WASHINGTON -
A survey by the Army and Air Force
National Guard indicates more part-time troops could begin
leaving the stressed U.S. military after overseas deployments
such as Iraq, a Guard spokesman said on Friday.
The voluntary survey of 5,000 Guard troops returning from
Iraq and other overseas deployments found that the rate of
those leaving the military after such assignments could jump
from a current 12.5 percent to more than 20 percent.
"Yes, we are concerned. And that's the reason that we do
it," said Dan Donohue, a spokesman for the National Guard
Bureau at the Pentagon, referring to taking surveys.
Donohue and other officials said the survey, taken late
last year among returning Guard members in 15 states, was
random and should not be extrapolated to the overall National
Guard and Reserves.
But the survey, first reported in USA Today, is expected to
fuel concern that the military might face a future exodus among
the tens of thousands of part-time soldiers called to active
duty upon whom it has been relying heavily in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
"It is not a knee-jerk reaction to a number" in the survey,
said Donohue. "We want to have a good handle on that soldier's
or that airman's mind as they return from overseas because a
big issue is retention. It is keeping the good people you've
got."
Chief Pentagon spokesman Lawrence Di Rita said the survey
was part of efforts to watch for any negative trend in
recruitment and retention in the all-volunteer military.
"It is something that is virtually under constant review.
There is an awful lot of attention and action being taken," Di
Rita said.
NEED TO AVERT A CRISIS
Lt. Gen. James Helmly, the top officer in the U.S. Army
Reserve, this week said the military needed to move quickly to
avert a crisis in retaining Army Reserve troops amid concern
that many will leave the service as soon as their commitments
are completed.
Helmly said retention figures were "artificially" propped
up, and a possible future crisis was being masked, because
reserve soldiers currently are prohibited under "stop-loss"
orders from departing the service while they are stationed in
Iraq.
Army Lt. Col. Dan Stoneking, a Pentagon spokesman, played
down any significance in the Guard survey.
"That (any major decrease in retention rate) is a
worst-case projection," Stoneking said. "Here's the reality
right now. There is no exodus. The Army National Guard did meet
its end-strength goals last year and the Guard is exceeding its
fiscal 2004 retention goals right this second for both
first-term and career soldiers."
"This was a limited, completely voluntary survey. If you
offer such a survey in the mess hall, for example, who's going
to step forward -- those who don't like the chow," he added.
But Daniel Goure, a defense analyst with the Lexington
Institute think tank, said there could be a significant
retention problem within the Guard and Reserve in the near
term.
Analysts have charged that the Army failed to keep faith
with its part-time troops by extending their deployments in
Iraq beyond what had been promised.
"The problem here is the unpredictability of it -- the Army
was not able to keep its original commitments to these
guardsmen and reservists," Goure said.
Goure said the Pentagon has been forced to rely heavily on
these part-time troops because the size of the overall military
is too small and the force is structured poorly to meet 21st
century requirements.
Copyright 2004 Reuters Ltd
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