WASHINGTON --President Bush's approval ratings are high, but his re-election support doesn't match up, a reflection of the nation's unease about the struggling economy and uncertainty about who will be the Democratic nominee in 2004.
Pollster Celinda Lake argues that it will be hard for Bush to solidify his re-election support in tough economic times. She said the president's re-elect numbers are a sign that ``independents are in play.''
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Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and through the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Bush has enjoyed approval ratings of 60 percent or higher in most polls, indicative of the historical trend of the nation rallying around the commander in chief when the nation's security is threatened.
But now that the electorate is beginning to focus on Bush's handling of the economy and wondering who the Democrats will nominate, the president's re-elect numbers are at 50 percent or lower in several polls.
Democrats, who face an uphill fight to oust the popular incumbent, see a glimmer of hope in Bush's re-elect numbers, convinced that independent voters are up for grabs. Republicans counter that the stability of Bush's approval ratings bode well for next year.
In a recent CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll, 50 percent said they would vote for Bush and 38 percent backed the unknown Democratic candidate, with the rest undecided. Those numbers aren't very different from those garnered by Bush's father in June 1991, when the commander in chief was praised for the U.S. success in the Persian Gulf War and the Democrats were scrambling for a candidate.
Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush in the 1992 election.
``With job approval, you're asking how they feel right now,'' said Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup poll. Bush's job approval ratings won't accurately reflect his potential until March or April next year, Newport said.
In the last three decades, presidents who failed to capture a second term--Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush--had job approval ratings in the 40s shortly before the election, according to Republican pollster Bill McInturff. Presidents who were re-elected, such as Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, were in the 50s before the vote.
The current Gallup poll found that 37 percent of Democrats approve of Bush's job performance, but only a third of those Democrats who approve would vote to re-elect him. Among independents, the re-elect numbers weren't as high as the approval ratings.
``What this means is that Democrats and independents who lean Democratic still want to consider other choices,'' said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. ``Bush will still have to convince swing voters that he's the right person for the job once a Democratic candidate emerges.''
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake argues that it will be hard for Bush to solidify his re-election support in tough economic times. She said the president's re-elect numbers are a sign that ``independents are in play.''
Bush's re-elect numbers are even lower in the Ipsos-Cook Political Report tracking poll, which showed a drop for the president from April to June, a time when the nation's focus shifted from the U.S.-led war against Iraq to the economy, Medicare and tax cuts.
In June, 42 percent of those polled said they would definitely vote to re-elect Bush, and 31 percent said they would definitely vote for someone else, with the remainder saying they would consider someone else. Bush had a 19-point advantage over an unnamed opponent in the April survey by the Ipsos-Cook Political Report.
Veteran pollster Warren Mitofsky said who the Democrats pick will definitely influence the support for Bush's re-election, noting:
``The real question for the Democrats is will they choose a candidate who's as good as people are looking for?''
Copyright 2003, The Associated Press
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