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Keep Watch on the Hawks
US policy on Iran seems to be softening, but the world must stay vigilant to avert the threat of war
President Bush's decision to send William Burns, his third-ranking diplomat, to observe nuclear negotiations in Geneva with Iran, represents a long-overdue shift in American policy - underlined by plans revealed in yesterday's Guardian to re-establish a diplomatic presence in Tehran. Hitherto, the US had demanded that Iran must concede the main point of negotiations, namely suspension of its uranium enrichment programme, before talks begin. Iran has responded positively to negotiations, but ruled out the US precondition of suspension. The US still states that it will only enter into dialogue with Iran if it halts its enrichment programme.
Iran's nuclear plants are all under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has stressed consistently that there has not been any illicit diversion of declared nuclear material. Despite no evidence of a nuclear weaponisation programme, the US pressured the member states of the governor's board of the IAEA to report Iran's file to the UN security council in February 2006. Three rounds of resolutions and sanctions followed.
The Bush administration's policy towards Iran was inspired initially by its quick success in regime change in Iraq. It has pursued the dual strategy of demonising, isolating and pressuring Iran while trying to destabilise the country by covert operations in order to prepare the ground for a military attack.
However the hawks, led by Dick Cheney, have failed to make any headway. In December 2007, the National Intelligence Estimate reported with high confidence that Iran does not have a military nuclear programme, disarming the principal allegation against it. For a time, a concerted attempt was made to create a casus belli by accusing Iran of arming the militants who are "killing our soldiers" in Iraq. But no real evidence for this charge was ever produced, the Iraqi government refuted it and the allegations have not been trumpeted by the US in recent months.
In Iran itself, the US pressures have backfired and radicalised large sections of the population - including those opposed to the government - in defence of Iran's rights under the non-proliferation treaty. According to public opinion surveys, the overwhelming majority has supported the government in resisting pressure to halt enrichment.
These failures of US policy coincide with the high sensitivity of the price of oil, the background to a recent report by the Rand Corporation for the American air force warning against any military attack or inflaming ethnic tensions and proposing reconciliation with Tehran.
While the positive shift in policy is a setback for them, the hawks are by no means defeated. We have been in this position before. The US and Iran had three rounds of negotiations about stability in Iraq last year, which only led to a new hype in US accusations against Iran. On Monday, Israeli military adviser Amos Gilad said that Israel is preparing to attack Iran if diplomacy fails, and that the US would not veto it. Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh has warned of an October surprise - a massive US bombing campaign in Iran - triggered by a "Gulf of Tonkin" incident to boost McCain's electoral chances if Obama maintains his lead in the opinion polls.
In this volatile state, the international peace movement should multiply its efforts to avert war in the remaining six months of Bush's term. The resolution in Congress for what amounts to a naval blockade of Iran is, in effect, an act of war. The EU and the international community should call for the military option to be ruled out, and for the US to drop its precondition and enter into direct, comprehensive negotiations with Iran.
Abbas Edalat is the founder of the Campaign Against Sanctions and Military Intervention in Iran.
© Guardian News and Media Limited 2008
Comments
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56 Comments so far
Show AllBush was dumb and treasonous to start the Iraq war.
The surge was dumb because it continued the Iraq war.
McCain is dumb to think that this occupation
war is ever going to lead to anything positive.
All the Americans who have supported this war at any point or minute share responsibility for gratuitous deaths, maimings, displacements, vast destruction sometimes even to themselves but always to Iraq and the United States.
Obama is dumb if he tries for anything less than complete withdrawal of our American presence in Iraq. (And, despite good advice to the contrary, continues to goad Iran.)
Russia has been dumb from time to time but was very shrewd when it withdrew from Afghanistan lock, stock and barrel.
There's nothing quite like being a vassal to another state. Yeah, it's us, the United States, loyal servant to Israel, where we torpedo our own interests to pursue those of Israel. AIPAC has used American freedom to ensnare our news and political establishments in the contradiction that is the state of Israel, and to subordinate all policies to those of Israel. You can blame your congressional representative or senators, but they all must kiss the Israeli ring to be elected, or out-of-state money pours in to induce the voting public to elect someone else. It's too bad that Jewish Americans have done so much to advance the cause of progressive policies in our country, because they will be among the first scapegoated when our country's service to Israel becomes too burdensome and backfires. It only seems like our population is too lazy or stupid to recognize this problem, but it won't take too much in the way of hard times to make people get around to figuring out what's been going on.
We are relying on the judgment of Laura Bush and Lynne Cheney to keep the hawks on a leash until Barack and Michelle can be elected. The ladies know that starting another unpredictable military mess on the way out of office is undignified, even if their men don't know.
You are seeing the Bush administration now starting to try to out-Obama Obama on diplomacy, with the hope they can convince silly voters that McCain would somehow be best to "carry on the good work started by wise Republicans."
The way to "watch the hawks" is to un-elect them and astonish the world that Americans woke up and elected new voices and a new mindset.
Being a cynic at heart I believe the US envolvement in talks with Iran, in Geneva, are a charade so the administration can then say it tried diplomacy and can now bomb.
deadly force in the hands of children is always a risk of the highest order.
"Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh has warned of an October surprise - a massive US bombing campaign in Iran - triggered by a "Gulf of Tonkin" incident to boost McCain's electoral chances if Obama maintains his lead in the opinion polls."
Gee, maybe it's time for dems, libs, and progs to play the repugs game. You know - how they re-registered as a dem to vote for Hillary. If we all start making out like Obama is super unpopular with us now because of his changed policies, we can prevent that October suprise, and maybe keep Iranians from getting killed like the Iraquis did by our government's lunacy.
Check recent articles by Ritter and McGovern.
I also do not trust this ploy.
Beware the Ides of August!!!!!!
timebiter,
"Being a cynic at heart I believe the US envolvement in talks with Iran, in Geneva, are a charade so the administration can then say it tried diplomacy and can now bomb."
Unfortunatley, your heart is in the right place. It worked for them in Iraq . . . .
Thanks, wilmoor, for bringing up something important.
Another good way for there to not be an "October surprise" with Iran is for liberals everywhere to talk it up with great anticipation---so it becomes so completely anticipated and roundly criticized as SICK election strategy that the GOP nixes the whole idea.
shadowdancer - we have certainly lost the pollen path. After America dies we can go an a vision quest to find our way anew.
In this volatile state, the international peace movement should multiply its efforts to avert war in the remaining six months of Bush's term.
Well, yes. But "the international peace movement" would be deluding itself if it believes that it can relax thereafter. There will be no significant change in U.S. policies and militarism regardless of which of the two establishment candidates replaces Bush.
Read Professor Corey Walker's cogent analysis of the "fundamentally flawed logic that has governed and continues to reign supreme in American foreign policy circles." Brief excerpt:
In several significant ways, the foreign policy differences between the two candidates can best be understood as two competing visions for the enhancement and perpetuation of American imperialism.
[...]
Whether war in Iraq or Afghanistan, whether the will to win or the dedication to lead, whether little discussion or considered diplomacy, this presidential election cycle reminds us that while the bellicose imperialism of the Bush regime is entering its final days, American imperialism will continue, albeit with a different set of actors.
The Rand corporation. They haven't even completed their homework assignments on Iraq yet. Don't be under the foolish assumption regime change is complete in Iraq. As soon as the number crunching determines an appropriate window of opportunity, the cruise missiles will fly towards Tehran. Don't worry about anything, go vote or go shopping.
The current Republican subservience to Israel really has nothing to do with anybody's "security" - Israel's, America's or Shangri-La's. It has nothing to do with any regard for Jews. It is all about the religious fanaticism of "Muscular Christianity", with George Wanker Bush as the present steroid shooting protagonist of this lethal nonsense. Since these suckers actually believe that the end of the world is at hand, according to their interpretation of the Bible which turns that book into a collection of fevered and poorly written pulp magazine stories, the ruin of the United States, or even the entire world, doesn't mean jack to them. Soon they, and they alone, will be sitting at the right hand of God while the rest of us will ride the express elevator to Hell and be buried up to our nostrils in the Devil's shit.
Today's NYTimes Morris article, carefully written for apparent fairness by a biased jewish journalist, tries to manipulate US into attacking Iran, though we don't want to.
He basically says that Israel will definitely attack Iran's nuclear installations in the coming months because they are afraid of Iran's "daily" threats against it and that the mullahs are basically nuts and will accept their nuclear annihilation to wipe Israel off the map.
He goes on to suggest that if Israel does not wipe out Iran's nuke program with conventional weapons when it attacks, it will have to turn to its nuclear weapons to achieve this. This would then destroy the Middle East (so America should attack Iran to get it right the first time because we have the weaponry to do it, obviating the need for Israel to use its nukes against Iran).
Bush finally did one thing right by sending an envoy to Iran if only to pre-empt Obama (who thinks it's a good idea to talk to our enemies) and help McCain win. (If we ever get tired of Republican treachery and conservative's playing politics with our lives and welfare we will use the referendum to govern ourselves direct democratically.)
It seems that as Dayan suggested, if Israel is attacked (or attacks first), this time they will take the rest of the world with them.
i have been reading articles about iran and nuclear tech' for months now and have yet to read anything about the real reasons that the hawks oppose the iranian program. please, anyone who has thoughts on this please share them.
The heavy, dark, oil soaked days of Kali Yuga are coming to an end.
In their wake will rise Dwapara Yuga, the age of energy, of which we are already immersed. Kali Yuga might be likened to the current crop of movies in theaters, think the Hulk, Hellboy, or any assortment of super villains smashing their way though the physical plane. Their self destructive last throes will damage us all on their way down.
This is necessary folks, just like the fall of Rome had to happen. I'm sorry its coming. I mourn for the generations that are to inherit this place, my daughter and her daughter. We have lived in a golden age these last 60 years, relative peace, wide spread prosperity, cures for illness's, long lives, cheap energy, awakening consciousness, spiritual freedom in Western Societies, the ability to travel and see much of this spectacular planet.
Many have taken it for granted. Many more think it will last.
But alas, we don't choose its fate, we little ones, we ride the dog until its time for its flea bath.
Get ready.
"The Bush administration's policy towards Iran was inspired initially by its quick success in regime change in Iraq."
I agree with Bane Richter, "They haven't even completed their homework assignments on Iraq yet. Don't be under the foolish assumption regime change is complete in Iraq."
The U.S. quickly murdered someone, but that has not resulted in a permanent, stable government or situation in Iraq.
Except for your suggestion that CheneyOilCo is not really calling the shots, I would agree with your assessment... but also retain an opinion of greater attack inevitability in the near future than you imply.
I would like to believe that this so-called switch to diplomacy is more than a charade. Given 7+ years of history and the fact that Burns has no real authority... and has also been instructed to "shut up", I am leaning hard towards the belief that it is just one more step in the direction of coordinated military action against Iran.
I'll be watching closely and happy if proven wrong. Thanks.
jjpeter
the bath is us.
kloro: Basically it's a matter of Iranian potential for opposing imperial power and ambitions in the region. As we've seen elsewhere, it's not nearly so easy to impose one's will on any state that possesses a significant capacity for self-defence. And retalliatory nuclear capabilities can be a real "show stopper" in that context. In addition, Israel tends to regard its exclusive nuclear capabilities as a trump card for regional dominance, although they would frame it as a survival issue.
Arvy,
what is your opinion of those who say that iran's program is for peaceful purposes and that this has been verified by numerous respected agencies?
We should never fall for the same mistaken framing as was used to justify Bush's attack on Iraq which was, "Iraq has WMD and is therefore an imminent threat to the U.S."
Of course this was laughable nonsense but it was never challenged.
Now they are using the same crap. "Iran cannot be allowed to acquire nukes because if they do they will destroy the U.S. and Israel. It is complete and laughable nonsense again but again no one is challenging it. A blowhard in Iran yelling it into the wind is not proof that Iran will attack Israel and thereby commit suicide when 100 of Israel's nukes hit Iran. The Persians have not lasted 3000 years by being that stupid.
So why the threats? OIL!!!!!!!!
kloro: I have no special insights beyond what the IAEA has reported in that regard. I do think, however, that the Iranians would have to be much more stupid than I believe they are if they were not at least considering the implications for their own safety. One need only look at their current geostrategic position in relation to ongoing imperial invasions and occupations on either side.
Perhaps they are completely sincere about their intentions but find some advantage in keeping their declared enemies guessing. If that's the case, I certainly wouldn't blame them.
"The Bush administration's policy towards Iran was inspired initially by its quick success in regime change in Iraq."
Five years and counting is quick?
Arvy, it is true that Iran is a powerful country, but it is more important that they have a lot of oil. The US supported a coup against their elected leader in 1953, and supported a dictator from then until 1979, when he was overthrown. Jimmy Carter let him into the US, pissing off the Iranians, some of whom took hostages, Reagan made a deal to supply them arms in return for holding the hostages until after the 1980 election, which Carter lost. \
Reagan then encouraged Saddam Hussein to attack Iran and supplied Iraq with WMDs and intelligence and actual military support at the end, meanwhile selling arms to Iran through Israel, and taking the money to support terrorist death squads in Nicaragua.
But, after 9-11, everything changed and the US suddenly started doing bad things.
Apparently, PNAC really thought the US could attack Iran, and get their hands on that oil again. But there has been a major push back by the US military and parts of the ruling class, so I guess they'll try to just buy their way back into Iranian oil.
By the way, the US was really pushing nuclear power in the 70s, and Bechtel thought it was going to get its hands on that fountain of dollars from Iran to build nuclear power plants. Boy, were they disappointed when that deal fell through.
That's when the US and Iran were good.
greenerthanthou: I don't think there's any mutual exclusivity in our perspectives.
I certainly agree that petro-resources (or, more precisely, control thereof) is clearly the underlying factor in geopolitical strategies throughout the entire Middle East. Iran just happens to occupy a specially high position in terms of its potential for disrupting "best-laid schemes o' mice an' men" and is thus a target of some particular interest and concern in that broader context.
It doesn't help either, of course, that it once "held America hostage" and currently insists on all of its rights under the non-proliferation treaty that it (unlike Israel) signed and (unlike the U.S.) continues to fulfill so far as we know.
Mordechai, LOL. So true. Truth is stranger than fiction; you can't make this stuff up. These idiots in charge will happily end the world, kill millions of innocent people over greed and then think they're heading straight to Heaven.
I'm glad to see you don't refer to him as "President" Bush since he won neither of the two elections.
Ohio Attorneys to Assert RICO Claim Against Karl Rove for Orchestrating Theft of 2004 Election
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3640006
kloro, the real reason that the hawks oppose the Iranian program is apt to be very shallow like the hawks themselves.
My thought is Ahkmanijad did well enough on American TV when he visited here that he enraged them.
What the hawks are really about is finding people in the world to demonize. War is just their first response to anybody they can't understand.
And since they can't understand very much beyond their own bank accounts, that group comprises a lot of people.
The highest response in the hawk pantheon, however, is the "irreverent" putdown of any perceived enemy.
Maybe we should take their hits-- to divert them from war.
"TAKE HITS FROM TWITS!"
Why is the US threatening Iran about the nuclear weapons that they do not have and are doing nothing about the frightening and dangerous situation in Pakastan, that does have nuclear bombs? Why aren't we threatening Israel and India and China who all have nuclear weapons?
greenerthanthou July 18th, 2008 4:25 pm
Arvy July 18th, 2008 4:49 pm
I have to go with you guys on this one.
And its highly unlikely there will be an attack on Iran at this point.
What would be so bad about Iran getting Nukes? MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction)worked during the cold war. It seems to be working between India and Pakistan. Military parity might not be such a bad idea.
Bush, though a lame duck, is still dangerous. Like John Donne's flea, he does all the harm he can.
This may be off the subject somewhat but I have a suggestion to confuse the pollsters, if you get a pollster on the phone listen very carefully to the directions of the questions being asked, if the bent seems to be towards McCain, continue to answer the questions in thoughtful positive manner, about 1/2 through hang up in the middle of the poll...The polling company cannot count the poll, but the McCain campaign still has to pay for the time to try to get the poll completed, waste their money, confuse the polls, Its a Progessive Operation Chaos!!! Plus its fun to screw with the Republican heads!!!!
The Rethuglican smear machine is starting up with posters saying "Obama, the abortion candidate." (like they REALLY care about lives)
To even things out, let's have posters with pictures of John McCain flying above civilians' villages in Vietnam saying "McCain, the bomb-dropping baby killer candidate."
*** i tried to put in a link here but it is being censored... so to see what i was trying to share with you all... youtube "the long kiss goodnight" and look for the segment referring to a "fund raiser" *****
*** and for the 3rd time... man i really hate being censored!!! **** here's what i was trying to share *** sorry if its going to have to come in pieces until i can figure out exactly what it is that they are trying to censor... we'll call this experiement common dreams 1a....
*****************************
hollywood was trying to tell us a long time ago... and no one seemed to have connected the dots... whats happening in iraq... and whats inevitable in iran... has been foretold... by hollywood no less... lol
an october surprise is coming because mccain is too much of a boob to get elected on his own merit... i cant watch him speak for more then a few mins before i want to find a cliff
we've been set up... quite some time ago as a matter of fact... and now we're waking up to it... is it too late? who's to say... maybe the m*y*ns had a correct prediction of things to come... nothing after twenty twelve... hmmmm?
this whole thing in the US about gas prices... all of it has been manufactured so that congress would pretend to let go of the ban on drilling... and call it the will of the people
ah i found it... so lets see if i can re-write it so that i could be accpeted by the censorship program here...
the credit/mortgage/bank crisis ... the mysterious food crisis that is tomato...yes no maybe born... the loss of economy/jobs and the fall of the dollar... all manufactured so that the amercian ppl would willingly accept the N Amer can union... and once that happens "their" vision will have been all but complete....
then they take over s america for its resources.... continue in the mid east so that isr*el can control the region and we can continue to rape its resources and the N ameri can union... the euro union... the afri can union and the china/russia union can all split the pie and we'll just be the slaves under the whip turning the wheel until they dont think they have a need for us anymore... and then more bad things will happen to alot of ppl...
we've been warned... hollywood has been doing a fine job of making us believe its all pretend... but sadly its all real... hiding the truth in plain sight!
Ironically, the peace activists are being watched for illegal behavior that might jeapardize the security of our nation, while the hawks are acting in secret, and making decisions that truly have jeapardized our national security. We must call for The Congress to remember what their role is, or send them packing home. While taking our own roles as citizens seriously and continuing to question the actions of our government, no matter which party is in power.
There's nothing the Bushies have done in the Middle East that doesn't convince me they're clinically homicidal sociopaths. Oil at $140 and gas at $4 still too cheap? Attacking Iran ought to fix that. A couple of supertankers sitting on the shallow bottom of the Straits of Hormuz and burning merrily away for a week or so would make great TV. How about $300 oil and $10 gas? Then watch things REALLY get interesting here in America.
Iran wants nukes? Well, yeah. The Pakistanis, Israelis, Indians and Chinese all have nukes. Israel regularly makes implied threats to use theirs. We've occupied Iraq to Iran's west & Afghanistan to their east. Hardly a week goes by without some prominent American politician threatening them. Given our history of causing misery for Iranians over the past half century, and our recent aggressive encirclement of their country, who can blame them?
It's exactly as if China had occupied Mexico and Canada, while openly threatening to attack us for objecting.
I'm left hoping that if CheneyBushCo tries to order an attack on Iran, the US military might refuse to do it.
Wouldn't that be some October surprise!
that would be a fantastic October surprise... unfortunately i think too many in the military have been drinking the Kool-Aid packaged by Halliburton
I tried to put in a link here but it is being censored… so to see what i was trying to share with you all… youtube the long kiss goodnight and look for the segment referring to a fund raiser.
________________________________
peter
Dream warrior, I have read from other posters that posts that are too long are sometimes removed. You use a lot of space because you separate every phrase or sentence with with ... instead of , or . I think the grammar police, not the censorship police, may be what is causing your posting difficulties.
"US to drop its precondition and enter into direct, comprehensive negotiations with Iran"
There is NOTHING for the US to negotiate with Iran. Instead, the US should shut the hell up and get the hell out of the Middle East, NOW.
What is written below was my second attempt, this will be my third.
___________________
I just attempted to submit a comment with the word/phrase that I believed was responsible for the necessity of having to break up my initial post up there. I was fully prepared to apologize for the way I type and vowed to slow down and use my punctuation. I believe it's the thoughts that are important, not that they are grammatically perfect but for the sake of being able to participate in these discussions, I was willing to capitulate and state that I was wrong. I just submitted this posted, without my usual [...] and also included the phrase that I believed was being censored and sadly, I was proven right. The post didn't take. It had nothing to do with the length of my post as it was smaller then this one and I used proper punctuation. The phrase that I used in the previous post [that did not make it] and the one above, where I had to break it up to narrow down what was causing the post not to grab, was:
The No r th Amer i can Union
(I had to separate the spelling so it would post for my third attempt, it wasn't separated before)
Now this is the second time I'm going to attempt to make a post with this phrase with proper punctuation and if it doesn't take then I'm sorry but will have nothing else to go on besides the proof of this experiment that some words/phrases are being censored (I've had this problem with other word/phrases as well and would be happy to share).
If for some reason this should actually post, then again, I will apologize and will move on and attempt to keep my posts more concise and punctuated properly.
___________________
So that is my experiment. But you don't need to take my word for it. Try it yourself. Try typing No r th Amer i can Union as it should read and see if it will post for you. Who knows, maybe it's just me. lol *winks*
dream warrior, yep you are right. This site doesn't allow NAU to be typed out.
"...the hawks are by no means defeated."
-all they are saying,...is give war a chance