BAGHDAD, Iraq -- It's as hard to find a good word about President Bush on the streets of this hot, dusty city as it is to find a bad word about TBG, The Big Guy, Saddam Hussein.

TBG is used in conversations among Westerners so that Iraqis don't think their leader is being slandered when they hear his name mentioned. Most Iraqis aren't so discreet about America's Big Guy.

"You are from America?" asked a burly but good-humored cab-driver. "Welcome," he said, adding with a laugh, "Big Bush, Little Bush no good."

A statue of Saddam Hussein looks down as Iraqis stroll in Baghdad's Abatash Ramadan Square. (October 02, 2002) (Photo/Paul Kitagaki Jr)

And with his English used up and his passengers' Arabic non-existent, he contented himself with pointing out and naming various hotels along the street, laughing again when he jabbed a thick finger toward the El Rasheed Hotel and with Arabic and hand motions described the entryway of the building where an enormous mosaic spread out on the khaki-colored floor shows Big Bush with a painful-looking grimace, created when George Bush was president and fresh from the Allied victory over Iraq in the Persian Gulf War.

With the threat of war growing day by day, however, levity is not the norm for most conversations.

"If the United States invades Iraq, from that time on, all Muslims will hate the non-Muslim world," said Fermal Abdul, a Malaysian businessman, in town to attend a conference. "I believe it will start a war between all Muslims and all non-Muslims."

Abdul, who said he had tried other religions, including Hindu, Christian and Buddhism, before converting to Islam 25 years ago, said he believed Muslims are the "most patient" of peoples.

"After the United States invaded Afghanistan there was great anger throughout the Muslim world," he said. "Now, if there is an attack on Iraq, the Muslim world will explode."

When it was mentioned that not all non-Muslims agreed with George W. Bush's plans to use force against Iraq, Abdul said it didn't matter.

"It is sad, but I think that all the Muslim people will see is that they are white-skinned," he said. "I pity the white foreigner who just wants to visit any Muslim country if Bush invades Iraq, because they could be killed."

The strong linkage between "the Muslim world" and Iraq is not one that would have been made just a few years ago. Iraq historically, has been a strongly secular society, culturally and politically. Christians, Jews and Muslims have lived side by side.

After the creation of Israel in 1948, and the subsequent expulsion of millions of Palestinians, the attitude began to change. The continuing conflict in the Middle East and 12 years of sanctions have dramatically eroded that secularism, according to U.N. officials here.

Today boys and girls are placed in separate schools, Christians can no longer give their children Christian names; they must use the Arabic version. More women are dressing in the traditional Muslim style. Alcohol can no longer be consumed in public places.

"The Iraqi government appears to be forming alliances with the more religious portions of society," said one U.N. official.

He blamed sanctions for initiating a chain reaction of poverty and desperation, which encourages people to seek spiritual guidance, which gives the Muslim clergy more power -- leading to a more strongly Islamic society.

"The sanctions are eroding one of the most secular societies in the Middle East," he said. "The sanctions actually may be fostering terrorism."

Not all the news from Baghdad these days, however, is negative.

UNICEF figures show that the malnutrition rate is declining, the vaccination rate is going up and there have been improvements in communications, agriculture and the electrical supply.

There have been almost no improvements on the education front. A few schools have more books and most schools now have desks. But 8,000 schools still need repairs and the construction of some 5,000 schools is needed to meet the demands of the population.

Teachers, who work in classrooms with up to 67 students, still earn only $3 to $5 a month. And 90 to 95 percent of the people depend solely on the U.N. food supplied under the oil-for-food program..

Still, a U.N. official said, the dramatic decline in the economic and health conditions of the people has been "arrested," but not improved.

Another war, he said, could be "catastrophic" for the people of Iraq.

P-I foreign desk editor Larry Johnson and photographer Paul Kitagaki Jr. are in Iraq to report on the mood and conditions as the country is under threat of attack from the United States. They are among only a handful of Western journalists reporting from Iraq.

©1999-2002 Seattle Post-Intelligencer

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