THE
removal of President Saddam Hussein would open Iraq's rich new oilfields to Western
bidders and bring the prospect of lessening dependence on Saudi oil.
No other country offers such untapped oilfields whose exploitation could lessen
tensions over the Western presence in Saudi Arabia.

An Iraqi oil refinery is shown in this 2001 photo. REUTERS/Faleh Kheiber
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After Kuwait's liberation by US-led forces in 1991, America monopolized the
postwar deals, but the need to win international support for an invasion is unlikely
to see a repeat.
Russia, in particular, and France and China all permanent members of the United
Nations Security Council have high hopes of prizing promises of contracts in a
liberated Iraq from a United States that may need their political support.
President Bush has used the War on Terror to press his case for drilling in
a protected Arctic refuge, but predicted reserves in Alaska are dwarfed by the
oilwells of the Gulf. Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic and International
Studies in Washington, said that the issue for the US was as much the security
of the Gulf as access to particular oilfields.
"You are looking down the line to a world in 2020 when reliance on Gulf oil
will have more than doubled. The security of the Gulf is an absolutely critical
issue."
Gerald Butt, Gulf editor of the Middle East Economic Survey, said:
"The removal of Saddam is, in effect, the removal of the last threat to the free
flow of oil from the Gulf as a whole."
Iraq has oil reserves of 112billion barrels, second only to Saudi Arabia, which
has some 265billion barrels. Iraqi reserves are seven times those of the combined
UK and Norwegian sectors of the North Sea. But the prize for oil companies could
be even greater. Iraq estimates that its eventual reserves could be as high as
220billion barrels.
Three giant southern fields - Majnoon, West Qurna and Nahr Umar have the capacity
to produce as much as Kuwait. The first two could each equal Qatar's production
of 700,000 barrels a day. "There is nothing like it anywhere else in the world.
Its the big prize," Mr Butt said.
Extraction costs in these giant onshore fields, where development has been
held up by more than two decades of war and sanctions, would also be among the
lowest in the world. Provided that the US can ensure stability in a post-Saddam
Iraq, it would take five years, at most, to develop the oilfields and Iraq's prewar
capacity of three million barrels a day could reach seven or eight million, industry
experts said.
However, regime change in Baghdad will be of little value to international
oil companies unless it is followed by a stable Iraq with a strong central government.
Companies cant go in unless there is peace. To develop Majnoon, you need two to
three billion dollars and you don't invest that kind of money without stability,
one industry analyst said.
Copyright 2002 Times Newspapers Ltd.
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