An Ortega victory would be a blow for US foreign policy in central America. The leader of the National Liberation Sandinista Front (FSLN) needs 40 per cent of the vote or at least 35 per cent with a minimum margin of 5 per cent over the second-placed candidate to avoid a run-off.

Ever since Mr Ortega lost power to the centre-right Violeta de Chamorro in 1990, Washington has manoeuvred to avoid his re-election. During this year’s election campaign, Paul Trivelli, the US ambassador in Managua, has spoken out frequently to warn Nicaraguans of the perceived dangers of a Sandinista government.

Recently Mr Trivelli also warned of Mr Ortega’s growing friendship with Hugo Chávez, the oil-rich and anti-US Venezuelan president.

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Mr Trivelli even warned that an Ortega-led government would provoke significant changes to the currently healthy bilateral relationship.

“The whole gamut of the relationship that I talked about between the US and Nicaragua would definitely be re-examined – and not only by the executive or the State Department or the White House but by the US Congress,” he said.

On Sunday, however, the US government’s fears appeared to find little echo among voters. Thousands of electoral observers, including many sent by the European Union and the Organisation of American States, reported trouble-free voting.

In the afternoon, citizens lined up peacefully at a polling station in Granada, Nicaragua’s oldest city, while polling officials stained the right thumbs of those who had already voted.

Even so, a statement issued on Sunday by the US presidential delegation said that it had received reports of anomalies such as the premature closing of voting stations as well as slow counting. It concluded: “We are therefore not in a position at this time to make an overall judgment on the fairness and transparency of the process.”

On the campaign trail, Mr Ortega, who still wears his trademark moustache but has swapped his military fatigues for casual civilian clothes, has done his best to reassure Nicaraguans that his government would be different to the one he headed in the 1980s.

As part of his message of peace and national unity, Mr Ortega has ruled out the possibility of bringing back compulsory military service.

While his speeches have contained anti-US rhetoric – he has mentioned his desire to modify the Cafta trade pact – he has also defended private business and has ruled out a return to property confiscations.

© Copyright The Financial Times Ltd 2006

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