France, solid behind America and fed up with terrorism, is ready to fight again. But Frenchmen have learned the hard way that when you go to battle for a principle, it is important to win.

From here, the picture is clear. Half of Afghanistan straddles mountains over a mile high. Winter is coming. And the allies' quarry is an elusive shadow of a man who survived in tunnels under the noses of elite Soviet troops.

Europeans remember Britain's Afghan humiliation last century, well before the recent war that eroded the Soviet Union's last underpinnings. On this side of the Atlantic, many fear that Americans won't take history to heart.

Charles de Gaulle warned John F. Kennedy not repeat France's mistake in Vietnam. Now President Jacques Chirac, with more subtlety but equal vigor, has urged President Bush to reflect carefully on his options.

Europe heard with trepidation remarks on Thursday by U.S. Army Secretary Thomas E. White, that the Pentagon is ready to conduct ``sustained land combat operations'' as part of its promised war against terrorism.

Afghans themselves have already bombed their country back to the stone age. Almost anything worth protecting is underground. The most radical fighters have little to lose: death in noble battle, to many, is a ride to paradise.

The down side is harrowing. If television footage shows Americans pursuing what Bush has already termed a ``crusade'' on Islamic ground, sympathy for the calamity of Sept. 11 could slowly sour into something else.

Muslims today number 1 billion across the world. The overwhelmingly majority abhors terror tactics which blackens their image and, in the view of most, run counter to the Prophet Muhammed's Holy Quran.

But many Muslims are not certain how to assess a fast-changing world, with bubbling conflict in the Middle East, in South Asia, in North Africa and in the immigrant neighborhoods surrounding large European cities.

An extremist fringe is hoping for, at the least, a humiliating brier patch and, at worst, an ignominious retreat from an unwinnable quagmire which could shift the real balance of global power.

If Washington and its allies can exact punishment on terrorist cells, they stand a good chance of stabilizing the balance among Muslims, Christians and everyone else in a world badly in need of such mutual respect.

At the same time, if they kill yet more bystanders and miss their mark, they are likely to do the opposite.

This is what Frenchmen mean by ``un piege.'' In their view, Osama Bin Laden figured this out masterfully. His terrible blow was designed to goad Americans into striking out blindly, compounding damage at a fearful rate.

The daily Le Monde, on Thursday, carried a front-page essay by Gilles Kepel, a respected Arab world specialist at the Institute for Political Studies in Paris. It was entitled, ``Le Piege.''

Bin Laden pursues a faster track version than classic terrorism, Kepel argues. He is skipping the long, hard work of winning popular sympathy. Instead, he seeks the spontaneous emotional reaction of worked-up crowds.

To achieve this, Kepel notes, bin Laden needs to draw the United States and its allies into an Afghan quagmire, with Muslim civilian casualties steadily mounting.

``Awaiting an offensive, (Taliban) Mullah Omar is calling for the solidarity of all Muslims, as Saddam Hussein did in 1991, and he aims for total conflagration,'' he wrote. ``This is where the conflict's destiny will play out.''

Islamic governments - even Iran and Sudan - have expressed a will to isolate the Taliban, he noted, but broad populations have yet to make up their minds. Here, he warns, is that trap.

``It remains to convince the people concerned that the eradication of talibans and their protege is the way to a more just and unified world,'' Kepel concluded, ``and not a clash of civilizations on which is based on apocalyptic terrorism.''

In one way or another, this is what most European strategists are saying, especially in France and in Britain where old war museums burst with lessons to be learned.

Call it war if you have to, they say, although many prefer a less emotive term. But be sure at the start you can do what you plan. Once begun, this will not be a clash in which any side can simply declare victory and go home.

Copyright © 2001 The Associated Press

###