UNITED NATIONS - As the world's foremost advocate of democracy, the United States is trying its best to avoid a one-person-one-vote in Iraq -- at least for this year.

The irony is not lost on Shiite followers of Iraq's most influential cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who question why the United States agitates for the ballot box around the world but not in Iraq.

"Clearly Sistani fears it could lead to a less than full representation of the Shiite majority," David Malone, head of the International Peace Academy think-tank and a former Canadian U.N. ambassador, said.

And the United Nations basically agrees with the Bush administration. "There is a perception that early elections tend to favor extremists rather than the moderates," one senior U.N. official said.

"One thing the United Nations has learned from the early 1990s is that a well-run election requires a great deal of planning and even then the U.N. cannot guarantee violence-free elections," Malone said.

Secretary-General Kofi Annan is expected to send an electoral team into Iraq this month to study the practicality of direct elections or recommend alternatives, as requested by the United States and the Iraqi leaders. The group will go in after a report from a U.N. security mission, expected to arrive in Baghdad this week or next.

But most diplomats say they believe a second mission would have to follow to mediate. Washington would like Lakhdar Brahimi, who has just finished a two-year stint as U.N. chief envoy in Afghanistan, to negotiate. However, the former Algerian foreign minister has so far declined.

Brahimi was invited to the White House for talks on Thursday with senior U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Current procedures call for caucuses in 18 provinces to choose an interim assembly, although this may be modified to get Sistani's support. The assembly will select an interim government by June 30 after which Iraqis are to write a constitution and hold general elections by the end of 2005.

U.S. and U.N. officials have cited the short time available for a general election before June 30, with voter registration rolls nonexistent, even though many Iraqis are on lists for food rations under the former U.N. oil-for-food program.

U.S. envoys are talking about a phased transition to allow for time to build institutions, form political parties and create alliances that cut across tribal and religious groupings in an atmosphere free from violence.

ALTERNATE PROPOSALS

One problem with the current election plan, analysts say, is that few can explain the caucus procedure, thereby raising suspicions Washington wants to make room for exile leaders and others who could not win in their own right.

Among alternate suggestions is a hybrid system: elections in municipalities for two thirds of delegates who would then nominate representatives for the assembly. The U.S.-selected Iraqi Governing Council would choose the rest.

"The discussion, which has been stimulated by Ayatollah Sistani, is whether there could be an element of elections injected into the earlier part of the process," British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday.

Allies of Sistani have said he would respect the U.N. recommendations, although near-daily demonstrations for direct elections by his followers might take on a life of their own.

But Annan is cautious about how much the world body can do before June 30, saying the United Nations needs "clarity," a euphemism for independence from occupation authorities.

"The real issue is how on June 30 the Americans can hand over power to an interim government that Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis can live with. And it is on that point that Sistani is looking for United Nations assistance," Malone said.

Copyright 2004 Reuters Ltd

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