WASHINGTON - Analysts expect few surprises from new U.S. budget data due out later on Monday, but fresh evidence of the government's gloomy financial outlook will still provide more fuel for both Democratic and Republican critics of President Bush's fiscal policies.

In its latest budget outlook, the Congressional Budget Office is expected to predict a record federal deficit in the neighborhood of $500 billion this year and a cumulative budget shortfall around three times that figure in the coming decade, congressional analysts from both political parties said.

The nonpartisan agency in August last forecast deficits of $480 billion in 2004, $341 billion in 2005 and nearly $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years.

Since then, Congress has approved a $400 billion Medicare drug benefit and $87 billion in emergency spending for Iraq, but much of the fiscal impact of those changes may be offset by increased revenues amid a recovering economy, analysts said.

While the U.S. budget outlook may not have changed too much over the past six months, the political situation has shifted significantly where fiscal matters are concerned.

Democrats have long slammed Bush for the steep slide in the government's finances since it enjoyed a record surplus of $236 billion in 2000, blaming his big tax cuts. But their criticisms have not yet struck much of a chord outside Washington.

Now, however, just as the White House prepares to roll out its 2005 budget on Feb. 2, Bush has also begun taking fire from conservatives within his own party for not laying out concrete plans to cut government spending and reduce the deficit.

That led administration officials to promise on Thursday an effective freeze on federal spending next year not connected to defense or homeland security, calling that the foundation of a plan to halve the deficit in the next five years.

Congressional and private-sector budget analysts, however, note the move would save the government only around $8 billion out of a $2 trillion-plus federal budget -- even if Congress can be made to swallow the cuts it would require.

"It's more like an effort to get through the next 10 days," said Stan Collender, a veteran budget watcher at public relations firm Fleishman Hillard. "It isn't going to happen."

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