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Fukushima Radiation Risks "Severely Underestimated": Greenpeace
TOKYO -- Greenpeace today renewed its demand for the Japanese government to keep its nuclear reactors offline as simulation maps of potential accidents at Japan’s nuclear plants - used in the development of nuclear emergency response efforts - "are completely inadequate, and have not been updated since the Fukushima disaster."
Following a Greenpeace freedom of information request on November 25, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) released SPEEDI simulations of the radioactive contamination spread from all nuclear plants in Japan. Greenpeace said these maps show only extremely low releases of radioactivity over a 10km area around the plants in the event of meltdown, making any emergency response plan based on them totally insufficient should another severe disaster like the Fukushima Daiichi crisis occur.
“The Fukushima Daiichi emergency response effort was slow, chaotic and insufficient, and it appears the Government has learned nothing from it so far,” said Junichi Sato, Greenpeace Japan Executive Director. (photo: SandoCap)
The simulations released under FOI to Greenpeace were made to support emergency preparedness drills of local and central government authorities. They calculate the concentration of radioactivity in the air, contamination on the ground and dose to the population within a range of 10km. Based on these maps, drills on evacuation or sheltering of the population, or distribution of iodine pills are organized.
“The simulation of radioactive releases from the Ohi reactor for example, is scandalously inadequate. It foresees a radiation release in the order of 10,000 times less severe than what could happen during a major incident,” said Jan Vande Putte, Greenpeace International Nuclear Campaigner. “Similar over-optimistic scenarios have been used for reactors all over Japan. Hoping for the best is absolutely the wrong way to devise an emergency response plan.”
A major incident in this case is based on a 15% release of iodine from the core of the reactor, which is still not a worst-case scenario. Nuclear safety authorities from the United States (NRC, Nureg-1150, 1990) and Germany (SSK, Heft 37, 2003) have calculated that under the worst-case conditions, even a release between 50% and 90% of all iodine is possible, though with a lower probability.
Greenpeace met with officials from MEXT and the SPEEDI program today, and they confirmed that the current simulations are limited to low-level releases, and that the system needed upgrading to cover larger releases and wider areas beyond 10km from the plants.
“The Fukushima Daiichi emergency response effort was slow, chaotic and insufficient, and it appears the Government has learned nothing from it so far,” said Junichi Sato, Greenpeace Japan Executive Director.
“These maps show that there is a strong risk of reactor restarts being pushed through without a proper, science-based assessment on the real risks being conducted, and without proper precautions being taken to protect the communities around the plants.”
Greenpeace is demanding that the Japanese government uses SPEEDI for what it was developed for, and run worst-case scenario simulations for all nuclear plants in Japan so there is a clear understand what effect a Fukushima Daiichi-type incident at other plants around Japan could have.
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9 Comments so far
Show AllA lot of people will be dying or sick because all the powerful people had on their rose colored glasses and their denial hats. And a lot of people believed the bs coming out of the "experts" mouths. Pathetic that our society still functions this way. It really is time for the smarter people to take over.
Another strange headline. Maybe the part of the article which mentions the Fukushima risk being "severely underestimated" was cut out. I can't find it.
At any rate, here's an interesting recent development from Fukushima:
Japan’s science ministry says 8 per cent of the country’s surface area has been contaminated by radiation from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant.
It says more than 30,000 square kilometres of the country has been blanketed by radioactive cesium.
Radiation Covers 8% of Japan
Everyone should open the link posted by ~Aleph Null~.. A very informative, inportant and current article.
Hi ~Stonepig~,, good comments.. But in the future, it is tradition here at CD, that we leave the first comment block open on nuker articles for ~Funny Finston~.
Wayne,
What the industry doesn't want us to know is that the "Ministry of Education" is sort of like the "Ministry of Truth" in 1984. Repeatedly they have released only reports that make the situation seem not so bad, and based on bogus preliminary assumptions. The rest is shredded and dropped down "The Memory Hole." For the story on the rest of the missing 167 maps and researchers resigning in protest see:
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/
In the Installment 11, we learned that the Ministry of Education knew exactly where to look for high radiation because it had SPEEDI simulation result, but it didn't bother to tell anyone about the radiation levels when the information would have made the difference. In the Installment 12, we learned that it was a surprise for the Ministry of Education when the PM's Office didn't follow the agreed-upon protocol to use SPEEDI and unilaterally issued an evacuation order in concentric circles.
In the Installment 13, we'll learn how the NISA was on the verge of coming up with the "correct" evacuation map that was not in concentric circles.
研究者の辞表（１３）送られなかった167枚
Resignation of a Researcher (13) 167 simulation maps that were never sent
SPEEDIの予測データはどう流れたのだろうか。（＝上地兼太郎朝日新聞記者）
How was the SPEEDI simulation data shared? (reporting by Kentaro Uechi)
震災から約4時間後の3月11日午後7時3分、国は原子力緊急事態宣言を出す。首相官邸に原子力災害対策本部ができた。
7:03PM on March 11, about 4 hours after the earthquake/tsunami. The national government declared nuclear emergency. The Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters was set up in the Prime Minister's Official Residence.
経済産業省の原子力安全・保安院は、対策本部の事務局を担う一方、同省別館3階に緊急時対応センター（ＥＲＣ）を立ち上げた。他省庁からも人がかき集められた。
The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) under the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry acted as the secretariat of the Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters. But at the same time, it also set up the Emergency Response Center (ERC) on the 3rd floor of the annex building of the Ministry. People from other ministries were also called in.
SPEEDIの予測は本来、文部科学省が原子力安全技術センターを使って1時間ごとに行う。出来た予測図は保安院にも送られるが、保安院は独自の予測も出そうとした。それに向け、同日夜には同センターのオペレーターをＥＲＣに入れた。
SPEEDI simulation is normally done every hour by the Nuclear Safety Technology Center under the direction of the Ministry of Education and Science. The simulation map is sent to NISA. But NISA wanted to do its own simulation, and invited an operator from the Nuclear Safety Technology Center to its ERC.
保安院が独自で行った1回目のSPEEDI予測は午後9時12分に出た。翌12日午前3時半に福島第一原発2号機でベント（排気）をした場合、放射性物質はどう拡散するかという予測だ。放射性物質は南東の太平洋へ飛ぶ結果が出た。
The 1st SPEEDI simulation result by NISA came out at 9:12PM. The simulation was about how radioactive materials would disperse if the vent was done on Reactor 2 of Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant at 3AM on March 12. The result showed that radioactive materials would be dispersed southeast over the Pacific Ocean.
12日午前1時12分に2回目の予測。今度は同時刻に1号機のベントを仮定した。これも海へ拡散していた。保安院は16日までに45回173枚の独自予測をはじき出した。
The 2nd simulation result by NISA was out at 1:12AM on March 12. This time, the assumption was the vent of Reactor 1 at 3AM. Again, radioactive materials would disperse over the ocean. By March 16, NISA would create its own 173 maps in 45 simulations.
保安院の予測の特徴は、様々な情報を集めて放射性物質の放出量を推測したことだ。放出量を1ベクレルと仮定した文部科学省に比べ、予測の精度は高かった。
What was unique about NISA's simulations was that they estimated the amount of radioactive materials that would be released, using various data. Unlike the simulations done by the Ministry of Education that used the unit emission (1 becquerels/hr), the accuracy of the NISA simulations was much higher.
官邸の地下には、各省実働部隊が詰めるオペレーションルームがある。保安院は課長補佐以下の職員数人をそこに出していた。保安院から予測図を受け取る専用端末も備（そな）えられていた。
There was an operation room in the basement of the Prime Minister's Official Residence where the working groups from various ministries were stationed. NISA had several officials (assistant manager class) there. The room was equipped with the dedicated terminal to receive the simulation maps from NISA.
官邸5階には首相の管直人ら災害対策本部の中枢が陣取っている。避難区域を決めたのはこの中枢であり、その決定にはSPEEDIの情報を参考にすることになっている。ということは、予測図は専用端末を経て５階まで運ばれていなければならなかった。しかし・・・。
The core members of the Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters including Prime Minister Naoto Kan remained on the 5th floor of the PM's Official Residence. It was this core members who decided the evacuation zone, and that decision was to be based on the SPEEDI information. Which means the simulation maps should have been received at the terminal [in the basement] and then carried to the 5th floor. But...
オペレーションルームの専用端末に送られたのは１，２回目の予測図だけ。保安院が独自で行ったSPEEDI予測のうち、４３回１６７枚はＥＲＣ内で止まっていた。
Only the 1st and the 2nd simulation maps were sent to the dedicated terminal in the operation room. Of all SPEEDI simulations that NISA did on its own, 167 maps from 43 simulations remained at [NISA's] ERC.
TJ
I suppose the movers and shakers with seemingly limitless resources are certain they and their's will be safely tucked away in state-of-the-art bunkers or settled comfortably into their South American hideaway estates (or wherever has no extradition laws and is farthest away from any fallout) to escape the devastations they unleash on the masses.
Although, it doesn't seem that there is any real awareness by world leaders and the many toxic-substance producers that the entire planet is EVERYBODY'S backyard.
Japan's Emergency Plan for a Severe Nuclear Incident: Lie about current situation, release limited information about the situation three months ago, release accurate information only when it will not damage the reputation of the nuclear industry or anyone at a high level responsible for the disaster.
Other actions as necessary to downplay the severity of the incident and show the situation is under control.
U.S. Emergency Plan for a Severe Nuclear Incident (See Japanese Plan).
Great last line, CTRL. You read my mind.
No nuclear power plant in the world has an effective disaster plan.
Otherwise, they would have put it in place at Fukushima and demonstrated to the world that the nuclear industry has it's act together.
Recall that Tepco wanted to give Fukushima to the government after the meltdowns.
Notice all the Tepco executives and shareholders volunteering to help clean up the mess at Fukushima?
Here are a few comments from the article in the link Aleph Null posted above here.. There are also links within the link with important imformation about the health risks of radioactive cessium.
("The dose limits for practices are intended to ensure that no individual is committed to unacceptable risk due to radiation exposure. For the public the limit is 1 mSv in a year, or in special circumstances up to 5 mSv in a single year provided that the average does over five consecutive years does not exceed 1 mSv per year.")
II sometimes become a bit confused when reading these article when one expert on the subject says no levels of cessium are safe and another expert will say things like this following comment from the article.
From the article,,, (" It is true that people do not spend all of their time outdoors and the additional cancer rates at these levels are quite small.").
The additional cancer rates are "quite small",,, if you stay in the house... Yeah, sure,,, don't go outside and don't inhale any cessium.