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Global Warming Study Finds No Grounds for Climate Skeptics' Concerns
Independent investigation of the key issues skeptics claim can skew global warming figures reports that they have no real effect
Climate sceptics' criticisms of the evidence for global warming make no difference to the emerging picture of a warming world, according to the most comprehensive, independent review of historical temperature records to date.
Scientists at the University of California, Berkeley, investigated several key issues that sceptics claim can skew global warming figures and found they had no meaningful effect on world temperature trends.
Researchers at the Berkeley Earth project compiled more than a billion temperature records dating back to the 1800s from 15 sources around the world and found that the average global land temperature has risen by around 1C since the mid-1950s.
This figure agrees with the estimate of global warming arrived at by major groups that maintain official records on the world's climate, including Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), and the Met Office's Hadley Centre, with the University of East Anglia, in the UK.
"My hope is that this will win over those people who are properly sceptical," Richard Muller, a physicist and head of the Berkeley Earth project, told the Guardian.
"Some people lump the properly sceptical in with the deniers and that makes it easy to dismiss them, because the deniers pay no attention to science. But there have been people out there who have raised legitimate issues," he said.
In the Berkeley Earth project, Muller sought to cool the debate over climate change by creating the world's largest open database of temperature records, with the aim of producing a transparent and independent assessment of global warming.
The initial reluctance of government groups to release all their methods and data, and the fiasco over emails from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit in 2009, gave the project added impetus.
The team, which includes Saul Perlmutter, joint winner of this year's Nobel Prize in Physics for the discovery that the universe is expanding at an increasing rate, has submitted four papers to the journal Geophysical Research Letters that describe their work to date.
Going public with results before they are peer-reviewed is not standard practice, but Muller said the decision to circulate the papers before publication was part of a long-standing academic tradition of sanity-checking results with colleagues. "We will get much more feedback from making these papers public before publication," he said.
Climate sceptics have criticised official global warming figures on the grounds that many temperature stations are poor quality, based largely in cities, and that data are tweaked by hand. However, the Berkeley study found that the so-called urban heat island effect, which makes cities warmer than surrounding rural areas, is locally large and real, but does not contribute significantly to average land temperature rises. This is because urban regions make up less than 1% of the Earth's land area.
And while stations considered "poor" might be less accurate, they recorded the same average warming trend.
"We have looked at these issues in a straightforward, transparent way, and based on that, I would expect legitimate sceptics to feel their issues have been addressed," Muller said.
Nevertheless, one prominent US climate sceptic, Anthony Watts, claimed to have identified a "basic procedural error" concerning time periods used in the research, and urged the authors to revise the paper.
Jim Hansen, head of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told the Guardian he had not read the research papers but was glad Muller was looking at the issue, describing him as "a top-notch physicist".
"It should help inform those who have honest scepticism about global warming," said Hansen. "Of course, presuming that he basically confirms what we have been reporting, the deniers will then decide that he is a crook or has some ulterior motive. As I have discussed in the past, the deniers, or contrarians, if you will, do not act as scientists, but rather as lawyers. As soon as they see evidence against their client (the fossil fuel industry and those people making money off business-as-usual), they trash that evidence and bring forth whatever tidbits they can find to confuse the judge and jury."
Peter Thorne at the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites in North Carolina and chair of the International Surface Temperature Initiative, said: "This takes a very distinct approach to the problem and comes up with the same answer, and that builds confidence that pre-existing estimates are in the right ballpark. There is very substantial value in having multiple groups looking at the same problem in different ways.
"Openness and transparency is a must, particularly now with climate change being so politicised, but more to the point, with the huge socioeconomic decisions that rest on it."
Phil Jones, the director of the Climatic Research Unit at UEA who was at the centre of the Climategate incident, said: "I look forward to reading the finalised paper once it has been reviewed and published. These initial findings are very encouraging and echo our own results and our conclusion that the impact of urban heat islands on the overall global temperature is minimal."
Some scientists were critical of the project and Muller's decision to release the papers before they had been peer reviewed. Peter Cox, professor of climate system dynamics at Exeter University said: "These studies seem to confirm the global warming estimated from the existing datasets, which is pleasing but not exactly a surprise to those of us who know how carefully the existing datasets are put together.
"It is surprising, however, that the authors believe that this news is so significant that they can't wait for peer review, especially when their conclusions aren't exactly revolutionary."
The Berkeley Earth project has been attacked by some climate bloggers, who point out that one of the funders is linked to Koch Industries, a company Greenpeace called a "financial kingpin of climate science denial".
Muller points out the project is organised under the auspices of Novim, a Santa Barbara-based nonprofit organisation that uses science to find answers to the most pressing issues facing society and to publish them "without advocacy or agenda".
Other donors include the Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research (funded by Bill Gates), and the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley Lab. The next phase of the project will focus on warming trends in the oceans.
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70 Comments so far
Show AllAgan; you totally ignore the very recent findings that methane has caused one third of the planet's temperature rise... And you now are ignoring scientists you have quoted that state if only 2% of the Arctic's methane should release quickly,within a thre to five year period it would cause an out of control global warming and nothing we could then do to reverse it... Nothing.
So an ice free Arctic by 2015 or 2016, with a massive amounf of permafost melted sure does seem to be a lot more serious to me than it does to you... I have already posted ample links for scientists comments to back up my opinions.. You just continue to stick with James Hansen's proposals which are not anywhere near good enough... You are just hoping. Let us all (hope) you are correct. .
Honestly, this finding that methane has caused about a third of the planet's temperature rise may have been recently written up, but it's not news. Once again, take a look at the NOAA ESRL global methane data.
This chart plots simple monitoring of atmospheric methane in ppb - no fancy formulas or adjustments, just measurement at Mauna Loa. The current level is 1820 ppb, or 1.82 ppm. The 20-year global warming potential of methane is 72 (as determined by the last IPCC report in 2007). 1.82 times 72 = 131, almost exactly one third of current CO2 at 392 ppm.
So what? The reason I ignore it when you point this out is because it has no bearing on the discussion. Everyone has known that methane forcing is around one third of CO2 forcing for years. Assessing the probability of runaway climate change relates to future natural sources of greenhouse gases (especially methane), not past anthropogenic sources.
The current proportion of CH4 and CO2 forcings does shed light on the significance of Shakova's observation that a 1% release of ESAS methane could quadruple atmospheric CH4 - roughly doubling current greenhouse gas forcing, which would be catastrophic. But neither of us have encountered the scientific opinion that this 1% release would likely result from an absence of September sea ice in the Arctic.
You're free to go out on a ledge beyond what the science says, but it does not enhance your credibility with anyone. Ultimately, Aleph Null's and Wayne's personal opinions won't buy either of us a cup of stale coffee.
It is new... For years the scientists computer modeling showed methane in the atmosphere caused (*a sixth*) of the temperature rise. not (*a third*) of the temperature rise, but again you are ignoring that.
In addition; scientists have now determined that the computer modeling does not reflect the true amount of methane in the atmosphere and they do not show the amount of methane actually releasing... Again; read the scientific articles in the links I posted and argue with those not with me. .
Bafflingly, you confuse a measuring device with a model. It's like you're trying to argue with what the thermometer says.
You don't need a model to measure the level of atmospheric methane. No scientist anywhere disputes the NOAA ESRL measurements of atmospheric methane levels, which depend on sensitive instruments, not computer models.
You wrote,,,, ("Everyone has known that methane forcing is around one third of CO2 forcing for years.")
That is not the point of the newly discovered science... Top scientists have recently determined that atmospheric methane has caused the planet's (*temperature rise*) to be (a third),,, NOT a (sixth),,, as ALL of the scientists computer models have shown. That includes Dr. James Hansen's and his teams computer models, ALL climate compute rmodels.
And you say, " that is not new scienece, only just recently published."..You say, "everyone has known that new science for years.".... Really? __ Well if they knew that science for many years; why have their computer models not shown that methane has caused (*a third*) of the "temperature rise",,, instead of only (*a sixth*) of the planet's temperature rise? __ Sorry, your arguments there are seriously flawed.
You agree with Shakova and other scientists that if only a fraction, from 1 to 2 % of the Arctic's methane releases it will be catastrophic... But you don't believe as the Arctic's perenial sea ice rapidly melts off, that the frozen permafrost beneath the ocean floor will melt, allowing up to a trillion+ tons of methane to release... I find that to be very strange reasoning and conclusions for an intelligent person such as you are... The articles I have posted and have quoted here say your opinion about that serious issue are very incorrect.
Quite honestly, I don't care if you wish to disagree with their opinions, that is your perogative... My perogative is to agree with those scientists and again state your contention that the (only) thing we have to do is to impliment Dr. Hansen's proposals.
After all this bloviating, my impression is that you still do not understand that there is an accurate record of global atmospheric methane levels maintained by the Earth Science Research Lab of NOAA - a record based on sensitive measurements not computer models.
You wrote,,, ("my impression is that you still do not understand that there is an accurate record of global atmospheric methane levels maintained by the Earth Science Research Lab of NOAA.")
I understnd that the NOAA reopot is (not accurate), my understanding is based entrely upon (new science) research by some of out top scientists... My strong and valid impression is you don't agree with them..... I do.
You (*again ignored*) the fact,, that new science research has scientifically established methane has increased the planet's temperature (by a third,,,, not a sixth) and therefore all climate models are innacurte because of that serious flaw in all climate modeling.
From that same article, some of our top scientists also have scientifically determined that the manner in which the scientists have determined the atmospheric methane level is (not accurate) and does not give a true picture of the atmospheric methane effect on Earth's temperature.
Those same scientists have determined that the ture amount of methane releasing is not accurate... It is far, far worse than was believed and has been computed in scientists climate modeling... You still fail to understand or grasp the meaning of that new found scientific research... You wish to claim it is not new found science.
You choose to ignore that new scientific research and have even wrongly stated that it is not new science.... I don't disagree with what those top scientists have recently discovered about the armospheric methane level.... So do as you desire, you are entitled to your opinons and if you wish to ignore that new found science that's alright with me.
Absolute nonsense. Incurable ignorance.
It isn't mentally healthy to talk about yourself in a negative manner, unless perhaps you have sought the help of a head doctor and have been receiving proper treatment.
Once again; MY opinionjs on the issue are based (*entirely*) upon the NEW scientific research some of our top scientists have determined is accurate.. And yes, their findings have been peer reviewed, NEW science which you choose to dismiss as "incurable ignorance".. Hmmm.
What research?
Link please.
The Berkeley Earth project temperature series graph hints that an accelaration in temperature anomaly between the 0 and 1 degree C has occurred over the last 30 years. With business as usual, a 2 degree anomaly can be reached by another 20 years, by 2030, given the emissions accumulation and accelaration. Acceleration and irreversibility has occurred because we have breached tipping points of polar ice, and increased methane release.
Thats a big shame on the response of big per-capita polluter nations in limiting carbon emissions. Australia has the biggest carbon shame, because it has high per capita wealth as well as high per capita emissions, and even more hidden emissions, as it exports coal and raw materials, then imports finished products, and does not count the emissions used to manufacture the imports. The legislation to price carbon emissions is supposed to start working next year, if the fossil fuel corporations fail to bring down the parliament. That step is not even nearly doing enough. And yet the fossil fool-brained opposition leader threatens to dismantle the legislation if he wins the next election, backed by the immense income and media control of multinational mining corporations.
Australia could afford a massive investment program in a renewable energy stationary energy system, and electrify transport and industrial sectors of its economy, to bring its emissions down down to zero. The program, Beyond Zero Emissions is achievable, and all it requires is the will to replace the methods of boiling water for steam turbine electricity generation. Coal burning for baseload power can be totally replaced with a system of using stored heat captured from the sun, using large fields of mirrors, a heat receiver, and large hot molten salt storage tanks. This utilizes the thermal properties of a mix of Potassium and Sodium Nitrate, which is a stable liquid up to 600 C. Politicians have the technology and resources to act now, but fail to do so. Australia also has the worlds best east-west distribution of solar resource.
Australia is also likely to suffer badly from global warming, with prime food producing and irrigation areas likely to be affected. It is already a fragile continent, in extremis from regular drought and bush fire events. The current State governments in the coal mining eastern states are all captured by climate denying, mine pushing political parties. The NSW Premier, is on record in stating he "hates wind farms". Wind farm investment in Victoria has been frozen. Queensland is being ravaged by Coal Seam Gas (CSG) fracking companies. Coal Seam gas companies have the state government of NSW tied up in exploration licences, and also threaten the integrity of Sydney's water supply catchment areas, supplying 4.5 million people. The CSG companies seem to have multinational parents based in China.
See “Want to know what global warming has in store for us? Just go to Australia, where rivers are drying up, reefs are dying, and fires and floods are ravaging the continent”
By the time nations have stopped talking and really doing something to change their economies, 2 degrees C has already been reached, and climbing. We will be talking about a 4 degree target then, because any actions, including massive human die-off, have a minimum 2 extra degrees of delay. If we are still talking about it when reaching 4 degrees, our world population should be cut in half by then, and may be facing global extinction.
Or if you want to save on airfare (not to mention aviation's carbon footprint) you could take Amtrak to Texas, stuck in a drought of millenial proportions for the foreseeable future.
Like then USA, Australia was populated and subdued by British detritus, and has been behaving in character ever since.
Forget about framing the issue around the 1 degree rise--Focus instead on the simple fact that every glacier in the world is melting, receding, or already gone. There is no debate. None. Just corporations that want to kill everything to make one more dollar. And of course, the politicians that work as enablers...
Very good point.
Something else that is rarely mentioned is the increasing acidity of the oceans due primarily to CO2 from fossil fuel burning.
The latter problem may literally be the one that kills us, since so many people depend on the oceans for food.
The whole "climate debate" is simply meant to delay delay delay ..until it is too late.
The fossil fuel industry has already delayed action by at least a decade by playing the same game that the Tobacco industry played with smoking: "manufacture doubt" among the general public, emphasizing "uncertainty" and the "need for more research".
It's all a ruse, of course.
We don't need MORE research to tell us there is a serious problem.
The rising acidity of the oceans is more ominous than you think. The acidity is due to the ocean waters' ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere. But the ability of the oceans to continue to absorb CO2 is decreasing, which means more will stay in the atmosphere, which will cause more warming. A postive-feedback loop is not compatible with stability.
You nailed it perfectly with one paragraph ~Stiv~. Thank you.
If there were no climate scientists, or never had been even one, global warming this time in Earth's history would be doing just as it is now, as we continue to burn fossil fuels as we do and acidify and destroy our oceans, continue to deforest our forests and do nothing about the soon to come catastrophic disaster for life on Earth.
Another very important thing is,,, very recent scientific research and studies by some of our top scientists have determined that (methane) in the atmosphere has caused (*one third*) of the planet's temperature rise, not just a (*sixth*) as was believed just two years ago and prior... In spite of that, many scientists are still ignoring or not discussing the Arctic methane threat.
Due to the fact that methane gas will soon be entering our atmosphere by the multi billions of tons every month (just from) the rapidly thawing Arctic's permafrost, a "tipping point" of__ no return __ to global warming will be reached very soon, perhaps in as few as two more years, perhaps only one more. ... At the current rate of the Arctic's sub-sea permastfrost reduction, it could be one year, but we'll soon find out when.
Once the 'tipping point' of no return has been reached,,, there will be absolutly nothing we can do to prevent (runaway) global warming. That's runaway, no do-overs , no turning back and trying to fix what we have done to our atmosphere in less than 200 years... Sorry, that's how it seems to be.
Joe Romm's summary on this story (redacted, see link for back-up references):
Finally, it always bears repeating that if BEST were just the work of Muller and Curry, it would have no credibility:
Muller is the author of widely debunked books, blog posts and Wall Street Journal op-eds. He himself has actually worked to undermine credibility in well-established science and doesn’t have a great grasp of basic climate science.
Judith Curry is one of the most debunked climate scientists in the country.
But the rest of the team apparently kept them in line.
In any case, there’s no real need for anyone to cite their work because it just confirms what has been in the literature for many years — the planet is warming fast as we know through multiple lines of evidence, including the well-vetted surface temperature record.
Hot Dog Bites Skeptical Man: Koch-Funded Berkeley Temperature Study Does “Confirm the Reality of Global Warming”
In other news, celebrity denialist "Lord" Christopher Monckton has been outed as the latest creation of Sasha Baron Cohen:
Lord Monckton Gets Punked By Australian TV Satirists
Wayne,
Several times you have referred to some article about new findings which prove that the recognized measurements of atmospheric methane are wrong. You have not provided a link to any such article. I don't believe there is such an article, unless it was written by your denialist colleague Mark Morano, like the previous article you mentioned.
If sources like NOAA and NASA aren't good enough for you, where in the heck are you getting your information from?