Subscribe to Common Dreams News Updates
Most Popular This Week
- The Rise of the New Economy Movement
- Preying on Poverty: How Government and Corporations Use the Poor as Piggy Banks
- The Organic Watergate: Alarming Report Reveals USDA's Cozy Relationship with Corporate Agribusinesses in 'Organics'
- Updated: Under Pressure, TED Releases 'Income Inequality' Talk
- Are JPMorgan's Losses a Canary in a Coal Mine?


21 Comments so far
Show AllYou need to show this as a percentage of the population. The population in 1958 was about half what it is today. That is part of the reason there are more unemployed is there are more people.
no matter, there are more people being affected then
U.S. population 1930 123,202,624
U.S. population 1960 179,323,175
U.S. population 2000 281,421,906
U.S. population 2010
What matters is how long it takes to recover. As you can see the last recession, 2001, took the longest to recover with a population only about 6% smaller than current. Extrapolation of the combined plots shows how serious this is going to be. The 2001 plot took 4 years to recover. Expanding the current plot to match the average recovery time of the other plots gives us something on the average of 9 years and that's ONLY if things start improving immediately. A more likely trend is a recovery in 11 years with the worst case scenarios requiring 14 years or worse if there can be anything such thing.
Even without it being a percentage of the population, it's obvious it is going to take longer and longer to get back to zero (peak)..... if ever.
Look, this is seriously misleading for the reason edpell suggests, although I would think it should be shown as percentage of workforce rather than of total population. There is another figure along these lines in the blog the post is tied to, but most people aren't going to see that. Yes, the situation is very bad, of course. But it is NOT as bad as this graph suggests and by following the mainstream media crowd in focusing on such images without placing them in historical context you are fanning the flames of hysteria that are helping to make things even worse. We have enough things to be scared of without erroneously magnifying the bad news. If all we have to fear is fear itself, "news" like this is, indeed, scary. I am a regular and eager reader of Common Dreams, but if this is an indication of the care that goes into selecting news stories, I have to say that I'm forced to wonder what less obvious problems I've been missing. I hope I am not being overly critical--I know that selecting and screening this stuff must be a tough job, but this seems important enough that I feel the need to be frank. Thanks for considering this and for all the good work that goes into this site.
In 1958 the US was a manufacturing based economy. We made stuff, we were unionized, we had a real middle class and bank were just banks, not large financial institutions as they are today. The nations economy has changed from making stuff to shuffling paper in the form of bad debt and speculation. I agree with freeweeling above, it will take many years before we will ever reach that zero line, if ever.
Barry Ritzholt responds to criticism of his chart with the following:
1. The chart shows that the 2001 recession/job recovery was much longer than the 1991, which was much longer than 1982. Why would you think that is not significant?
2. Population is irrelevant, what matters is total civilian labor pool. Do you believe that the population OR the Labor Pool is so much larger today than it was 6 years ago? How about 18 years ago? We are discussing minor differences in total employment.
3. On a percentage basis , we are MUCH DEEPER than 2001 and 1991, and we are now about as deep as 1973 and 1985 — and they were already in the process of turning around. We show no signs of that yet.
On the question of the image this graph projects: sure, I agree there's not much difference between now and 2001, or even 1991. But your graph goes back to 1948. The further back you go, the greater the need to adjust for growth of the labor force, to present the percentage of jobs lost, not the total number. The other graph from the blog you cite does adjust for this, so why not use that? The only reason I can think of to use this one is that it presents a more alarming picture--it suggests that the situation now is far worse than in any post-war recession, whereas in fact, as you correctly state here, we're just even with '74 and '82. It's not "false" in any strict sense, but it seems to me misleading in terms of the message most people will take from it. Am I missing something?
Ah, for clarification, my problem was not with Barry Ritzholt. His site shows multiple graphs and gives a thorough picture. My concern was specifically with the editor's choice of which graph to present without explanation or context.
The author fixed the faulty vertical numbers scale here:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/joblossespostwarii.jpg
Thanks Earthian. The graph showing the percentage-of-jobs lost is more sensible than the one CD published showing jobs lost.
According to the adjusted chart (at the website posted by Erthian), then we are halfway to the bottom of the Great Depression. However, we now have twice the population, so it seems to me that the numbers equal out. We ARE in a depression now. The Republicans scream about worker productivity, but we don't produce much of anything anymore, we just push around pieces of paper or serve hamburgers. We need a complete overhaul of the country and a boatload of new representatives, plus a large number of CEOs rotting in jail.
It may be that modern recessions are longer (and shallower on a job loss percent scale) because the people are more dependent on monstrous elite enterprises today that move slower than human-scale enterprises that were more prevalent in the early 20th century. I've heard that the elites are trying to minimize job losses to maintain their stranglehold on the society. If they can steal money from the people's treasury to make the corporate payroll during a recession they'll sure do it.
Wheeeeeeee!!
...and the GOP candidates said our economy was basicly sound.
Absolute numbers, percentages, and time from peak are all important.
Wheeeeeeeeee! is right! Hang on to your hats- and your wallets, for the Cheney/Bush Great Depression! Wasn't it just the other day that the MSM first admitted that anything close to a recession was even remotely possible? I'm thinking that even Limborg fans are going to become a bit nauseous by this ride. They'll blame Obama of course, but their credibility is taking a similar slide!
First of all, the original source of these graphs should have been cited in this article, and Barry Ritholtz at Big Picture did. The original source is calculatedriskblog.com (CR).
Second, if the follow-up graph that was provided at CR and at Big Picture was posted here it would have answered some of the questions posed by readers of this article, because the follow-up graph normalizes the job losses by taking into account total labor force increases over time.
And by the way, danielsomers, the current job problem is as bad as the graph (the follow-up one) suggests. In fact, as a percentage of the labor force the current recession is on par with 1981, is on track for overtaking 1974 & 1958 in the next few months, and may very well overtake the 1948 recession for the worst job losses since the 1930's by sometime this summer. People are going to have to deal with the fact that we're in a lot of shit right now, and fundamentally we're in worse shape than before in terms of our ability to effectively solve the mess we're in (e.g., total debt to GDP = close to 400%, we're in hock galore to foreign governments, etc.).
"as a percentage of the labor force the current recession is on par with 1981 . . ."
Not according to the numbers. Check the graph again.
Well true, it's not on par quite yet with 1981, but the current recession is now on a steeper downward trajectory, and at the current rate of job losses (6 month moving avg.) it only needs about another month or two to get there!