THE center of gravity in the UN Security Council appeared to be moving significantly towards Britain and the United States last night after Hans Blix’s report and the passionate debate that followed.

Weeks of intense and often menacing diplomacy seemed to be paying off after statements before the Council, and private remarks from officials, suggested that the six waverers were likely to support the Anglo-American “war resolution”.

Clumsy diplomacy, growing anti-war sentiment around the world and Iraq’s improved co-operation with UN weapons inspectors had all combined to make Britain and America’s job more difficult.

However, diplomats and officials from the countries concerned said yesterday that Angola, Cameroon, Chile, Guinea, Mexico and Pakistan would be prepared to support a resolution in the right circumstances.

Much depended on the impact of Dr Blix’s report and the new, reworded British resolution, which sets a “last- chance” deadline of March 17. None of the six is expected to reveal its position before a vote is taken, but realpolitik may be the decisive factor.

America, Britain, Spain and Bulgaria need the support of at least five more countries to pass the resolution. They are opposed by France, Russia, Germany, China and Syria. Although France, Russia and China are permanent Security Council members with veto powers, a majority vote would still be a powerful endorsement of Washington’s case.

Western diplomats are confident that all three African members of the Council will now vote in favor of the resolution rather than risk the loss of substantial trade, aid packages and security guarantees.

One lever being used against Guinea and Cameroon is the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which gives preferential access to US markets for African exporters. AGOA requires beneficiaries “not to engage in activities that undermine US national security or foreign policy interests”. Angola has not yet been deemed eligible for AGOA’s trade benefits because of its record on human rights abuses and corruption, but inclusion in the scheme is being offered as a reward for its compliance on the Iraq issue.

Angola receives millions of dollars a year in US assistance. Guinean troops are being trained in border defense operations against Liberia by US instructors, while Cameroon, which also takes part in the US military training program, is heavily reliant on IMF and World Bank support.

Officially, the three African countries have indicated their support for a “peaceful resolution” of the Iraq crisis.

Pakistan’s relationship with America is even more critical to its economy and security. President Musharraf and key members of his leadership are seen as some of the US’s closest South Asia allies.

The Foreign Ministers of Mexico and Chile openly criticized Iraq for non-co-operation yesterday.

Polls suggest that 90 per cent of Mexicans favor giving the UN weapons inspectors more time to do their job, but economic reality may prevail. Mexico relies on the US market for 80 per cent of its exports.

Copyright 2003 Times Newspapers Ltd

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