The endgame has begun -- not only with Iraq, but with America's friends.

By escalating his threats against Baghdad, and insisting he is unwilling to participate in "the rerun of a bad movie," President Bush is serving notice on Iraqi President Saddam Hussein that the time for prevarication is over. More immediately, he is signaling U.S. allies that he is prepared to go to war with Iraq without their approval.

The increasingly bellicose White House rhetoric puts the Bush administration sharply at odds with many of its European allies, particularly France, which has threatened to veto a second United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing a war with Iraq over its weapons of mass destruction. Even British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Bush's most loyal supporter, has called for U.N. weapons inspectors to be given the "time and space" to complete their work.

There remains a possibility that a "smoking gun" will emerge that will persuade the French and other allies of the case for early military action. For now, however, the United States faces the prospect of fighting a major war with little international support. Less than three months after winning a unanimous Security Council vote that gave Hussein one "last chance" to surrender his nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, the United States and Britain find themselves diplomatically isolated.

The White House hope is that a spirited show of U.S. determination will persuade reluctant allies to fall into line, rather than miss a chance to shape the future of the Middle East.

There is, however, a difference between the last time around and this time, according to foreign policy analyst Ivo Daalder of the Brookings Institution.

Although the Security Council's Nov. 8 vote demanding that Iraq cooperate with U.N. weapons inspectors was unanimous, it masked deep divisions among its members over the threshold for military action against Iraq and the length of time inspections should be allowed to continue before declaring Baghdad to be in "material breach" of its obligations. As war gets closer, these divisions have burst into the open.

Bush and his advisers are determined to avoid a repeat of the cat-and-mouse game that Iraq played with U.N. inspectors during the 1990s, when it dribbled out information about its weapons programs only under extreme duress. "Surely our friends have learned lessons from the past," Bush said, referring to French claims that Iraq is cooperating with the inspectors.

But French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin upped the challenge to Washington on Tuesday by saying Paris plans to lobby other European nations to oppose early military action in Iraq.

"It is important that Europe speak on this issue with a single voice," de Villepin said after talks with his Belgian counterpart. "We are mobilized; we believe war can be avoided."

Several European diplomats said they believe there is still "wiggle room" for France to reach agreement with the United States on the need for military action against Iraq, if presented with convincing evidence of clandestine Iraqi arms programs.

They noted that de Villepin used phrases such as "nothing today justifies a recourse to military action," implying that conditions could change tomorrow.

A refusal by France to endorse U.S. war plans would be a diplomatic embarrassment for the Bush administration, but probably not a fatal obstacle, analysts said. Turkey seems likely to agree to host as many as 15,000 U.S. troops, much lower than the original administration request, but enough to open a northern front. Kuwait, Qatar and Oman probably will cooperate, and Saudi Arabia will provide logistical support, while maintaining a public distance from Washington.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon ordered the deployment of two more Navy aircraft carrier battle groups, whose arrival in the Persian Gulf region will double the number of carriers deployed to within striking distance of Iraq.

The carrier movements came on the heels of a new Pentagon deployment of another 37,000 troops, including elements of the Texas-based 4th Infantry Division. It is the Army's most modernized infantry division, equipped with the military's most sophisticated command and control and communications systems.

The Los Angeles Times contributed to this report.

Copyright 2003 Washington Post Company

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