WASHINGTON -- Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean has surged into a wide lead in polling of 501 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a new poll released today by Zogby International as part of its “Road to Boston” series.
Nearly two in five (38%) supported Dean, giving him a substantial lead over Massachusetts Senator John Kerry at 17%. In February polling in New Hampshire, Kerry led Dean, 26% - 13%. In June, the gap had narrowed to Kerry 25%, Dean 22%.
All other Democratic presidential hopefuls remained in single digits, with Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman and Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt tied at 6%, followed by North Carolina Senator John Edwards at 4%, and Florida Senator Bob Graham and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich at 1% each. Former NATO Commander and retired General Wesley Clark, not yet a declared candidate, earned 2%. Civil rights activist Al Sharpton received 0.4%.
Nearly one-in-four (23%) remain undecided as to how they will actually vote in New Hampshire’s much watched January 27th primary.
Pollster John Zogby: “This is stunning. Dean’s surge seems to be at a heavy cost to Kerry, who led Dean in previous New Hampshire polling. Dean has also taken from Gephardt’s standing, and from the undecideds. His support is really across the board … both Congressional districts, men and women, Democrats and independents, liberals and moderates. He’s the candidate to watch at the top of the scale, while some of those down the line might re-think their candidacy at this point.”
| Candidate | August 23-26, 2003 | June 4-7, 2003 | Feb 24, 2003 |
| Dean | 38% | 22% | 13% |
| Kerry | 17 | 25 | 26 |
| Lieberman | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| Gephardt | 6 | 7 | 11 |
| Edwards | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Clark | 2 | - | 1 |
| Graham | 1 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Kucinich | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Sharpton | 0.4 | 1 | 1 |
| Mosley Braun | - | 1 | 2 |
| Someone Else | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Not Sure | 23 | 27 | 29 |
| | 501 LV, MOE +/- 4.5% | 600 LV, MOE +/- 4.1% | 600 LV, MOE +/-4.1% |
Nearly two-thirds (64%) of the respondents said they thought it was somewhat (46%) or very likely (18%) that President George W. Bush would be re-elected in 2004.
Dean enjoyed favorable/unfavorable ratings of 71% - 9% with 19% unfamiliar. Kerry earned a 66% - 19% with 13% unfamiliar. Lieberman was 55% favorable, 34% unfavorable, and 12% unfamiliar, and Gephardt was 54% - 23%, with 16% unfamiliar.
New Hampshire is part of Zogby International’s “Road to Boston” series of polls in Iowa, South Carolina, the Granite State, and nationally, leading up to selection of the Democratic presidential nominee at the Boston convention in July 2004.
Copyright 2003 by Zogby International
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