government's stance on not signing the Kyoto pact would remain the same because the treaty - not ratified by the United States and Russia - was not a global treaty.

The Kyoto Protocol must be ratified by no fewer than 55 countries to come into force, and account for at least 55 per cent of global emissions in 1990. That minimum can only be reached with Russia's ratification because the US and several other nations have rejected the treaty outright.

The Great Barrier Reef, which stretches nearly 1,200 miles along the north Queensland coast, is one of the seven wonders of the natural world and one of Australia's biggest tourist attractions. The report, commissioned by the Worldwide Fund for Nature and Queensland's state tourism body, said the Pacific is warming too fast for the coral to survive.

Temperature rises of just 1C in the past have either killed coral or bleached it, draining it of vibrant colors. Marine scientists predict that water temperatures will rise up to 6C during the next century.

The conservative government of John Howard has made attempts to limit damage to the reef. Measures taken include increasing the size of "high-protection zones" from 4.5 per cent to one-third of the total area, equivalent to 44,000 square miles.

In those areas, fishing is banned and tourism is the only industry allowed. Fishing is thought to make coral more susceptible to bleaching, as is the run-off of sediments after heavy rains. The reef brings in about 1.5bn Australian dollars (£600m) each year through fishing and tourism. More than 1.3 million commercial dives are made each year.

The report was produced by Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, the head of the CMS - and regarded as a pioneer in his field - and his father, Hans, an economic forecaster. Their 350-page report, based on a two-year study, warned that damage to the reef will cost the economy A$8bn (£3.3bn) and more than 12,000 jobs by 2020. It said that, if 95 per cent of the coral is lost, it will take the reef up 100 years to recover.

A study last August, commissioned by the Queensland government, found that bleaching could be an annual occurrence by 2050.

The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park has 2,900 reefs and more than 1,500 species of fish, 400 species of corals, 4,000 species of mollusks, 500 species of seaweed and 215 species of birds. The park authority has put in place a climate change program.

Paul Marshall, the park's program. manager, said: "We have to accept degradation, but how much and how fast is certainly something we can influence."

He said such initiatives as cutting the flow of sediment, fertilizers and pesticides on to the reef would help, as healthier coral was more resilient.

© 2004 Independent Digital (UK) Ltd

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