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Portugal Teeters on Brink of Bailout
Bailout request seen as 'inevitable' following prime minister's resignation in wake of failure to push through austerity measures
City experts fear Portugal will be soon be forced to apply for a bailout package worth up to €70bn (£61bn), following the Lisbon government's failure to push through its austerity measures on Wednesday.
Outgoing Portugal prime minister José Sócrates had proposed a plan of tax rises and spending cuts to cut the country's deficit. (Jose Sena Goulao/EPA) Portugal is teetering on the brink of becoming the third member of the eurozone to seek assistance from the EU – and as with Greece and Ireland the International Monetary Fund would probably also be involved.
Prime minister José Sócrates's resignation on Wednesday night has left the country in political limbo, and piled extra pressure on European leaders who are gathering at a summit in Brussels on Thursday.
"The resignation of the Portuguese prime minister adds a political crisis to a fiscal crisis, and brings a bailout a step closer," said Kevin Dunning at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Sócrates quit after opposition parties voted down his austerity measures. European commission president José Manuel Barroso quickly warned, though, that the country must stick to the latest reforms announced earlier this month.
Britain could be forced to contribute more than £3bn to a Portugal bailout package, according to the Open Europe thinktank. It claimed on Thursday that the UK's share of any rescue package would be between €810m and €3.7bn, via the commission's €440bn bailout fund.
"Portugal will inevitably ask for a bailout," said Open Europe's Raoul Ruparel. "But the cases of Ireland and Greece clearly illustrate that the EU's strategy – to throw good money after bad – is failing. Rather than simply taking a bailout, it would be better in the long run for Portugal to restructure its debt now," Ruparel added.
Sócrates had proposed a wide-ranging plan of tax rises and spending cuts, in an attempt to cut Portugal's deficit and retain market confidence. The yields on Portuguese government debt has reached record highs, with the 10-year bond trading hitting 7.6% – widely seen as an unsustainably high cost of borrowing.
Now that the austerity programme has been rejected, economists also believe Portugal must ask for help.
"Portugal moved another step closer to needing a bailout yesterday," said Gary Jenkins, the head of fixed interest research at Evolution Securities. "Even with complete political harmony it was always going to be difficult for Portugal to persuade investors to continue to fund them and thus yields are likely to rise further from what has already been described as unsustainable levels by Portuguese officials."
George Osborne concerned
Chancellor George Osborne tried to calm nerves, saying talk of a bailout was "speculation" at this stage, but conceded that the situation was unsettling.
"What is happening in Portugal is certainly concerning. It reminds us that we are not alone in facing these challenges," said Osborne.
Portugal needs to refinance around £4bn of bonds in April.
It also emerged last night that the new European Stability Mechanism – to which Britain will not sign up – will not be signed off at the two-day meeting in Brussels, as had been planned. Instead, the deadline for a final agreement has been pushed back to the end of June.
"When I started working in the City I was often told to follow the old 'under promise and over deliver' formula; the EU seems to be going for the opposite strategy when it comes to dealing with the crisis," Jenkins added.
Fears that the European debt crisis may spread to Madrid were heightened on Thursday morning, when Moody's downgraded most of the Spanish banking sector.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, argued that Spain was in much better shape than its Iberian neighbour.
"You can never say anyone is safe in these times. There is always the danger of a run on a country. But Spain is in a significantly better position than Portugal, which in every likelihood will need a bailout now," Schmieding told Bloomberg TV.
Britain's inclusion in the €440bn temporary stabilisation mechanism is controversial, as Alistair Darling signed up for the plan on 10 May 2010 – during the hiatus between the general election and the formation of the coalition government. Osborne, who replaced Darling as chancellor later that week, has insisted that he would have taken a different decision.
The UK is lending a total of £7bn to Ireland, partly through the European rescue and partly as a bilateral loan. Osborne has said that he expects Britain will make a profit on the agreement, as long as the money is eventually repaid.
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18 Comments so far
Show AllDo as Iceland did. Offer the Investors 20 cents on the dollar and if they do not accept it drop it 5 cents per month until they get nothing.
Then.
Quit the EU so as to gain control over ones own finances rather then having such determined in Brussels.
Introduce and new currency for Portugal.
Nationalize the banking system and declare that all Portugese Citizens are free of all debt.
Start fresh with a NON debt based currency ensuring the IMF, The World Bank and International Bankers never gain a foothold in Portugal again.
And Ireland should do the same. There shoudn't even be ANY hesitation of defaulting on the brits in particular. Those bloody bastards OWE a whole lot more than the bailout money in reparations for what they had done over the past MILLENIA to lovely Ireland.
Of course, the poster above correctly points out the consequences and one is left with a sick, helpless and hopeless feeling. Kind of a downer when you get to the point that you hope that the Mayan prophecies are correct and the whole goddamned human experiment come to an end on Dec 21, 2012,
Too late for Ireland, they already took the IMFs money. Abrogating their soverenty. Anybody who can should get out of the EU, NAFTA, CAFTA, and any other agreement that hands away national authority, to any multinational agancy.
>^^<
"Too late for Ireland..."
Nope. They can reneg, but it's not likely.
All that sound good in theory. In practice however, the countries that are in that kind of predicament usually have a huge trade deficit as they do not produce all the stuff they need internally (the US has teh same problem). After doing the changes you mentioned it would be hard if not impossible for that country to buy anything on credit and import it.
Now that would really be called austerity.
Iceland seems to be managing alright. Do you think they manufacture all they need?
Russia also defaulted on its debt as did Argentina.
So did we, in 1930. Congress allowed the US to go into Bankruptcy see; http://www.barefootsworld.net/usfraud.html and we still have not returned to full sverency. The US Dollar is already worth 98% less than in 1940. Stick a fork in US cause we done!
>^^<
Seems like a good "plan", GwNorth. However, I would add these - following the "fresh start" you've prescribed:
Work on redistribution of wealth to more equitable levels: Portugal is in the top 10 list of countries with the highest inequality (and in the top 5 within OECD countries), as measured by the Gini index.
And live within ecological means, and make sure to import only that much stuff that can be paid for with exports. Conquering other countries to make up for the excess consumption is more difficult these days, and besides, the competition is way too ruthless and sophisticated.
And lay off expensive, but in reality, unproductive, ventures such as hosting the soccer world cup. As recently as a few months ago, Portugal was bidding for hosting the 2018 FIFA world cup (along with Spain, jointly), before "losing" to Russia. Very few countries break even, if at all, by hosting such extravaganzas such as the Olympics and soccer world cup. There is money to be made, for sure, but only for the few, well-positioned businesses.
Agreed,
The 9 Stadiums built in 2004, for the European cup, were all later charged to the local municipal governments with some complicated book keeping when the first debt crisis hit Portugal, so that the central gov, could take their commitment to them off their books. Now those local governments cannot fix their roads and are up to their eyeballs in red ink for the next 50 years, so guess what? They privatised their services.... It never ends. The citizens never stop getting screwed.
When you say, "There is money to be made, for sure, but only for the few, well-positioned businesses"
Yes, but that's the few that run the country and that run Europe. Finally the high speed rail projects costing Billions and not even projected as far as Lisbon from Spain will be cancel. As far as the Lisbon Porto high speed rail was concerned. How does one get back near on a billion Euros for reducing a trip by less than 30 minutes. Where was the rush anyway?
These mammoth projects are all just made for banks and multinationals to turn around debt with government guarantees. They never ever come in on budget anyway. It's the same old racket, and the same old racketeers. Sonai, Teixeira Duarte, EDP, etc, etc.
tmn, vodafone,
It would appear as if the third of the most serious tier of debt laden is about to have it's turn before the hammer of international finance. As this money-driven Kabuki play (where the audience knows the plot) goes forward, Spain & Italy are next. What remains to be seen if this spreads to the second tier, Belgium, the Netherlands, Hungary, etc. If that happens, then the Euro and even perhaps the European Union itself is in trouble.
GwNorth, any chance you could take over the US as economic advisor? That is some of the smartest stuff I've read.
The US just keeps giving money to the errant tyrants. Rich begging at the gov't door when they created the problem themselves by charging too much so they all can have their greedy slobber profits while killing innocent people.
My level of disgust at this whole mess is beyond the pale. I tend to write that way.
I'd never make an econominist. But let me see if this is right; All these countries live in this comfortable neighborhood but they want to spiffy up their various domiciles and so they go looking around or the sales rep's come around and each buys this expensive rug. The rug maker being the IMF, the World Bank, etc; and so they buy on credit and turns out to be just like the mortgage thingy here. So they will still pay for the rug, which has been pulled out from under them, and they will have to borrow more to do so And, this I believe, was the plan from the beginning. My mind just cannot wrap it's self around the greed and lust for what? Power? This is world wide too and nothing is sacred except lucre. Tony
So the Portuguese elite will get to loot the working class no matter what, it didn't get to steal from workers through "austerity" measures but will steal from them through a bailout. Revolting.
What you had was a PM who doubled the countries debts in the last 5 years and is about to be the yes man for the EU bankers to make his country's most vulnerable and least able to turn anything around, bend over and take the medicine prescribed by the EU bankers, those who brought us this designer crisis in the first place. In a 30 minute speech last night he blamed everyone but himself and his government for general disapproval of his policies which was shown the 19th in a massive demonstration “Dia de Indignação e Protesto”.
The belt tightening was far too strict and would only delay the need for EU funds anyway. Thank heavens this corrupt self-serving egocentric, euro-yes-man, pretending to be a socialist is out of power.
There are two lines of this article that bear reading:
"José Manuel Barroso quickly warned, though, that the country must stick to the latest reforms announced earlier this month."
Here is the consummate apparatchik of the EU anti democratic dictatorship as represented by the Lisbon Treaty, trying to say that although the parliament has just thrown out the government and its budget for agreeing unacceptable terms with the EU, whoever comes into power elected by the people to deal with these problems in Portugal must continue to follow the EU dictates. Ya, like hell! they're not Greece.
and
"The yields on Portuguese government debt has reached record highs, with the 10-year bond trading hitting 7.6% – widely seen as an unsustainably high cost of borrowing."
This is the kind of thinking these bankers love. Get a country to borrow when its cheap, Tighten the money supply and then say "it's market forces".... While in fact Portugal has to borrow at higher interest only to turn over debt and cover interest, and like it could go "bankrupt" as an EU, Euro member?
While Germany takes satisfaction on its export economy, you have to wonder how Siemens would would have exported an underground railway system to Porto without the debts and finance that the government underwrote. Who is supposed to buy those VW's and Mercedes anyway? That's why the southern European economies where inflated and all those splendid highways were build with borrowed money in the 90s wasn't it?
Either its one Europe or its rich European states playing banking tricks of shrinking money supplies with their less endowed poorer European states.
I suggest the next Government in Portugal go to EU and tell them they are going back to the Escudo and they'll pay their obligations as and when. In short they can and do an Argentina or an Iceland, because they are no where like in the same condition as Ireland and Greece. All this shafting of the populace and extraordinary taxes among the highest in Europe, while Portuguese major corporations like the protected energy company EDP are making record profits at home and abroad due to protected pricing and overseas operations, Meantime the locally economy is left to stagnate and unemployment soars.
It is either Europe and the Euro or it is Portugal and the Escudo, Germany, and France cannot have it both ways, not the good times without the bad at the convenience and profit of the big boys and their banker friends.
Governments should be run for people not banks and corporations and so the next government in Portugal I hope will be a Bloco de Esquedra/PCP coalition that might actually try and protect some workers, and pensioners for a change rather than the friends in big biz that are usually in power.
extraordinary taxes among the highest in Europe, ......................
not to mention the fuel.....................
Saw a guy on Faux Business positivly drooling at the prospect of $200bl oil by Xmas. This is the accepted notion of the east coast monied elite. as lond as they get the profit,, to hell with the human race!
>^^<