A surge of anti-American vitriol and an Internet-coordinated protest movement by voters in their 20s and 30s could tip the balance away from conservative politics.

Trailing in the polls just three weeks ago, Roh Moo Hyun, a human rights lawyer with no foreign-policy experience, appears to have taken a narrow lead on the eve of Thursday's election to replace departing President Kim Dae Jung. Roh has criticized U.S. efforts to isolate North Korea and cut off diplomatic dialogue after Pyongyang admitted that it violated earlier agreements not to produce nuclear weapons.

The Bush administration's assertive policies will endanger the South Korean people, he argues.

``There is no question that rising anti-American sentiment will help Roh,'' said Park Shin Il, a senior strategist for conservative candidate Lee Hoi Chang, who despite his experience, elite background and years of government service trails by about four percentage points on the eve of the vote.

Lee's supporters value the sort of stability he would bring to the presidency, and proudly acknowledge the debt that Koreans feel to the United States for coming to its aid when the North Koreans attacked in 1950, and for continuing to defend its border today with 37,000 active-duty soldiers.

``I'm voting for the security of the country,'' said Day Chang, 66, who runs a trading company. ``We need a good leader who can make strong ties to the United States. Without the U.S., we'd be occupied by Pyongyang now.''

Generation gap

Younger voters, by contrast, have no memory of war on the Korean Peninsula and tend to see North Koreans as estranged siblings, not dangerous enemies. Many say they are annoyed by Washington's growing unilateralism, whether in Iraq or South Korea.

``The U.S. has become more arrogant and rude toward South Korea and other countries,'' said Kim Jae Yung, 30, who works in an optical shop and will vote for Roh. ``North Korea is in big trouble now, so we should help them. If you corner them like rats, they will just strike out.''

The young Kim said that while the retiring president was not entirely successful, he would want Roh to continue President Kim's policy of corporate reform, which has reduced the influence of powerful conglomerates and created more opportunity for high-tech entrepreneurs.

Roh, who has never set foot on American soil, has masterfully exploited the issue of relations with the United States.

``This election is about war and peace,'' Roh told supporters at a campaign rally Tuesday. ``If we can't have exchange with the North Koreans, who will? And if we don't solve the problems of the Korean Peninsula peacefully, there will be no Northeast Asia, period.''

Roh, 56, also has successfully tapped into a deep vein of anti-U.S. resentment triggered by the deaths of two South Korean schoolgirls who were run over in July by a giant mine-clearing vehicle on a narrow road. Roh seized the lead in public-opinion polls only late last month, after a military court acquitted two U.S. Army sergeants of negligent homicide.

Last weekend, more than 30,000 peaceful but well-organized protesters rallied in front of Seoul City Hall to condemn the acquittal in what they called a demonstration of ``commonsense outrage.'' Sunday night, an American military officer said he was assaulted by three men near a military base in Seoul who cursed at him and tried to stab him.

``There is growing opposition to U.S. foreign policy, especially among the younger generation,'' said one Western diplomatic official, who asked not to be named.

Society transforming

Roh's surprisingly strong showing demonstrates how quickly South Korean society is transforming from a conservative, Confucian-based country shaped by the Cold War and dominated by family-run conglomerates to a progressive and more open-minded liberal society. Young South Koreans are demanding more autonomy and expect Seoul to renegotiate its role with Washington, no matter which candidate wins.

``If Lee loses this election, we'll know the tipping point has been passed and there is a fundamental shift'' in South Korea's attitudes, said Scott Snyder, a Korean expert and director of the Asia Foundation in Seoul. ``Those are the stakes. The young generation wants to stand up to the United States.''

Lee, 67, still holds a formidable organizational advantage. His Grand National Party traditionally has represented older, wealthier and more conservative voters who fund the party's entrenched political organization and can be counted on to vote. Until Kim's slim victory in a three-way contest five years ago, the GNP, or its forebears, had always controlled the Blue House, South Korea's presidential mansion.

Kim Jae Yung, the optical shop worker, said Lee's party does not understand the realities of a young, mobile, tech-savvy South Korea, a nation that has grown to become a world leader in mobile-telephone manufacturing and broadband computer usage in the past five years.

``Lee is supported by old people, led by old people and doesn't understand young people like me,'' Kim said. ``He doesn't even know how to use the Internet. He's just for the rich.''

Power of Internet

A man few expected to be contending for the presidency a year ago, Roh has used the organizing power of the Internet to cast for younger, better-educated and independent-minded voters, setting up attractive Web sites and using e-mail to connect to supporters.

These young independents, however, are precisely the kind of voters who often stay home if the weather is bad, or go mountain climbing instead on the Election Day holiday if skies are sunny. A low turnout would doom Roh's chances.

Whoever wins, analysts say, the new president's first mission will be to repair the 50-year alliance between Seoul and Washington, which suddenly seems fragile.

Copyright 2002 San Jose Mercury News

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