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For Greece, It's Austerity -- or Else
"Bankruptcy for Greece would be hell."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel continue their push for Greece to accept further austerity measures in order to receive bailout funds and warned that Greece was "running out of time" to accept the deal presented to them. Today Merkel told Greece that it needed to make up its mind on taking the reform package while Greek unions announced a nationwide strike for tomorrow in protest of the austerity measures.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy welcomes German Chancellor Angela Merkel upon her arrival for a joint Franco-German cabinet session at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Monday February 6. (AFP Photo/Lionel Bonaventure) Agence France-Presse reports:
A sharp warning by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel that it was time for Greece to fulfil its undertakings and would not get any fresh aid unless it did highlighted a more uncompromising tone.
And Reuters adds:
German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Greece on Monday to make up its mind fast on accepting the painful terms for a new EU/IMF bailout, but the country's political leaders responded by delaying their decision for yet another day.
Failure to strike a deal to secure the 130 billion euro ($170 billion) rescue - much of which Germany will fund - risks pushing Athens into a chaotic debt default which could threaten its future in the euro zone.
Speaking in Paris, Merkel expressed the exasperation spreading among euro zone leaders at seemingly endless wrangling in Athens that has yet to produce a definitive acceptance of the austerity and reform conditions demanded by the lenders.
"I honestly can't understand how additional days will help. Time is of the essence. A lot is at stake for the entire euro zone," she told a news conference with President Nicolas Sarkozy.
But leaders of the three parties in the coalition government appeared to need at least one additional day.
The Guardian blog following the Eurocrisis looks at the repurcusions of Greece not accepting the bailout terms and therefore going bankrupt:
What would actually happen to the country if Greece does go bust?
That's what the country's technocrat prime minister Lucas Papademos is finding out, as the various meetings about its debt and austerity measures drag on. Papademos has asked experts at Athens' finance ministry to compile a detailed analysis of what bankruptcy would entail. Our correspondent Helena Smith says:
The verdict, according to Greek officials, is that it will make Argentina "look like a picnic in comparision." What we are experiencing now with all the austerity is actually a form of paradise. Bankruptcy for Greece would be hell."
Papademos, a macro-economist, intends to present the report at the meeting (we all hope) he will finally hold tomorrow with the three party chiefs backing his coalition.
Presumably to push them into finally backing the proposals.
In an interview with Germany's Der Spiegel, Luxembourg Prime Minister and head of the Euro Group Jean-Claude Juncker also pushed the need for Greece to accept the economic reforms, including privatizations, or head towards bankruptcy.
Der Spiegel: But they're still not doing enough. The Greeks were supposed to raise €50 billion by privatizing state assets. But now Athens has acknowledged that this figure was just plucked out of the air. How do you explain that to EU citizens?
Jean-Claude Juncker: I'm currently engaged in explaining to the EU's citizens the improvements that have been made in Greece. However, when it comes to the issue of privatization, I prefer to address the government in Athens because in this respect it is falling considerably short of what was agreed. Greece has to realize that we're not going to let up on the privatization issue.
SkyNews reports that Greece's two major unions have called for a 24-hour strike on Tuesday in response to the austerity push:
"If these measures are adopted and the government does in fact cave into pressure," warned Thanos Vassilopoulous of Greece’s biggest labour union, GSEE, "then workers will be faced with an armageddon."
"We must resist. We must revolt."
GSEE and Adedy, the civil servants union, have called for a 24-hour nationwide strike on Tuesday, warning of heightened strike action in response to added austerity.
The BBC notes this on weekend developments:
Talks on Sunday between Greek PM Lucas Papademos and the leaders of his three-party coalition over new austerity measures ended without full agreement.
The measures include:
- Further government spending cuts equal to 1.5% of GDP
- Re-capitalisation of Greek banks - whilst retaining their independence
- Reducing labour costs, including a cut in the minimum wage and holiday bonuses
- Further civil service job cuts
- Cuts to the size of pension programmes
On Sunday, the prime minister's office said that some agreement had been reached in some areas. But there were disagreements over the size of job cuts, cuts to the minimum wage, pension cuts and the ending of a so-called 13th or 14th month's pay as a holiday bonus.
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44 Comments so far
Show AllIn the case of the biggest revolution of all, the Soviet Revolution, although they repudiated the imperial debt, the Soviets paid up on many specific bonds from 1921 on. For their general debt that they incurred with Czar bonds in the late 19th century, most of that was sold to British and French households and the Soviet government paid off on the English bonds in 1986 and some of the French bonds in 1996. Many French bond holders are still litigating against Russia. The debt did not go away.
Repudiation of debt is something a country can do, but it doesn't go away in the books of the creditors so it means that the creditors won't lend money any longer till the original debt is paid even if it is almost a century later.
If Greece were to do this, they would face a few immediate consequences. First they would have to invent value to pay bills. You can do that by taxing, borrowing or printing money. If they increase taxes as they have tried, they are going to get people in the streets. They wouldn't have anyone to borrow from so that is out and if they printed money to pay bills, they are increasing inflation.
In the case of Argentina, they made an offer of 65% discount to investors and paid off most debt rather than negating per se. Most investors took that deal but some held out and because of those hold outs, Argentina still has problems raising debt which limits how much the government can participate in growth in Argentina.
Repudiation is a route, but it is not the silver bullet that some think it is.
If Greece repudiated debt, it would be one harvest away from starvation literally. The government would have no international options at that point.
Best way is to negotiate and to force the creditors to retire existing debt at a discount. If you think the austerity of the EU now is bad, then Greece with no way to get money in an emergency would be WAY worse...
I think finance should be treated like a public utility and done by the government. Why lend to central banks at a low rate then have them lend back to us at a higher rate? Why use them to lend to the productive economy? Do we need private interests there, skimming off some for themselves without earning it (any more than the government would at least)? Are these damn private banks needed? Maybe, maybe not, but it would make sense to at least have the conversation.
What needs to be done is to revive the drachma and use it for all transactions not involving foreign companies. That would be taxes, utilities (at least in part), most food, rent, hospital care and so on. Euros gained from the tourist trade must be obtained by the government to get necessities from outside. Workers would have to be paid in drachmas--at least until things stabilized. Argentina used plenty of complementary currencies until it got back on its feet. That is what Greece must do.
It is attempting to do without violence what countries did in the past through war, and they call it a bailout. It is a bailout of the financial capitalists, and nothing else.
I've been watching events unfold in Greece for some time now. Greece seems to me a bellweather of things to come. I look at the smiling, smug and self-satisfied faces of Merkel and Sarkozy and an instantaneous intuitive reaction against wells up.
Call their bluff, citizens of Greece. Let the chips fall where they may. Perhaps some will fall on the heads of the one percent.
Probably most will fall on our heads - but at least we'll be off our knees.
Manysummits
=======canardtahiti
My ancestors on my father's side were from the area of the Sarthe River in France, as I understand it. I follow the fortunes of France as time permits, and I was sad to see Sarkozy elected.
I hope you are right, and I hope France will reclaim France, as I hope Greece will become Greece again.
These trends wherein bigger is always better are false even from an evolutionary perspective. Diversity is the Way of Nature.
Manysummits
========We are at a crossroads. It would be a real shame if years from now people looked back at the opportunity we had to break away from neoliberalism and we chose not to or were scared away. If we don't break away we are handing the 21st century over to the damn financial capitalists and the rentier class.
As published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
http://michael-hudson.com/2012/01/banking-wasnt-meant-to-be-like-this/
You can't compare Iceland and Greece: Iceland isn't in the Eurozone but still has its own currency; it isn't even in the EU, although it wants to be.
Pesky democracy, I mean 'endless wrangling,' getting in the way of following orders, I mean 'conditions set by lenders.'