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02.03.12 - 12:35 PM
Jobs In Pictures
For you visual learners, two telling charts to illustrate the day's news from the Labor Department that unemployment dropped in January to its lowest level in almost three years, with a net gain of 243,000 jobs. To be clear: The same jerks still run things, but it's good to see fewer people hurting from it.
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31 Comments so far
Show AllFirst of all, I have a difficult time believing that these numbers aren't being manipulated or enhanced based on the upcoming election. How curious it is that the so called unemployment rate is dropping as Obama approaches his bid for re-election.
More importantly, what kind of jobs are being created? When we are provided with the average wages of these jobs and whether benefit packages are included or not only then will I decide if this is good news or not. A new job that pays $9.00 an hour with no benefits is nothing to jump up and down about. Few can live on such a crap wage. Funny how the specifics are omitted in these reports.
It would be a simple matter to calculate the true unemployment rate by taking the number of working age people and comparing that to the number of W2s going to the government. Both figures are kept by the government and are available. Instead, an improbable and convoluted method is used to make employment look better than it is.
The true unemployment rate is somewhere in the low 20% range,
These reports of "such and such number of jobs created this month" are nonsense, since they do not take into account new people coming into the labor force (the rate of that is higher than the number of jobs being created) and they do not tell us what sorts of jobs are being "created." High paying and secure jobs were eliminated for the last few years, and now crappy low paying jobs are being "created."
The idea that jobs are being "created' is irritating, too. Billionaires are what are being "created," and they are being created by forcing us all into crappy jobs and dangerous and insecure employment situations.
The Fed Reserve has a name for that - Structural Insecurity for the workers of the USA -
And ZIRP for the banksters
Heads they win.... Tails we lose......
Or is it when democrats win they win - when republicans win we lose......
Either way We The People get the shaft and the bills.......
"More importantly, what kind of jobs are being created? When we are provided with the average wages of these jobs and whether benefit packages are included or not only then will I decide if this is good news or not. A new job that pays $9.00 an hour with no benefits is nothing to jump up and down about. Few can live on such a crap wage. Funny how the specifics are omitted in these reports."
And the statistical analysis needed to produce such figures isn't rocket science. It's as if the people in charge simply don't want to do, or show us, the calculations.
Commondreams should know better than to report the UE number w/out also referencing labor force participation.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12-million-people-fall-out-labor-force-one-month-labor-force-participation-rate-tumbles-?page=1
The rate continues to fall as the numbers are manipulated......
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/implied-unemployment-rate-rises-115-spread-propaganda-number-surges-30-year-high
The drop in labor force matched with lots of part time jobs explains the drop in the Unemployment rate.........
The population of "working-age" people in the U.S. is roughly 165 million. There are about 25+ million without jobs and about 15+ million who are under-employed.
.............The math is simple! The real unemployment rate based on 25+ million is 15+%. The real under-employed rate based on 15+ million is around 10%.
.............Calculated together, the unemployed and underemployed rate is closer to the 22% that John Williams at Shadowstats calculated.
Shadowstats is awesome. CD should be ashamed to print this Obama puffery.
Amended:
"Last Friday the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in the first month of this new year 243,000 jobs were created and the unemployment rate (U.3) fell to 8.3 percent. This good news is a mirage. It is due to faulty seasonal adjustments and to the BLS birth/death model. In a prolonged downturn, seasonal adjustments and the birth/death model produce nonexistent employment.
The unadjusted data show a rise in the unemployment rate. The birth/death model, which estimates the net effect of jobs lost from business failures and jobs created by new start-ups was designed for a normal growing economy, not for a prolonged downturn four years old. Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) reports that the BLS adds 48,000 new jobs per month to the payroll employment report based on the birth/death model even though the economy has not come out of the deep recession. In other words, over the course of a year, the birth/death model adds about 580,000 jobs to the reported jobs numbers. End of year benchmark revisions quietly take the nonexistent jobs out of the totals, but these revisions do not receive headlines and pass largely unnoticed. ..."
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/02/06/do-the-job-numbers-really-add-up/
One can always count on a "glass half empty" response at CD, even when the news is (mildly) positive.
Yes, clearly this is not enough jobs. And clearly it's not enough well-paying jobs. And no, it doesn't make up for the massive jobs hole that this country has dug for itself. Tell us something we don't know.
But, for god's sake, it is a positive trend in the right direction. It's enough of a trend to befuddle the Fox News crowd (which wants nothing more than to see Obama fail), and enough of a trend to apparently cheer even the grouchiest of professional economists (judging by the media commentary today).
A lot of these jobs are in the manufacturing sector, which results in a much better economic payoff than jobs the "service sector", which typically include a lot of low-paid hamburger-flipping ops and such.
Yes, Obama has been a supreme disappointment in countless areas, and his kowtowing to the corporate swine on Wall Street is a national embarrassment. But his administration does deserve some credit for helping dodge the bullet of what could have easily become another Great Depression. Our auto industry has survived and largely bounced back (thanks to federal loans), our troops are no longer fighting in Iraq and our bloated military budget will (finally!) begin getting pared down, and the push is on for a "Buffet Tax" on American millionaires to help pay down the federal deficit.
Is that enough? Of course not. But anything that pisses off the conservative right always cheers me, at least a little. Face it, even if Nader or Kucinich were president today, they wouldn't be able to accomplish much in terms of federal spending and taxing priorities, given the current crop of assholes in control of Congress. In the short term (while we're trying to fix the longer-term mess of corporate financing of our elections), we should try to get rid of the current crop of assholes in control of Congress ... both Repub and Dem.
You sure do lap up the happy talk considering they have been braying about "green shoots" and turning the corner" for the duration--while nothing has changed--the casinos are still open--no significant structural changes or regulation. Obama pushes more NAFTA-type trade bills as vehicles for creating jobs.
Since campaigns are gearing up, it is essential to rally the crowd--it is all so predictable.
Obama who campaigned against the Iraq war, basically picked up where Bush left off, expanded the mess in Afghanistan and now is being led into Iran. The auto industry survived on the backs of the Unions, from whom concessions were demanded--while at the same time Obama defended the bonuses of his Wall St "savvy businessmen", claiming their contracts were "sacrosanct" .
That is the thing with Obama defenders and apologists--every "reform" they point to or accomplishment is so pathetic it leaves Obama nothing to run on other than comparisons to and blame of the Right.
"Pissing off the conservative right" is of absolutely no value, and besides they are not "pissed off."
You are no doubt correct that it does not matter who is in the White House. Of course you do think it matters, and think we all should. That is one on the many blatant contradictions in your pitch here.
There is always an excuse, and the popular one now for Democratic party apologists is to blame Congress. Never mind that the administration had a Democratic Congress, and did nothing with that advantage and instead pursued some sort of "bipartisan" idiocy that was doomed to fail and that betrayed those who voted for and campaigned for the administration. Never mind that it is this Democratic party administration that totally destroyed the hard won Democratic party majorities on Congress, after a historic shift in public sentiment away from the Religious Right and Reaganomics. The President set about reviving and restoring both - in direct contradiction to the wishes of those he bamboozled into voting for him with a clever and deceptive marketing campaign that took lying to unprecedented levels of sophistication and depravity - and that is why the Republican party has enjoyed a resurgence.
By his actions you shall know him........
Obama is the manchurian candidate - for the republicans..... If one focuses on his actions and not his words.........
Geez, not even the actions. He's been repeatedly honest stretching back to the '08 campiagn about promising more war in Asia, about forking a trillion to Wall St,, about total service to Israel, about Reagan having been a great president.
The only way Obama has been a "Manchurian candidate" has been through Democrats stubbornly denying reality.
For the most part what you say is true. However, in the cases of organized Labor, immigrant groups, and GLBT rights groups, among others, the candidate made unambiguous and unqualified promises that were not kept by the office holder.
Here's your solution. Good luck.
http://www.alternet.org/newsandviews/article/771218/roseanne_barr_wants_green_party%27s_presidential_nomination/#paragraph6
" it is a positive trend in the right direction"
I'm abundantly sure that once the numbers are analyzed they will be revealed to be the empty BS they always are. For one thing new unemployment numbers ALWAYS assume a "natural" cycle of hiring regardless of whether or not that has actually occured. Only an idiot (or a supporter of whoever is in the White House - or is that redundant?) believes the new numbers at face value.
"But his administration does deserve some credit for helping dodge the bullet of what could have easily become another Great Depression."
You have GOT to be fucking kidding me. 20% real unemployment, housing foreclosures apace, NO prosecutions of Wall St criminals, TRILLION dollar handouts to said criminals, ramping up the national debt, gutting Social Security, AWOL on Wisconsin, multiple NAFTA-style free trade deals to export jobs, attempting to force people to buy private health insurance, ZERO action on restoring regulations to Wall St from the last depression era, ZERO attempt to repeal Taft-Hartley, gutting the post office and cutting thousands more union jobs there, the list goes on and on ... and you're a satisfied customer?
"our troops are no longer fighting in Iraq "
#1 - BULLSHIT! The US has TENS OF THOUSANDS of troops and "contractors" in Iraq as well as multiple bases and security agency personnel and control of Iraq's airspace and sea access. #2 - Georgie W Bush signed the agreement for the mock withdrawal, Obama had nothing to do with that.
I assume Democrat penis tastes fantastic since so many of you can't type without it in your mouths. Tutti frutti, turkey dinner - I'm curious, what's it taste like..?
You're right. Even what looks like optimistic news is just a bunch of cooked numbers, it's all complete shit out there, U.S. citizens would not really have voted for any current politician if they were sufficiently enlightened, and there's no hope for the U.S. short of a massive revolution that we've been eagerly waiting for for at least 90 years. I was just fucking kidding you, in answer to your question.
So I'll just go slit my wrists right now, and promise not to rile you up like that by suggesting it may not all be shit. Sorry to upset you so much, dude -- from your reaction, it sounds like your blood pressure spiked about 30 points. My self-immolation should calm you down. Enjoy your angst. Or don't.
"Even what looks like optimistic news is just a bunch of cooked numbers..."
Yes, most of the commenters on here are correct, those ARE a bunch of cooked numbers. It doesn't look like you were kidding at all, it looks like you're asking why all of us ingrates aren't kissing Obama's ass.
I swear: does anybody actually READ posts here before they don their holy robes of self-righteous rage? This, dear acutalleftist, is what I said in my original post: [quote] Obama has been a supreme disappointment in countless areas, and his kowtowing to the corporate swine on Wall Street is a national embarrassment [end quote].
If that, for you, qualifies as "kissing ass", you've lived a disturbingly abused life. Apparently unable to distinguish pointed criticism from undying affection. I suggest professional help.
I'm sick to death of Democrat ass kisser apologists whining that every time someone demands basic accuracy and decency in evaluating your pal Barry Obama that it's "self-righteous."
You completely omitted your next kiss-ass sentence, at once inaccurate and pathetic: "But his administration does deserve some credit for helping dodge the bullet of what could have easily become another Great Depression. Our auto industry has survived and largely bounced back (thanks to federal loans), our troops are no longer fighting in Iraq and our bloated military budget will (finally!) begin getting pared down, and the push is on for a "Buffet Tax" on American millionaires to help pay down the federal deficit."
If you actually read my posts I responded directly to those points, and the substance of those issues YOU ARE STILL IGNORING.
This is a chart of unemployment during the Depression:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Unemployment_1910-1960.gif
At its worst it was just above 20%, and that's a pretty honest assessment, none of this Bureau of Labor Stats smoke and mirrors.
"When statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) adds the long-term discouraged, the US unemployment rate as of December 2010 was 22.4 per cent."
http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/01/10/spinning-unemployment-in-a-collapsing-empire/
For this you thank and congratulate Obama!
You know what the "push is on" for? The "push is on" to defund and kill Social Security. The "push is on" to suck up to Israel for attacking Iraq, The "push is on" to kill the post office and kill its unions. The "push is on" to crush teachers' unions. The "push is on" to avoid prosecuting any of the white collar criminals that Barry gave a trillion of our dollars to. Wake up.
Well said, Actualleftist.
or sucking his dick
>>But, for god's sake, it is a positive trend in the right direction. <<
No. It is not. Unemployment is increasing. Those unemployed who run out of unemployment benefits are no longer counted as unemployed. They simply disappear from the count. I have no way to prove this but I'd wager that for every "newly created job" at least two unemployed people are no longer counted as unemployed. As Mark Twain once put it, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Make believe manipulated numbers only the most gullible should believe.....
Ok - change gullible to democrat and it's an even more accurate statement......
Job creation is so great that we only need to borrow 1 trillion this year to add onto the federal debt.....
If people were actually getting jobs that paid a decent wage the debt wouldn't be SKYROCKETING.......
Shrub Bush dropped a nice 100% increase (6 to 12 trillion) in the Federal Debt level over 8 years and now Obama is set to destroy his record......
It's nothing to be proud of for Christ sakes...... But here they are - the dems proudly exclaiming the good news of manipulated falsified numbers.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/final-nail-todays-nfp-tragicomedy-record-surge-part-time-workers
Zimet's starting to squint real, REAL hard to find the good in the Blues' candidate.
Anyone wondering if these numbers are b.s. or not should keep this in mind:
Stats like this would take a career office worker laid-off two years ago whose unemployment insurance has run out and taken two crappy 20 hour a week jobs at local convenience stores -for half of what their UI checks were paying them- and turn them into "JOB GROWTH"!
That's before the real b.s. even begins.
Think what would happen if he started a business that hasn't made any money instead of taking two crappy jobs. Now he's not pseudo-growth, he's just DISAPPEARED.
Grain of salt?
There ain't enough grains of salt dissolved in the Dead Sea for this graph to be taken seriously. ;)
Don't be happy with the "jobs" chart until you see MILLIONS of jobs added in a QUARTER, the % of jobs in manufacturing double, the % of union jobs triple, the % of full-time to part time jobs reverse, the % of low-paid salary jobs cut in half, and the minimum wage rise to 100% of average living wage-nationally.
ALL of the above are required for demonstration of even a genuine "hopeful trend", let alone a real, honest-to-goodness, recovery.
2012 should be compared to 1933, not 1993.
A full-system shake-down and rebuild is needed now.
Charts and figures are wonderful just like comic books. They entertain you with some fiction but when you put the comic down and look out around you, you're always faced with actual reality.
Unemployment drops when the unemployed run out of unemployment insurance benefits. Out of sight out of mind.
In addition, even one hour of employment in a day takes that person/day off unemployment and out of the statistics. The unemployment statistics severely undercount those who have gone from full time to part time employment. But that does not help with the bills.
The statistics modeling is based on the older situation in which most employment was full time and unemployment was cyclical and reversible. One paycheck could allow a modest survival for a family That does not adequately consider today's conditions. Also missing are those who would work if they could find safe and affordable child care, which is mostly women. In today's economy with today's housing and medical costs, many families require two wage earners for survival.
I would like to see a list of the new jobs. This reminds me of a headline once in a local Brooklyn paper announcing the creation of hundreds of new jobs opening up at the Navy Yard. When I called, I found out that thousands had recently been laid off, and the new jobs were callbacks for some small percentage of those workers.
One truer way to measure unemployment % is (work) / (available work force). That is (number of hours worked in a week) / (number of those working or who want to work multiplied by 40 hours per week.)
The numbers don't add up! The following article http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/02/06/do-the-job-numbers-really-add-up/ by Paul Craig Roberts on counterpunch.org clearly illustrates that the numbers don't add up! We are basically being told this information to keep the sheep quiet and from straying from the herd (pick your choice - democrat or republican - party).
Direct quote from Mr. Roberts-
"As the adjusted data produce phantom jobs and employment, the BLS should headline the raw unadjusted data. With so many discouraged workers unable to find jobs, dropping discouraged workers out of the measure of unemployment seriously understates the true magnitude of the unemployment problem. If Americans were aware of the double-digit unemployment rate, would they be as tolerant of Washington’s multi-trillion dollar wars? Would Obama be facing a tougher re-election campaign? Would Republicans be pushing to reduce the federal budget deficit at the expense of the social safety net?
The phony data serve many interests, but not those of the American people."