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New intelligence Report says Pakistan Is 'On The Edge'
WASHINGTON - A growing al Qaida-backed insurgency, combined with the Pakistani army's reluctance to launch an all-out crackdown, political infighting and energy and food shortages are plunging America's key ally in the war on terror deeper into turmoil and violence, says a soon-to-be completed U.S. intelligence assessment.
Pakistani troops patrol in the troubled Bajaur agency in September. Troops and helicopter gunships killed about 40 Taliban militants while four people were injured in a roadside bomb in northwest Pakistan. The NIE on Pakistan, along with others being prepared on Afghanistan and Iraq, will underpin a "strategic assessment" of the situation that Army Gen. David Petraeus, who's about to take command of all U.S. forces in the region, has requested. (AFP/File/Aamir Qureshi) A U.S. official who participated in drafting the top secret National Intelligence Estimate said it portrays the situation in Pakistan as "very bad." Another official called the draft "very bleak," and said it describes Pakistan as being "on the edge."
The first official summarized the estimate's conclusions about the state of Pakistan as: "no money, no energy, no government."
Six U.S. officials who helped draft or are aware of the document's findings confirmed them to McClatchy on the condition of anonymity because NIEs are top secret and are restricted to the president, senior officials and members of Congress. An NIE's conclusions reflect the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies.
The NIE on Pakistan, along with others being prepared on Afghanistan and Iraq, will underpin a "strategic assessment" of the situation that Army Gen. David Petraeus, who's about to take command of all U.S. forces in the region, has requested. The aim of the assessment - seven years after the U.S. sent troops into Afghanistan - is to determine whether a U.S. presence in the region can be effective and if so what U.S. strategy should be.
The findings also are intended to support the Bush administration's effort to recommend the resources the next president will need for Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan at a time the economic crisis is straining the Treasury and inflating the federal budget deficit.
The Afghanistan estimate warns that additional American troops are urgently needed there and that Islamic extremists who enjoy safe haven in Pakistan pose a growing threat to the U.S.-backed government of Afghan Prime Minister Hamid Karzai.
The Iraq NIE is more cautious about the prospects for stability there than the Bush administration and either John McCain or Barack Obama have been, and it raises serious questions about whether the U.S. will be able to redeploy a significant number of troops from Iraq to Afghanistan anytime soon.
Together, the three NIEs suggest that without significant and swift progress on all three fronts - which they suggest is uncertain at best - the U.S. could find itself facing a growing threat from al Qaida and other Islamic extremist groups, said one of the officials.
About the only good news in the Pakistan NIE is that it's "relatively sanguine" about the prospects of a Pakistani nuclear weapon, materials or knowledge falling into the hands of terrorists, said one official.
However, the draft NIE paints a grim picture of the situation in the impoverished, nuclear-armed country of 160 million, according to the U.S. officials who spoke to McClatchy.
The estimate says that the Islamist insurgency based in the Federally Administered Tribal Area bordering Afghanistan, the suspected safe haven of Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants, is intensifying.
However, according to the officials, the draft also finds that the Pakistani military is reluctant to launch an all-out campaign against the Islamists in part because of popular opposition to continuing the cooperation with the U.S. that began under Pervez Musharraf, the U.S.-backed former president, after the 9/11 attacks.
Anti-U.S. and anti-government sentiments have grown recently, stoked by stepped-up cross-border U.S. missile strikes and at least one commando raid on suspected terrorist targets in the FATA that reportedly have resulted in civilian deaths.
The Pakistani military, which has lost hundreds of troops to battles and suicide bombings, is waging offensives against Islamist guerrillas in the Bajaur tribal agency and Swat, a picturesque region of the North West Frontier Province bordering Afghanistan. U.S. officials said insurgent attacks on Pakistani security forces provoked the Pakistani army operations.
The Pakistan general staff also remains concerned about what it considers an ongoing threat to its eastern border from its traditional foe, India, the draft NIE finds, according to the U.S. officials.
For these reasons, they said, the army chief of staff, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, wants the new civilian coalition government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani to provide the military with political cover by blessing a major anti-insurgency crackdown.
However, the ruling coalition, in which President Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of the late prime minister Benazir Bhutto, holds the real authority, has been preoccupied by other matters, according to the draft NIE.
These include efforts to consolidate its power after winning a struggle that prompted its main rival, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, to leave the ruling coalition.
Moreover, widespread anti-U.S. anger has left the coalition deeply divided over whether to unleash a major military assault on the Islamists, the U.S. officials said.
The government is also facing an accelerating economic crisis that includes food and energy shortages, escalating fuel costs, a sinking currency and a massive flight of foreign capital accelerated by the escalating insurgency, the NIE warns.
The Pakistani public is clamoring for relief as the crisis pushes millions more into poverty, giving insurgent groups more opportunities to recruit young Pakistanis.
Warren P. Strobel and Nancy A. Youssef contributed to this article.
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18 Comments so far
Show AllPermanent war. Mission accomplished.
Ripe for another OCCUPATION. Well done CIA and covert ops. The pillage and genocide continues.
Afghanistan/Pakistan; an occupation we can't win... along with Iraq.
Violence begets violence, there is no way for a military solution in these situations.
I expect someone to slap economic sanctions on them for not letting the U.S. drop bombs on Pakistan al-Qaida.
We say we are helping them when we are really terrorizing them until they fall in line with OUR thinking.
It's called rule by shock doctrine.
It's like musical chairs isn't it? First it's Syria then it's N. Korea then I-ran -notice how quiet it has been on Iran in the last couple of months -that's because Iran has been using its influence to broker and calm things down in Iraq. Yes, the US has actually had to talk to them! So the rhetoric for the (Fox) masses must be toned down for a while. But don't worry, soon it will be iran's turn once again. It wouldn't do to ignore them for too long, would it now?
But first Pakistan must have its turn at the 'evil of the week' propped up by properly spun, extruded and shaped disinformation to desensitise and influence the minds of those incapable of independent and critical thought.
It's more like a house of cards.
"The credit default swaps (CDS) for Argentina, Pakistan, and Ecuador are flashing warnings of insolvency, while the Baltic States, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey are at risk as it becomes harder to finance current account deficits."
The article concludes with, "The Pakistani public is clamoring for relief as the crisis pushes millions more into poverty, giving insurgent groups more opportunities to recruit young Pakistanis."
PERHAPS there's much of that sort of switching to support or become active members of an insurgency, i.e., resistance, group or militia, but I've read, and find credible, that the opposite can turn out to be the real truth, sometimes anyway; and depending on each context considered. When the situation is such that a general population can be moved into becoming more opposed to resistance-fighting groups, as well as to themselves, though unwittingly, then this can be very profitable to the rich and ruling "elites", who desire to crush La Resistance. When such "elites" win in such ways, then it means or can mean ever more widespread slavery conditions for the general population and not only for the resistance fighters; but can also mean increased police state oppression, repression, ... dictatorship, and so on.
Well, in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, the general populations aren't blind; many see through the "smoke screens" of the aggressing imperialists, etc., and their puppets who purportedly run their puppet govt and also in purportedly respectful, just, ... terms. Only 'purportedly' though. We don't need mere words, we need verifiable facts and related claims. After all, the U.S. and Israel, and without meaning to exclude other countries or govts this also applies to, are purportedly democratic, respectful of human rights, and so on, yet the facts prove that the contrary is the truth; the extreme contrary, too.
A somewhat related analogy is the fact that the U.S. and Israel permit an Iranian boy to obtain surgical help in Israel, while denying Israeli doctors the right to go to Palestine in order to provide real humanitarian help there.
http://www.uruknet.info/?p=m47925
Is there anyway India could get sucked into this? We would be talking about major death and destruction, even nuclear, and a hostile Indian army occupying a hostile population under martial law.
India and Pakistan have worked hard to keep the peace after the many disastrous wars since they split. A radical Islamist government terrorizing Hindus in India is not the way to go. More blood on neocons' hands.
Whenever a country denies the Bush regime, Chaos always follows.
It seems there is very nearly a power vacuum in Pakistan.
If there is currently no organised resistance now, then
one will form after the US steps into the power vacuum.
If any sane person recognises this as a quagmire, I doubt
that Bush or McCain would think twice before stepping in.
Pakistan has 50 nuclear weapons. Whoops, 49 nuclear weapons.
haha...musical chairs...
anyway, I think India is already involved: by signing a nuclear deal w/ the U.S., and their past relationship with the Bush administration, they've made their loyalties pretty clear. I think whoever the next U.S. leader is, he will use this as leverage against Zardari, will compel him to promote a "crackdown" in his country unless he wants India to use its nuclear bombs.
Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace, with a dash or two of hegemony. This is what's now occurring in the Middle East. However, it has nothing to do with oil though! Not at all.
I really feel for the innocent people of Pakistan. It is so dam sad what's happening. And who is fomenting the violence? Nobody we know, right?
By the way, has anyone heard how things are going in Iraq? We hardly ever hear what is happening there. Are we winning? Have we lost anymore troops in this horrid and illegal war? etc. Is the Burger King still open inside the Green Zone? I suppose no news is good news? I don't think so.
The American people (sheople) are intentionally being kept out of the loop. They are now pre-occupied with other things, such as this rapacious bailout of Wall Street cronies, and their (contrived) crumbling (Global) economy.
Someone, anyone, please yell "CUT!"
Last night I was told by a Republican that the Iraqi people are begging the troops to stay.
She heard this from returning troops. (I live in a rural area where the only jobs available for the young are in the military. Or so they believe).
I guess they're talking to the Burger King employees in the Green Zone, because polls say the vast majority of Iraqis want us out.
Double post somehow. Sorry.
we didn't need a crystal ball to see this coming.............
Bush / Cheney fat cat right wing republican blunder boys.
While helping to increase the threat of terrorism globally they have ruined our ecomomy, divided our country, and lied thier asses off to put money in the pocket of their buddys,the Military Industrial complex and OPEC. 9/11 terrorists are supported and funded by who exactly. What a mystery?
At a cost of 10 billion dollars a month the US military have become security gaurds for the corporations tryng to gouge Iraq and Aphgnistan.
Wait , did I say gouge, I ment spread Democracy ( Right Wing Christian Values) using empire and capitalism.
But , here at home, if you speak out against this assinine government that has setup a Stazi Police state nationwide, you could end up in jail.
When will the Christian right realize that you can not support anti-abortion views and these wars that have killed one million Iraqs at the same time? What is a Christian?
Here is a wake up call for the Cristian right, this governmnet has placed spys in every church and club in this country. That includes Free Masons.
The anti-American fools in Washington have given this King the Patriot Act, and he has broekn his oath to protect the constitution. Which protect us from a runawy government.
The 4th amendment is gone, next is the first amendement.Freedom of religion, in case you Chrstian fanatics have forgotten is now in danger. But you are to stuborn to understand what that means.Who do you support?
Who will hear your crys when they come and take your guns and tell you that organized religion is a danger to the colective good, shut down your church.
Lets get out of Iraq and Aphganistan NOW. Let the corporations and the oil companys hire thier own secutriy gaurds. And Shit can the Patriot Act.
We won this war when Bush declared " Mission Accomplished " , thats when we should have packed up and gotten out of Iraq.
Aphganistan is a dissaster because we did not stay focused on the real war on terror.
But Bush / Cheney / Rumsfeld / Wolfiwtiz already new that, didn't they?
War is about money, always has been. Terrorist acts will be the kindling fuel for war for the next hundred years.
Buckle up, these bastards are just getting warmed up.
Wake up America.
BornFreeMen
Restore the Balance of power before its too late.
Here is what I was told by a Christian.
The Ten Commandments say don't murder, not don't kill. It is OK to kill, but not to murder. It is not murder to kill Iraqis, because they are terrorists. Iraqi children will grow up to be terrorists, so it's OK to kill them also.
It is wrong to kill American embryos, because Americans don't grow up to be terrorists.
&YYY&
The fuse has been lit, and Pakistan will be soon be in an exploding all out war.
The Vampire States could not afford the prolonged conflict in Afghanistan before, and even more so now. Because of tidal effects of financial disasters of VS making, NATO partners, are going to feel the same. Surge and Escalation just to hold current positions in Afghanistan are economically out of the question, and militarily pointless.
The economic crisis will affect military capabilities of already poor Islamic nations to a far lesser extent than the overburdened military bureaucratic machines of the West. So the Financial Crises have a far greater impact on military balance of power, even without necessary cuts to VS defence budgets.
Imagine the global financial economic consequences for these armed struggling tribes in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The VS will no longer be able to buy them off with extravagant bribes. It did not previously, cannot now, and will never afford aid for nation building in Afghanistan.
The VS cannot even rebuild its own tottering economy. More desperate armed conflict between tribal groups is inevitable. The VS and NATO forces will soon be thrown out of the South East Asian region, by the forces of Islamic extremists that have been created as a result of VS foreign policy.
The longer the VS tries to hold or gain from its impossible military positions, the quicker it will fail utterly.