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As Bush Policy Crumbles, Allies Pick Up the Pieces
WASHINGTON - "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
As the White House agenda for the Middle East continues to unravel, events over the past 24 hours seem to suggest that U.S. allies in the region are determined to construct a new edifice based on diplomacy, with or without Washington's help.
In spite of the President George W. Bush administration's efforts to isolate and defeat "terrorists and radicals" -- as Bush himself put it in a controversial speech to the Israeli Knesset last week -- U.S.-backed local actors are engaging precisely with those "forces of evil".
Indeed, engagement -- known as "appeasement" in the neo-conservative lexicon -- is bursting out all over the Middle East; in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, Iraq, and between two nations that have existed in a state of "no war, no peace" for more than 40 years -- Israel and Syria.
For the first time since President Bush took office, some of the pieces for peace may finally be falling into place.
"It's not the case that anti-U.S. forces are 'taking over' the Middle East," according to Helena Cobban, a Middle East analyst at the Washington-based Friends Committee on National Legislation. "But it is the case that Washington, which has long succeeded in exercising complete control over all the region's 'peace diplomacy', has now lost the ability to do that."
One former Bush administration official agreed. "Most of this is happening essentially because of people's fear of our lack of leadership and our fecklessness in dealing with a hornet's nest that we stirred up in the first place," said retired Col. Lawrence B. Wilkerson, who served as chief of staff to former Secretary of State Colin Powell.
After an outburst of deadly sectarian clashes last week threatened to push Lebanon into a second civil war, the Hezbollah-led opposition and U.S.-backed government finally reached an agreement Wednesday to end the political impasse that has paralysed the country for the past 18 months.
The Qatari-mediated deal resolves -- at least temporarily -- a dispute over the electoral law and paves the way for the election of Lebanese Army chief Michel Suleiman to the presidency. U.S. and Saudi-backed factions also conceded to the long-held opposition demand for veto power in the cabinet.
The Bush administration, which has long tended to substitute strong rhetoric for coherent strategy in Lebanon, sought Wednesday to put the Doha talks in a positive light. Even though the deal will give Hezbollah -- which Washington considers a terrorist organisation -- more influence and power in the government, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said she viewed the agreement as "a positive step", and called upon all Lebanese leaders to implement the agreement.
Israel and Syria also announced Wednesday that they were engaged in Turkish-mediated negotiations for a comprehensive peace treaty, the first time in eight years such talks have occurred. In contrast to the news out of Lebanon, the Bush administration, which has long resisted any engagement of Syria by its allies, offered a more tepid response.
"What we hope is that this is a forum to address various concerns that we all share about Syria," said White House spokeswoman Dana Perino, citing Syria's alleged support for Hamas and Hezbollah. "We believe it could help us to further isolate Iran..."
But evidence that Iran can be effectively isolated was belied not only by the clear gains made by Hezbollah at the Doha talks but also by events this week in Baghdad where the Iraqi army encountered no resistance in taking control of Sadr City.
The peaceful entry of the Iraqi troops was reportedly made possible by a secret agreement between Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and the man Washington blames for the deaths of hundreds of U.S. soldiers in Iraq, none other than Iran's Quds Force commander, Brig. Gen. Qassem Soleimani. The deal explicitly barred U.S. ground forces from entering the area, which has been the main stronghold of anti-occupation Shi'a leader Moqtada al-Sadr.
After meeting with Soleimani, Talabani told the Christian Science Monitor that Iran's Quds Force leader was willing to "send a small team" to "discuss any issue" with the U.S., an offer which appears to reflect Iran's perception that it can now deal with the U.S. from a position of strength.
Meanwhile, there is growing speculation that an Egyptian mediated ceasefire between Israel and another group of "extremists and radicals" supported by Iran -- Hamas -- is imminent. The Gaza Strip was plunged into a humanitarian crisis following the Hamas takeover in June 2007. Since then, Palestinian militants and Israeli forces traded rocket attacks and retaliatory raids, triggering a U.S.-backed economic blockade and continued isolation.
The U.S. and Israeli strategy of isolating Hamas suffered another blow when France confirmed Monday that it had been in contact with the leadership of Hamas, another breach by a U.S. ally of Bush's policy of isolating groups linked to Iran.
Indeed, the events of the last several days appear to have confirmed that Washington's strategy, to the extent that it was coherent, if not simple-minded, has pushed the region to the brink. Recognising that, local actors and U.S. allies are finding ways to reach agreement in spite -- if not in defiance -- of White House wishes.
"If you look at the Lebanon deal, Syria-Israeli resumption, Egyptian mediation of a potential ceasefire, either this all got the U.S. green light, and it's a major reversal, or it hasn't, and it's a rather major slap in the face," said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator and fellow at the Washington-based New America Foundation.
"I think it shows U.S. weakness rather than a turnaround in the U.S. position," Levy told IPS.
Some analysts were prepared to give Bush more credit.
"Maybe the really good news out of all this is that whether [the U.S.] played a positive or constructive role, it's pretty clear that they haven't tried to prevent it," said Gary Sick, an Iran expert at Columbia University who served in the White House under former Presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.
© 2008 Inter Press Service
18 Comments so far
Show Allwait a minute...
ya mean you CAN'T run a country on spin, PR campaigns and photo-ops?
whodathunkit
Come Again?
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
The cause of this catastrophy and America's downfall can be seen in any mirror except by Cheerleading Cowboy Vampires.
Mr. Sick is surely disengenuous.
How do we know that the Bushcos did not try to prevent any of this?
Turkish press has been talking for weeks about being intermediator. Long before the Bush visit.
I see a very long middle finger finally being given to our glorious plan. Unless this was the plan all along - get everyone so mad and frustrated with insane illogical statements and posturing, as in Knesset last week, that they unite (Bush did say he was uniter way back when) and take matters into their own hands to make peace.
Seems to me that nations such as Israel and Syria who are having talks and keeping them at first secret are not helping the larger process. We should all be talking to both friends and enemies continuously and the existence of the talks should never be hidden. Doing so merely implies that citizens "can't handle the truth" and are to be kept in states of anger, denial and ignorance.
It's always true that leaders emerge from unexpected places. President Bush (Jr) long ago abdicated the role of leader of the "free" world, so it's no surprise that men and women of statemanship are filling that role. Frankly, I suspect that most of the world is a bit tired of US leadership, and this is a very positive sign for the world in general, as well as the US.
I hate to sound like an old broken phonograph record, and I know he was a fictitious character, but I must again remind you of the words of Michael Corleone, "Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer". It might appear obvious that the U. S. is running out of friends.
I hate to sound like an old broken phonograph record, and I know he was a fictitious character, but I must again remind you of the words of Michael Corleone, "Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer". It might appear obvious that the U. S. is running out of friends.
According to The Times of London in an interview Ariel Sharon is quoted as "demanding that Bush invade Iran soon after the cakewalk into Iraq". The catastrophes in Iraq especially as well as in Afghanistan were concoted by neocons whose expertise was academic, whose prime motivations were to help Israel expand its territory to comply with socalled Biblical directives.
Its not only Bush's policy that crumbled from 2000/2008. The standing and impact the US has had since the end of WWII is now on a downhill slope accelerated by decisions made by the same chickenhawk neocons. Decisions that contributed to the Government of the USA committing criminal acts of invading and occupying a sovereign nation. Almost identical to the reasoning Hitler gave for invading Poland.
Its hard to conceive that the promoted present threats [ by the likes of Kristol, Podhoretz, Lieberman and other neocons] are that some barefooted Taliban fighters in Afghanistan; a neighborhood chieftain in Baghdad whose domain will be completely encircled with a 10' wall similar tot he walls that Israel has around Gaza who also happen to be another major threat [ and whose worst nightmare is the election of John MCain] and a number of Alqueda members in parts of Somalia demand that America be in a 100 year war.
Thus the threats to the US according to the neocons are;- a) two groups of people in two compounds or prisons one controlled by Israel and the other under the control of Gen. Petraeous. b) a local militia named Hezbollah in Lebanon and a militia called AlQueda and those barefooted Talibans in Afghanistan, The cost aside from human terms is around US $ 3/4 trillion and to top it off the US is excluded from participating from a group it used to dictate too not too long ago.
So much for allowing the foreign policy of the 300 million citizens who call the USA home to be made by individuals whose principal loyalty to the US is questionable at best. Leaving one to conclude that that Corleone gumba knew where of he spoke.
Keep dancing Georgie; your place in history is indeed secure, right beside Nero.
Since the US - Israeli axis of peace process (spelled evil) has been counterproductive and has lead to nothing else but war and more war, no one will miss it.
There have been other US presidents who were less than perfect. Some may have excelled Bush in poor mental hygiene, poor verbal skills, or in a tenuousness regarding contact with reality (one Ronald Reagan comes to mind).
I challenge anyone looking at that photo to nominate a candidate who exceeds George in sheer goofiness.
I sincerely hope that all parties involved in negotiations will have success in their efforts, then we can watch this administration stand right up and take credit for any and all worthwhile accomplishments, take the compliments and add a few footnotes to their legacies.
Akhavi and Lobe, got it wrong the terrorists are Israel and the U.S.
Hezbollah and Hamas are the only fighters that are keeping the Zionists and their American stooges from taking over the M.E.
What do ya know, Peace thru appeasement!
Obviously Bush isn't doing it, so somebodys got to!
Namaste
I wonder how John McCain feels about "preconditions" these days? Get ready for another flip-flop from McCain.
Out of chaos comes peace? In our dreams...
Israel is now talkin with Syria and Syria is looking for a comprehensive peace deal for the Middle East and everybody knows that when the Bush Gang is gone things can begin to change.
Most countries are laying the groundwork for a better future.
I'll Call it the Obama effect.
Now lets hear from the cynics, Please.
How ironic would it be that Dubya, Cheney, & Co. wind up being the agents that degrade American power (this is rhetorical question)? It had long been an article of faith that US involvement was necessary for almost any major diplomatic undertaking. Now thanks the Bush crime family's many failings, other countries are forced to act independently of Washington and are unexpectedly liberated by it. I wonder what the re-write of The Project for the New American Century will have to say after their poster boy messed things up so profoundly.