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Terminators to Tripoli
Killer drones in Libya: The global expansion of remote-controlled warfare.
On Thursday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced the next stage of the most important military invasion of the 21st century. It isn't the invasion of Iraq, Afghanistan, or Libya. It's the invasion of warfare by unmanned vehicles.
This is the invasion's third stage: global expansion. Pakistan has been a pilot experiment—or, rather, a remotely-piloted experiment—in unmanned warfare. Drones have won the confidence of presidents of both parties. Gates' announcement signals that they will now be deployed beyond Pakistan, to Libya and any other place where we need to kill people without risking American lives. (AP Photo)
The invasion began quietly years ago, with scattered, occasional reports of drone strikes in Pakistan. As these reports accumulated, it gradually became apparent that the U.S., without putting troops on the ground or sending pilots into Pakistani air space, was using drones to wage the world's first remote-controlled war. That was the invasion's first stage.
The drone campaign began as President Bush's war. Then, with President Obama's election, it crossed the political aisle. The rate of drone strikes tripled, and Bush's war became Obama's. (On Friday, a U.S. drone killed another 23 people in Pakistan.) That was the second stage.
Drones were deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq, but only as adjuncts to U.S. air and ground forces. Only in Pakistan did we wage a fully remote-controlled war—until Thursday. That's when Gates and Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced another American drone campaign, this time in Libya.
This is the invasion's third stage: global expansion. Pakistan has been a pilot experiment—or, rather, a remotely-piloted experiment—in unmanned warfare. Drones have won the confidence of presidents of both parties. Gates' announcement signals that they will now be deployed beyond Pakistan, to Libya and any other place where we need to kill people without risking American lives.
The quiet, early days of the drone war in Pakistan are over. Unmanned aerial weapons have become an American boast. "Gates: Obama OKs Predator Strikes in Libya," says the headline on the Department of Defense Web site. The arrival of our killing machines is now part of the U.S. message to Muammar Qaddafi, the people around him, and our allies.
Why are we sending drones a month after we entered the Libyan war? Because the war has evolved to require them. Thanks to NATO's air campaign, Cartwright explained, Qaddafi's forces "that are out in the open know that they're going to probably perish if a NATO bird sees them. So you're seeing a much more dispersed fight, people that are digging in or nestling up against crowded areas, where collateral damage is." To evade or deter air strikes, Qaddafi's men are traveling in unmarked vehicles and relocating to cities where they can use nearby civilians, in effect, as human shields.
To kill the bad guys without killing innocent bystanders, we need vehicles that can get close enough to our targets—and inspect them long enough—to be sure that what we're looking at is the bad guys. And then we have to hit them with weapons precise enough to avoid collateral damage. Drones have proved they can do this. Even critics concede that in Pakistan, the drones' civilian casualty rate has declined from 25 percent to 5 percent.
In Libya, Cartwright observed, drones will give NATO the "ability to get down lower" for "better visibility" on its targets. "They're uniquely suited for … urban areas where you can get low collateral damage," thanks to "their extended persistence on the target." Any pilot who tried to fly low enough, or hover long enough, to get the same level of visual confirmation might be shot down. And we can't have that, because Obama has promised us an almost risk-free war.
On Thursday, Gates reaffirmed the pledge with which Obama began the Libya campaign: No ground troops. When reporters asked whether the drones' arrival signaled "mission creep" in Libya, Gates said no. "The president has been firm, for example, on boots on the ground," Gates reiterated. With the drones' help, Obama intends to keep that pledge, waging a war without footprints. He won't even have to risk another downed American pilot.
Drones alone can't win the war in Libya, any more than they've won the war in Pakistan. But they increase our ability to kill the enemy while sparing civilians and avoiding risk to ourselves. To that extent, the unmanned invasion of warfare is a force for good.
On the other hand, it may also create a new kind of mission creep.
"If we tried to overthrow Qaddafi," Obama warned Americans three weeks ago, "we would likely have to put U.S. troops on the ground to accomplish that mission, or risk killing many civilians from the air. The dangers faced by our men and women in uniform would be far greater."
But if drones continue to improve and to take over the conduct of war, the risks to civilians, U.S. troops, and pilots might diminish to the point where we feel emboldened to attempt the overthrow of other dictators. In that case, the unmanned invasion of warfare might turn out to be the most significant invasion of this century, but certainly not the last.
(Readings I recommend: Spencer Ackerman at Danger Room points out that drones need spotters on the ground, so if we don't use "boots" for that in Libya, we might be using the CIA. Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann analyzed the first six years of the drone campaign in Pakistan in a 2010 New America Foundation paper. They updated their assessment four months ago in Foreign Policy. Bill Roggio and Alexander Mayer calculate a lower rate of civilian casualties at the Long War Journal. P. W. Singer wrote a terrific overview of drone warfare and the future of unmanned systems in Slate last year.)
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70 Comments so far
Show AllHaven't we been told this is not a "war" but a humanitarian mission? There can't be a living, breathing person who ever believed that piece of propaganda for a moment. Now that the Amerikan attention span has turned to something else , like buying cheap, Chinese crap for Easter, the Bush 3 administration can slink out of the closet and finally say out loud what we knew to begin with "...the war has evolved".
How much evil can these sick SOBs perpetrate on the world before the people wake up and run them out of town. Who would Jesus bomb?
Death from above. Reminds me of seeing the Terminator/Skynet as a young lad for the first time. Life does imitate art.
Isn't "War Crime" redundant? Just as "Civil War" is an oxymoron?
In a world where some privileged individuals can't even get their teeth cleaned without Novocaine, death is dispensed by remote control, slicing up human beings, dubbed "the enemy" from thousands of feet aloft and thousands of miles away, without even the benefit of anesthesia, as a way to "solve" problems.
I remember seeing parodies of John Lennon's song at the start of the Iraq war on bumper stickers saying, "Give War a Chance". Well, is a decade enough of a chance? Does this one have a better chance? Is this any way for a Nobel Peace Prize winner to behave?
Save the Humans.
Sounds like Libyans may yet succeed in overthrowing their dictator and joining hands with the fledgling democracies on their east and west borders. Bravo!
btw, the false equivalence of Libya and Afghanistan is tiresome. In Libya, 80-90% favor the U.N./NATO intervention. In Afghanistan, those numbers are reversed.
"Sounds like Libyans may yet succeed in overthrowing their dictator ...."
Perhaps by installing a new elite that will be a US client state and buy weapons from US companies. Just saying, the omens are confusing and the US is in there up to its bloodshot eyeballs trying to subvert anything resembling democracy.
A "new elite?" Not according to our most knowledgeable expert. Read juancole.com going back a month or so. "Trying to subvert democracy?" I haven't read anything in that regard. Please share if you have any info (other than Satan-will-always-be-Satan opinions).
There is a syntax which is increasingly leaving me offended, is the "we" in which everybody is included when talking about US war. I do understand that there is a government which is pursuing an illegal war. I mean a sentence like
"Gates' announcement signals that they will now be deployed beyond Pakistan, to Libya and any other place where we need to kill people without risking American lives." Who is this "we" that need to kill people? All American people? is this?
Muslims in Pakistan, not to mention Muslims in countries not allied with us, have been outraged by drone warfare. Whatever the military gains, the use of drones has damaged the remnants of U.S. credibility as a force for good in the world.
The introduction of drones in Lybia occurred in part to try to reverse this. Tunisia and Egypt opened some doors, basically non-violently. The U.S. took the opportunity to walk through those open doors in Lybia, which is an entirely different kind of conflict, with drones. The unspoken hope is that because many Muslims and Arabs oppose Muammar Qaddafi, the use of drones will be legitimized.
Every innovation in warfare provides a new test of the moral integrity of those who possess it. Back when drones first got into the national spotlight – say around the time of the “60 Minutes” story – no thought was given to the morality of use of these weapons. As Saletan’s article demonstrates, that continues to be the case. Only in places like CD do we have any real discussion of the morality, and at that, mostly by means of unfocused denunciation.
The real enemy, of course, is war. As long as we can justify attacking and killing human beings, and causing "collateral damage," in warfare, we've forfeited some of our humanity, regardless of what weapons we use. But there are international standards even though war remains acceptable internationally. Should the use of drones be banned the way chemical and nuclear weapons have been? That’s probably not feasible. Should it be prohibited to deliver missiles, bullets, or bombs, by drone? Maybe, in certain circumstances.
Is it acceptable to kill people or destroy infrastructure by rockets seeming to appear out of nowhere? Is it morally acceptable for people to sit in rooms thousands of miles from the scene of murderous destruction and cause such destruction the way kids play computer games? Would people targeted by such attacks be entitled to consider them terrorism? Would that really help us in the "war on terror"?
Should we limit use of drones to destruction of infrastructure found by rigorous investigation to be havens for the enemy? Should each attack be preceded by a warning that at some time, the attack will occur? Should removal of non-combatants before a drone attack be a high priority? Should assassinations be prohibited? (There seems to be an unspoken agreement that Qaddafi shouldn’t be assassinated by drone.)
These are very serious questions that should have been the subject of extensive national discussion long before Gates and Cartwright appeared before reporters. And the reporters should have raised these questions, both then and long before. But we all know the MSM is feckless.
The U.N., NATO, and other international bodies should have a role in determining the use parameters of these weapons, as is the case with atomic weapons and biological and chemical agents. But the U.S. must not wait for international opinion to develop. It's more than obvious that the drones have worsened world-wide hatred toward the U.S. This makes action to forbid improper use of the weapons mandatory.
The very idea of legitimate use of weapons like this is abhorrent. However, we should be realistic in expecting that the best practical result is strict control of their use.
brad 120 -
Very thoughtful post.
I thought the whole point of this exercise was to assassinate Ghadaffi by drone, to finish the job that Ronald Reagan started and instill fear in the hearts of evil doers everywhere.
Where did this unspoken agreement come from? First I've heard of it.
Bill from Saginaw
Bill from Saginaw, Apr 22 2011 - 10:09pm -- Sorry, it's manning120, not brad 120 (no relation to Bradley Manning).
It seems obvious that the NATO members involved decided not to kill Gaddafi. From the outset of the Libyan situation, the reluctance of the MSM and national spokespersons to even discuss assassinating Gaddafi has amazed me. If he, single-handedly, posed a serious enough threat to justify a huge military effort to spare civilians, why wouldn't the principle of defending civilians require targeting him?
This seems particularly relevant because of recent comments by the Obama administration in favor of assassination of Anwar al-Awlaki. Is the fact that Gaddafi hasn't been, lately at least, making terroristic threats against the U.S. what distinguishes him from al-Awlaki in this respect?
In all the MSM interviews and discussions I've seen or read, no one asked why drones, which are well adapted to targeting unsuspecting individuals, aren't being deployed to kill Gaddafi. Or did I miss something?
(On re-reading this comment, I must add that I don't imply such assassination would be acceptable. The unstated agreement not to assassinate Gaddafi suggests that in some muddled way, the people using drones realize there are limits.)
(This is an update. I missed "Washington Week" on Friday night, but saw it today (Sunday). There was some discussion of the possibility of killing Gaddafi with a drone. However, the reporters didn't look at this as a moral issue. They mentioned that the intent would be to persuade Gaddafi to leave the country out of fear of being assassinated. Of course, they didn't use the word terrorism, but such use of the drones would clearly be terrorism. Will someone ask Obama or his minions if they agree that the drones are being deployed as a means of conducting terrorism?)
manning 120 (I stand corrected) -
If the intent is to persuade Gaddafi to leave Libya out of fear of being assassinated, what tyrant target would reason in such a fashion?
If I believed I was on a hit list, I'd feel safer on my home turf.
Bill from Saginaw
I agree wholeheartedly.
What is being sold is COST. See Alexander Cockburn, "Why the US Defense
Budget Soars, Even as Military Shrinks", COUNTERPUNCH, March 16-31, 2011
Vol 18, No. 6, especially pp. 2-3, cols 2-3
William Saletin, the Slate author wrote the paragraph below --
To kill the bad guys without killing innocent bystanders, we need vehicles that can get close enough to our targets—and inspect them long enough—to be sure that what we're looking at is the bad guys. And then we have to hit them with weapons precise enough to avoid collateral damage. Drones have proved they can do this. Even critics concede that in Pakistan, the drones' civilian casualty rate has declined from 25 percent to 5 percent.
There are no quotation marks around this piece of pure idiocy. I suspect he was just plagiarizing the Pentagon Press Release he was using as the basis for this article and lost track of the difference between himself as a journalist and the Pentagon as a source. That happens a lot these days., The level of intelligence of journalists is getting pretty damn low. Normally journalists try to do a little research and not just re-word what is given to them by the Pentagon. Had Saletin done a little looking, he might have found the following --
"In April, The News, a newspaper in Lahore, Pakistan, published figures provided by Pakistani officials indicating that 687 civilians have been killed along with 14 al Qaeda leaders in some 60 drone strikes since January 2008—just over 50 civilians killed for every al Qaeda leader. A paper published this week by the influential pro-military Centre for a New American Security (CNAS) criticising the Obama administration’s use of drone attacks in Pakistan says U.S. officials “vehemently dispute” the Pakistani figures but offers no further data on the programme." Harper's Magazine.
"To put it another way, Mir’s report suggested that 98.14% of fatalities associated with the Predator strikes were civilians. On February 1 of this year, Mir added that in January 2010 alone 123 Pakistani civilians had been killed in ten errant CIA drone strikes, while only three al-Qaeda targets had been eliminated (The News, February 1). These shocking statistics were picked up and widely reported in the Western press (New York Times, May 16). Along similar lines another Pakistani daily, Dawn, reported in January 2010 that “of the 44 Predator strikes carried out by U.S. drones in the tribal areas of Pakistan over the past 12 months, only five were able to hit their actual targets, killing five key al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders, but at the cost of over 700 innocent lives. For each al-Qaeda and Taliban terrorist killed by the American drones, 140 civilian Pakistanis also had to die” (Dawn [Karachi], January 2). Such reports have reinforced the notion that drone strikes are not only inaccurate, but seem to kill innocent civilians in wildly disproportionate numbers." Free Republic.
"To kill the bad guys without killing innocent bystanders, we need vehicles that can get close enough to our targets—and inspect them long enough—to be sure that what we're looking at is the bad guys. And then we have to hit them with weapons precise enough to avoid collateral damage. Drones have proved they can do this."
Dude, the author's local crack dealer must be in LOVE!
Some basic, and I mean BASIC research on YouTube will be an eye opener. You will find plenty of video about the 'precision' of a Hellfire Anti-Tank missile ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-114_Hellfire ) or Griffin missile ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Griffin_(missile) ).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ-dNu5uOQc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IchMxgxjECE&feature=fvst
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIisAlFMKq4&feature=related
Now, after watching those, do any of those missile strikes look like 'precision to you?
orpheus, well said. I wonder who thinks that even a 5% civilian casualty rate is acceptable? Notice how that figure gets slipped in to suggest, without any supporting authority or evidence, that 5% is okay.
the US is phasing out its standing army.
drone operators are seated.