The word from the White House was that they had expected this all along. The offer from Iraq to re-admit weapons inspectors was "no surprise", according to the usual, anonymous, administration sources in their early morning response yesterday.

Much of the US media took them at their word: one of the network breakfast shows decided it was such a mundane development that its headline was about the death sentence passed on a California child killer.

There followed a period of strange silence, not just from George Bush but from opposition politicians. In truth, everyone was trying to digest the implications.

The president did appear in the White House rose garden after breakfast, but only to mark the 215th anniversary of the signing of the US constitution and lecture the country's schoolchildren on the importance of learning history. As his own presidency has shown most dramatically, this might include a lesson on expecting the unexpected.

If Mr Bush really had anticipated this, he would have handled things a little differently. For four and a half days, since his masterful speech last Thursday, he has dominated the global diplomatic agenda in a manner he has not managed since this time last year, in the days after the September 11 attacks.

Suddenly, with what Colin Powell dismissively described as just "a one and a quarter page letter", the picture has changed yet again, in a manner that must inevitably delay the administration's plan to topple Saddam Hussein - perhaps only for days if Iraq should suddenly reveal its ifs and buts, but perhaps indefinitely.

In one sense, it is a triumph for the president, since this would never have happened if he had responded to his critics and adopted a softer line. On the other hand, it is deeply frustrating.

"I believe they did expect an offer from Saddam over the inspectors, but not this fast, and not this pure," said Judith Kipper of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "There are so many questions now. It has become a very, very fluid situation."

Pro-war television pundits were indignant. "We've got to get real here. Saddam is just trying to buy time," said Marc Ginsberg, a former ambassador to Morocco, on Fox News. MSNBC's armchair general, former Marine commander Bernard Trainor, said President Saddam was up to "his old tricks" and described the process as "a kabuki dance".

One White House source, meanwhile, said President Saddam was playing "rope-a-dope with the world". The early indications were that the build-up of forces in the region would be unaffected, and might even be hastened.

However, the president's decision to go via the security council, which, until Monday, seemed like a masterstroke, means it is the UN and not the administration that must now decide the pace of events. The council was holding a formal meeting yesterday - but the main business under discussion was the affairs of Burundi. The Republicans also appeared to have lost control of the domestic agenda, seven weeks before midterm elections that will resolve the balance of power on Capitol Hill for the rest of the president's first term. The Democrats at first refrained from saying anything, and most planned to wait until after the congressional leadership's regular weekly meeting with the president today.

But Iraq's offer might give them the opportunity to delay the vote authorizing the use of force until after the elections - which they are desperate to do if they can get away with it politically. At the very least they might get Iraq out of the headlines to allow them the chance to talk about the economy, corporate greed and other more fertile subjects.

"This letter emphasizes why Dick Cheney didn't want to go to the UN," said Ivo Daalder of the Brookings Institution. "Now you start to dither and dicker about how many inspections are enough. That's the road the White House opened up with Bush's speech, however much they may regret it now.

"It kicks the can down the road until Saddam makes his first misstep. Unless and until he does, you're not going to get any consensus internationally or domestically for going to war," Mr Daalder said.

"The administration can talk about reparations for the Kuwaitis, treatment of Iraqi minorities, prisoners of war, and all the other UN resolutions Saddam is flouting. But it all falls a little flat. These will not provide a casus belli in the eyes of the world."

© Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002

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