But recent national polls suggest that the conventional wisdom may be wrong, as it often is.

Some Democrats have openly fretted that Nader could hurt Gore in such pivotal states as California, on the assumption that almost all Nader votes would have gone to Gore if the longtime consumer advocate weren't in the race.

But, unreliable as presidential horse-race polls can be in June, three polls show that Bush suffers slightly more than Gore when Nader and Reform Party aspirant Pat Buchanan are in the race.

Both of the major-party candidates lose votes to Buchanan and Nader, who has run considerably stronger than Buchanan in several polls. While Gore continues to trail Bush in most polls, the gap between them shrinks instead of widens, contrary to the Democrats' fears.

Minneapolis ad man Bill Hillsman, who produced Nader's campaign video and is mulling over joining his campaign, has noticed the phenomenon. He speculated that it could be a function of "the feeling that neither Bush or Gore are exciting people, so almost anyone who provides an alternative could get considered."

Although Nader has almost exclusively been portrayed as a lefty, Hillsman said the poll results suggest "a tremendous opportunity to go after some moderate Republicans, suburban voters, [Arizona Sen. John] McCain people."

Lisa Disch, a political scientist from the University of Minnesota who studies third parties, said Nader could capture voters who say they favor Bush by capitalizing on "the dissent that's out there in the Republican Party and tapping the McCain supporters." Nader's message about corporate responsibility and campaign finance could resonate among McCain fans, she said.

"He's got to target the independents, the floaters who aren't ideological," Disch said. "If Nader can make himself credible to independent thinkers, he'll force Bush and Gore to change their message, so they can hold on to the independents."

With little chance of winning, Nader's goal is to get on the ballot in at least 45 states and receive at least 5 percent of the national vote. If he does, the Green Party would be designated as a major party, making it eligible for federal campaign money. The Reform Party, currently in a state of disarray, is the only other third party to have won that status.

Four years ago, Nader made a Green Party bid in name only, spending $5,000 and winning about 1 percent of the national vote. This time, he has already campaigned in all 50 states, has a full-time campaign staff of 30 and hopes to raise $5 million.

In Minnesota, the Nader campaign has the backing of about 4,000 party members and an additional 1,000 potential voters who have said they will volunteer for the campaign, said Ken Pentel, the party's 1998 gubernatorial candidate who is chairing Nader's effort in the state.

Pentel said he's not surprised by Nader's apparent ability to draw votes from both the Democratic and Republican ranks, based on an analysis of the 1996 vote. "We found that for every 10 votes Ralph got, four came from the Republicans, six from the Democrats," he said. "A lot of what he stands for is truly conservative, when he talks about self-determination, frugality, not having a disposable society."

R.T. Rybak, a longtime Minneapolis DFL activist, recently and very publicly condemned Gore and said he would support Nader's candidacy. Rybak, an organizer of former Sen. Bill Bradley's failed presidential bid, said the widely shared assumption that Nader will merely hurt Gore "is a very simplistic idea that sounds good on the Washington-based talk shows. But it doesn't reflect the reality of the disaffected electorate."

While Rybak said he believes Nader can peel voters away from both Bush and Gore, "the real issue is who can pull the disaffecteds out of their chair. It's exactly like Ventura's race, being able to pull out people who were conservative, liberal, whatever."

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