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Galbraith on the Crash... It Has a Familiar Ring
James Galbraith picks up the argument for government intervention where his father left off. His prescription: Spend now, spend a lot, and spend some more.
Something like this: Buyers and sellers meet in the marketplace and strike their best bargains. Those may not always turn out to be perfectly fair or wise, but consumers generally know better than the government. Growth comes from the efforts of savers and entrepreneurs, so taxes on them must be kept low. Few argued about this stuff. Liberals just wanted to put a bigger social safety net underneath the markets; conservatives, not so much.
Jamie Galbraith says, 'Wherever he is, my dad is laughing." Now that all hell has broken loose, none of that seems obvious anymore. Consumers and businesses know what's best for them? Allow us to introduce the erstwhile homeowners of San Diego and Las Vegas, and the MBAs of Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Lehman Brothers.
The conventional wisdom about economics is up for grabs right now. We're not speaking here of the conventional wisdom in the economics profession - that moves pretty slowly, and is anyway less wedded to a caricature of infallibly rational markets than most people think. We mean the assumptions that lawmakers, businesspeople, journalists, and educated voters use when they talk about economic problems. Ideas that had been banished to the dustbin are suddenly back on the table, and last year's gadflies now seem as if they were ahead of the curve. Exhibit A: James K. Galbraith, go-to economist of Nation magazine-style liberalism, unabashed market skeptic, and rock-ribbed Keynesian since before Keynesianism was cool (again).
"Events have moved me to the center - I have not moved," says Galbraith, sipping coffee in his University of Texas office, which overlooks the presidential library of Lyndon B. Johnson, architect of the Great Society. It's December, and Galbraith has just returned from Washington, D.C., where he was one of five economists speaking in a closed-door session for House Democrats. In step with a former John McCain campaign advisor and a Clinton administration economist, he argued for a very, very big stimulus package.
"Every previous recession in my professional life has been a shock to a reasonably healthy system," says Galbraith, who is 57. "This is a general collapse of the core funding mechanism all across the country, and you don't know what the scale of the base case will be. The task is to come up with a large enough program to get ahead of this unknown tsunami coming our way."
So what do you call the $850 billion the Democrats asked for in January? For Galbraith, it's just a good start.
The name rings a bell, although probably a faint one if you're much under 40. Galbraith's father, the late economist John Kenneth Galbraith, was one of the most influential liberal intellectuals of his time. At the start of the World War II he was a top official at the Office of Price Administration, literally setting the price of a cup of coffee.
He was briefly an editor for this magazine, where, according to biographer Richard Parker, he played a crucial role in founder Henry Luce's efforts to popularize the ideas of economist John Maynard Keynes, a proponent of government intervention to maintain full employment. (Luce was a conservative, but not a very doctrinaire one.) The elder Galbraith later became an advisor to John F. Kennedy and then to Johnson, and was ambassador to India.
John Kenneth Galbraith was also a prolific writer. He actually coined the term "conventional wisdom" in his 1958 bestseller, The Affluent Society, a passionate argument for public spending that helped build the case for the Great Society programs. His 1955 history, The Great Crash: 1929, became a classic of market lore and cemented a popular view that capitalism just goes nuts from time to time.
Galbraith's reputation among economists is another matter: He barely has one, even though he taught economics at Harvard and served a year as president of the American Economic Association. Milton Friedman, the great free-market economist of the 20th century, told NPR that Galbraith was more of a sociologist than an economist. Even the liberal Paul Krugman wrote him off in 1994 as a "policy entrepreneur" not to be taken seriously for economics.
The sympathetic view is that at a time when economics was taking a mathematical turn, Galbraith stuck to writing in plain English, paying attention to the way real people in positions of power deviated from sterile models. "Galbraith insisted on taking the corporation as the central modern institution, not the market," says Parker.
Galbraith wrote about an economy dominated by unions and giant corporations like GM and IBM. Consumers and their choices hardly mattered - technocrats used scale and advertising to generate their own demand, and co-opted government to protect their markets. After the onslaught of Japanese imports in the 1980s and the technological disruption of the 1990s, that picture of the impregnable corporation was easy for critics to dismiss.
But this is a story about James Galbraith - why spill so much ink on his father? First, because Galbraith fils is proud to call himself, well, a Galbraithian. And it seems to be a very Galbraithian moment. In time, economists may settle on a neat model that explains the current chaos, and even identify some deft intervention that might have prevented it. Right now, though, the stories in the headlines are messy tales about corporations and people: lenders and mortgage brokers who stoked an artificial demand for housing, regulators who dropped the ball, and a speculative bubble reminiscent of the one described in The Great Crash: 1929.
"In the past four months The Great Crash has been the No. 1 bestseller on Amazon in both microeconomics and economic theory," says the son. "Wherever he is, my dad is laughing."
James Galbraith - his friends call him Jamie - completed his Yale doctorate in economics in 1981. "I probably started my career in economics thinking that the overlap between my father's career and mine would be relatively short," he says. In fact his father, who died in 2006 at 97, still had a shelf's worth more books in him. "After a while I just got used to the fact that his presence in my professional life was going to be a lot more prominent than initially imagined, and that there was simply ... no ... escape," he says, smiling and raising his eyebrows to punctuate those last words.
Galbraith came into economics via politics, working as a Democratic staffer on the Hill through grad school. In 1981 he became executive director of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. The economy had been racked by stagflation, and a sort of consensus Keynesianism - the notion that the government could "fine-tune" a market economy with its taxing and spending decisions - had fallen into disrepute. The Keynesians "just didn't have a good theory of how to get out of inflation," recalls Bruce Bartlett, Galbraith's Republican opposite number on the JEC. There was a new conservative orthodoxy: Let the Federal Reserve keep inflation at bay with tight monetary policy, and otherwise get government out of the way.
In his 2008 book, The Predator State, Galbraith strikes a rather bitter chord about the time - "This was personal: The conservative alliance devalued my Keynesian education, obstructed my career, and deprived me and my few comrades on Capitol Hill of purchase on the levers of power." In conversation, however, he allows that he enjoyed those years immensely.
From his father and during his time as a Marshall Scholar at Cambridge University, Galbraith had imbibed a different brand of Keynesianism from the version that had just been swept away. It was a Keynesianism that emphasized capitalism's instability. Galbraith also held the view that high-employment policies need not spur inflation. Thus, he became a perfect sparring partner for the supply-siders and free-market monetarists. "They believed in their ideas and were willing to defend them," says Galbraith. "You could schedule an unending series of hearings and have these debates out in the open."
Bartlett, who later became a friend, recalls Galbraith's skill in debate. For one hearing on unemployment, Galbraith invited a group of jobless people to address the committee. One told the Congressmen that he had attempted suicide. "CBS radio ran that the whole day," Galbraith recalls.
Galbraith left Washington in 1985 and went to Austin, where he lives just off campus with his wife, Ying Tang, and their two children. Galbraith teaches in UT's public-policy school (named after L.B.J.), not in the economics department. He's first to admit that the mainstream of academic economics hasn't made much room for him. "For the most part, for people like me or people who work on financial instability ... all the doors [have been] closed," he says.
Unlike his father, Galbraith has done a fair amount of data-driven empirical work, largely on economic inequality. Outside academic journals he reaches a wider audience through liberal magazines like The Nation and Mother Jones, where he has a frequent column.
His book The Predator State is aimed at a similar readership, and it's a conscious effort to pick up the argument John Kenneth Galbraith left off. (The afterword notes that the father suggested the idea for the book in their final conversation, saying, "It will make you the leading economic voice of your generation.") It hit bookstores at an almost perfect moment last summer, just before the wheels came off the system.
Galbraith argues that "small government" conservatives never actually delivered free markets or fiscal restraint. In power, they grew deficits and didn't seriously attack public spending built up in the New Deal and Great Society. Rather, they've harnessed government for private gain. It's a clever attempt to defuse one of the most powerful arguments against government intervention - that picking winners and losers invites corruption and favoritism. Show that both parties have their own version of big government, and you can shift the debate to whose brand voters should prefer.
Republicans have an especially lousy brand right now, so the argument resonates. Free-market economists, of course, believe the moment will pass. "I don't think government will do a very good job getting us out of the crisis," says George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen. "Three years from now there will be a lot of handwringing and skepticism about why we have all this debt, and how taxes are going up, and did the stimulus really work."
During the presidential campaign, Galbraith was an informal advisor to the Obama team. This was largely a matter of sending e-mail memos, but it helped soothe progressives who worried that the rest of Obama's economic team was drawn from the centrist, Robert Rubin wing of the party.
And in the midst of the present crisis, Galbraith's voice reaches beyond the lefty netroots. Last September he played a small role in the Capitol Hill battle over the TARP bailout. On the eve of the failed House vote Galbraith, along with another prominent liberal economist, Dean Baker, and former FDIC chairman William Isaac, spoke before a group of 40 skeptical Democratic members in a basement room of the Capitol, laying out the flaws of the Paulson plan. (Galbraith, alone among that group, recommended voting for it anyway: "I didn't think Democrats should take responsibility for this bill going down.")
Galbraith was on the Hill thanks to an invitation from California Representative Adam Schiff, a fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrat who had read a Galbraith op-ed in the Washington Post proposing an alternative plan. "I was concerned we were not getting a broad enough spectrum of opinion from economists," says Schiff, who voted against the first version of the bailout bill in part, he says, because of Galbraith's critique. Galbraith recommended raising the cap on federal deposit insurance and allowing the Treasury to buy preferred shares in banks; both ultimately happened. He also called for a bigger, more direct homeowner rescue and a massive increase in federal spending.
Even in today's climate Galbraith sits at the leftward edge of polite political conversation. He jokes that he is doing his best to make Larry Summers look like a moderate. Economists across the spectrum, from Krugman to former Reagan economic advisor Martin Feldstein, have blessed the idea of a fiscal stimulus. But Galbraith thinks it needs to be huge and should provide fast, direct aid to people in the form of higher Social Security payments and slashed payroll taxes.
For Galbraith, this is about more than a temporary stimulus. He thinks the crisis is proof that the economy needs the very visible hand of government to ensure long-term stability. And although he concedes that the pervasive wartime price controls administered by his father wouldn't make sense today, he sees lots of room for government to set wage standards (including caps on CEO pay) and to control prices in key sectors like energy and health care.
Put so baldly, it seems unlikely that this agenda would get much traction in Washington. Then again, the first steps toward nationalizing the banking system came under a Republican administration. Or look at the health-care debate. Almost every liberal reform proposal making the rounds attempts to tackle, in some way, the relentless rise in the cost of health care. Perhaps Galbraith's most urgent contribution is mainly rhetorical: the idea that it's okay to speak about "planning" again.
At what looks like a turning point in American economic history, the rhetoric matters. In the early 1980s, supply-siders like Jude Wanniski and Art Laffer may have had few allies in the ranks of academic economists, but through their popular writing and the Wall Street Journal editorial page, they convinced a generation that laissez faire was common sense.
One might expect Galbraith to bristle at the comparison, but he doesn't. He keeps an autographed copy of Wanniski's The Way the World Works on his bookshelf; the two men became friends in the years before Wanniski's death in 2005. "It's fun, 30 years later, to have some of the chance they did," he says.
Unless the markets pull off a miracle this year, the fun's just getting started.
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Show AllHector -- I've heard half a dozen interviews with James Galbraith since the election. In my view, no one else I've heard comes close to Galbraith's knowledge of what has worked and what has not worked in addressing past economic crises, nor the congency of what he urges now, based on what has and has not worked in the past, nor his grasp of the capacities of the institutuions established in the New Deal, New Frontier and Great Society. That he's not centrally and effectively involved in shaping the US response to the current circumstances is gravely unfortunate. It may be that his tendency to refer to those responsible for those circumstances as "thugs" and more generally his often accusaotry comments about past conduct have limited his centrality and effectiveness. Whatever the cause, the relative modesty of his influence is a great loss.
"He thinks the crisis is proof that the economy needs the very visible hand of government to ensure long-term stability."
That's not the problem - the problem is that the bodies the government hands are connected to earn $170K/year. So, when offered $1 million to do the wrong thing, (or lots of millions and guarantees of lifetime super-high paying private employment,) few, if any, can say no.
And the real reason this problem is unsolvable is because most of us would do the same thing in a heartbeat...
"In time, economists may settle on a neat model that explains the current chaos, and even identify some deft intervention that might have prevented it."
Doubtful. When science studies show that economists have a worse record of correct predictions than bookies do, economist's explanations are whatever they want them to be.
Here are some of John Kenneth Galbraith's thoughts on economy and more:
Economics is a subject profoundly conducive to cliche, resonant with boredom. On few topics is an American audience so practiced in turning off its ears and minds. And none can say that the response is ill advised.
Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
Few can believe that suffering, especially by others, is in vain. Anything that is disagreeable must surely have beneficial economic effects.
In economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension and also a deep desire for respectability.
In economics, the majority is always wrong.
It is a far, far better thing to have a firm anchor in nonsense than to put out on the troubled seas of thought.
Liberalism is, I think, resurgent. One reason is that more and more people are so painfully aware of the alternative.
One of the greatest pieces of economic wisdom is to know what you do not know.
People who are in a fortunate position always attribute virtue to what makes them so happy.
Politics is the art of choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable.
John Kenneth Galbraith
The great dialectic in our time is not, as anciently and by some still supposed, between capital and labor; it is between economic enterprise and the state.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.
The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled.
The salary of the chief executive of a large corporation is not a market award for achievement. It is frequently in the nature of a warm personal gesture by the individual to himself.
There is something wonderful in seeing a wrong-headed majority assailed by truth.
There's a certain part of the contented majority who love anybody who is worth a billion dollars.
Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite.
War remains the decisive human failure.
We all agree that pessimism is a mark of superior intellect.
We can safely abandon the doctrine of the eighties, namely that the rich were not working because they had too little money, the poor because they had much.
Wealth is not without its advantages and the case to the contrary, although it has often been made, has never proved widely persuasive.
Wealth, in even the most improbable cases, manages to convey the aspect of intelligence.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Another favorite...
Among Harvard men, it is not important that an individual be intelligent, but he does have to be superior.
Galbraith Sr. had the vision.
A Short History of Financial Euphoria by John Kenneth Galbraith, 1990
Intelligence and Money
In all free-enterprise attitudes there is a strong tendency to believe that the more money, either as income or assets, of which he is associated, the deeper and more compelling his economic and social perception, the more astute and penetrating his mental processes. Money is the measure of capitalistic achievement. The more money, the greater the achievement and the intelligence that it supports.
There are those who are persuaded that some new price-enhancing circumstance is in control, and they expect the market to stay up and go up, perhaps indefinitely. It is adjusting to a new situation, a new world of greatly, even infinitely increasing returns and resulting values. Then there are those, superficially more astute and generally fewer in number, who perceive or believe themselves to perceive the speculative mood of the moment. They are in to ride the upward wave; their particular genius, they are convinced, will allow them to get out before the speculation runs it course. They will get the maximum reward from the increase as it continues; they will be out before the eventual fall.
For built into this situation is the eventual and inevitable fall. Built in also is the circumstance that it cannot come gently or gradually. When it comes, it bears the grim face of disaster.
The Great Crash 1929 by John Kenneth Galbraith, 1954
In the autumn of 1929, the mightiest of Americans were, for a brief time, revealed as human beings. Like most humans, most of the time, they did some very foolish things. On the whole, the greater the earlier reputation for omniscience, the more serene the previous idiocy, the greater the foolishness now exposed. Things that in other times were concealed by a heavy facade of dignity now stood exposed, for the panic suddenly, almost obscenely, snatched this facade away.
All these overeducated Morons seem to have the floor. The reason we are in this
depression is because of the Ivy Leaguers like the Bush Family and
Bubba Clinton who sold out our industrial base to China, making Walmart the only one in this country to gain from the scam.
Take Obama for istance, he simply does not have a clue, he grew up in a
system where he was given all those minority advantages and take a good look
at how he became a Senator in Ill.
The Ivy Leagues seems to have brainwahsed these overeducated idiots who simply
do not have a clue as to what is going on. A stimulus is being used as a
diversionary tactic to get your mind of the real reason, {China} we are in this
major depression that we will never recover from unless we rebuild our industrial
base very quick. "The New World Order" and "Globalization" might be working for
Bushees and the Clintonites, but is has ruined the country and the working classes have been doomed into a third world economy and they will accept it, because they
have nothing else. It's time for another Million-Man march on Washington.
OK, you're slightly irritated by jobs gone to China. But, if we can get the stimulus package done right, there's lots of worthwhile jobs building windmills and the electric grid (Mr. Kilowatt), public transportation, bridges, water and sewer upgrades, and on and on. I'm talking about stuff that will make our nation and planet better for decades to come. The real problem is not China or globalization, but politicians who feel obligated to do the bidding of entrenched, moneyed interests.
The politicians are the "entrenched, moneyed interests." This is a plutocracy.
shellbeach
Obama is trying to mediate between the two sides. First he must award his financial supporters...the big ones on Wall Street and elsewhere. But in reality, he should have planned on being a one term President and plowed straight ahead for
shellbeach
Obama is trying to mediate between the two sides. First he must award his financial supporters...the big ones on Wall Street and elsewhere. But in reality, he should have planned on being a one term President and plowed straight ahead for the people. Now both sides will not think well of his administration and we are less than one month into it. As with any President new to office, one comes into office with preconceived ideas of action, only to find that it does not work that way all the time. So Obama, ditch the ideas and get this country rolling again. NOT by bailing out banks and Wall Street, but helping the people. Oh yes, I forgot. After not having an elected President/Vice President for eight years, are we looking forward to skullduggery on the next sElection in 2012? I hope not. Robert Reich has it right!
Give the people money. They will spend it or save it in the banks who will then have the money
to lend to others.
Bill Walz
Here we are in the karmic fallout of a society dedicated to insatiable materialism where the society and its people are in the service of their capitalist economy. Well the economy has tanked on its own excesses and is taking the society and the people with it. Perhaps we can now begin to think about building an economy in the service of the society and its people. One where $500k salaries are not discussed as "only" and "sacrifices", but rather the top income possible, and where no one earns less than $25k for an honest year's labor. Where health care and pensions are the government's responsibility, not commodities for profit. Where cultivation and preservation of culture, the arts and the environment are seen as national duties. Oh, does this smack of socialism? Tough! Capitalism has taken us into its inevitable dead-end. Perhaps we ought be taking some lessons from our friends in Western Europe who seem to have found a more rational blend of enterprise and social reponsibility. J.K. Galbraith was a rational voice in money-crazed society. Well, craziness leads to disaster. And for all you right-wing capitalist evangelists, What was it that Jesus said about it being easier for a camel to pass throught the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the Kingdom of Heaven? Oh that commie Jesus!
Bob$$$ says:
The BIG LIE that was perpetrated by the colleges and universities in text books about Economics was the change in the definition of GDP, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT.
In the Forties, the definition of GDP was the total goods and services PRODUCED by our Society.
In the late Forties and early Fifties, that was transformed to “…the total CONSUMPTION of Goods and Services by our Society”. At first, the use was said to be interchangeable. Now, it is considered the only “true definition of GDP.”
Today, they say that 70 % of GDP is what is consumed by our Society.
THIS IS THE WORKING PLAN FOR THE ECONOMIC BETRAYAL OF AMERICA.
The AGENDA was to change the economic measure of our Economy so the people would accept corporate internationalization and outsourcing of production.
The Measurement of Production in the Nation was surreptitiously substituted by Consumption Statistics.
Is it just an accident that the MEDIA’s economists use this fraudulent definition of GDP?
Can anyone say it is NOT a major LIE to include CONSUMERS’ purchases of FOREIGN GOODS AND SERVICES in tabulating the Gross DOMESTIC Product of the United States?
It causes a global tragedy because the Meltdown of Consumption in the U.S. has caused international contractions in the economies of the world which have become our PRODUCTION functionaries.
Furthermore, the continued use of this fraudulent definition of GDP has led to the loss of our Economic Leadership in the World.