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Air Force Plans for All-Drone Future
Is the day of the hot-shot fighter jock nearly done?
As of 2009 the Air Force’s robotic drone fleet stands at 195 Predators and 28 Reapers. An Air Force study, released without much fanfare on Wednesday,
suggests that tomorrow’s dogfighers might not have pilots in the
cockpit. The Unmanned Aircraft System Flight Plan.
which sketches out possible drone development through the year 2047,
comes with plenty of qualifiers. But it envisions a radical future. In
an acronym-dense 82 pages, the Air Force explains how ever-larger and
more sophisticated flying robots could eventually replace every type of
manned aircraft in its inventory — everything from speedy, air-to-air
fighters to lumbering bombers and tankers.
Emphasis on “might” and “could.” While revealing how robots can equal the capabilities of traditional planes, the Air Force is careful to emphasize that an all-bot air fleet is not inevitable. Rather, drones will represent “alternatives” to manned planes, in pretty much every mission category.
Some of the missions tapped for possible, future drones are currently considered sacrosanct for human pilots. Namely: dogfighting and nuclear bombing. Drones “are unlikely to replace the manned aircraft for air combat missions in the policy-relevant future,” Manjeet Singh Pardesi wrote in Air & Space Power Journal, just four years ago. Dogfighting was considered too fluid, too fast, for a drone’s narrow “situational awareness.” As for nuclear bombing: “Many aviators, in particular, believe that a ‘man in the loop’ should remain an integral part of the nuclear mission because of the psychological perception that there is a higher degree of accountability and moral certainty with a manned bomber,” Adam Lowther explained in Armed Forces Journal, in June.
Despite this, the Air Force identifies a future “MQ-Mc” Unmanned Aerial System for dogfighting, sometime after 2020. The MQ-Mc will also handle “strategic attack,” a.k.a nuke bombing. Less controversial is the conjectural MQ-L, a huge drone that could fill in for today’s tankers and transports.
But just because a drone could replace a manned plane, doesn’t necessarily mean it definitely will. “We do not envision replacing all Air Force aircraft with UAS,” Col. Eric Mathewson told Danger Room by email. “We do plan on considering UAS as alternatives to traditionally manned aircraft across a broad spectrum of Air Force missions … but certainly not all.” In other words, in coming years drones might be able to do everything today’s manned planes can do — technically speaking. But the Air Force still might find good reasons — moral, financial or otherwise — to keep people in some cockpits.
The Flight Plan represents a new twist in a heated debate raging in Congress over the Pentagon’s 3,000-strong fighter force. The legislature is split over whether to fund more F-22 fighters — a move that could draw a veto from President Barack Obama. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has long favored drone development over buying more manned fighters, and in May Joint Chiefs chair Admiral Mike Mullen predicted Gates’ position would win out, over the long term. “There are those that see [the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter] as the last manned fighter,” Mullen said. “I’m one that’s inclined to believe that.” General Atomics, which makes the popular Predator line of drones, underscored Mullen’s comment by unveiling its new, faster Predator C.
If Flight Plan proves an accurate predictor, it’s not just manned fighters (maybe) headed for extinction, but (maybe) nuclear bombers, transports, tankers … nearly all human-occupied military planes.
54 Comments so far
Show Alland when they're done automating war, there will be even fewer jobs for the poor...:) insidious fuckers, aren't they?
what a lovely direction we're headed. a sci fi writers wet dream.
maybe we'll get lucky and the masters will automate themselves out of existence.
"maybe we'll get lucky and the masters will automate themselves out of existence"
"A Taste of Armageddon" Star Trek 1966.
Terminate the TERMINATORS...
Hasta la vista, baby.
Don't want you back, EVER.
Easier to recruit this way. The kids can be shown the plush control rooms, how they could sit there at the controls just like playing a video game, dropping bombs on the enemy in the Middle East. You don't have to deal with 130 degree heat, blowing dust and sand, or risk getting blown up by an IED.
Maybe there will a major malfunction.
Hackers of the world unite, now there is really a reason to disrupt the computer masters of the world.
Sioux Rose
CURTIS: You identified the same "recipe" I did. I think it'll be the only way this monster can be defanged. Imagine if U.S. defense contractors contract out to China and other friends today/enemies tomorrow the necesssary components of these nasty new weapons of war? Someone may figure out how to put together the missing pieces sooner, as opposed to later.
Simply hard-code GPS coordinates into the software. When the drone is activated it ignores all commands from the ground and delivers its payload right on top of the control room or anywhere else convenient.
Of course, human beings will still be on the receiving end of these atrocious killing machines. But see - no blood on our hands, and our "heroes" will be putting themselves even less at risk. So that's all right then.
I guess the phrase "Bring the troops home" will soon be obsolete.
odoco
Science has evolved into something the religionists always feared - life without a soul; religion has morphed into something always warned against by science - illogical and rabid hatred and bias against all those who are different.
The nexus of the two means the end of mankind.
Is there anyone, anywhere, who can stop this madness.
And on a more personal note, to all of those in the military, flying the drones, running around in your night vision goggles, helmets geared with GPS devices, built-in microphones, etc.
You do not make me feel safer, in fact, quite the opposite.
'Science' and its handmaiden 'technology' are simply tools. They can be used for whatever society's deciders care to use them for. That they are used in the US more often as a means for distruction and the consolidation of power at elite levels is the problem - not science and technology per se.
It is not science that is 'soul-less' - whatever that may mean - it is our society. Our deciders' choices only reflect our national character. But given that our capitalist ideology treats everything and everybody as a commodity and therefore marketable, manipulate-able, and disposal it is no surprise that we treat people as refuse. Live by capitalism, die by capitalism. Soon I hope.
As for organized religion - though I have no expectation that religion will fade away anytime soon, I think its demise critical to our survival as a species.
i'm sure folks know, their plans go way beyond pilotless aircraft for the Air Force.
They are actively designing systems for war from space. They see this as a path to eternal and complete military / economic domination of the Earth. Yes it is crazy, and yes it is their vision of the future. The drones themselves require space-based communication technology, and wars since the first Gulf War have been increasingly space-based. And Obama's "defense" priorities, even as outlined on his own revamped White House web site, are clearly in line with this vision.
Please visit the Global Network site, www.space4peace.org .
in the past illegitimate governments could be deposed when important members of the military revolted or refused orders. this human/moral element is being removed so that a small group of technological/banking elites can control the planet without fear of a moral backlash within their ranks. the desire is to have 100% of the air force be unmanned. the shadow government used unmanned remote controlled global hawk technology to fly the planes into the WTC on 911. as the elites like to say, "morality is for the weak." that is, empathy and care are the domain of the slave class, not for the Super Class. ask yourself what kind of influence the rockefellers and rothschilds have when their assets exceed $10trillion each, with the rothschild compound in London not subject to british law and the supreme court building of israel being dedicated to lord rothschild?
cf:
no plane hit the pentagon: http://www.citizeninvestigationteam.com/nsa.html
pakistani, israeli, and us intelligence had full foreknowledge of 911: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4d0ndti5tro
help new yorkers get a new 911 investigation with subpoena powers: http://www.nyccan.org/index.php
peace
Also be sure to watch the film "Man on Wire" to see just how easy it was for a small group of street performers, many of whom could not even speak English, to sneak into BOTH towers of the WTC, haul in over four hundred pounds of gear, and string a heavy wire cable between the tops of the two towers, all without being detected.
Security does not come from minimum wage guards. Security does not come from video game operators in Nevada directing bombs onto "suspected" targets. Security can only come from us being honest with the world. And we are a long way from that.
There has been quite a furor over the drones and their killing ways in the Middle East. The Hawks justify them by less combat deaths amongst our troops. Humans are appalled at the thought of a kid sitting in a comfortable room racking up points on their screen for killing "terrorists" a half a world away.
Could the new surge, which has already upped our casualty rate enormously, simply be the Hawk's strategy to make the drones acceptable to the public at large? "Look at how many of our boys are dying out there! We can end that. Just send in the drones!"
And lo, it may well come to pass that the sheeple will go for that. Remember, there is never a mention that we could reduce our casualties to zero, or near zero, by simply relearning the skill of sitting down to discuss problems and make compromises rather than by bayonet and bomb.
Of course the trump card is that, if we did that, certain huge companies would lose some of their profits and we can't have that now, can we?
The democrat party leader Howard Dean said something to this effect on Democracy Now, last week. He said that would be a simple matter to "control the Taliban and other 'terrorists' with our drones" but then went on about how some of our boys are going to have to put their lives on the line for womens rights rights in Afghanistan.
I never liked Howard Dean, now I despise him.
I heard alot of Sufferagettes (sp?) say they were very disappointed that Britain did not bomb the USA in support of womens voting rights.
"there is never a mention that we could reduce our casualties to zero, or near zero, by simply relearning the skill of sitting down to discuss problems and make compromises rather than by bayonet and bomb."
I take your point, except for this:-
What problem? Are we actually there for a valid reason?
Conflict resolution is a great idea. People can discuss problems and find win/win outcomes or make compromises - and the problems can be solved.
But take the situation where the school bully makes himself a hero by finding ways to abuse the one who cannot defend himself. Conflict resolution has no place here. It simply does not apply, and cannot help.
"What problem? Are we actually there for a valid reason?"
No, we are not even in the ME for a legitimate problem, except for Big Oil wanting to have it ALL, for as little as possible, to increase their already obscene profits.
We don't seem to negotiate with anyone anymore except at the point of a gun, and then we expect a "Sir, yes Sir!," or we will go in and start slaughtering "terrorists," i.e., anyone who disagrees with us or tries to defend his country.
Governmental policy is not much different living under the Obamanation than it was when we were being Bushwhacked. Now, we get an occasional peanut, but the wars are widening, the slaughter is getting worse.
Unfortunately, I don't know if there is anybody in the schoolyard with a big enough two by four to drop the bully, especially with his gang around him.
Dogfighting and Nuclear bombing? When was the last dogfight that the US engaged in? Vietnam?
Drones are good at what the US has been doing for the last 30 years. Remote killing. In this case, sci-fi writers have been prescient as they usually are about these things:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYy0H1wuMYA
so what has been going on in afghanistan and pakistan is weapons development using live subjects---sort of like the japanese practicing bayonet on live chinese during the pacific war...
Sioux Rose
GUERNICA: You articulated my fear--and sense of things.
However, just as 911 was facilitated by the mere ingenious use of boxcutters, it would seem that enemies to the US death star would not need comparable weapons, but the computer means to break codes and turn these unmanned drones onto OTHER targets, like the White House and Pentagon. American technology makes the mistake of always presuming its own superiority. The various recent guerilla wars should have taught some humility. The flaw in any system lies in what it cannot conceive about itself. Thus the human fallibility in our own defense systems present the opportunity for some very sharp cookies to turn our mega-billions in high tech back on the ones that conceived of these nightmares. I believe that to be a REAL possibility.
How apt to call it "the US death star". Coz it sure has nothing to do with "defence".
And Pearl Harbor was made possible by the ingenious use of plywood to make torpedoes operate in shallow water. Not bad for an island with wooden planes, eh?
China has already hacked alot of Pentagon computers.
"China has already hacked a lot of Pentagon computers."
I've read a couple of articles in tech magazines to the effect that we are having much of our computer, guidance and weapons systems made in China as it is cheaper. If I were a Chinese, I'd not only be analyzing these things, but I'd be building self-destruct on command nano circuits in every one of them. We will be eaten alive by our greed and stupidity one of these days.
Don't forget that these systems are controlled by software. Who writes the software? It would be a simple matter to program override routines into the targeting system. Launch a missle at an enemy target and a few seconds into flight the guidance system override becomes operational and turns the missle back to strike its launch site, or if its an ICBM, turns the missle back to hit Washington or NYC or LA or San Diego or Seattle or or or or...
and Gaza
and Gaza
MIC plans for all war all the time in the future. With even more two legged drones for mop-up duties.
“Many aviators, in particular, believe that a ‘man in the loop’ should remain an integral part of the nuclear mission because of the psychological perception that there is a higher degree of accountability and moral certainty with a manned bomber.”
Leaving aside the highly questionable "moral certainty" of any "nuclear mission", that sounds to me like a pretty clear explanation for removal of the "man in the loop" accross the entire spectrum of imperial activity. Quite apart from the possibility of someday having to fight an enemy with some real self-defence capability above ground level, USA Incorporated certainly wouldn't want its own "moral certainty" to be questioned by its lowly cannon fodder.
"As for nuclear weapons, 'Many aviators, in particular, believe that a man in the loop should remain an integral part of the nuclear mission because of the psychological perception that there is a higher degree of accountability and moral certainty with a manned bomber . ."
Oh, so all these hundreds of definitely unmanned nuclear bomb carrying missiles scattered across the midwest and western US, known to some as the Nuclear Heartland, plus all the ones ready to be fired from the Trident nuclear submarines lurking in the world's oceans are unnecessary since they have no one on board for "accountability and moral certainty"? If we had only known this long ago. It would have saved hundreds of billions of dollars. Can they be deactivated and dismantled at once?
The image of the Sterling Hayden character (Turgidson?) riding cowboy style on the launched bomb in the Dr. Stangelove film is etched in many of our minds.
Military ethics is to morality what military music is to music.
Very much like "corporate ethics" in fact. It pretty much boils down to whatever you can get away with without adverse consequences for yourself. Once upon a time, it included some small measure of concern for "blowback" on the troops in the field, but that, like the Geneva Conventions and other such international covenants, is now regarded as quaint and obsolete.
Note: It was Slim Pickens who rode the bomb down, "Yeee Hawwww!!" Sterling played General Jack D. Ripper, and a spooky character he was!
I was at the Hydrogen Bomb tests (Operation Redwing, Bikini Atoll, 1956) and have spent a large part of my life since then trying to have those damned, infernal, machines banned and dismantled. We made some strides before we got Bushwhacked, but now we are right back in the cold war with a nuclear arms race starting up again and I'm sure the MIC is loving every minute (and every dollar) of it.
Well it looks like we are well on our way to weaponizing space. Thanks to Ragun! The US Air Force plan includes using nano flying objects and weapons close to the ground too. I heard someone say that these tiny "things" are being developed to "eat" their energy sources too! This all could be a smoke and mirror distraction but I would bet these crazy people are serious. They tout the idea that drones are much cheaper than fighter jets and while this may be true for today, it is totally stupid to believe that will be the case tomorrow. Has anything to do with war manufacturing stayed cheap? What is the human fascination with war and killing? On the other hand the great desire for peace and compassion? Are we really two kinds of people or are we totally conflicted? Gee I'm gonna have nightmares about little flying objects in my bedroom!
Just be sure that you don't talk about them in your sleep or you could find yourself in the tender loving care of the enemy combattant re-education robots.
There is no "human fascination with war and killing." One hopes that you're not disparaging the brave and noble troops engaged in bringing USA Incorporated's freedom and democracy to the ungrateful savages who fail to perceive and voluntarily adopt the unquestioned superiority of The American Way(TM). The advanced weaponry is all about ensuring that little girls can attend the same schools as little boys, don'tcha know. Assuming any of them survive, that is.
"I was looking for happiness at my wedding;they sent me a drone".
"I just wanted to grieve at a grave site;they sent me a drone".
"I just wanted to herd my sheep;they sent me a drone".
"I needed my rest and sleep in my house;they sent me a drone".
I had to walk to town for the market;they sent me a drone.
"It was my birthday,had guests,waited for presents;they sent me a drone".
There is no way that my heart and Soul can feel anything but revulsion at this.Tony
SkyNet. 'nuff said.
Why leave questions of moral-targeting up to mere humans? Every computer knows they have a reputation for 'cold feet'.
So,,,when will they automate the flesh eating robots? Or robot airline pilots and crew?
One question: which airforce? The predator has been such an unqualified success, it seems likely we'll ALL be looking over our heads for the unseen robotic assailant soon. Also, it should not be lost on anyone that the predator's primary 'prey' is civilians, i.e. its a terror-tool. It's a matter of just a few years before the terrorists adopt it as their own.
Robots or humans they both obey orders.
I wonder if they have a drone that is capable of flying into buildngs, simulating a terrorist attack?
The Rise of the Machines
If you have flown in a commercial airplane you were flying by robot called auto pilot.Planes have been flown this way for many years. They are certainly capable of the flight path into the world trade towers.
It is suspected that the recent crash over the Atlantic was caused by pilot error after the auto pilot was turned off due to lack of sensory input.
Predators are now flying along the US Canadian border. From 39,000 feet they can read the number and suit of the playing card you hold in your hand.As well as you sun bathing in the buff.
Remember flight Korean 007 where the auto pilots were turned off so as to fly a route which would scramble the Soviets eastern defenses and record the locations with the spyplane, satelite and spaceshuttle all aligned for spying?
Right the Hell On.
It's tricky to knock an F-16 down. But if all the AF's aircraft are drones, why we'll just tool on over to Drone Central USA and raze it to the ground.
The fall of the oppressors will be by the glaring weaknesses of the very tools they employed to kill. Example, nuclear weapons are now pretty honestly dangerous, prolific, portable....and most criticially one country in particular, their actions are slowly, inexorably pulling destiny to their breast.
An irradiated destiny.
Wierd as Hell! They was nice,
folks from near and far wouldst loves them, and
most critical if surviving counts-they'd not be pulling a destiny of death to their breast.
A strange embrace.
A National Death Wish.
I'm sure even Drones have their Achilles Heel.
What an idea!--military contractors could also develop the "anti-drone" and sell it to third world countries as a form of 21st century "protection racket".
My God, how the money rolls in!
The bright side is drones do not get brain injuries, PTSD, or return and murder their spouses.
it is only the other who is murdered..."...brown and yellow races and chop them up into bits of beefsteak tartare"...(b.brecht)