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Venezuela's Vote Sunday Could Make or Break Hugo Chavez
CARACAS, Venezuela - In a vote with huge ramifications, Venezuelans will decide Sunday whether to give President Hugo Chavez the chance to remain in power indefinitely.
Hugo Chavez speaks at his closing campaign rally ahead of Sunday's referendum. Photograph: Jorge Silva/REUTERS Approving Chavez's proposal to scrap term limits would give fresh momentum to his socialist revolution. Defeating the measure would weaken his political legitimacy, undermining his grand ambitions at home and abroad.
Polls indicate that the result is too close to call, although Chavez seems a slight favorite since he's marshaled the entire machinery of government behind his bid to keep power past the scheduled end of his term in 2013.
Undecided Venezuelans such as Jesus Infante, a 23-year-old clothing store salesman, will spell the difference.
"Chavez has done a lot of good things for the poor, but I don't like how he is always getting into fights with other foreign leaders," Infante said. "I haven't heard a convincing argument yet by either side."
Chavez has become a 21st Century populist strongman during his 10 years as president.
He has used a windfall from high oil prices to shower billions of dollars on Venezuela's downtrodden while managing the economy and marginalizing his critics.
Chavez also has forged an anti-U.S. bloc, sending billions of dollars to Cuba, Bolivia and other like-minded nations in Latin America that oppose free trade and capitalism.
Sunday's election is being closely watched from Washington to Havana to Brasilia.
"What happens in Venezuela will affect what happens in Bolivia, El Salvador, Peru, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Guatemala, Argentina and elsewhere in the hemisphere," said Jorge Quiroga, a former Bolivian president and a Chavez critic, in an interview. "You can plot the matrix: The stronger Chavez is at home, the more meddlesome he is abroad. Latin America has never seen a man as politically talented, as wildly ambitious and as incredibly well-funded trying to establish a project like he's trying to do in the hemisphere."
Chavez's behavior in Venezuela and beyond worries U.S. policymakers. Since the U.S. buys most of Venezuela's oil, however, American consumers ironically have been financing a good portion of his government's anti-U.S. activities.
Chavez is trying to join two leftist allies - Ecuador's Rafael Correa and Bolivia's Evo Morales - in winning public approval to extend his time in office.
This is Chavez's second attempt to be given the right to remain in power as long as he wins elections. In December 2007, Venezuelans narrowly defeated his first campaign, which sought 69 changes to the constitution. It was the only national election that he's lost.
Many previous Chavez voters stayed home rather than cast a ballot against the 2007 measure. There are roughly 16.7 million registered voters in Venezuela, and voting isn't mandatory as it is in other Latin American countries.
This year, Chavez has mounted an aggressive campaign to make sure that his supporters return to the fold.
Analysts think that Chavez is holding the latest referendum now because he thinks that his popularity is about to wane as the Venezuelan economy gets pummeled by low global oil prices and by the U.S. economic slowdown and rising prices within Venezuela.
Asdrubal Oliveros, a Caracas-based economic consultant, is predicting stagflation in 2009. He expects that growth will drop from 4.9 percent in 2008 to 0.5 percent in 2009 while inflation will rise from 31 percent to 40 percent. Venezuela already has Latin America's highest inflation rate.
As president, Chavez has halved poverty, but violent crime is rising and shortages of food and other basic goods persist. Toilet paper disappeared for store shelves for several days last week.
The referendum asks voters to mark "si" or "no" whether they favor abolishing term limits not only for Chavez but all elected officials.
"He has an obsession about staying in power," said Carlos Vecchio, a Chavez critic from Caracas who heads a coalition of opposition groups called Comando Angostura.
Chavez seems to be taking no chances that he'll lose again.
State workers have been leaving their jobs to go door to door in slum neighborhoods. "Si" billboards and posters are up throughout Caracas, even alongside the highway that connects inland Caracas to the international airport.
While some opposition ads ran on government television stations in 2007, none do now.
Thugs allied with the government have roughed up opponents. Chavez supporters have occupied Metro Caracas City Hall rather, forcing the newly elected opposition mayor to work elsewhere.
Government officials have denied eight march permits to referendum opponents while freely granting them to referendum supporters.
Both sides have hurled insults at the other, as has been typical during political campaigns during the polarized Chavez years.
The president has lambasted his opponents as lackeys of the U.S., accusing them of "lies" and "fear-mongering."
The opposition has broadcast television ads telling viewers to say no to arbitrary layoffs and homeless children in the street.
Chavez opponents say they'll staff all of the more than 11,000 voting precincts throughout Venezuela in an effort to prevent government officials from engaging in vote fraud.
Chavez supporters have become a ubiquitous presence with their red t-shirts.
Asked why they support the president, they cite government anti-poverty programs that dispense food, health care and education, often with the assistance of Cuban teachers and doctors.
"They donated a hearing aid for my 12-year-old son," said Angie Medina, 27.
Felix Canache, a 55-year-old worker for a cement company nationalized by the government, said a government program allowed his son to get a high school degree and become an electrician.
"This country would fall into chaos without Chavez," said Pedro Romero, a 47-year-old copy machine repairman.
University student leaders have formed the vanguard of public opposition. They turned out tens of thousands of Chavez opponents for a street protest in the heart of Caracas eight days before the referendum.
"No is no," read one popular t-shirt, a reference to voters having already rejected Chavez's proposal in December 2007.
Another t-shirt mocked Chavez by printing an 1819 quotation from Simon Bolivar, the 19th century Venezuelan independence leader who's the president's hero.
"Nothing is as dangerous as letting the same citizen remain in power for a long time," read the Bolivar quote.
"I also want to be president," another t-shirt taunted.
Betty Duran, a 41-year-old school bus driver, was among the marchers.
"I don't want Venezuela to become another Cuba," Duran said. "That's what Chavez wants."
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85 Comments so far
Show AllWhat is this silly term "strongman"? I notice it is usually used for leaders who refuse to be puppets of the United States government.
Did any part of the article lie?
Just b/c you don't like the facts doesn't make them any less true.
If he is a true democratic leader as you claim he is then he ought to abide by the will of the people. IF they say no to unlimited terms then let that be it.
How progressive of you....
Do you advocate the killing of everyone who doesn't agree with you?
What the hell did you expect Steelgray, Valentine cards?
I expect people who call themselves progressives to not advocate violence.
Is that too much to ask from you guys?
So do I. "Chavez also has forged an anti-U.S. bloc, sending billions of dollars to Cuba, Bolivia and other like-minded nations in Latin America that oppose free trade and capitalism." Fox News could not say it better. Do CD finally accepted "fairness in media" doctrine so protituted in the US?
v.purto
CD can do a lot better than this. I was going to send you guys some $ today but will have to think about that a bit harder. I believe CD is a bit to isolated from the working class. You do a good job on some issues but this is disappointing.
Criminal gangs always receive subsidies from people who have no interest in seeing social advances consolidated. "See? The socialists are really power mongers who care nothing about victims of crime!" It's also a means of obliging a movement to make choices between continuing social progress or putting money, energy & personnel into police forces.
Terrible article filled with lies.
take it down !
"Chavez also has forged an anti-U.S. bloc, sending billions of dollars to Cuba, Bolivia and other like-minded nations in Latin America that oppose free trade and capitalism."
Yes Chavez has his problems, but opposition to free trade and corporatism is one of his redeeming qualites. You can include me and I suspect most CD readers of being "like-minded" in opposition to free trade.
CD, this article is dispicable.
"I also want to be president," another t-shirt taunted.
And the wearer of that T-shirt can still be president! All he has to do is become a leader of an opposing party and convince the Venezuelan people that he can do a better job.
There are certainly well-reasoned arguments against or for term limits, but the idea that it will create a "President for life" is complete nonsense. The referendum isn't canceling elections, just term limits - on everyone down to the state level, including the political opponents of the Bolivarian Movement/PSUV.
The US doesn't have term limits for most of it's politicians either.
Strategically, the Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) needs to plan on losing this referendum and being less dependent on the charisma of Chavez. Then again, a forceful charismatic leader is needed against the 24-hour a day Venezuelan corporate media vitriol directed against him.
In these times we in the USA could dearly use a leader like Chavez to stand up against the scheming wall-street rich who are bringing our nation down.
---USAn---
USites? roflmao!!! wow, you america haters truly stop at nothing, do you?
No we don't stop. We especially hate Israeli war crime apologists such as yourself.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.", Albert Einstein.
Ed note: white phosphorous, dense metal super weapons, nuclear stick-up, missile defense, bailouts and propaganda!!
More trollery. BTW you spelled your name wrong, shouldn't be Mossad?
"All he has to do is become a leader of an opposing party and convince the Venezuelan people that he can do a better job."
-That is unless Chavez has him banned from running in the election which is sadly a habit he has grown accustomed to.
It's easy to win elections when you ban the leading opposition candidates.
By the way, you aren't at all bothered by the fact that he has admitted to using state funds for his referendum?
http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/venezuela-2009-02.pdf
Chavez is my hero, live with it USA!
I say, your state of LA just like mine of OK could sure use a Hugo Chavez just about any day.
Hey, if I'm not mistaken, your state Congress of OK has passed some legislation that calls for a level of sovereignty from the federal government and its fascist executive orders. Rep. Charles Key was the sponsor. I gotta applaud that move if it's true.
OK and LA rely on federal funding and often recieve more in federal funding than they pay in taxes. If they seceded like that, they'd go flat broke as if things aren't bad enough over there. And I was already fed up with my state of MD being a donor state ! No offense to those two states. The people aren't the problem. It's those dirty pols that are giving those two a bad rap.
Hi Marlene: No offense taken, honest. I understand your frustration regarding LA. Nearly all the Louisiana delegation voted against the stimulus package, even though Louisiana still stands to get several hundreds of millions of dollars from it. I posted on NOLA live (The Times Picayune's on line site) that Louisiana should not be hypocrites and give the money back. Gotta love our politicians, they want it both ways. They want to go on record opposing the stimulus, but they still want the benefits.
You should see some of the insane responses posted in my local newspaper site even as Obama explained why his package would help. They're pretty much similar to these partisan Republican pols.
http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=11&articleid=20090204_298_0_OKLAHO475853
Here's our state vote tally
http://www.kjrh.com/news/local/story/The-economic-stimulus-package-passed-so-what-does/w1EPHZMO7USezfpbUUZO-w.cspx
Even the Blue Dog Dan Boren woke up and used his brain for once. Normally, he votes with the GOP on most things especially the war but for once I congratulate him. It's funny how these same GOP congresspeople who passed all of Bush's bills now complain about not having the chance to read Obama's bills when in fact they had plenty of time and are inventing excuses yet again.
Hi Peter: Inhofe and Vitter! They are both pieces of work aren't they? Appreciate you posting the info. Thanks and take care!
Hi winning ticket.
Same here. It's gonna be a long road to correcting the looney tune behavior out here in the reds. I don't know how long our oil fields will last but it will be interesting to see what happens if/when the oil runs out.
Marlene,
They aren't seceding. Various state congresses (Oklahoma being one of the first) are merely re-emphasizing a semblance of sovereignty under the 10th Amendment to the Constitution. I believe the intention is to have some sort of legal backing to refuse cooperating with federal mandates to exercise martial law, if and when a "national emergency" happens. It is House Joint Resolution 1089, and it was authored by Rep. Charles Key.
Here are a couple links. The first is a report on it, and the second is a copy of the resolution itself. If the links don't work, just do a search on "resolution 1089".
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=67229
http://disc.yourwebapps.com/discussion.cgi?disc=149495;article=119309;
Peace,
John
Most definately!
I still buy at Citgo when I can...yes I do
But i think that all these Iconic revolutionaries should have left many avenues for the younger leadership to rise to the occasion and their destiny,
When they think that they are the Revolution or that it can't go on without them, that is the moldy spot of corruption that hits every organization the bigger they are the more they fail.... it is diseconomy of scale which the government and system will find it inconvenient to explain.
Gotta pass that torch and keep it goin.
The guy is not perfect. Most leftist politicians bungle some economic initiative or other.
Neither is he some monster like Dick Cheney would have people imagine. Cheney orchestrated a violent coup against Chavez, which failed. Then Chavez won another term.
In the end he's done lots of good things for his people so he's going to get a lot of votes. That happens to politicians.
Would anyone have had a problem if Bush had lifted term-limits for life?
The framers of the Constitution set no limits on the number of terms a president could serve. After FDR won four terms, the Reptiles were afraid of a repeat & managed to constitutionally limit the number of terms. Without that, Clinton (a president I very much disliked for all his corporatism) would probably have been able to win the presidency four times also. Reagan could have won a third term as well.
I betcha' Clinton would of won if he ran a third time....
Didn't he?
Oh wait. That last one was Hillary. My mistake.
As always, Joe, your logic is impeccable.
President Chavez - you can't have missed this - is not "lifting term-limits", he is running a national referendum to amend the Venezuelan Constitution.
(The "for life" part you add is meaningless, lifting term-limits does not grant the position "for life", they still have elections.)
i could answer your question, "Yes i would have a problem if Bush lifted term-limits", but that is not related to what Chavez is doing.
If you want to ask a related question, try "Would anyone have had a problem if Bush had sought a constitutional amendment to abolish presidential term-limits?" (The US does not have a national referendum for this, amending the US Constitution requires action by the states and the congress, or for the congress to convene a constitutional convention.)
There seems to be some kind of pattern in the way you phrase questions to us here at Common Dreams...
For a "dictator" Chavez sure has exhibitted a lot of democratic tendencies. Like abiding by the results of 9 or 10 fully vetted and free elections. Including a recall and one which he lost.
Oh well, Chavez isn't Pinochet. Alas, alas. If he were then maybe we would like him. Afterall, Pinochet knew who was boss. That seems to be Chavez's greatest problem.
He wants to do things his own way. He has taken power from the oligarchs and hopes to make life better for the Venezuelan poor. We can't have that, can we?
Let's hope, by the way, that he doesn't finally become a strongman. I'm not entirely sure he won't. After all, the US appears to be doing everything in its power to force him in that direction, rather than welcoming him to the fraternity of democracies. With respect for what he's trying to do.
But since that's not what WE want - to repeat - then that's not good.
The US 'founding fathers' opposed term limits and viewed them as anti-democratic (read The Federalist Papers if you do not believe me). They said voters should be able to vote for a candidate as many times as they want to, which is all that the Venezuelans are trying to change in their country's constitution via referendum.
The problem is they already did vote.
Chavez seems to think that he can hold the vote as many times as he wants until he gets the result he likes...that is not democracy!!
You say let the people decide well they already did now your simply not following the will of the people...
The previous constitutional referendum addressed more issues than just term limits. Furthermore, there is no limit on the amount of times that a government can hold a referendum on any topic.
The previous referendum included things such as 6 hour work days....hardly something the people would have been against.
The protest were against the term limit removal and you are lying if you claim otherwise.
Yeah globalists would never do something like rerunning a dead horse like the EU Constitution would they SG? Yet SUDDENLY and magically since that supports the corporate economic elite I suspect you support the EU Constitution being rammed down Europe's throat by however many votes it takes, right SG?
Why do you assume i favor the EU Constitution?
You should ask me my opinion before you go ranting....
You must be a member of the Chavez administration...always teargassing those pesky student protesters.
Well do you support the EU Constitution? If you don't I wouldn't let all your global corporatist frat boy buddies know that, they'd probably give you a swirly for questioning the inherent goodness of the New World Order.
I personally don't think it's a good think and further i really don't like how it's being pushed even after it was voted down. How is it that a no doesn't really mean a no but if it's approved then there is no turning back?
Yes is absolute but no means nothing...
Every politician of in every ideology does this and it is sick.
I never joined a frat, i always thought the were a joke.
Why do corporations get such a bad rap? I know they have there flaws but isn't it hypocritical?
Everybody has trashed them but now that layoffs are being made everybody is worried about corporate America. If you hate corporations then you should be cheering right now.....
Some of us do think this recession/depression could be good in helping us relocalize and be less materialistic but that does have to be done as a soft landing that doesn't screw the poor, Chavez to get back on topic IS working in that direction but doing things like supporting small farmers and small local media collectives.
Just can't ever seem to get any article in the US press about some leader our government doesn't like without it using the word "strongman" or "hardline", can we? Ahmadinejad gets it thrown at him, so does Chavez . . . as did countless others before them.
Why don't we ever hear those words describe the American Bully-in-Chief?
It's too bad McClatchy cared to call Chavez a 'strongman', for he has conviction, is affirmative, ... alright, but he's not a strongman if we consider those of the U.S. and its allied govts, military forces, mercenaries, drug lords, proxy govt leaders, etcetera. When we carefully consider the whole of this, then Chavez definitely does not appear to be a 'strongman'.
The article says, "The opposition has broadcast television ads telling viewers to say no to arbitrary layoffs and homeless children in the street".
That's odd, given it's Chavez and his govt that alleviated poverty, and very much so, in Venezuela, while the govts of Ven. that the U.S. and its real ruling elites like caused major and widespread poverty for a [huge] number of Venezuelans, a serious majority if I'm recalling correctly from vague memory.
People saying the above should carefully consider this next set of words from this article:
"Chavez supporters have become a ubiquitous presence with their red t-shirts.
Asked why they support the president, they cite government anti-poverty programs that dispense food, health care and education, often with the assistance of Cuban teachers and doctors.
...
Felix Canache, a 55-year-old worker for a cement company nationalized by the government, said a government program allowed his son to get a high school degree and become an electrician."
If Chavez's opponents really want to beat him, then they should try doing so with truth, fairness, ..., instead of lies, greed, ....
What McClatchy quotes of the university students, these opponents of Chavez and this coming referendum, says indicates that they wish to speak only half-truths.
Quote: "Another t-shirt mocked Chavez by printing an 1819 quotation from Simon Bolivar, the 19th century Venezuelan independence leader who's the president's hero.
"Nothing is as dangerous as letting the same citizen remain in power for a long time," read the Bolivar quote."
Bolivar was possibly right, but if we truly believe in democracy and really want a real democracy, then term limits being strictly imposed, instead of becoming effective through what voters decide on voting days, is to be anti-democratic. It'd be to dictate that The People of a democratic country can't choose based on their democratic rights to re-elect a particular person to office as many times as they wish, when this is what they wish to do. It should be up to voters at each election to decide whether or not an incumbent or past political office holder is elected and who gets to be newly elected.
People who fear that eliminating term limits will be bad for democracy are people who, wittingly or not, allow this fear to cause them to act anti-democratically, like a bunch of little dictator wannabes.
What that fear is evidently based upon is the lack of trust in The People of a democratic society to vote well, instead of electing bad, and worse, candidates to political office(s). It is then not the candidates who are the problem, but the voters, the electorate, so the real mission, say, should be to [educate] the population of voters, to sensitize them about the important issues, and to do so honestly and adequately enough for them to be able to well understand what's at stake or in question.
The problem with rotten candidates is not that they running in electoral campaigns to try to be elected, but that they're not indicted, prosecuted, and convicted or sentenced as they should be, and that the electorate, voters, are sickeningly perverted and dumb animals, continuously electing rotten to hellishly rotten candidates to offices of govt. The latter is clearly the fault of the voters, while the former is evidently the fault of the justice systems not seeing to indicting, and so on, political candidates who are provably or known to be criminal and to an extent that they should be firmly prohibited from being able to run for office or, perhaps anyway, to be able to even vote.
I'm not for fixed term limits. I'm for real democracy and if we want that, then we have to understand that everything really worthwhile doesn't come easily; it requires struggle, patience, endurance, perseverence.
Chavez is not preventing others from running for or in the next presidential election, as the person wearing the T-shirt saying "I also want to be president" clearly would like people to believe. If that person really wants to run for the presidency, then he or she surely can and just needs to gather the necessary funding and support to be able to make a real electoral campaign last until election day. If the person can't manage to do this, then the person's a damn fool and whining little sh*t for pretending that he or she would have even a slightly remote chance of winning in the presidential election.
Besides, there's only one president, so NOT everyone can get to become president ... of a country, or even a small organisation. There'll always be far fewer people in presidential offices than there will be among or for the rest of us!
Time for people of democracies who keep saying they want democracies to cease their whining little sh*t brat ways and get with the democratic program for [real] democracy!
The reason for term limits is to counter the inherent advantage incumbency has.
The framers of the US Constitution condemned the idea of term limits as anti-democratic (read The Federalist Papers).
The Federalist Papers also condemned the Bill of Rights.
The Papers are truly great and i we had politicians today that were as smart as Hamilton, Madison, and Jay. It should be noted that the creators of Democracy, the Romans, had term limits on all elected positions. Further, Publious, the pseudonym under which the papers were published is the name of the Roman Consul who was required to wait several years before being eligible to run again.
I personally think that would be the best method.
I'm gonna have to take just a slight issue with the "creators of democracy" being the Romans. First of all, the word itself comes directly from the Greek: "demos" (people) + "kratei" (to be strong, to rule). The Greek city state of Athens (though not perfect in its manifestation of "democracy") were practicing forms of democracy and representative forms of government at the same time, and there, all male citizens participated in their government by direct vote, which can't be said for Rome. Neither, of course, allowed women the same rights.
If you REALLY want to get closer to the truth, even claiming the Greeks somehow invented this form of government is a bit disingenuous. That version stems from a very white male, Indo-European interpretation of history and "civilization". Many other cultures or tribes in other areas (and many of those being matriarchal in nature) were far closer to true democracy than the Greeks and Romans. They tend to be left out of the story, though.
And kudos for mentioning Publius!