WASHINGTON - Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has until late Wednesday to abandon power and flee Iraq or face a U.S.-led military onslaught aimed at hunting him down and dismantling his government.

"Saddam Hussein and his sons must leave Iraq within 48 hours," U.S. President George W. Bush said Monday in a nationally televised address. "Their refusal to do so will result in military conflict, commenced at a time of our choosing." The ultimatum is almost certain to trigger a war that will roil the Middle East, sorely test the strength of America's alliances and put the Bush presidency on the line.

As Bush put the nation on war footing, he also raised the terror alert from yellow to orange, the second-highest level, warning that terrorists may strike U.S. interests at home or abroad in response to action against Iraq.

Saddam vowed to stand and fight. Iraq's foreign minister said "any child" knew Saddam would not willingly go into exile.

Bush's ultimatum essentially served as a declaration of war.

A political effort to resolve the crisis ended in a diplomatic train wreck at the United Nations.

"I can think of nothing that Saddam Hussein could do diplomatically," U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said earlier Monday. "That time is now over."

It was a jarring day for a country unaccustomed to facing down threats without a large measure of international support. For the first time since the Vietnam War, the United States is prepared to initiate a conflict that is opposed by a vast majority of the world.

Any protracted struggle is laden with political risks for Bush. Americans back the war, but not in large numbers. Bush will be counting on a quick end to the war with relatively few casualties. A long and bloody conflict that increases the volatility in the Middle East and triggers terrorism at home could doom his presidency.

Unlike the Persian Gulf War of 1991 or the fight to expel Serbian forces from Kosovo, there is no vast multinational coalition lending this military initiative the patina of international approval.

There are over a quarter-million American and British troops in a ring ready to close in on Iraq. Poland and Australia announced they were prepared to allow its forces to participate in the operation aimed at ejecting Saddam, and Spain has also promised to lend its support to the operation.

But much of the world will condemn this mission.

Prime Minister Jean Chrétien told the House of Commons that Canada announced it would not join a war that wasn't sanctioned by the UN Security Council. His announcement was followed by a rousing ovation by Liberal MPs.

After Bush's address, Foreign Affairs Minister Bill Graham revealed in Ottawa that he had advance notice of the speech's contents. Graham said word came during a telephone discussion with Powell. Graham said he reiterated Chrétien's comments in the Commons, telling Powell that Canada won't join a war in Iraq unless it is sanctioned by the UN.

France led the fight to block the United Nations from sanctioning the conflict. And Russian President Vladimir Putin called war with Iraq "a mistake" that will lead to worldwide instability.

The first casualty of the war was inflicted on British Prime Minister Tony Blair's cabinet.

Robin Cook, the leader of Blair's government in the House of Commons and a former foreign secretary, resigned Monday in protest over Blair's unswerving support for the U.S.-led attack on Iraq.

Bush and his British and Spanish allies say Saddam has refused to surrender Iraq's alleged stockpiles of banned chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.

United Nations weapons inspectors, however, say they have found no such weapons during more than three months of searching in Iraq.

Signs of the looming military conflict were omnipresent and unmistakable.

Foreign embassies in Iraq pleaded with their nationals to leave the Middle East. UN weapons inspectors scrambled to evacuate Baghdad before the expected storm of satellite-guided weaponry rains down on the Iraqi capital.

There was a palpable sense of heightened anxiety in Baghdad. Sandbags have been piled into pillbox form at key intersections. Shopkeepers have moved their goods back into warehouses to prevent looting. The price of bottled water has doubled. Long lines formed at gasoline stations.

With the Americans telling him his time in power was dwindling down to hours, Saddam admitted Iraq once had weapons of mass destruction but has since destroyed them.

"We are not weapons collectors," Saddam said Monday, according to Iraq's state-run news agency. "But we had these weapons for purposes of self-defense when we were at war with Iran for eight years and when the Zionist (Israel) entity was - and it still is - a threat."

Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida has threatened further atrocities will be aimed at the United States if they invade Iraq.

Bush warned that war could lead to retaliatory strikes by terrorists on U.S. interests at home and abroad, and said he had ordered increased security at airports and along U.S. waterways.

"These attacks are not inevitable. They are, however, possible," Bush said. "We will not be intimidated by thugs and killers."

The U.S. president might find comfort and concern in the latest public opinion polls on war with Iraq. Almost two-thirds of Americans - 64 per cent - supported the idea of an invasion sanctioned by the UN, according to a new USA Today survey.

But backing drops to just 47 per cent without UN support.

A political effort to resolve the crisis derailed Monday at the United Nations. Canada had been working hard the last few weeks to broker a compromise on the Iraqi crisis, but all but gave up efforts after the United States, Britain and Spain withdrew plans for a new UN resolution in the face of a French threat to veto it.

Losing a vote at the Security Council would have been a blow to U.S. prestige. Instead of running that risk, the Bush administration chose to gamble on a war without the gloss of UN approval.

Ambassadors from the United States and Britain poured scorn on France for rejecting the proposed resolution before Baghdad last week.

"One country in particular has underlined its intention to veto any ultimatum," said Britain's Sir Jeremy Greenstock. That "would amount to no ultimatum, no pressure and no disarmament."

France's ambassador to the UN scurried to a microphone immediately afterward to defend his country.

"They have realized that the majority in the council is against and oppose a resolution authorizing the use of force. This is the position of the huge majority in the council," said Jean Marc de la Sabliere.

No use of force would be "legitimate" at this time because "inspections are producing results."

France proposed giving Iraq another month to comply with UN disarmament demands.

Bush and Blair would countenance no further delay.

© The Canadian Press, 2003

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