WASHINGTON - An independent commission to investigate intelligence failures before last year's invasion of Iraq being demanded by Democrats could pose a serious political threat to President Bush.

What has happened was more than a failure of intelligence -- it was the result of manipulation of the intelligence to justify a decision to go to war.

Sen. Edward Kennedy

But analysts said with Bush's Republicans in control of both houses of Congress he stood a good chance of avoiding such an investigation, which would keep the issue alive in the run-up to November's presidential election.

"The administration wants as little attention as possible paid to the process by which they concluded that war with Iraq was a good idea," said Steven Walt, dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

"A commission would keep the issue in the news for another year. That's the last thing they want," he said.

Following Senate testimony on Wednesday from former U.S. weapons hunter David Kay that that U.S. intelligence about Saddam Hussein's suspected weapons of mass destruction had been fundamentally flawed, Democrats redoubled their calls for an independent inquiry. Kay himself backed the idea.

In a worrying sign for the White House, Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, known for his independent streak, broke party ranks to support the call.

"We need an independent commission to continue to investigate this because these questions need to be answered, including ... why it is that we have so badly missed the mark on this and other cases," McCain said.

RICE DEFLECTS CALLS

The administration sent national security adviser Condoleezza Rice to appear on Thursday morning news shows on ABC, NBC and CBS to deflect the calls.

"We simply believe that there is work still to be done. The Iraq Survey Group is trying to complete its work," she told NBC's Today Show.

"In fact, the intelligence community has its own investigation, inquiry going on -- a kind of audit of what was known going in and what was found when they got there. They have an external panel that is doing that for them. A lot is going on," Rice said.

University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape said the fact Rice was on three shows suggested the White House was worried. The issue is certain to remain front and center in the ongoing presidential campaign.

"The fact Rice was out there on three shows tells you the momentum for an inquiry is building and she felt she needed to get out ahead of it and nip it in the bud," Pape said.

Kay was careful to say he did not believe intelligence had been manipulated by the administration making its case for invading Iraq -- just that it had been wrong.

"Certainly the intelligence service believed that there were WMD (weapons of mass destruction). It turns out we were all wrong, probably in my judgment, and that is most disturbing," he said.

KENNEDY: DATA "MANIPULATED"

Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy had a starkly different view. "What has happened was more than a failure of intelligence -- it was the result of manipulation of the intelligence to justify a decision to go to war," he said.

Joseph Cirincione, author of a study released this month concluding Iraq had no threatening weapons of mass destruction by the late 1990s, said: "The administration is playing for time because it sees this mainly as a political problem.

"They hope to stall until after the November presidential election and are less interested in seeing what went wrong than in avoiding blame," he said.

"It is lame to claim they need more time for internal investigations. Almost everything (Secretary of State) Colin Powell told the U.N. last February about Iraq's alleged weapons was wrong. Why was that? The President doesn't have an answer," said Cirincione, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

With Republicans controlling both houses of Congress, the administration stands a good chance of stonewalling calls for a commission if its troops in the legislature hold firm.

But if the situation on the ground in Iraq were to deteriorate or more officials came forward with information, whether by name or anonymously, pressure for an independent commission could mount.

"What needs to happen now is for another important Republican to break ranks or more information to come forth. Otherwise, the administration will probably weather the storm," said Pape.

Copyright 2004 Reuters Ltd

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